Value May Elude Bucs At No. 27 Overall
April 24th, 2022
Bucs GM Jason Licht
This year’s draft crop doesn’t appear to be among the best of this century. And for Bucs general managers who want to trade down, sometimes the war room hotline doesn’t ring.
The season of smoke is in full swing with the draft coming on Thursday. Team general managers are holding predraft news conferences and spewing all kinds of truths, lies and misdirections.
Chiefs GM Brett Veach said this week that the draft is full of valuable gems from picks No. 30 through 60. Veach’s staff has first-round grades on a maximum of just 18 players, the Kansas City Star reported.
If Veach is being honest, then where does that leave the Bucs at No. 27 overall? Veach certainly is a successful and savvy GM, and only 18 first-round-caliber picks available would mean the Bucs are not in great position.
Kansas City owns picks Nos. 29 and 30 behind Tampa Bay.
Joe’s favorite thing about the draft is that all the overhype and BS gets stripped away as soon as it ends. There’s value in every round and Pro Bowlers emerge from every round. Just pick the right guys.
The Bucs are looking for not just good players, but also fast-impact players with Tom Brady at 45 years old. In 2020, they found two in the draft: Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield. Joe would be happy this year with just one good rookie ready to hit the ground flying.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:00 pm
Well not to worry, once Brady leaves the team will be back to drafting in the top 6 every year, for a while, so we’ll get a lot of value there.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:01 pm
Czonka Saracuse 1st round
Alstott Perdue 2nd round
April 24th, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Derrick brooks: #28 first round.
Can lightning strike twice?
April 24th, 2022 at 3:07 pm
This is why the Bucs should stay flexible and draft the BPA. They have several holes to fill.
On offense we need RB #2, TE, starting OG and even another WR (due to reports that Godwin won’t be 100% ready until November).
On defense we need IDL, OLB, LB, CB and S.
On special teams we could use an upgrade at Punter/Kick offs.
Someone is bound to fall to us at #27 – as long as we stay flexible and don’t reach out of perceived needs…
April 24th, 2022 at 3:22 pm
Unless someone big falls, obviously I think the Bucs would love to trade back a few spots and maybe pick up another 3rd rounder – but I think most teams would like to do that this year, so I doubt its an option.
Looking at some mock drafts, one huge no-no, DO NOT draft a Florida player in the 1st round. Please. The Bucs blew it by not drafting Emmitt Smith in 1990 when everyone had him going to the Bucs and instead they traded for Gary Anderson just before the draft and took Keith McCants instead, and for that Smith has cursed the Bucs to never again have a successful 1st round Florida player on the Bucs.
If there is any value on the defensive line, that’s an obvious pickup. Hopefully they bring back Suh, and ideally you’d have someone on the bench learning their rookie year since defensive lineman are rarely successful.
There’s no TE worth draft in the 1st, not really all that close, so I doubt that’s on the board.
I have complete faith in Licht to find a guard in the 2nd or 3rd, and I also don’t rule out that Licht thinks he’s believes Hainsey could be that starting guard for us and might not take anyone. Whatever he decides to do, people should have faith that Licht knows what he’s doing on the offensive line, his record is very very good there.
Getting a safety wouldn’t be the worst thing. Winfield Jr is a freak as most safeties really struggle their 1st year, so drafting a guy now, for next year, would be a good route to go.
Also, if the idea is to make Brady happy so he comes back next year, get him another top WR. We don’t know when Godwin will be back, so getting a young guy to be a #3 until then would be pretty smart. Also the price of WR’s is skyrocketing, and Evans is going to need a new deal soon. Plus, finally, the Bucs tend to have a ton of injuries at WR every year, in particular at the end of the year when it really counts, so while it might sound like a luxury, if the Bucs had Godwin or Gage and Perriman in the playoffs, if Brate wasn’t needing to play a big role, maybe the Bucs do pull out that Rams game.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:30 pm
Just draft the best player on the board and play football. Can we quit acting like there’s some magical equation to finding the next great thing. Draft, coach, develop, perform.
I’ve come around to the idea of drafting a defensive back at #27, but I don’t want that player to be strictly a CB. I like the hybrid nickel/safety guys that can plug positional holes due to injuries. The Logan Ryan, Keanu Neal, Mike Edwards type guys. Scheme flexibility is key.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:41 pm
The draft pundits had Emmit Smith being much too slow and too small😂
Ten years later these pundits had Brady with a weak noodle arm and a back up at best.😂😂😂
Point being, the Self proclaimed guru’s can be very misinformed.
