Todd Bowles And Playing It Safe
February 10th, 2023
Trusts his defense.
The numbers suggest Bucs coach Todd Bowles isn’t much of a gambler.
Joe is not knocking Bowles or praising him for that. It’s just an observation. But NextGen Stats suggest Bowles isn’t a big believer in going for it on fourth downs.
NextGen Stats is data pulled from sensors embedded into players’ equipment, balls, etc. And NextGen Stats can predict when it’s a wise move to go for it on fourth down. In those scenarios, Bowles is inclined to turn the game over to his punter or kicker.
Joe thinks all fans have seen Bowles try to use Bucs kicker Ryan Succop on 50-yard-plus field goals, probably out of his range. Succop is very reliable but not for long field goals.
Only seven teams elected to go for it on fourth downs less often than the Bucs when NextGen Stats data suggested it was a good move. Of those seven, three made the playoffs and one is playing on Super Bowl Sunday, the Chiefs.
If someone wants to really nitpick, of the 10 teams (including the Bucs) that most shied away from going for it on fourth downs when the numbers favored the offense, seven of those coaches are from the defensive side of the ball and three are from the offensive side.
Nick Sirianni has been aggressive on 4th down this season, going for it in 21 of 27 situations where the numbers suggest doing so by at least 1% in win probability.
Andy Reid has been more risk averse, going for it just 7 out of 26 times in these scenarios.#KCvsPHI | #SBLVII pic.twitter.com/xAECmm5zpz
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 8, 2023
February 10th, 2023 at 5:35 am
The Eagles at the top and the Chiefs at the bottom of this statistic. What does that tell you?
February 10th, 2023 at 6:10 am
He should take up painting or pottery
February 10th, 2023 at 6:13 am
From No Risk It, No Biscuit to a what if we fail mentality. We need a HC with some stones. Playing it safe is for losers.
February 10th, 2023 at 10:59 am
Bowles didn’t go for it on 2nd and short. Well, the failed OC never did and Bowles never made him. John Maddon used to say that 2nd and 1 or 2 was a “free down”. He said that’s when you should take shots downfield because if you fail, you’re probably going to make it on 3rd down.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:02 am
Bowles cleaner is a defensive guy, so he will always have and inflated opinion of his defense. He put it on them to win several games. and they failed.
Maybe it is because he doesn’t understand offenses? If so he has no reason to be a HC.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:10 am
You play to win – always…
Playing “not to lose” – is a loser mind set.
This is why I don’t normally like defensive coordinators as head coaches.
Plus – Bowles needs to improve his clock and game management if he is going to survive after 2023.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:17 am
Todd Bowles is your Surrender Punt champion! How inspiring.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:31 am
That Cleveland game really pissed me off. We could have won in regulation with three timeouts. Enen with our crally running game and crappy screen game we could have pulled off at least one good 20 yard run up the middle and called timeout. We even had that nice sideline catch almost in feild goal range but Bowlzo had already run almost all the time off the clock. That was unforgivable.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:34 am
Also, It’d be interesting to see the stats on “protecting a lead.” And where Bowles fits-in.
Anyone else get the feeling that Bowles started “protecting a lead” ridiculously early as the 3rd Qtr with, say, a mere 10 point lead?
It seemed as if the Buccaneers were Bowles-ordered to “pull-back”
Into zone defense, etc., so early that it was practically ensuring that the opposition would “catch-up.” And they did.
Like to see what the stats (if any available on this) say.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:34 am
I wonder if Carmada can kick the really long field goals???
February 10th, 2023 at 11:43 am
Face it Bowles is good defensive coordinator and a bad head coach this is a big mistake by ownership. His employment as the Bucs head coach is going to set this franchise back years.
