Trading Down
April 4th, 2023
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
Joe is not usually a trade-down kind of guy. If you want a guy, go get him, don’t invite disaster by waiting.
Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht has hit home runs trading down and looked swindled after trading down.
Back in 2018, Licht dealt away the No. 7 overall pick with Buffalo to trade back. The Bucs got three draft picks in return and two became solid starters on a Super Bowl defense and both are still with the Bucs, Vita Vea and Carlton Davis.
That’s a home run.
Then last year the Bucs traded back with Jacksonville from the 27th pick to the first pick in the second round. The Bucs then selected defensive tackle Logan Hall and with one of the picks and later drafted tight end Cade Otton with Jacksonville’s picks.
Hall was a disappointment. Joe swears he got worse as the season grew older. The Bucs last season adamantly denied Hall hit the rookie wall, so if that is so, it’s a bad sign that Hall didn’t get better.
Of course, it’s irresponsible to write off a guy after just one season. But this demonstrates that trading back isn’t always smart. This year, it should be.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles likes to say the team is reloading, not rebuilding. Then why not consider trading down in the first round, stocking up on picks and lettting Licht work his usual magic in the draft?
That’s what follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN suggests the Bucs should do.
What they should do: Trade down.
… now they’re dealing with what happens after a team goes all-in. The Bucs are in messy cap shape and have a quarterback room composed of Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. If there’s any team that could spring a surprise and unexpectedly move up to the top five for a passer, this would seem to be the one.
If they don’t move up for a quarterback, the Bucs need to land cost-controlled talent to fill out their roster. There’s just not any meaningful depth left at most positions. Lacking a fourth-round pick, even a small move down to add an extra midround selection or two would be helpful for Todd Bowles’ team. With the Chargers (No. 21), Ravens (No. 22), Giants (No. 25) and Bills (No. 27) all coming up and potentially in the market for a receiver in the first round, Tampa Bay could be in a position to leverage its pick with one of those teams.
Joe is actually OK with this. Think about it: Joe just has a hunch if someone is stupid enough to draft Anthony Richardson in the top-10, then Hendon Hooker isn’t lasting until the second round.
The Bucs possibly could trade down, add a couple of picks and still nab Hooker. Or a left tackle. Win-win.
Right now with the Bucs squeezed under the salary cap, the Bucs need talented rookies to contribute. It doesn’t get any cheaper than them So yeah, Joe’s good with trading down. This year.
April 4th, 2023 at 4:26 am
The ultimate conundrum for Licht. By trading down from #27 to #33 last year, Bucs got Hall & Otton (as a freebie). What we missed on though was an opportunity to draft 3 excellent young players: LB Devin Lloyd (#27), OG Cole Strange (#29), and my favorite, DE George Karlaftis (#30). All 3 had excellent rookie years. Still, we ended up with Cade Otton who should be a Buc stalwart for years to come, and we were able to package the other pick we got from Jax to move up & grab Luke Goedeke.
The key to whether that whole swap was worth it IMO is Logan Hall. I know we drafted him to be mostly a 3-Technique, but I still can’t see him that far inside on a consistent basis. Maybe our new defensive coach George Edwards can get more out of him this year.
April 4th, 2023 at 4:52 am
So draft a 25 year old QB coming off knee surgery, who played in a spread offense! Who transferred from VT because he couldn’t win the job in a none spread offense hmm no thanks!
April 4th, 2023 at 5:10 am
Maybe trade down a couple of spots for an extra pick.
April 4th, 2023 at 5:17 am
Depends on how deep the positions are that you are targeting the most. If your priority is TE and there’s only a couple worth the flier then go get him at #19 but if there are 20 quality TE’s available then trading down can be affective while still getting a quality TE later. That goes for all positions you consider the most important. The Bucs need a lot of talent to fill spots but if the draft is a weak draft then you shouldn’t screw around with settling on quantity but rather on quality.
April 4th, 2023 at 5:20 am
I’d go with 25 or 27….could still land D Washington there….one of them might want Bijan.
