Projection: Bucs Finish With No. 3 Seed
October 18th, 2022
“Joel, can I get a field pass for the playoff game, too?”
Joe mentioned yesterday that the Bucs have a cake schedule the rest of the way, not one opponent currently with a winning record.
And you know who thinks the Bucs will take advantage of that? The stat geeks.
Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, a stat geeky site that tries to guess the future, their numbers crunchers believe the Bucs are about ready to go on a run of wins.
This site’s sophists think the Bucs are going to finish the season winning 7 of their next 11 games to finish at 10-7, good enough for the No. 3 seed and at least one home playoff game.
Philadelphia will finish 14-3, they say, and wrap up the first seed in the conference playoffs. The No. 2 seed will be Minnesota with a 12-5 mark. Dallas will have the NFC’s third-best record at 12-5, but finish as a wild card in the NFC East, second to Philadelphia. That means Dallas will be a wild card and won’t be able to host home playoff games.
San Francisco also ends with a 10-7 record while winning the NFC West. Don’t ask Joe how the stat geeks predict the Bucs win a tiebreaker with San Francisco unless the stat geeks think the Bucs will beat San Francisco later this year on the road.
The Bucs, per FiveThirtyEight.com, have an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.
(Hat tip: @ihatesprint81.)
October 18th, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Yep……. cake schedule.
Nothing to worry about.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:11 pm
10-7 represents an absolute failure of a season. A Super Bowl run is still possible but, damn, they better get it together fast.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:17 pm
10-7 is the new 9-7…it’s a crappy record imho…
anything less than 11-6 with this talent and brady doesn’t sit well with me…
i predicted a 12-5 season way back…
at least with 11-6 you’re sorta winning 2 out of every 3 you play…
11-6 is the new 10-6…
i think the nfc east (formerly the least) is a bit of a mirage…
come playoff time the only one i worry about is going to philly in bad weather conditions with a rabid crowd…
we are going to have to hit stride at some point and get on a winning streak…
and mow down like 5 in a row to rebound from this 4 game shamble-fest
October 18th, 2022 at 1:17 pm
From what we’ve seen so far, the schedule is hardly a cakewalk. To maintain any arrogance from what they’ve done in the past after laying the eggs they’ve laid is insanity. Look in the mirror, gentlemen. You’re not all that.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:18 pm
I hope those cakes taste better than last week’s…
October 18th, 2022 at 1:18 pm
also minnesota often flies out the gate, only to fizzle out as the season wears on…
all too common a scenario for the vikes
October 18th, 2022 at 1:20 pm
if we drop the game this sunday to carolina in carolina…
sh!t will hit the fan…
and i think the glazers jump in the mix loudly right there and then
October 18th, 2022 at 1:21 pm
Stupid and meaningless to predict records and where someone will finish in their division unless EVERYONE for example picked the jets to beat the packers
October 18th, 2022 at 1:23 pm
Yeah………….bucs future is so bright you have to wear shades or throw shade-one of the two.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:26 pm
if they lose sunday, no chimichangas for anyone on the flight back to tampa… 🙂
the glazers should serve them up just a warm bottle of lukewarm water like they’re flying coach
October 18th, 2022 at 1:26 pm
The nerds are ruining pro football. I don’t pay attention to much of what they say. They don’t believe in momentum or clutch play. Games aren’t played on paper. Did anyone watch that disgraceful game last night? Idiot coach going for a 4th and 2 on the 29 yard line, in a 13-13 game late in the fourth quarter. They can take all their analytics and stuff it. I’m sure they predicted the falcons beating SF, and the Jets whipping GB
October 18th, 2022 at 1:28 pm
You must have found some really good pot!
October 18th, 2022 at 1:29 pm
“Joe mentioned yesterday that the Bucs have a cake schedule the rest of the way”
WAIT, I THOUGHT THE STEELERS WERE SUPPOSED TO BE CAKE!
