(Computer) Model: Bijan Robinson Isn’t Getting Past The Bucs
April 26th, 2023
Texas RB Bijan Robinson.
Sometimes Joe gets asked why Joe loathes the PFF tribe but instead slobbers over Football Outsiders. Both sites are stat-geeky places.
Well, Joe personally knows some Football Outsiders guys including the head cook. Really intelligent, savvy dudes.
The PFF tribe? They are slaves to numbers and are apt at ignoring common sense. The Football Outsiders gang? Several times Joe has read and heard them say, “The numbers say (insert conclusion) but that just doesn’t make any sense.”
A journalism professor Joe had in college would call that “critical thinking.”
So being a slave to stats? Here is a good example. Seth Walder at BSPN, a guy who shats stats and never met a number he didn’t like, found himself in a dilemma. His computer program that spits out draft results told Walder one thing about Texas running back Bijan Robinson.
Walder’s common sense conclusion told him something else.
So what conclusion did Walder come to? What the stats said, not reason.
Basically, Walder types that the computer says Robinson, the star running back in the draft, isn’t getting past the Bucs.
If we look at Robinson’s range of outcomes, one spot that stands out is No. 10, which the Philadelphia Eagles currently hold. The Draft Day Predictor gives the Texas running back more than a 12% chance to be selected at that spot, while no other spot registers in double digits. The Eagles have a need at running back, and the No. 10 pick certainly has been a popular mock draft destination for him.
Personally, I have a hard time seeing it happen. The Eagles are one of the most analytically inclined organizations, and one of the foremost tenets of football analytics is that running back is a non-premium position — and it’s tough to use such a high pick on a non-premium position. That being said, the model says what it says, and I have a lot of trust in it.
So if not No. 10, where else? There’s no one spot that stands out, but I think the consistently high chance he’s selected somewhere between Nos. 10 and 19, with a 5% or greater chance at each of those positions, is pretty interesting. So if you want Robinson, the model is confident that he probably will not last into the 20s. In fact, there’s about an 80% chance he’ll be gone before pick No. 19.
So Walder would trust junk science over his own head? #Sad.
Joe finds it cool that this model Walder hatched believes the Bucs are in play for Robinson.
Hey, that’s one way to turn around the league’s worst rushing attack! Draft a rare running back/slot receiver.
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April 26th, 2023 at 5:59 am
Common sense tells me that when you have a bunch of bums who can not open any running lanes I don’t care if you have Barry sanders back there . He might break one great run in a game and get stuffed the other 99 % . But if you have maulers who open holes , you could have a decent back and win another of games . Man I tell you tho , Robinson would be nice !
April 26th, 2023 at 6:24 am
Well … he fits the explosive player NEED… I’d be OK with it especially with the uncertainty at Quarterback
April 26th, 2023 at 7:01 am
@Hail2dabucs,
60% of our OL were new faces last year.
It takes at least half a season to develop chemistry with OL.
The Bengals revamped their OL for Joe Burrow and that OL struggled harder than a fat kid at a candy store for a big chunk of last season. Joe Burrow looked nothing like a SB QB at the start of last year and for a big chunk of the year.
April 26th, 2023 at 7:08 am
TBBF would be ecstatic with Robinson…….pound the rock….
April 26th, 2023 at 7:41 am
I can’t see him still sitting there when the Bucs pick but if he is they better grab him.
April 26th, 2023 at 7:47 am
Rd. 1 Bijan Robinson RB
Rd. 2 (Trade w/Jets to 43) Anton Harrison T
Rd. 3 Cody Mauch G
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense will rock!!
April 26th, 2023 at 8:19 am
If he’s that good he won’t make it out of top 10.
April 26th, 2023 at 8:34 am
Robinson would be tough to pass. If he’s gone go, OL. OL makes good QB’s & RB’s.
April 26th, 2023 at 8:37 am
Pass rush?
April 26th, 2023 at 8:38 am
I’m a believer in trench warfare and I’m of the ilk that OLB is of greater concern than OT, atm, but the more I read and watch of Bijan, it would be hard to pass on him. Joe, do you side gig selling those Fords on lot?
April 26th, 2023 at 9:11 am
I’m ok with it as long as Bucs address OT. LB with next several picks
April 26th, 2023 at 10:22 am
If he can run behind the Bucs oline,
Then hes the gratest back in NFL history.
Go ahead. Draft him. Be’ll be called a bust by week 6
April 26th, 2023 at 11:51 am
If he is there at 19………………..hard to not take him. Same with Hooker, although the simulators have him dropping into the second round.
April 26th, 2023 at 12:21 pm
No way he is there at 19
Dream On!
April 26th, 2023 at 12:28 pm
Remember when we passed on adrian peterson to draft gaines adams??? If we dont get a qb, grabbing bijan would be a power move that would pump up the fan base.
April 26th, 2023 at 1:01 pm
If he’s there, take him.
April 26th, 2023 at 1:16 pm
Agreed, no way Robinson is there at 19. He will be long gone by then. If by a miracle he is, then we should pounce on him. Running back may not be a premium position but he is no ordinary running back. He is a rare commodity that doesn’t come around too often. WE MUST STOP TRYING TO REACH FOR A PARTICULAR NEED AND ALWAYS DRAFT BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. Over time reaching for need will fill your roster with much less talented players. Another special player who plays a non-premium position that should be considered at 19 is Brian Branch. I’d rather have an elite safety/nickelback than a middle of the pack OT.
April 26th, 2023 at 2:07 pm
Partially because the Bucs already had a first round pick of a RB on the roster. Caddy.
April 26th, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Remember when we had a W finger eating 1st rd QB and passed on QB Josh Allen ugh
April 26th, 2023 at 3:50 pm
Drafting the best player available is a farce. You always look at need and compare it with your draft board. If the player is on your draft board at draft spot and you have a need, then you draft him. If a player is super high on your board, you can draft him or trade out of the spot.
April 26th, 2023 at 4:03 pm
Bijan will unfortunately be long gone by the 19th pick, just like all the top OL talent.
Bucs are truly in “no man’s land” this year in the 1st round based on their needs.
Only way we land a key new piece to the team is if we somehow trade up.
April 26th, 2023 at 4:11 pm
Stinnie, Goedeke, Leverette, and Hainsey.
5 below average starting NFL guards.
But Licht is loyal. They will compete for starting roles.
And they will provide average depth.
At least they all have experience.
They are all good backups.
But not NFL starters.
We will struggle to run the ball again this season.
April 27th, 2023 at 1:20 pm
The combined trio of Adrian Peterson, Derrick Henry, and Ezekiel Elliott has a grand total of how many rings? Exactly zero. And, many other top-notch RBs could be added to that trio to make it an octet of zero-ring players. Non-premium position indeed! Great defense, great offensive line, and a good year by Baker Mayfield might give the Bucs another trophy. Go Bucs!