April 4th, 2023 at 5:21 am
Rand Says:
April 4th, 2023 at 5:17 am
Depends on how deep the positions are that you are targeting the most. If your priority is TE and there’s only a couple worth the flier then go get him at #19 but if there are 20 quality TE’s available then trading down can be affective while still getting a quality TE later. That goes for all positions you consider the most important. The Bucs need a lot of talent to fill spots but if the draft is a weak draft then you shouldn’t screw around with settling on quantity but rather on quality.
^^^^^^^
The Bucs won’t draft a TE in the 1st Round. They were burned by OJ Howard and learned from that mistake.
April 4th, 2023 at 5:29 am
MadMax Says:
April 4th, 2023 at 5:20 am
I’d go with 25 or 27….could still land D Washington there….one of them might want Bijan.
^^^^^^^
If Licht even thought of taking a TE in the 1st Round he should be drug tested.
April 4th, 2023 at 5:30 am
Joe in Michigan
just used it as an example
April 4th, 2023 at 6:12 am
DE or T with first 2 picks. You can’t get quality long-term starters at these positions in later rounds. There’s a reason these are the highest paid positions after QB.
Quality S, TE and CB can all be found in mid and later rounds.
April 4th, 2023 at 6:29 am
Hooker looks like the next Ryan Griffin, albeit with an actual arm instead of a noodle. We are in need of a 10 year bench warmer it is true so I say make it happen.
April 4th, 2023 at 6:41 am
QB is not a necessity. We can pickup a cheap 3rd string FA. Wait till next season when there will be a bountiful of quality QB’s to choose from if Mayfield or Trask doesn’t work out
April 4th, 2023 at 6:50 am
Trading down is USUALLY the best move. Either gather up pick next year in premium spots or you increase the number of chances to get a hit. “Go get him,” presumes a loss of picks. This is rarely a good idea, especially with a tight cap situation.
Caveat: all picks after round 4 should be traded away for 3s and 4s the following year. Those picks are almost always garbage — with rare exception.
April 4th, 2023 at 6:59 am
Rand Says:
April 4th, 2023 at 5:30 am
Joe in Michigan
just used it as an example
^^^^^^
Oh, okay.
April 4th, 2023 at 6:59 am
I like trading down…especially this year when we have many needs…..it stands to reason that a payer or two will still be there.
OT, S, Edge, DT, TE, CB, RB WR
But, you need a trading partner.
April 4th, 2023 at 7:39 am
Jason Licht has made a total of 17 trades using just draft picks in his time as a Bucs GM and if there were ever a draft where all that experience moving around the board could be of use, 2023 is that year. We’ve got 9 draft picks, I’d be totally fine walking out of this draft with 6 or 7 players if it means dealing/losing some of those day 3 picks to pick those 6/7 players from higher up on our draft board.
April 4th, 2023 at 8:05 am
trade down makes the most sense
April 4th, 2023 at 8:36 am
I am not opposed to trading down if there is not a good match at our draft position for the Bucs’ needs. DR shared a few examples of players we passed on last year when we traded down. Time will tell if the Bucs made the right choice. I would hate to pass up a promising starter at a need position in order to add more bodies and hope some pan out. I have a strong feeling Licht will trade out of the first to pick up a day two pick and trade some of our lower picks to move and get a fourth rounder or more. I see him going after affordable quality with the hope that we get some surprises, such a Whitehead, Otten, or Nelson….as just three examples. Essentially, our DB’s and Lavonte David were all good value picks. I’m optimistic we will have a solid draft.
April 4th, 2023 at 8:37 am
As an aside, today is my lucky day: no moderation for a phantom reason!!!!!
April 4th, 2023 at 8:44 am
“So draft a 25 year old QB coming off knee surgery, who played in a spread offense! Who transferred from VT because he couldn’t win the job in a none spread offense hmm no thanks!”
Tell me you haven’t watched Hendon Hooker without telling me you haven’t watched Hendon Hooker. A torn ACL in November, and somehow since the start of the top 30 visits he’s met with 5 team(Bucs being visit #1) and is steadily raising his draft projection in the middle of rehabbing his ACL. It’s as if, the people who actually scout and communicate with draftees for a living on a day to day basis know something some rando on JBF doesn’t know.
