Bucs Could Trade Up If…
April 16th, 2023
Bucs GM Jason Licht.
So what will the Bucs do when the draft kicks off a week from Thursday night?
Will they burn a draft pick to trade up? Will they package disgruntled linebacker Devin White (yes, Joe knows Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht stated he doesn’t intend to)?
Will Licht wait for the draft to come to him?
Jenna Laine of ESPN correctly points out that Licht is not much of a trade-up kind of guy, at least in the first round. He did that once and hit the jackpot with Tristan Wirfs.
Licht has traded down in the first round. Laine, however, thinks Licht could trade up for a quarterback or left tackle.
If quarterback Hendon Hooker (Tennessee) is available — it’s been tough to forecast exactly where he’ll land because of a torn ACL — I could see that, or if there was a run on offensive tackles similar to 2020, when they landed Tristan Wirfs. But don’t expect them to move far — maybe one or two spots — because they have too many needs to fill.
That sort of makes sense. If a team in the middle or Round 1 is trading up just one or two spots in, the ransom is only a third-day draft pick (and the original first-round slot).
Joe guesses it’s better to trade up a spot or two for a desired left tackle instead of pulling a rib cage muscle reaching for a guy.
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April 16th, 2023 at 2:59 am
I have a hard time believing there will be that big a run on OTs that early in the draft. But the reasoning by less than responsible Jenna is of course a crap shoot.
BTW Joes if they draft Any QB in the 1st I’ll eat my hat! But you and Jenna keep on pushing for it LOL
April 16th, 2023 at 6:18 am
Hooker in round 1…. picking a 3rd round talent in round 1 will get many people fired.
April 16th, 2023 at 6:23 am
With Mayfield and questions about Trask still out there I don’t believe they are on the market for a quarterback. Next year there will be a lot of good quarterbacks in the draft not only just Williams and Maye.
April 16th, 2023 at 6:28 am
Per: Jason Licht
April 16th, 2023 at 7:25 am
Joe:
Speaking of moving up or down, I’m having a hard time finding sources to explain the point system of trading up or down. Would you mind or consider dropping a story before the draft about how this works? I’m eager to learn more about it.
Thanks in advance! – D
April 16th, 2023 at 7:58 am
D-Rok – search “NFL Draft trade chart”.
This is the classic “Jimmy Johnson” model that most everybody uses for reference. Many teams are said to use an updated model – but this gives a basis for value of each pick that is easy to understand.
The Bucs pick #19 in the 1st round is worth 875 value points.
If Licht wanted to move up 2 spots to #17 (that pick is worth 950 points) – there’s a difference of 75 value points – which is the equivalent of a mid 4th round pick (which we don’t have).
A 5th and a 6th (which we do have) would be about the same value as a mid 4th.
If Licht decided to trade down in the 1st round – say 8 spots from #19 down to #27 – the difference is 195 value points which is the equivalent of a mid 3rd round pick.
April 16th, 2023 at 8:13 am
I don’t think this is the year to go for a QB……QB needy teams will draft 4 or 5 this year making next year easier.
We have Mayfield & Trask and we need to see what we have before expending a high pick on a QB.
Let’s pick the best player available at need at 19……OT, Edge, TE, RB, S, LB CB
April 16th, 2023 at 8:14 am
Oh if we traded up that wouldn’t go well with Stan. He “loves it” when we trade back to the second round and draft stiffs like Logan Hall.
April 16th, 2023 at 8:18 am
Actually it would be more like a 5th and two 6th round picks for the Bucs to move up 2 spots in the 1st round this year…..
GMs don’t get very excited about 6th round picks when it comes to trading down in the 1st round I don’t think – so it might be hard to get a deal done to move up 2 spots with our lack of a 4th…..
April 16th, 2023 at 8:43 am
I don’t understand why anyone would trade up this year for a QB..next years draft is loaded , just ask the used var guy draft guru
April 16th, 2023 at 9:09 am
Instead of wasting draft capital on an iffy player like Hooker in the first round I’d rather see them draft a solid prospect who could be a diamond in the rough in maybe the 3rd round like Jaren Hall. To me Hall has way more upside in the 3rd round than injury recovering Hooker in the 1st round.
April 16th, 2023 at 9:14 am
We must trade down.
We need an extra 3rd round pick.
Hopefully we can trade Devin White for a 2nd round pick.
And draft his replacement.
I am still calling for the Bucs to only play David on 3rd down and passing downs.
We should play 5 or 6 DBs and 1 LB on 3rd down.
I want a futuristic defense.
6 DB’s on 3rd down!
1 LB!
Devin White sucks at pass coverage!