They don’t appear to factor in that ‘gotta get her done’ factor very well at all.
Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Jerry rice… just to name a few…
April 24th, 2022 at 3:46 pm
DL drafted high could be an immediate rotational player and could be a starter by late in the season. Thinking that guy could be Logan Hall.
TE in round 2 or 3 could end up a starter if Gronk doesn’t return. At least getting significant time in 2TE packies. McBride or Otton.
A 1st or 2nd round guard could probably defeat the competition to start at LG. Any guard drafted after day 2 would be a wasted pick, unless it was some super sleeper diamond in the rough.
A first round receiver could start until Godwin returns.
Andrew Booth could start for us immediately. Dax Hill would start immediately.
Injuries to starters are always an opportunity for rookies to make an impact.
We ought to be able to snag 2-3 guys that can help immediately, and possibly late round special teams impact as well.
Draft the punter Araiza in round 5 or 6, if available. Yes, we’d have to figure out a way to acquire those picks. Araiza would be impact for sure.
Draft time is like Christmas.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:50 pm
I’ll be ecstatic if that one good rookie is Chris Olave. 😛
April 24th, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Najobe Dean , or whatever his first name is.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:52 pm
I’d like either a quality prospect at either DT or CB, but there’s an excellent chance that no DT or CB will fit that label at #27, especially DT. In fact, the best CB prospect at #27 might not grade ou any higher than a CB prospect at pick #60 or so.
It might make sense to trade out #27 for a second round plus late 3rd or early 4th round pick package.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:53 pm
My sense is the licht team is very good evaluating big lineman. Both sides of the ball. Too me the proof is in the pie.
April 24th, 2022 at 3:57 pm
Marine Buc there is no BPA. Joe is right its all hype and BS.
Looking at just the Bucs you could see this. Wirfs was 4th BPA at tackle. Winston and Mariata were the 2 best QB prospects of a decade. Brooks was a borderline 1st/2nd rounder who was too little to even play LB. Winfield was overdrated and Noah Spence was a toal steal.
Look back at history and I can buy there is a BPA inside the top 5. Some years top 10…….once you get past that BPA is an illusion…….unless you think Mel Kiper is right every year hahaha
April 24th, 2022 at 4:35 pm
Those players who stick around for 8-10 years (like LVD & Suh & JPP) normally come from the Top 3-4 Rnds. Not always of course, but normally (Bucs seem to have done quite well in Rnd 4 in recent years). Just look at the Bucs’ lineup on offense or defense; only 2 starters on offense (Brady, Jensen) drafted outside Rnd 4, and only 1 (Shaq) on defense.
Seems like it makes sense that if you’re looking for starters or key rotational players, draft them in the Top 3-4 Rnds. It’s wonderful to build for the future, but if you NEED to fill certain holes today & you don’t have much money, then it makes sense to fill that need in the current draft (providing of course that acceptable players are available when you pick to fill those needs).
Bucs right now NEED a DL to replace (or hopefully rotate in with Suh). We NEED a DE/OLB to replace JPP. We also NEED an ILB to replace LVD at some point in the season (does anyone really believe his 60% ankle will hold up all season & allow him to play balls-to-the-wall for 17 games plus the playoffs?). We also NEED a TE to rotate in with & take some of the blocking load off of Gronk (assuming of course that he re-signs with us).
There’s 4 NEEDS right there. If we don’t fill them with draft picks, who do we fill them with? FAs? Since we still need to re-sign Gronk and hopefully Suh, where would we get the $$$ for ANOTHER high-priced signing? This is a critical draft if we expect to compete for another Super Bowl.
April 24th, 2022 at 4:37 pm
Rod Munch Says
Well not to worry, once Brady leaves the team will be back to drafting in the top 6 every year, for a while, so we’ll get a lot of value there.
Maybe. Maybe not.
Jason Licht has gotten better at drafting since those days. Between that and free agency, we might land a good QB…and we have a good nucleus for a young team after the vets start bailing.
So far as the original post by Joe…I think we can find good value anywhere in the draft…it isn’t where you choose, it is who you choose.
April 24th, 2022 at 4:39 pm
@ JimmyJack
That’s not how it works bud…
Every GM has his own draft board and players are evaluated by each team.
The GMs know what their needs are.
So when I say “BPA” – it means the player that our GM has valued the highest who is still available – especially in a position of need.