February 10th, 2023 at 11:53 am
He’s just not a good HC
February 10th, 2023 at 12:00 pm
Lavonte isn’t even going to be on this team next season, so his comments in my mind are bizarre? Contend for what and no reason to think this team is reloading because of all the holes and FAs, but that they haven’t signed an OC is extremely telling and disappointing because no one wants to come here. To pay Dean CD money is ludacris and how did that pan out last season, but I guess they like to sign easily injured and brick for hands CBs. The rebuild needs to start ASAP and like I said the only one that I would not trade is Whirfs and I know fans want to see their favorite player retire as Bucs and not see that this team actually has some very tradable assets especially at the WR position along with a center. They missed on every FA signing last year and without money plan to reload 😳 That’s not only laughable, but criminal and stop blowing smoke up each Bucs fan arses and do the right thing because the quicker they blow it up the quicker they will be competitive!! JL needs to walk over to Amalie and sit with that organization so they can show him how to run a successful and competitive franchise going on 10 years
February 10th, 2023 at 12:01 pm
So…..we have “Riverboat Ron” & “Tugboat Todd”
February 10th, 2023 at 12:26 pm
Nobody wants to be the OC with this HC that’s the reason we don’t have one yet. Hope ownership don’t make him the OC along with HC and DC.
February 10th, 2023 at 12:27 pm
I am not making any negative comments about the Bucs or Bowles until mid season 23. There was clearly some in fighting going on with this team last year from what Arians said. This year Bowles should have his staff in place and there shouldn’t be any excuses, then I will criticize Bowles, the OC, players whom ever
February 10th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
Todd, are you listening? You’re the HEAD COACH!!!! Find someone with your style and hire them to be your defensive coordinator. You can get a young guy you can tutor.
Get a young fire breather for the offense, someone that’s a QB coach needing to step up into th OC job.
February 10th, 2023 at 1:20 pm
Bowles has 4 seasons with more losses than wins every yr .. He’s a Terrible HC. He’s arrogant & can’t lead.. He should be on the unemployment line.
February 10th, 2023 at 1:22 pm
Put Bowles in charge of the Glazer Family Foundation
We need a leader!
February 10th, 2023 at 1:31 pm
Todd “Scaredy Cat” Bowels!!!!
RIP no risk it no biscuit 🙏
February 10th, 2023 at 1:33 pm
I forget which game it was but it was relatively early in the game when Toad Bowls elected to kick a field goal from 54 yards. Everybody except the Toad knows Succop can’t hit anything over 50 yards. Stupid decision. Sick of this guy.
February 10th, 2023 at 1:36 pm
He’ll crash and burn next season just like he did this season. He had 2 weeks to prepare for Cleveland and basically 2 weeks to prepare for the playoff game against Dallas and these were 2 of the worst losses of the year. Terrible head coach. His team’s have zero enthusiasm. Zero fight. It’s gonna be a train wreck no matter what happens this off-season.
You can bet the mortgage on that one.
February 10th, 2023 at 1:46 pm
HA-HA-HA …’Todd, are you listening? You’re the HEAD COACH!!!! Find someone with your style and hire them to be your defensive coordinator.’
Agree 100% with your observation HA. There were several excellent DCs available who the Bucs should’ve looked at, but now they’re gone (Steve Wilks, the ex-Carolina HC just signed on to be the 49ers DC … he would’ve been a fantastic addition IMO). Bowles being dual-hatted hurts us BOTH offensively AND defensively. I’m convinced that’s why BA refused to call plays here (like he did back in Arizona).
February 10th, 2023 at 1:49 pm
Our 2022 offense couldn’t score at an EDM party with two pockets full of MDMA, we were barely the aggressor on that side of the ball and the offense averaged 8.2 ppg in 1st half over the course of the entire season. Meaning barely a TD & a FG in 30 minutes of football, that’s terrible.
February 10th, 2023 at 1:58 pm
Would any of you take the chance of picking up a yard on 4th down with the CRAP running game we had?
I don’t think Bowles will ever be a big time gambler on 4th down, but give him a good running game and he might be middle-of-the-pack on 4th down.
February 10th, 2023 at 2:09 pm
Bowles has been a head coach for 5 years. One with the bucs and four with the jets. Hes had a losing season in the last four think about that real hard Jason Licht.
February 10th, 2023 at 2:09 pm
TexasBuc 1976 … ‘Everybody except the Toad knows Succop can’t hit anything over 50 yards.’