Bucs will be lucky not to lose 5 more games
They really need to GET IT TOGETHER not to
October 18th, 2022 at 1:37 pm
The way we’re going, we may not even win our division. We shall see. The offense sucks right now, and it’s Leftwich largely to blame. Is he going to change? Unlikely. Are they going to hand over to the play-calling to someone else? Also unlikely. I think we’re effed. Without drastic change, even if we do make the playoffs, we’re one and done.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:43 pm
3 seed is fine, only the 1 seed gets a bye, but this isn’t the issue. We have (had?) higher expectations for during the playoffs, and the current product is not indicative of positive future performance.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:47 pm
if we don’t get our sh!t together right quick and fast, we will be dealing with this upstart atlanta team the rest of the season — and it will be a huge game in atlanta during week 17…
because they now believe, and that’s half the battle…and they are pissed af about the grady jarrett hit…
i have them finishing like 9-8 or 8-9…
so if we go 10-7 as these punditos predict, atlanta will be breathing down our neck all season
October 18th, 2022 at 1:49 pm
We just made the lowly Steelers look like a playoff team.
And we only beat Atlanta because of a bad call.
And Atlanta just handed it to the 49ers, so we may not even win our division.
WE should win against Carolina, but we should have won against the Steelers too.
I think we beat the Panthers, but not so sure about the Ravens who are upcoming.
I think we are missing Jensen and Marpet more then anyone wants to admit, just like we are missing Suh and JPP.
W/o the 4 players I just named, we are far from the dominate team we used to be.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:50 pm
I know this is blasphemous and Joe might hate me, but I love hearing Sean Payton talk football. The guy is an offensive genius. There’s no doubt in my mind that he would have this offense running. He said something very interesting in that the Bucs are missing Gronk’s blocking, especially in the red area. You see it on tape. Otton and Brate get blown up too much.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:52 pm
Hire Dirk back.
October 18th, 2022 at 1:57 pm
Give BA a headset.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:09 pm
I agree with Chris. We’re missing veterans like Jensen, Suh & JPP big-time. They brought the fire & the attitude; I’m not seeing that out there right now. You can go a long way on talent & technique, but it’s that fire that gets you over the top.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:11 pm
“A cupcake schedule”… full of soft, sorry teams… just like the Steelers, right? Who just held our offense to a pathetic 18 points…
October 18th, 2022 at 2:13 pm
Grow my own John
October 18th, 2022 at 2:19 pm
We just loss to the Steelers, who were a 1-4 team !! And now anyone who thinks the Rams, Ravens, Bengals, Saints are a “cake” walk is either a fool or on the weed ….We were lucky to beat the Dixie Chix who were playing without their lead back -Cordelle Paterson ??
we lost to the Steelers with our starters on offense; Brady ,Evans , Godwin,Gage,Lenny.. What happens when these guys come up with hammie injuries??
Yes we ” should ” beat the Panthers.
October 18th, 2022 at 2:22 pm
This prediction is made upon the assumption that the Bucs will start playing better. If they do play better, sure, it’s possible. If not?
Let’s hope everyone at OBP, including the water people (LOL), realize this is a critical juncture for this season.
Let’s GO BUCS!!!
October 18th, 2022 at 2:25 pm
That sounds about right…….I’ll be reassured if we can beat Ravens & Rams….
October 18th, 2022 at 2:40 pm
sure Joe we are a shoe in for the playoffs LOL!!!!!!!!!!
watch another steelers highlights whatever it takes
Dude you are dreaming–we suck!!! we cant score and we cant stop their 3rd downs stop the fantasy! We are picking in the top 5 of the nfl 2023 draft!
October 18th, 2022 at 2:42 pm
Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says: I think we are missing Jensen and Marpet more then anyone wants to admit, just like we are missing Suh and JPP.
My Momma says, Licht Beer could do something about this, but won’t.
Joe, My Momma wants to know if Licht could manipulate the salary cap any further to get some O and D-Line help. What are their options at this point? Sound like a future article?
October 18th, 2022 at 2:43 pm
We should beat a lot of teams but……
October 18th, 2022 at 2:48 pm
Last spring Licht knew he had to replace 2 O-line probowl level players . He Chose NOT to trade for proven guys .
Then in 1st wk of camp -he knew he had to replace Jensen. But AGAIN ,he chose NOT to trade for proven guy ..