Just because the Chiefs may not have first round grades on more than 18 players doesn’t mean our GM sees things the same way.
April 24th, 2022 at 5:23 pm
On topic, I’m watching my first Bandits game, finally.
They are awefull, but New Orleans has a really good looking reciever I’d like us to sign.
I’m no Joe so I forget his name, but he’ll show up in the stats.
I want that guy.
April 24th, 2022 at 6:03 pm
@BF$E: Adams. Quite the stud. I agree. He may wear a NFL uni in the fall, which is the point of the USFL.
Bandits played OK last week, and got the snot bubbles knocked out of them this week, a real “lost decade” drubbing.
April 24th, 2022 at 6:08 pm
Bucs had a better than good chance to land Deshaun Watson. Yes, a real POS, but take that out of the equation. On the field – the Bucs could’ve been set for the next decade. Something the Bucs have never had. Brady’s flaky retirement/y retirement/drama/rumor filled bs only works if the Bucs get a second super bowl out of this. After this yr, yes, they will be drafting nice and high for the indefinite future.
April 24th, 2022 at 6:25 pm
Marine Buc to be fair you did say BPA is what the Bucs “should do”…. I gotta say its a bit of a cop out to say BPA is whoever the Bucs say it is……..Even though i do agree with you on how the process works.
At the end of the day I think the Bucs have the position they want to draft at 27. Im betting they have been planning it for a very long time and its probably a very short list of players that would change their plan(probably bery unlikely to fall as well).
BPA is media hype. NFL teams likely look at this with a bigger focus on positions and plan free agency around it. It would take a special player drop to have them change the offseason plan on Draft Night……..History backsot up too. After the first 10 picks it is a complete roll of the dice.
April 24th, 2022 at 6:38 pm
D Tackle, LB, CB, Safety, OG, OT, Edge, WR, I could see the Bucs drafting any one of these positions in the 1st.
April 24th, 2022 at 6:38 pm
Buccaneer Bonzai — I hope you’re right, but I just think the football Gods are going to put us in our place once Brady goes. In any case I’m OK with there being a price to go all-in the last two years – just looking quickly at next year, for example, we’re already $42-million over the cap. Yes, that number can and will change, and yes, you can do things to negate that hit, but there will almost certainly be a price to pay at some point.
Now if Trask ends up to be a good QB that will help tremendously since they’ll have a couple of years of a very cheap QB, but I’m just setting my expectations very low until I actually see him consistently throw an NFL pass. He did throw some NFL passes with NFL velocity last preseason, I just want to see him do that and look natural doing that before I get my hopes up.
But in any case I’m not rooting against the Bucs obviously, but I am realistic and grew up a Bucs fan, so I always expect the worst. Except for the SB 37, where I knew the Bucs would beat the hell out of the Raiders.
April 24th, 2022 at 7:11 pm
@ JimmyJack
I assume when I say “BPA” most people here understand – I mean BPA for the Bucs. Do you really expect our GM to draft a QB or OT with pick #27?
Not really a “cop out” for hoping people are able to use common sense – is it?
April 24th, 2022 at 7:31 pm
my hope is Licht can trade back to the upper 2nd and snag an additional pick
April 24th, 2022 at 7:49 pm
My oh my what has happened to Vasy? He is a shell of his former self. Why does he stink all of a sudden. The wrst goals I’ve evr seen him give4 up.
Anyway, I digress. The answer is simple for the Bucs, best player available
April 24th, 2022 at 8:10 pm
FlA has won 13 games in a row for a reason. They are hot no matter who they face.
The Bucs. I don’t care who they draft because it is not up to me. I am sure Licht will do his best for the team as they see fit.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:15 pm
Trade up with the Pats….grab Olave or Dotson and its done. No rocket science behind it at all. Just figure out which pick from next year to use in the trade.
Then we’ll work on the rest of the draft.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:18 pm
@DBS. If you watch the game. They are dreadful goals to give up. Vasy is not good right now. Not against the Panthers. not against any team. It’s more than the Panthers. The shots haven’t been tough stops. I just watched Elliot look 100 times better. Meh. Let me stop. I don’t want to hijack Joe’s thread.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:19 pm
The Pats want Booth….and theres probably plenty of opportunity to still land him at our pick #27 for them….they will still get their man.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:23 pm
Marine yeah you are assuming too much with me because like i said BPA is an illusion. Media hype.
