The Tougher Schedule
May 19th, 2022
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
If one is to go by opponents’ 2021 records, the Bucs have an uphill climb to match the 13 wins they posted last season.
One of the Joes is outraged at the four-letter for suggesting the Bucs will only win nine games. The other Joe doesn’t think that forecast is that far off. Of course, BSPN is going a lot on last year’s records, as Jenna Laine points out.
The oddsmakers have the Bucs’ win total at 11.5. They managed to go 13-4 last season despite their receiving corps being decimated by injuries in the last quarter of the season. But that was against a 29th-ranked schedule, according to FPI, with opponents finishing a combined 126-145 the year before. This season, the Bucs’ opponents finished a combined 154-134-1 in 2021.
Perhaps Joe is a bit subjective here, but he trusts the Vegas wiseguys more than a fidgety dude in Bristol cooking up his own Excel spreadsheet.
Former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter always used to remind reporters that roughly a third of a team’s roster changes every season. So it’s a roll of the dice to bank on last year’s records to determine this year’s wins and losses.
So is the Bucs schedule really daunting? Or is it more bark than bite?
May 19th, 2022 at 4:47 am
There was a ton of turnover this off-season. We had our share too. The Goat is gonna Goat. Our defence is gonna be the biggest variable. Logan Hall is the wild card.
May 19th, 2022 at 5:57 am
‘Perhaps Joe is a bit subjective here, but he trusts the Vegas wiseguys more than he does some fidgety dude in Bristol cooking up his own Excel spreadsheet.’
B-I-N-G-O!!! Interesting that you never see folks put predictions in the record books. They actually make you play the game to have it count. And even the odds-makers don’t pay out money based on predictions; only on results.
In case no one noticed, our offense often struggled against quality defenses last season, and even during our 2020 SB season. Perfectly understandable IMO, but that’s just more reason why the Bucs’ DEFENSE needs to be solid this season to keep our offense within striking distance in the tougher games.
Our defense has a lot of question-marks right now IMO: the Secondary, our ILBs (both of them), and especially our DLine. Gee, that’s pretty much the whole defense if you put it that way. All 3 levels lack quality depth, and our DLine has lost a ton of LEADERSHIP & TALENT (Suh, JPP & McLendon). We’re relying too heavily on aging/oft-injured players, and are relying much too heavily on unproven youngsters (JTS & Hall). Not a smart gamble. Re-sign Suh, for starters.
May 19th, 2022 at 6:24 am
Aint that the truth. I would trust vegas oddsmakers more then bspn. The guys in Vegas that come up with the odds / over unders etc etc are pretty amazing. Hard to make money or win in vegas period .
Just ask Art W Griswald
May 19th, 2022 at 6:36 am
Just win enough games to make the playoffs. That’s all that matters.
May 19th, 2022 at 6:42 am
The Packers, Cowboys, and Saints all got considerably worse. Even if they’re playoff teams, they won’t hit their peak in September. And yes, I trust Vegas more than any of the content-churners in Connecticut. I assume it’s the same idiot who predicted KC would last in their division.
May 19th, 2022 at 6:46 am
The schedule is brutal. 10-7 sounds reasonable to me.
May 19th, 2022 at 7:19 am
DRules..
“In case no one noticed, our offense often struggled against quality defenses last season, and even during our 2020 SB season. Perfectly understandable IMO, but that’s just more reason why the Bucs’ DEFENSE needs to be solid this season to keep our offense within striking distance in the tougher games”
Last year secondaries adjusted eith an extra safety over the top. No biscut allowed, keep everything in front of you strategy. Our running game, play action and some smashmouth in the trenches should loosen things up. Just take a look at our draft this year.
May 19th, 2022 at 7:24 am
ESPN has a stupid Disney woke agenda.
Vegas has the time honored money agenda.
Money alwas rules. Hodad is right. Just make the playoffs. Use the NHL mentality.
May 19th, 2022 at 7:24 am
LFG Bolts too!
