NextGen Stats Likes Jamel Dean
June 11th, 2022
Strong numbers.
Ask just about any Bucs fans who the team’s best corner is, and you likely will get a unanimous answer.
That would be Carlton Davis, who this offseason signed a hefty contract.
But if you research on NextGen Stats, which uses stats based on sensors in players’ equipment, there is a different Bucs corner high on the list. He is Jamel Dean.
Nick Shook of NFL.com decided to concoct his criteria of cornerback play based on NextGen Stats. And using this source of numbers, Shook has Dean as the No. 9 corner in the NFL.
No. 9: Jamel Dean, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passer rating allowed: 60.5
Catch rate allowed below expectation: -10.3%
Tight window pct: 21.2%
Target rate: 16.9%
Average separation: 2.6 yards
Targeted expected points added: -11.9Dean would be a spot higher on this list if Levi Wallace had not outperformed him in targeted EPA. That’s not much of a knock on Dean, whose NGS metrics jumped off the screen and screamed at me when compiling this list. Quarterbacks completed just 48.5 percent of passes in which Dean was the nearest defender, producing a coverage success rate (the percentage of targets that result in a successful play for the defense) rivaling that of A.J. Terrell, who, as you will see, is ranked very high on this list. And Dean allowed the ninth-lowest passer rating (60.5) in the league. Entering a contract year, Dean has certainly built positive momentum that could result in quite a pay day.
Dean also had the lowest yards-per-completion average of any Bucs corner.
To be fair, Davis, who Shook listed in his “just missed” category consisting of three players, missed seven games last season with an injury. Joe figures if Davis played a full season in 2021, perhaps he would have leapfrogged Dean on this list.
If Dean can keep up the solid play this year, he’s going to cash out quite well given that he’s is a contract year.
June 11th, 2022 at 8:15 am
Like Jamel….great kid…..speed, size…..think he’s underrated. If I had to choose between the two…..SMB or Dean, i’d pick Dean because I think SMB is easier to replace.
June 11th, 2022 at 8:19 am
I like Dean too, and think he will have a great year.
June 11th, 2022 at 8:21 am
Agreed tampa I’d take dean over SMB too. The size n speed is great. His hands need work with P.I and catching the ball but that’s why he’s a DB n not a WR lol hope he has a huge year we going to need all the help we can get back there
June 11th, 2022 at 8:24 am
Been saying this forever; Jamel Dean is a LOT better than most Bucs’ fans give him credit for. Doesn’t matter much at this point though; no way he’s still a Buc next year. There’s only so much money available to pay for BIG salaries, and Vea, Davis, Shaq then White & Winfield will eat it all up (hopefully followed by JTS & Hall).
June 11th, 2022 at 8:34 am
No, there’s a few of us that know that Dean is better than Davis now, and has a higher ceiling during his next contract. Sad that we’ll be forced to watch Carlton Davis get hurt and drop interceptions for the this team in the future while Dean will likely get paid elsewhere and be the better player.
June 11th, 2022 at 8:47 am
Not surprised by these stats, Much less obvious who is our best corner IMO
Catch the damn ball 35 and 24
Go Bucs
June 11th, 2022 at 8:54 am
Dean is probably the most talented of the group. His knock is two fold. His Occasional mental breakdown. And he is not that physical – almost avoiding contact at times. And he has good size w speed so unsure why not as aggressive
But the upside is confirmed in even recent comments made. He is in contract year so this will be Dean’s biggest contract of nfl career after season. So of course he will play with his hair on fire this season. And he will now play dinged up too (which he hasnt in the past)
I agree with others. Smb is by far the weakest of the starters. Now his stretch of picks in playoffs 2020 helped bucs win super bowl. Cause without his pick against packers , brady to miller before half never happens. And maybe bucs dont win that game. But the rest of his bucs career has been disappointing honesty. Not good enough Now maybe he proves us wrong this year but i think logan ryan will be eating from his plate.
June 11th, 2022 at 9:46 am
I don’t see it
He is the Donovan Smith of corners
June 11th, 2022 at 9:59 am
Dean is a BIG dude !
June 11th, 2022 at 10:13 am
Jamel Dean is so slept on, it’s not even funny. Closes distance well, tackles well, fast enough to cover WRs on the boundary and big enough to equalize the matchup difference as a CB covering TEs. Could afford to keep polishing his techniques and keep working on playing smarter within the scheme.
