Overreaction
November 16th, 2022
Hope on two feet.
Yesterday Joe brought word that popular national radio and TV personality Adam Schein is not doing backflips over how the Bucs have played their past five quarters of ball.
Oh, Schein loved the winning ending to the Rams game and loved how the Bucs stomped the Seahawks in Munich. But Schein needs more before he’s a believer.
You can say the same for Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports. The NFL columnist believes the Bucs’ successful sample size is way too small to begin beating the contender drum.
To suggest otherwise, Kerr typed, is an overreaction.
The Buccaneers are Super Bowl contenders in the NFC
Overreaction or reality: OverreactionTampa Bay has a lot more to prove after getting back to .500 with a win over NFC West-leading Seattle in Germany. The Buccaneers have won two straight games and have a newfound commitment to the run game thanks to the emergence of Rachaad White.
Are the Buccaneers better than the Eagles, Vikings, and Cowboys right now? That’s to be determined, but any team with Tom Brady at quarterback can’t be ruled out. … … How far can Tampa Bay go in January? They’ll have an opportunity to boost their odds over the final seven games, but we can’t call them Super Bowl contenders yet.
Well, this is why Joe is convinced the Bucs weren’t sellers at the trade deadline when they were playing some of the worst Bucs ball this side of Stewart McClown and Ghost Johnson.
The NFC South is a trash division. You know it, Joe knows it and the Bucs’ braintrust sure a hell knows it. The Bucs won’t need 10 wins to win the division.
The Bucs have talent up and down the roster despite their 5-5 record. If the Bucs win the division, which secures a home playoff game to open the postseason, all bets are off with Tom Brady at quarterback.
Winning eight games could lock up this division; hopefully the Bucs win 10 or 11. So while in most years playing lousy ball and having only three more wins would be cause to stock up on draft picks, it could be good enough this year with Brady to do damage in the playoffs.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:57 am
If only we could all make a living giving useless, casual observations about what team might do well in the end.
November 16th, 2022 at 4:50 am
Yes, overreaction. They played the Seahawks, a streaky team on the rebuild, on a bad week for them. And still managed to screw up a good number of opportunities. The game would be a blowout otherwise.
The coaching and roster issues remain the key factors. Even with a bye week that will help them heal and regroup.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:13 am
Just keep our vets healthy and give our young guys experience. Win what needs to be won, dont over do it. And for God sakes never throw another pass to Brady and risk that injury!!!
I mean you could fake, since its on film now, he’ll draw a defender, but then throw to someone else….but dont put Brady in that kind of dilemma to be smacked down by a hard hitting safety going full speed.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:15 am
Overreaction? Reading the comments after our Sunday win I’d say that JBFers have taken exactly the opposite approach … err on the side of caution.
Bucs ran on 60% of our plays on Sunday. In the 9 games prior to that, we’d averaged 30%, so Sunday’s game was definitely out of character you might say. Yes we racked up 164 yards rushing on 38 runs (plus 6 kneeldowns for -3 yards) for a healthy 4.3 YPC average. BUT … the final result was more a result of persistence in sticking with the run game than anything else. Half of our rushing yardage (79 yards) came on 5 explosive plays of 10 yards or more (4 by White; 1 by Fournette). Thus on the vast majority of our runs (33) we only averaged 2.5 YPC.
Fortunately those shorter runs blended nicely with our passing attack. Bucs ran 4 times on 3rd down; made all 4 (all were short yardage situations); plus we also took 2 kneeldowns on 3rd downs. Bucs passed 9 times on 3rd down; made 6 of them (most were long yardage situations). Tells me that the OLine was doing its job & doing it well.
Our rushing & passing attacks complemented each other nicely against the Seahawks. The keys to victory IMO were our defense shutting Seattle down early in the game thus causing the them to lean more on the pass (Bucs led 14-0 at halftime), and our offense doing exceptionally well on 3rd down conversions (10-of-15 on the day). All that despite 2 turnovers, 1 of which led to a Seattle TD making the game a lot closer at the end than it really was.
So yes, cautiously optimistic it is for the rest of the way. Not gonna start beating the Super Bowl drum just yet. Maybe after our 3rd playoff victory?
