Sign Of A Good Offense
July 17th, 2022
Bucs OC Byron Leftwich.
This is a sign of a good offense.
We all know third down conversions are a big deal. Not often do you see teams have a lousy third down conversion and lose, unless they had a defense like the Bucs’ back in the Glory Years.
Well, Warren Sharp takes third down conversions to the next level. Sharp looks at teams that don’t often have to convert third downs. He calls this “Third Down Avoidance.”
What does that mean? It means a team’s offense is humming so well it isn’t in many third down situations. Sharp documented the teams with the best Third Down Avoidance are damn good.
In 2021, the Bucs had the league’s second-best Third Down Avoidance.
This reminds Joe of the stat Sharp had where the Bucs often threw on second down after a first down incompletion.
Simply put, the Bucs have a good offense.
Teams that ranked top-5 in third down avoidance in 2021:
1. KC- made AFC Conference Championship
2. TB- second best record in the NFL
3. GB- No. 1 seed and first round bye
4. SF- made NFC Championship Game
5. LAR- Super Bowl Champion— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) July 16, 2022
July 17th, 2022 at 11:08 am
I agree! The best way to have a high percentage of 3rd down conversions is to avoid them!
Of course, I really like our offense, but I also remember Brady in the ball control New England passing offense too,
That offense was fun to watch, because it was so hard to stop.
July 17th, 2022 at 11:15 am
More sign of a good QB.
July 17th, 2022 at 11:30 am
Bucs have a good offense for at least 1 more year
July 17th, 2022 at 11:59 am
Tampa also had the fifth best third down conversation rate in the league last year. Good offenses usually stay out of third and long situations. I suspect the bucs will face many more third downs this year. So long as it’s manageable distance, they should be fine. I do believe the offense will look different. In my opinion, they simply don’t have the weapons to play the way they did last year.
July 17th, 2022 at 12:17 pm
I agree with GOB, we don’t have the weapons we had last year, and I do expect the offense to take a step back some.
The good news for Tom Brady is that he has Russell Gage instead of AB.
I would certainly take AB over RG for a playoff game. But in a 17-game season, I expect the RG to provide more consistent production than AB who seemed to play when he wanted to and not necessarily when the team needed him.
I may be hoping a little, but not sure why a 26-year-old Russell Gage can’t have some of the skill sets that Brady used effectively with a 28-year old Julian Edelman or even a 26-year old Wes Welker.
July 17th, 2022 at 12:32 pm
geno, Gage is definitely the x factor. If he can connect with Brady, and is healthy, it should be a productive alliance. It’ll probably take some time, but I see no reason why he can’t approximate the lost production of AB. He’s very slight though, and can’t play effectively on the outside. I have questions about this mystery injury too. Brady has already said, he has a lot of work to do.
July 17th, 2022 at 12:52 pm
And when we have a third & 3…..don’t go with an empty backfield and throw a ow-percentage 20 yard pass….
July 17th, 2022 at 1:49 pm
TBBF, agreed 100%
July 17th, 2022 at 2:02 pm
Our offence will be good enough to win a superbowl this year. The defense is the side of the ball I’m worried about because without a good defense we ain’t winning a superbowl. The defense will be the reason why we don’t win a superbowl this year.
July 17th, 2022 at 3:33 pm
Oneilbuc, if the defense can play complementary football, they should be solid. If bowles doesn’t ratchet down the blitz percentages, I think they’re in trouble. You don’t need to blitz at nearly a 50% clip, when the offense is scoring 30 points a game. It doesn’t make sense. Stafford destroyed them against the blitz. You don’t blitz a QB that has a 70% completion rate against 5 or more rushers. Stafford had one int against the blitz last year.
July 17th, 2022 at 4:11 pm
“3rd down avoidance”, never heard that term before.
SO. We run up the guy on first, get 2.5 yards. 2nd down, crossing route to Godwin for 15 yards, thus no 3rd down?
July 17th, 2022 at 4:18 pm
A defensive minded coach tends to like ball control offenses. Gives the defense time to rest, better field position and less turnovers.
July 17th, 2022 at 4:58 pm
GoB. I agree with you bro we have to be able to rush the quarterback with 4 and get sacks and pressure the quarterback.
July 17th, 2022 at 7:50 pm
Oneildolphin – Can you hear yourself ? You sound like a child or a numbskull.
Go root for your Dolphins that you so badly want to see Brady play for ! GO BUCS
July 17th, 2022 at 10:22 pm
In 2020 it seemed that “playoff Lenny” ran the ball virtually every 1st down; understandable, to manage the blitz.
However, this made the Buccaneers’ first down offense- plays so predictable to the opponents’ defense, it was questionable whether it was worth it.
So, Brady must have had just 2nd down as a “one-down-opportunity” for a high percentage” “third down avoidance.”
Then things changed in 2021 where some Brady magic and some Lenny hard work created “regular season Lenny” who became a very spiffy receiving-back.
Someone analyze this please, and tell us what’s next for 2023; it looks like some possibly great things are “coming together” for the offense, but it’s difficult to tell just what that is exactly.
July 17th, 2022 at 10:53 pm
I can imagine Todd Bowles blowing it.
July 17th, 2022 at 10:56 pm
TampabayDJ. I thought yall said I was a sanits fan lol 😆 😂. So now I’m a dolphins fan lol 😆 😂 make up your mind lol 😆 😂. It sounds like you are a Brady fan more than a bucs fan. So when Brady leaves you go with him . I will still be here rooting for my bucs. You are one of those Patriots fan that believe the bucs have no hope after Brady . I celebrate the bucs wining the superbowl you celebrate Brady your daddy. Lol 😆 🤣