June 11th, 2022 at 10:16 am
Licht strikes again! Dean is the MAN! He needs to stay healthy! We could be seeing the emergence of “Barber and Kelly” in “Dean and Davis!!!” Adding in SMB; and were looking at a CB room that may give QB’s a reason to buy new running shoes! GO BUCS!!!!!!
June 11th, 2022 at 10:17 am
Destinjohnny,
Good point. Dean is a DSmith of corners, which is average at best.
Dean has the intangibles but seems to lack the mental aspect of the game, especially against elite teams,wr, n when playing under pressure. Did they include this with nextgen stat. He also doesn’t know how to use his size n speed to his advantage.
June 11th, 2022 at 11:06 am
Most importantly Bowles loves this guy. I’m not sure if it’s more like a son than a football player but they’re obviously close. I’m rooting for a big year for Dean he seems like a great guy.
June 11th, 2022 at 11:23 am
Joe it would appear to be NOT so unanimous
As to who is our best corner
Sticking to my story 35
Go Bucs !
June 11th, 2022 at 11:23 am
DR
We still will have JTS, Hall, Winfield on their rookie contracts……that will help some with the money….
We need to consider Nelson, Dean SMB Edwards………hopefully, we can keep 3 of the 4…..SMB or Dean may be the odd men out…..we can draft a replacement.
,,
No multiple large salaries coming off the board…..>>Gronk, LVD…..Brate (Brady?)
June 11th, 2022 at 12:10 pm
He has been my favorite corner for us the last 2years…..sign him please…we will see about SMB….let’s keep our 2 Auburn Tigers together…
June 11th, 2022 at 12:42 pm
Dean is the best press corner they have. He has the size to pin recievers, and the makeup speed to run with them. Part of the problem last year, was the fact they gave up way too much space to recievers. If bowles plays more press man, Dean should shine this year.
June 11th, 2022 at 1:05 pm
I rag on this kid a lot, but it’s nothing personal and I hope that he makes the pro bowl while making me look like a complete jacka$$. My issues are simple. He’s played in 23 of a possible 42 career games either due to injury or coaches decision. All the shiny, pretty, stats doesn’t make that fact any less awful.
June 11th, 2022 at 1:09 pm
Lol, pressed submit too soon. Also he’s inconsistent as hell at times and I’m guessing that’s why the coaches bench his butt. I’m a Buc homer man, but I just don’t get the love for this dude. Stay healthy Dean, keep up your pretty stats and I’ll sing your praises too.
June 11th, 2022 at 1:40 pm
Ha – the D Smith of corners- I’ve always liked Dean as my favorite of our corners.
June 11th, 2022 at 2:19 pm
I always feel better when Dean is in the field.
He’s got a nose for the ball.
June 11th, 2022 at 2:26 pm
TBBF … ‘We still will have JTS, Hall, Winfield on their rookie contracts”.
True statement, but I bet JL & his merry band set limits for each year. In 2023 we’ll need to re-do contracts for Dean, SMB, Edwards, Ryan, Neal, Nelson, Hicks, Gholston, RNR, White AND LVD just on defensive side (plus several backups like Cockrell, Delaney & O’Connor). Right there is 11 starters/key rotational guys … and we’re ALREADY OVER next year’s projected salary CAP by $68 mil, not counting Dead CAP (which will be huge). But hey, salary CAP is just a mirage, so we’re good. Well, until we’re not.
June 11th, 2022 at 2:32 pm
We will actually, finally have to cut back next year…..it will be time to get younger……I can see LVD, Hicks, Gholston gone….
June 11th, 2022 at 2:36 pm
Buczilla … ‘He’s played in 23 of a possible 42 career games either due to injury or coaches decision’.
Uhhh, I think you’re talking about games STARTED, not played in Buczilla. Pro-Football-Reference has him playing in 42 of the 49 regular season games the Bucs have had in the past 3 years, but only starting 23 of those. He’s also played in all 6 playoff games in those 3 years, and started all 6 of those BTW.
So out of that total of 55 games, he’s played in 48 of them (started 29), for an availability of 87.3% in all games past 3 years. Compare that to Davis’ availability of 80.0% in those same 55 games (regular season & playoffs), and SMB’s availability of 83.6% … I’d say Jamel Dean stacks up quite well.