November 16th, 2022 at 5:28 am
I have to disagree with Kerr, I would have to say an overreaction is that the Seahawks are a contender, somehow I suspect the Bucs just exposed them and they will fall back toward 8-9 or 9-8 by the end of the season though it does look like the NFC West might be won with such a record with SF only 5-4 and not all that spectacular themselves. Steele is right in that the Bucs should have put 35+ up on them just like the Saints did (39) and the ATL even put up 27 or 28 so 21 is nothing to brag about against that D. Anyhow, the way Dallas and Philly played this weekend shows that the whole NFC is streaky with the exception of the Vikes whose only loss is to Philly, so it sets up for a team just to enter the playoffs hot and run the table to get a shot at playing for the Lombardi trophy.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:29 am
Just really looking forward to what trick play Leftwich comes up with during the week off.
November 16th, 2022 at 5:29 am
^Yup, cautiously optimistic…especially with this coaching staff. Unless it was done on purpose just to get ready for the 2nd half of the season….explainable but unexplainable….too much to get into lol.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:22 am
DR – “Half of our rushing yardage (79 yards) came on 5 explosive plays of 10 yards or more (4 by White; 1 by Fournette).”
Yes, but don’t discount that. 1 good play is a fluke, but 5 shows something more is there. The adjustments we made (FINALLY) have early signs of working.
Oh and by the way, you did a superb job as always by finding these stats. Good stuff.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:36 am
We need more designed running plays for Brady
November 16th, 2022 at 7:37 am
The offense is still predictable, run on first and scramble from there. The secondary is still weak, hopefully Ryan can help. A healthy Gage and Jensen will surely help. Good coaching can help win games but bad coaching can take down a good team and IMHO that’s the biggest Bucs hurdle, bad coaching gets in the way.
November 16th, 2022 at 8:18 am
Jensen report??
November 16th, 2022 at 8:40 am
DungyDance … I think all good running teams know that the key to having an effective running attack is persistence. You’re exactly right, IF you can break 5 out of 38 for 79 yards you’ve had a good game running the ball. EVENTUALLY those shorter 1 & 2 yard runs will become 3 & 4 yard runs.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:32 am
Schein’s not wrong but most definitely is a d!ck with ears.
Keep Nick healthy at LG and Hicks safe from injury on D and maybe things won’t suck until vacuum is reached, as it’s been.
With Bowelswich, that’s a steep challenge.
Thank Tom for taking over practice.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:44 pm
The Bucs are ABSOLUTELY 100% in the Super Bowl hunt.
Are the Bucs better than PHI, MIN, and DAL?
YES!
In 2020, the Bucs had a horrible first half of the season. They go hot the second half and won the SB. Watch the Bucs do the same thing this year.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:14 pm
“Tampa Bay has a lot more to prove”
———-
Lets look back at the losses…
Green Bay – You’re starting Miller and Gage at WR. Enough said.
KC – The Chiefs are just the better team, at least in the regular season.
Pitt – 100% on Byron Leftwich being a world class idiot.
Carolina – 100% on Byron Leftwich being a world class idiot.
Baltimore – Bucs get early lead, defense completely shutdown the Ravens early, got worn out by offense going 3 and out, because Byron Leftwich is a world class idiot.
By my count, you can blame 3 of the losses directly on Leftwich and his God-awful play calling, that constantly puts the Bucs in 3rd and long, and 3 and outs, which in turn quickly wears down the Bucs defense since they’re always on the field.
The GB game easily could have been won if we had another WR. Evans not being there really hurt, but if Evans doesn’t fire up the team by knocking Lattimore’s teeth out, they lose that Saints game, and I’ll take the W vs the Saints ovs the W vs the Packers.
To me, the only game where the Bucs truly seemed outclass the Chiefs game, and even then you’re dealing with two early turnovers, and some truly awful decisions by Bowles, like punting from the 50 on 4th and short when your defense is completely worn out.
So a turnaround is completely possible, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Bucs go on a run. But they’re going to have to overcome that world class idiot Leftwich if they’re to have any chance.