ESPN Computers Project Bucs To Win 9 Games
May 18th, 2022
Weak prediction.
It’s literally been 20 years since Tom Brady delivered anything less than a 10-win season for his team.
However, the data gurus over at ESPN don’t seem to give that much weight when predicting the Bucs’ record this season.
The famous ESPN football power index says the Bucs will be the ninth-best NFL team this season with 9.4 wins. The Bucs also were granted a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 5 percent shot at winning the Super Bowl.
Strength of schedule is a huge component of this BSPN metric system, and the Bucs have one of the most challenging slates in the NFL. Heck, even the Bucs’ preseason schedule has three winning teams from 2021.
Regardless, this is a great example of why Joe is annoyed by most analytics. Brady teams simply do not win less than 10 games. Brady went 9-7 in 2002, and since then he’s had two 10-win regular seasons and has averaged 12 wins per season. But hey, the computer says the Bucs will win nine.
Joe’s computer says if Todd Bowles wins nine games with a healthy Brady, then Bowles is very likely to have a new job in 2024.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:33 am
I got us at 10 and making the wildcard playoffs.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:36 am
We will go 14-3
May 18th, 2022 at 10:37 am
It’s just more bulletin board material for Tom Brady. You would think they would have learned by now.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:38 am
The ESPN software, whether it’s football, basketball, or baseball, is poor quality. Whatever algorithms they use, don’t bother. The Vegas books are a much better indication. They’re set up by developers and handicappers who know what the hell they are doing.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:45 am
Cynthia Frelund is much more attractive to follow about win predictions.
BSPN are morons.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:59 am
Aaahh yes, the lesson of Troy: ‘Be wary of Geeks bearing gifts’.
Actually, ESPN’s prediction did its job … to gain attention for ESPN. And it worked. But its’ value is minimal. Look at ESPN’s 2021 projections. Rams had a 3% chance of winning the SB; Bengals weren’t even listed. Favorite was Kansas City (19%), who got whooped by those same Bengals.
Maybe this is why they let football players actually play the game in-person instead of letting self-proclaimed computer whizzes go at it behind their computers. Analytics can be useful for evaluating past performance, but it has its’ limitations as a crystal ball.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:59 am
I’ll take Butterface’s computer over BSPN’s.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:06 am
That is ridiculous. Odds are they go about 5–1 in their division plus Pittsburgh and Seattle aren’t any good. If they just go 5–4 in the other 9 games it’s a 12 win season
May 18th, 2022 at 11:09 am
There’s nothing wrong with sports analytics, it has transformed baseball and basketball. I’m sure select football teams clandestinely fund sports analytics to try getting the upper hand on drafting our scouting out opponents.
But ESPN? Come on, they’re not a serious player. If you were a top-drawer AI/ML data scientist, would you sit in Bristol, CT for $90,000 a year, or would you be with one of the professional teams or sports books making a multiple of that? In computer science, the operative term is GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out). ESPN does not capture key data that the teams and bookies do with their sophisticated software. They also have the talent, powered by the big payroll.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:22 am
What did ESPN predict for the Bucs the last 2 years? What is their track record?
May 18th, 2022 at 11:22 am
Well played, lads.
All excellent points.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:32 am
I think people are not sold on this bucs secondary. They brung back the same secondary that got torched. Brady might have to play hero ball again. I think we will find out right away if this secondary is gonna be garbage again through the first 4 to 5 games.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:34 am
lol… garbage in garage out
Only if TB is not starting at QB is 9 loses a reality come end of season.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:35 am
Last year many were talking about 17-0…that didn’t happen
May 18th, 2022 at 11:44 am
Francisco, I’d prioritize the signing of a quality DE over Bradbury. If Licht restructures Donovan Smith, there’s enough money for Hicks or Suh, plus enough funds left over to sign a vet CB. There isn’t a CB left on the marketplace that’s worth a big dollar contract; the guys left are solid, older vets. The Bucs sure could use one more vet CB to solidify that injury-prone, defensive backfield.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:45 am
Preseason prediction, as always, are a waste of time. I don’t make ’em and I don’t worry about what others’ predictions are. What difference does it make. I expect them to go out and win every week, and I don’t care who the opponent is…
May 18th, 2022 at 11:48 am
The fundamental flaw in their prediction is that strength of schedules is based on other teams’ performance LAST YEAR. It isn’t a stretch to say that teams change from year to year, some get better, some get worse, and some stay the same. Perhaps, for example, the Packers are a worse team without Devante Adams, the Steelers are a worse team without Ben Roethlisberger, and the Seahawks are a worse team without Russel Wilson…
May 18th, 2022 at 11:50 am
Those baboons at BSPN couldn’t calculate how many nuts they have in their sac and come up with the same answer twice. I just hope their next jobs don’t have anythung to do with assembling the rides at the carnival Leave that to the slightly more intellegent winos and crackheads.