June 11th, 2022 at 2:40 pm
TBBF … We’ll definitely be cutting back, and I agree that LVD will be one of those not re-signed. But we’re already shallow on the DLine, and I can’t see us not re-signing Hicks AND Gholston, PROVIDING that they BOTH have a good year this year.
June 11th, 2022 at 2:56 pm
According to PFF, Dean is graded just below Davis. Davis is ranked as the 13th best outside corner, Dean is right behind him at 14th. I think Dean has more upside, because of his speed and size. Dean is in a contract year. If he plays as well as expected, someone will pay him big money. It’s doubtful they keep them both in that scenario. If I’m licht, I trade Davis and lock up Dean. Not sure of the cap implications, but Davis kinda is what he is. He gives up way too much space on the outside, and is very late getting his head around. Hence, the lack of ints. Dean has a higher ceiling. Because of Dean’s size, he can be a matchup guy. For instance, guarding TEs.
June 11th, 2022 at 3:43 pm
@Defense Rules… You’re right, I misphrased it, but it still doesn’t change the reality that he hasn’t “started” nearly half of the games that he’s been eligible to start due to being banged up or coaches decision, or any myriad of reasons that I’ll never know because I’m just a fan.
If Dean stacks up well as you say then why such a low number of starts? Granted he did start in the playoffs and despite not creating a single turnover, I think that he did just fine against some impressive competition. As pass happy as the nfl has become, above average corners are going to start unless there is an abundance of corner talent ahead of them on the depth chart. We haven’t had an all-pro or pro bowl corner since Darrelle Revis nine years ago, so it’s not like Dean has faced stiffed competition. Look, if it looks like a fish, smells like fish, and tastes like a fish, it’s probably a fish. He isn’t starting for a reason and the coaches decision not to start him tells me that they aren’t too impressed with his numbers either. If he’s too banged up to start that’s another matter, but still a big concern in of itself. Peace. 😜
June 11th, 2022 at 4:29 pm
Buczilla … Ya Dean’s not starting games (over SMB) puzzled me too. But if I remember correctly, Dean was injured to start the season when they both started. Kinda tracks with his def snaps.
In 2019 he played in 13 games, started only 5, and got only 370 def snaps. That increased somewhat in 2020 when he played in 14 games, started 7, and got 708 def snaps. Increased even more last year when Dean played in 15 games, started 11, and got 685 def snaps. So these last 2 years he’s been averaging 40-50 def snaps in the games he’s played in, which isn’t all that bad considering that Bucs have Davis & SMB to play outside in addition to him.
Dean’s overall completion percentage allowed (53.7%) is the best of all the Bucs, plus he’s only allowed 6 TDs in those 3 years. Considerably better than both Davis (57.8% and 14 TDs) & SMB (69.2% and 13 TDs) over that 3 year span.
June 11th, 2022 at 4:52 pm
I’ve been telling by y’all this since his first start against the Seahawks.
Size, speed and most importantly: natural instincts.
He just needs to stay healthy (and some times, stay on his feet )
June 11th, 2022 at 6:34 pm
@Defense Rules… Yup, no denying the kid’s potential and he’s looked damn good at times, but I just need to see more of it. Maybe I’m jaded due to the Eric Currys, Vinny Testeverdes, Mark Barrons, and Jameis Winstons, etc. that have come to our team looking like world beaters at times, but ultimately failing miserably while with us. So far, for me, like the above mentioned players, Dean has been like the pretty girl at a party that’s talked and flirted with ya all night only to leave you with nary a kiss by the end of it. Show me the mula Mr. Dean and I’ll happily jump on your bandwagon.
June 11th, 2022 at 8:58 pm
Dean was terrible against Dallas in last season’s opener. It may have been poor preparation as he was a backup last year until SMB got his elbow dislocated in the first quarter and Dean took over for him. Dan Prescott picked on him all game. He has a lot of measurables but not sure about the process.
June 13th, 2022 at 12:45 pm
I’ve been touting Dean for three years as a great performer but our “Fans” seem to hate him. Our fans also wouldn’t know a good corner if he bit them on their @55 after a pick SIX. Profootball Refernce has his opposing QB rating at 50.3 or something like that and giving up ZERO TDs… whatever the numbers are when throwing his way aren’t good… and it’s about time our fanbase realized that. Dean is our best CB. I love Carlton Davis… but Dean has been better the past two seasons… and Davis is good.