Licht is stubborn & now we’re wasting a lot of talent -we will be lucky to win the division
October 18th, 2022 at 3:31 pm
538 yougottabekiddingme.this is a real stretch. lets see if we can first win with carolina.
October 18th, 2022 at 5:43 pm
538 … 😂 … 99% chance of President Hillary
October 18th, 2022 at 5:57 pm
“Don’t ask Joe how the stat geeks predict the Bucs win a tiebreaker with San Francisco unless the stat geeks think the Bucs will beat San Francisco later this year on the road.”
—
Answer: The stat geeks think the Bucs will beat San Francisco later this year on the road.
(there would be no other way actually)
October 18th, 2022 at 6:18 pm
Three months before the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight had Hillary with an 89% chance of victory. So take their stats for what it’s worth.
As for the schedule, the Bucs play the Ravens, Rams, 49ers and Bengals, plus a suddenly decent Seattle team, along with an Atlanta team that is overachieving – and they still have to face the stupid Saints who are just a pain in the rear regardless of their record. They in no way have a cupcake schedule.
With that said, I think the figure it out, mainly by either Brady or Arians turns Leftwich’s play calling sheet upside down, and he fails to notice it, and that forces him to call plays in a different order which literally fixes everything since he’s no longer such an insanely predictable moron.
October 18th, 2022 at 6:19 pm
No one is a cupcake team for our Bucs unless they start to prove otherwise.
October 18th, 2022 at 6:19 pm
10 wins looks like a stretch at this point – optimism for this lousy looking team should be very tempered
I hope they wake up, but it will have to be the players getting in sync
This coaching staff is in the very bottom rung of the NFL
Offense is stuck in 2nd gear in week 7 with multiple all pros
Defense argues more than they tackle
Special teams is pathetic for the 3rd year in a row
The units are direct reflections of their coaches, no excuses
October 18th, 2022 at 8:24 pm
@Bucsfan13, Peyton does know what he’s talking about. Whatever people think of him, he’s one of the best offensive minds of his era.
As for the nerds, their algorithms are flawed. Otherwise they’d be winning in Vegas like those MIT geeks did at Black Jack years ago. These predictive models are only probabilities. My favorite is the bspn predictor percentage for individual matchups. this team beat that team, so they must beat that team. It’s ludicrous. The bucs may well end up with the 3 seed. But it isn’t because of any special formula.
October 18th, 2022 at 8:47 pm
9-8
October 18th, 2022 at 9:08 pm
They might not even make the playoffs if you can’t beat a sorry team like the steelers #!!
October 18th, 2022 at 10:08 pm
Playoffs? PLAYOFFS?????????????? Don’t talk to me about P-P-P-PLAYOFFS! I just hope we can win a game!!!!!!!
October 18th, 2022 at 10:37 pm
We can do it! After we flip over BL’s play-card, we can do it!!
GO BUCS!!!
October 18th, 2022 at 10:58 pm
Panthers for sure. But them Ravens?
October 19th, 2022 at 7:42 am
Being an avid Brady fan since he was a collage bratt, I feel Tommy went to Crafts wedding and got way too hammered. He had little to no football spirit in his eyes. He got in the ass!s of his O-line but failed to get in his own it seems. But the respect for him kinda went away for partying over the weekend and not being ready to play on Sunday.
Many of us have been in the divorce phase of life and can understand how that treats us. But that was Tom’s decision to break his promise to his wife. Now he has followed that up by breaking his promises to the Buc’s and their fans.
Time for old Tommy Boy to pull his pants down, bend over, grab himself by the ears, and pull his head out of his “you-know-where” and start playing football again.
October 19th, 2022 at 5:07 pm
Tom is not all in and hasn’t been since March. He looks miserable out there. I’m not sure we don’t finish with lower seed than that by end of season. Think we just squeak into playoffs. There is a leadership void on this team. Devin White is not doing it on defense. Devin gets bored against the lesser teams. Dude you get paid how much money and your playing in front of millions and your playing a game. And he is bored, baffling. Tom is trying to act as a leader on offense. Players don’t take getting hollered for a long time by someone who is not all in with his time and commitment level into the team. Brady needs to be careful about this going forward