May 18th, 2022 at 11:55 am
I think 12-5. I ran it through my computer and it said, everybody pray that Brady doesn’t get hurt.
May 18th, 2022 at 12:20 pm
I’ve been saying it all along. If we could not win it all last seaosn, we’re not going to win it all this season. This will be disappointing season #2, a waste. We should have traded Brady’s rights (we didn’t), get rid of Arians (we did), and focused on rebuilding (we aren’t).
May 18th, 2022 at 12:25 pm
Negative Nelly ^^
May 18th, 2022 at 12:31 pm
12-13
May 18th, 2022 at 12:32 pm
@Sparky, lol, yup.
May 18th, 2022 at 12:42 pm
If these headlines were to sucker me into reading the article, it didn’t work haha
As soon as i saw the headline, i thought “what the frick” I went to ESPN and checked the % of each game. They have the bucs losing to GB, Rams and get ready for this, THE COWBOYS!!!!!!!!!!!! They said the cowboys have a 62%CHANCE OF WINNING> D0n’t quit your day job hahaha
May 18th, 2022 at 12:54 pm
I bet the number goes up if Gronk returns.
May 18th, 2022 at 1:00 pm
No doubt, the schedule is tough. They do have two big silver linings. First, the bucs won’t play a team that’s had extra rest. Also, they have the easiest closing schedule in the league for the final three games. They’ll probably be in a position to need to win all three of those games, so that’s huge. I think 11 or 12 wins realistically. Anything over that would be a huge accomplishment
May 18th, 2022 at 1:06 pm
The same computers and engineers that had the Bucs getting stomped by KC in SB LV.
May 18th, 2022 at 1:12 pm
One look at our roster says no way this team wins less than 10 games.
Stupid computer……
The more realistic projection is 12 wins – 96% chance of making the playoffs and a 31% chance of winning the Super Bowl in TB12’s final year.
May 18th, 2022 at 1:17 pm
EVERY article in every publication is meant for the reader to read the story. One of the very first things learned in college.
May 18th, 2022 at 1:18 pm
Even if we went say 1-1 with every team in the NFC South, the Bucs won’t be able to win six more out of 17 games? Sounds fishy. I said 11-5 last year and we ended up 13-4. I will say 11-5 based purely on the roster at the moment and the schedule we have.
May 18th, 2022 at 1:25 pm
As one of thier own old football guru’s that’s why they play the games
May 18th, 2022 at 1:52 pm
SOEbuc I think the bucs will add an important piece or two. Still have pre and post June 1 cuts and the trade market into November. When Brady signed the contract with Fox, it put the end in sight. If this is Brady’s last year, plenty of guys will want to play with him. Offensive and defensive
May 18th, 2022 at 2:31 pm
I haven’t gone through it in detail yet, but I was thinking 11-wins before the schedule came out, but man, the start of that schedule is brutal. In addition the Saints are going to be a lot better than most people expected as they didn’t blow up the team, and instead restocked themselves, and this year have real NFL receivers. The Saints, who play a much easier schedule, could pretty easily end up winning the NFC South if the Bucs, with Arians and Godwin, struggle early against that brutal schedule.
I’m not too worried about it so long as the Bucs make the playoffs. As long as they’re in, they can win it all, it just takes getting hot at the right time of the year.
May 18th, 2022 at 2:33 pm
9 wins… if Trask has to start the entire season.
May 18th, 2022 at 3:18 pm
Rod you sure seem to paise them saints alot l don’t see it. You must be a Jamis fan.
May 18th, 2022 at 4:01 pm
In 2020, most thought wild card win, if lucky. Ended up winning the Super Bowl.
In 2021, most thought an undefeated season, got bounced in round 2 and swept by the Saints.
So predictions when it comes to the Bucs have not been good lately.
May 18th, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Their computer is broken 🤔 13 and we will win Superbowl
May 18th, 2022 at 8:19 pm
A new king of the morons – BucBoy!
He’d rather go back to endless cycles of 5-11, 6-10,2-14, 7-9 to ensure top draft picks. What a cretin.
May 18th, 2022 at 10:53 pm
It is a fair assessment. As long as they get in the playoffs, the real season can begin. Being counted out and overachieving in January would be a great bookend to Brady’s career.
May 19th, 2022 at 8:56 am
If the Bucs don’t do anything about the D line, it’s possible but unlikely. Remember KC has to play Charges, Denver, Raiders twice. Buffalo will be tough and Roger’s picked GB’s pockets. 12-5.
May 19th, 2022 at 11:26 am
Well if a machine says We are only going to win 9 games I guess that’s it , I mean those dudes ,whoever they are ,who programmed that machine must be infallible right? ( Just for fun why don’t we just watch the games and see how the players on our team do inspite of what the machine says).