Tennessee Pass Rusher Projected In Second Round
April 10th, 2023
Tennessee pass rusher Byron Young.
Now this is an interesting idea.
The crowd over at Football Outsiders hatched some sort of program that projects the production of pass rushers for their first five NFL seasons.
Nathan Forster, by way of BSPN, has an article on what the top pass rushers in this month’s draft might do early in their careers. And picks comps to present-day NFL players.
The guy who caught Joe’s eyes was Football Outsiders‘ No. 7 pass rushing prospect, Bryon Young of Tennesee (geez, no wonder Tennessee had a good team this year with so many players Joe is typing about).
The two comps Football Outsiders has for Young are Cliff Avril and Jason Pierre-Paul. Football Outsiders projects Young ought to have 19.5 sacks in his first five seasons.
But here is what got Joe’s attention: Football Outsiders believes Young will be the 50th pick in the draft in less than three weeks. And guess who picks at No. 50? Yup, the Bucs!
Young is a similar prospect to Smith, but his profile involves a lot of small tradeoffs that would have put him ahead of Smith if not for Smith’s superior projected draft position.
Like Smith, Young did not have outstanding sack production. Smith recorded only 12.5 sacks in 23 games with the Volunteers. However, unlike Smith, he had only two seasons of Division I FBS football, as his first two years were in junior college. Accordingly, Young’s production comes from a small sample size while he was relatively inexperienced, suggesting that he might have room to grow.
Well, JPP was great with the Bucs, and Avril hovered around nine sacks, give or take two, just about every year.
Joe would take that sort of production from a second-round pick. Especially after Forster typed this is not a good draft for pass rushers.
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April 10th, 2023 at 12:57 am
Who is “Smith” in these quotes Joe?
April 10th, 2023 at 1:33 am
Nolan Smith OLB Georgia
April 10th, 2023 at 1:46 am
The tackles seem to handle him, consistently driving him past the QB. I don’t see him beating the tackles consistently. MAny of these sacks are stunts. I’m not impressed by this footage.
April 10th, 2023 at 2:00 am
Although he doesn’t overpower these OT’s his speed does seem to allow him to turn the corner which is a plus.
April 10th, 2023 at 2:23 am
SB:
Nolan Smith.
April 10th, 2023 at 3:15 am
This draft is going to be fun for me this year. I feel more knowledgeable than ever thanks to THE Draft Guru, plus writeups on this wonderful site and my own research. Cannot wait for draft night.
April 10th, 2023 at 3:39 am
Another project at DL. Ugh. No. Rather get a solid player at another position of need. Who is going to lead this DL? Mr. Part-time player Vita Vea?
Our DL looks suspect at best. No telling how Shaq comes back after an achilles tear.
April 10th, 2023 at 3:41 am
Have to re-sign Will Gholston and/or Akiem Hicks.
April 10th, 2023 at 3:59 am
Here we go with the stat geek stuff again.
Im not brilliant with math but if you throw out the first year projected stats and say he gets none. Entirely possible for a 1st year pass rusher. It then averages out to about 5 per season. Ummm Joe thats nothing to write home about
April 10th, 2023 at 4:04 am
BTW comparing this dude to a guy like JPP is absurd! BSPN strikes again!
April 10th, 2023 at 5:43 am
IF THE BUCS DRAFT SMITH AT 19 MY HEAD WILL EXPLODE!
how is this guy projected so high and considered and edge rusher with
like no sack production in college?
all of the sudden with harder competition he will start getting sacks?
maybe a replacement for David at ILB if the do take him?
April 10th, 2023 at 8:26 am
This time of the year is always intriguing. Bucs could go in so many directions. Will be interesting to see which players they end up drafting.
April 10th, 2023 at 9:10 am
Byron Young at 6’3 245lb not the same as JPP as he is 6’5 278lb with a 6’9″ wingspan. Avril is 6’3 260lb maybe a good comparison but not JPP.
April 10th, 2023 at 9:30 am
@ATL: kinda hard to “turn the corner” around NFL OT’s, at least magnitudes harder than college OT’s.
He reminds me of Gaines Adams.
April 10th, 2023 at 10:51 am
If Nolan Smith is there, We should grab him. But something tells me he will not last that long. He will be long gone by our 2nd pick.
April 10th, 2023 at 11:23 am
He’s got speed. Looks a lot like JTS. Nice bookends if they can figure it out.