May 19th, 2022 at 7:53 am
It is a tough schedule….but I think the Bucs will surprise….and, the roster isn’t complete…..I expect both Gronk & Suh to be back.
May 19th, 2022 at 8:36 am
Biff Barker … ‘Last year secondaries adjusted either an extra safety over the top. No biscut allowed, keep everything in front of you strategy.’
Agree Biff; almost always resulted in a nice cat-and-mouse game (Brady has proven to be very adept at taking what defenses give him). Problems usually seem to come in when we fall behind (by multiple scores) early; I’m hoping that we’re better at keeping it closer in tough games this year.
Also agree about the run game, or at least about our RBs playing a bigger role this year. Lenny was solid last year in both the run game & the passing game, but RoJo & Ke’Shawn had limitations (doesn’t appear that either fully had TB12’s trust like Lenny does). I like Gio, but he’s primarily a receiving back now (8 runs, 58 yds, 3 x 1st downs & 0 TDs rushing doesn’t scream ‘Turn me loose coach, I’m a rushing threat’).
This year SHOULD be different, with more emphasis on rushing the ball (maybe as high as 40%) AND more emphasis on RBs catching passes out of the backfield (at least until Godwin gets back). Lenny will get the lion’s share of the work, rushing & receiving. Our new rookie White MAY grab 2nd place IF he can gain TB12’s attention early-on. Gio will probably be in 3rd place, and I still don’t have a clue what Ke-Shawn brings to the table. We’ll see I guess.
May 19th, 2022 at 9:12 am
I like Gronk but Suh is more important Logan Hall will have to go through a learning curve splitting time with Suh would be ideal.
May 19th, 2022 at 9:39 am
If they can beat nine of them, they can beat all if them.
May 19th, 2022 at 9:59 am
This thing about run-pass balance is misleading. We were behind in the 2nd half of a lot of our games due to sluggish starts. Even though we won most of our games, teams that are behind are gonna pass more. In order to really ramp up the run game, we need to build leads, or at least keep the games close so that there is no temptation to abandon the run. We need to start games with more energy. Build a lead, then let the o-line and the rbs punish the other teams defense. .
May 19th, 2022 at 10:28 am
After watching brady for 20 years he always comes back in the end of games especially against good teams. Thos schedule is the hardest ive ever seen and other teams (except greenbay as always) , have tough schedules as well. There arent any slouch teams anymore. SIGN HIGHTOWER, SIGN SUH!!!, UNFINISHED BUISSNESS LFGO
May 19th, 2022 at 10:59 am
I like Hightower, but he’s finished as a player. He’s very tough and processes the game extremely well, but he’s at the point where he’s lost too much speed. Though he’s been durable, he’s at an age where most LBs become brittle or retire either due to injury or loss of effectiveness.
May 19th, 2022 at 12:40 pm
Brady lead teams actually perform better I’m the playoffs, when facing a top 5 schedule. I think being “battle tested” is important. We learn more in defeat than victory. Smart teams learn what works, what doesn’t, and correct mistakes. Bucs fans shouldn’t be disappointed with 11 wins.
May 19th, 2022 at 12:41 pm
In not I’m, I hate autocorrect
May 19th, 2022 at 1:02 pm
Passing is right, Hightower is done. The NFL is moving away from his prototype anyway.
May 19th, 2022 at 3:04 pm
The ol’ “SOS” argument. Personally, I put ZERO stock in it. The plan is simple: BEAT THE TEAM IN FRONT OF YOU!
If you do that often enough, you get a shot at the playoffs. ANY team can be beat.
May 19th, 2022 at 4:25 pm
WesternBuc, Packers, Cowboys do not have a tougher schedule. NFC Central and East are not tough divisions. Saints? Many of the same teams as Bucs will face, but Saints don’t begin the season with 4 ridiculous games.
Bucs will likely begin season in a hole, while most teams have a much more typical start. Season opening weeks are riddled with things like upsets and performances that don’t make sense. Teams don’t gel until well into the season.
Bucs get zero this season. Completely stacked against them.
May 20th, 2022 at 2:46 am
Steel, I meant their teams got considerably worse.