So exactly WHY did they keep Succop on our roster in 2022 and pay him $4 MILLION … to do just ONE THING: Kick the friggin football … when supposedly everybody knew that he couldn’t hit diddly beyond 50 yards? WHY accept such mediocrity in a player with ONE PURPOSE on the team?
Yes he was 29-of-31 from 49 yards in. Whoopee. From 50 out, he was 2-of-7, giving him an overall 81.6% made on the season. Bucs cut Matt Gay after the 2019 season and signed Succop. Gay has now been with the Rams for 3 years. Last season his stats were 28-of-30 (which included 21-of-21 from inside the 50, and 7-of-9 from outside the 50) for an overall 93.3%, well over 10% BETTER than Succop. And oh ya, Gay is playing for a lot less ($2.5 mil) than what Succop is making.
And BTW, Succop would’ve been too expensive to cut last year (big CAP hit). This season I wouldn’t hesitate to release him & find a new kicker. His CAP hit if we keep him is $4.5 mil, but his Dead CAP is only $750,000, so we’d stand to save over $3.7 mil by releasing him (but then having to find a new kicker of course). Hmmm, Matt Gay is a free agent.
Now if we could just figure out a way to blame Todd Bowles for us keeping a dead-leg kicker last season, instead of JL & BA for bringing him on & keeping him on (because of his CAP hit?). Aahh, let’s blame Bowles anyways. We don’t have to say that it was his fault, just that we’re gonna blame him.
February 10th, 2023 at 2:30 pm
Yes hire a DC just like you so he can give up 60 more points in two playoff games. So he can lose by 39+ points to every team they faced over 500, so the DB’s can sit back 15yds in a soft zone preventing defending the underneath over the middle pass, so your captain LB can be bored in the 4th quarter of games. This guy is NOT good at anything and his record proves it!!!
February 10th, 2023 at 3:12 pm
Hey NE fan what’s Belacheats record without Brady? And how man playoff wins?
February 10th, 2023 at 3:12 pm
Many*
February 10th, 2023 at 3:17 pm
This Bowels Blowes. Toad is an embarrassment to other toads.
Failure until he’s fired.
February 10th, 2023 at 4:19 pm
Checks out.
What else would you expect from someone too scared to score?
February 10th, 2023 at 5:42 pm
Allbuccedup Says:
February 10th, 2023 at 2:09 pm
I’m pretty sure they thought about it plenty beforehand. They also felt he was handicapped by having a terrible front office that couldn’t draft to save their lives. He had nothing at QB and a roster depleted of talent. So, when they decided he was going to be Arians’ successor, they gave him a clean slate… And then all kinds of things happened this year (starting with Brady drama) that made the situation challenging, most notably an OC who couldn’t get the job done without Daddy Bruce hanging over his shoulder. So I’d say, Licht may also be looking at this as Bowles having his first real chance (being able to select his own coaches to begin with).
Guess what. We have Bowles in 2023. A lot of complainers and doubters on these threads wanna run him out of town. Personally, I’d like to see him succeed and I take no pleasure in sh!tting on the guy’s head like so many around here do.
February 10th, 2023 at 6:42 pm
And that was with the goat. Now we look forward to third down punts! Yay bowles!
February 10th, 2023 at 8:28 pm
Mike C, next season when your passing & moaning about this team I will comeback and let you know what time the Pat’s PO game is so you can tune in. Pat’s had the same record as the Bucs playing Miami, Buffalo and the Jets twice ALL better than any NFC South.team. They beat up on Cleveland, took GB to OT with a 2nd string QB, and missed the PO’s by one stupid play in a division far superior to the NFC. Will the Bucs even have a televised next season or can I only get them streaming or on the radio? Joke Coach, joke Team. Not the players fault.
February 10th, 2023 at 10:09 pm
He’s ass an unfortunately we are stuck with him for next year. Maybe we will all be proven wrong. I hope I am but the past and my eyes tell me other wise
February 11th, 2023 at 8:06 pm
Who dares, wins—motto of the SAS and many other special forces units world-wide. Essentially the same as “No risk it, no biscuit”. The new NFL demands agressiveness and risk-taking. Can’t do it? Get the eff out! Sayonara. Gone!