I dont think its an acual stragety teams use. Maybe a bit in later rounds but not with their top pick……….With a small pool of only 27 players its not complex to narrow your search down and focus on just 1 or 2 positions……….If somebody plummets down the draft board unexpectedly thats different……Other then that theres not a big glaring difference between the avialable players. History prooves it.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:30 pm
@JJ I hear you. You aren’t wrong but I think like Marine automatically when it comes to BPA. It’s BPA that is remotely sensible. If the BPA is a kicker in the 3rd round, we pass. You hear me Jason Licht. We pass. I’m kidding. I’m a J Licht fan. Great GM
April 24th, 2022 at 8:31 pm
^We get our P/K Matt Araiza in the 4th.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:35 pm
@ JimmyJack
My hope is there are at least 3 maybe 4 QBs selected in round 1. For every mediocre QB drafted this year in round one – is one more solid player that slides to the Bucs.
All i’m saying is we need to be flexible. There is bound to be a few highly rated players that fall to the Bucs – IDL, CB, Edge maybe WR…
RB and TE will hopefully be addressed in rounds 3 and 4.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:37 pm
TE next year….Gronk will be back, trust me….its calculated.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:40 pm
Please no Max. Say it ain’t so. Actually, that wouldn’t be the worst pick in the 4th round. I’m still a fan of picking punter/kickers in no round. Truthfully, unless we trade up in the 4th, I don’t even think he is there anyway.
April 24th, 2022 at 8:43 pm
Well, we need someone there, and it is an important position. Dude punts 80 yrds, lol….yeah, probably wont be there at the bottom of the 4th…but if so, better snag him.
April 24th, 2022 at 9:01 pm
Get Brady whatever he needs to win the SB. He more than any other knows how to win the Super Bowl. All he needs is a ‘good enough’ defense to hold the enemy to under 25 points. Worry about next year…next year.
April 24th, 2022 at 9:16 pm
There’s a couple corners, neither of whom will likely be available at #27. I wouldn’t be bummed if we moved up
April 24th, 2022 at 9:28 pm
Daniel Faalele could be a steal if Jason can get the guy in a later round. He was an OT in college but could be a guard in the Buc’s Offense and can drive block anyone. 6’8, 387 pounds with a 35” reach.
April 24th, 2022 at 9:56 pm
Who in the hell wants to waste yet another draft pick on a running back? You dopes are the same ones saying we HAD to draft someone a couple of years ago and that’s how we ended up with Vaughn, instead of getting depth at corner, or a defensive lineman, or an offensive line, literally pretty much anywhere else we could have used that pick.
RB’s are available everywhere. The Bucs picked up Fournette for nothing, and he’s been great. That’s how you get a RB, you don’t waste a 3rd rounder on someone, in particular in a year when the RB’s aren’t even all that good.
Now, if you want to spend a 3rd or 4th on a RB who is actually a return specialist, that I’d totally be for. But that’s not what you dopes want, you want a new RB every year, even when we got one.
April 24th, 2022 at 10:00 pm
Marine we just see things different.
I think the Bucs already know what position they are looking for. We have done nothing for our front 7 this offseason, that looks like the direction.
I also wouldnt mind to see Bowles get a DB either. He has been elite developing drafted guys.
Draft defense and if some insanely talented offensive guy is so much better now you are talking trade territory and Im listening…….But from what I have heard this draft is not loaded with studs. I barely know name of that #1 pick from Michigan.
April 24th, 2022 at 11:21 pm
We need to trade Brady for Jameis we need a real leader and winning player who won’t quit on his team
April 25th, 2022 at 12:45 am
I don’t particularly care which side of the ball it is on, here’s hoping the trenches get plenty of love in the draft. Hoping for DT and G pretty early. This game of fancy foosball is won in the trenches.
April 25th, 2022 at 8:16 am
D-LINE…D-LINE…D-LINE AT #27….UNLESS a killer top notch guard falls to 27…
April 25th, 2022 at 9:28 am
Bucs can easily get quality guard or Dline at 27 , however if you want a player to get real excited about , that guy is Devin Lloyd from Utah-if you have not watched his film please refrain from touching the keyboard as Lloyd is a freakishly athletic and high football IQ linebacker that will be the ideal replacement for LVD. Lloyd has a nose for the ball and makes tackles in space with surety. Lloyd can cover extremely well and that trait in a LB is rare. By trading away some picks and moving up Bucs will also spend less on draft. Pats can be coerced into a trade as Bucs and Pats trade regularly. Bucs drafting Lloyd is a no brainer. Ed Ingram at guard will still be available in 3rd.