April 16th, 2023 at 9:20 am
There’s little for linebackers in this draft, Devin will just have to take his $11.7 million and drive a used car this year
April 16th, 2023 at 9:33 am
@Pickgrin,
Thanks for the link and I’ll check it out. And thanks for the explanation…now that you mention it, I do remember Miller and Kirwan recently on Sirius XM discussing the Johnson system, and I wasn’t sure who they were referring to, and now I realize it’s Jimmy’s johnson and not my own. (LOL!).
April 16th, 2023 at 10:03 am
@ TBBF
I hope Hooker is picked in the top 15 or so. That would help insure a higher quality OT will still be available at pick #19…
However BPA at the positions you listed would be fine – we have many roster slots to fill so just about any position will work.
April 16th, 2023 at 10:08 am
Trade up out of day 3 entirely. Maybe keep a 5th or sixth rounder, but it’d be interesting to see if Licht ends up trying to get more selection on day 2 from rounds 2-4. We’ve got 2 day 2 picks right now, ending day 2 with any deal that can get us 1-2 more players would be a marginal draft win imo depending on the selections of course.
April 16th, 2023 at 11:10 am
We’re not trading up….get over it…too many holes….
Well unless Carter is sitting there at 16-18…now THAT I would trade up for
April 16th, 2023 at 11:46 am
Trade diva White and a couple of 6th round picks for the Steelers 32nd pick then we will have some flexibility.
April 16th, 2023 at 12:01 pm
Allbuccedup Says:
April 16th, 2023 at 11:46 am
Trade diva White and a couple of 6th round picks for the Steelers 32nd pick then we will have some flexibility.
^^^^^^
The Steelers would have to be drunk AND high to do this.
April 16th, 2023 at 1:45 pm
I may be wrong, but I don’t see the Bucs using their later first round pick on a QB (Hooker or anyone else). O-line has to be the priority, and Licht is wisely playing it close to the vest. In the meantime, Licht is not going to badmouth any player, such as Hooker, because he wants teams to think that he is going to select “their” guy, and this gives him leverage for a trade down. If Licht can’t get the O-lineman that he wants, a one year deal with Donovan Smith might be in the cards, assuming that he’s available and healthy.
April 16th, 2023 at 2:13 pm
I hate the one or two spot trade-up. If you think you just have to have one player or another, you’re looking at it wrong, IMO. Of course, good organizations find players they can develop with late picks, rather than use late picks as throwaways to draft up for bigger names, etc.
April 16th, 2023 at 3:59 pm
TampaBaybucsfan I whole heartedly agree with you. This is jot the year to draft a qb. See what we have. We aren’t going to be great this year anyway. Let’s see what we have and if they both sh** the bed then we draft a qb in a loaded draft class next season. Hooker is not worth our first round pick when we have so many needs. Build a team so next year you can draft a qb who can jump right in for a team ready to win games! I want Robinson personally but will understand if they go for the trenches on either side with their first pick. They have to nail this pick this year. Can’t be wasted like last season was. Not a fan of drafting guys from small schools like Houston in the trenches they rarely if ever pan out in the NFL.
April 16th, 2023 at 4:26 pm
Dont need to pay high price for hooker
April 16th, 2023 at 4:54 pm
It would be great if Hooker went high in the first round along with Levis and Richardson, just pushes another quality position player down to us.
April 16th, 2023 at 6:16 pm
Those future picks you’re trading away are probably going to be at the very top of the round, so I’m not giving up a next years 3rd unless someone is really falling.
April 16th, 2023 at 7:22 pm
Trade white and the 19th pick to detroit for the 9th pick then take Jalen Carter .
Imagine Carter and Vea lined up next to each other .
Frightening . They would have the best D-line in the nfl if they did that .
April 16th, 2023 at 10:06 pm
Since one of the all time great NFL GM’s Bobby Beathard always tried to trade down for MORE picks to INCREASE his odds of success I get nervous about the cost of trading up.
I absolutely see no QB’s that excite me enough to even spend the 19th pick on much less trade up. Are their potential stars and maybe even a franchise QB out there…possibly but the odds are pretty long. Longer IMHO than either Mayfield or Trask being successful. We’ve already invested relatively high pick in the 2nd round and have gotten ZERO out of him so far. If he never gets a shot and the Bucs get nothing for him that is an absolute literal failure. Not blaming Licht you can’t win them all but I’d rather see Mayfield or Trask than a college QB.
I am open minded if Licht finds a great DL or OL or if White is involved in some kind of trade that involves swapping draft picks.
April 17th, 2023 at 11:14 am
DON’T TRADE UP
A good player that fills a hole will be there at 19. They need to keep their picks.