April 4th, 2023 at 8:48 am
NO! the Joe-Joes got it wrong! TRADE UP AND SELCT A KICKER! That’s what a good GM does.
April 4th, 2023 at 8:55 am
@joeinmich, do you think im worried about trying to convince you? Maybe you’re the one on drugs since youre still stuck on a failed draft pick we had….someone completely different from Washington….oh, because he was a TE too, duh ok, i get it now, what was i thinking pshhhh!
April 4th, 2023 at 9:17 am
I think reading down is the best way to reload. It’s not like there’s only one guy they’d want with the first pick. They need o line help and probably two safeties and inside outside linebackers not to mention another running back and tight end. If you have no cap space the draft is the only way to fill out the roster
April 4th, 2023 at 9:34 am
There are only 4 or 5 offensive tackles worth drafting in the first round. The Bucs HAVE to draft an OT in round one.
If we get to pick #19 and there is only 1 quality OT left we need to pull the trigger and take him.
However if we are at pick #19 and there are 2 or 3 OTs left then maybe a trade down will work out ok.
I am all for adding extra picks this draft but not if we miss out on a starting Left Tackle.
April 4th, 2023 at 9:47 am
If we can land Hendon Hooker I’m in!
April 4th, 2023 at 10:11 am
Barn-ill reminds me of Dumbanik. Whatever he says, do the opposite for better results.
April 4th, 2023 at 10:17 am
If all 3 of the top OT’s are gone by 19th pick, then by all means trade down. We got a lot of holes to fill on this team.
April 4th, 2023 at 10:42 am
I believe Logan hall should take right end job..he’s not physically dominate yet hopefully a year of strength training helps him..it didn’t help Tryon..
Both those guys gotta find that switch or find a first class ticket out the nfl.
Better be studying the best whose doing it and done it..
Better be in your playbook and swim moves.
Better be in the gym and eating correctly.
Better be playing like your life is on the line because working for ups doesn’t get youna mansion.
This is the chance to change your life and put your name in the history book’s.
Kill all distraction and fight with all your heart..
The microscope is on both them and the clock is ticking.
April 4th, 2023 at 11:12 am
If our first pick is not OT, then a crime will be committed.
April 4th, 2023 at 11:13 am
We have plenty of picks this year…I would prefer to package later picks to move up to mid-draft.
But I trust Jason Licht. He’ll get it done.
April 4th, 2023 at 11:15 am
Marine Buc Says
“There are only 4 or 5 offensive tackles worth drafting in the first round. The Bucs HAVE to draft an OT in round one.”
Agreed
April 4th, 2023 at 11:17 am
I would rather NOT trade down and pick the RIGHT OT, then trade down and pick the WRONG OT.
Just because certain players are ranked with first round grades it doesn’t mean they should be ranked that way. This is an important draft…it’s not about quantity, it’s about quality.
April 4th, 2023 at 12:10 pm
As I have said in a few posts now re the draft, Bucs need half their picks to go to OL/DL/EDGE… dont care when in the draft but they at some pt need to find future OT, OG/C, DE and edge rushers. FIND THE BEST PLAYERS. B/c they have so many holes in roster I would like to see them trade back in 1st round to secure another pick or two UNLESS a great talent falls in their lap at 19.
April 4th, 2023 at 12:34 pm
I’m pretty much always in favour of trading down assuming you can find a partner. I’m a numbers guy so having more swings at a bit of a lower chance overall statistically will almost always work out better than less swings at a bit higher chance. In the long run, averaging things out of course. You can still strike gols and get a freak that develops in mid rounds, may e just not quite as day 1 ready. I’d also prefer to have a couple star with an overall well rounded team of very good players and lots of depth than to have a few superstars, but some spotty starters in places and zero depth
April 4th, 2023 at 7:40 pm
There should be a good tackle available. Jomes or Wright late in the first. Id be okay to trade down based on the assessed risk of these players still being available. With many holes to fill, I think this could be a good strategy unless the 19th is someone they cant pass up.
April 5th, 2023 at 7:52 am
I have a hard time grasping trade down let Licht work his magic. The trade down issue is okay but Licht work his magic please don’t make me laugh Hall, Tyron, Godeke, Darden, Trask, Vaughn and god help us more kickers.