Todd Bowles Talks Common Sense Versus Analytics
April 1st, 2022
Head coach Todd Bowles
Joe always suspected that Bucco Bruce Arians valued the reams of analytic data delivered to his desk as little more than rough toilet paper.
But what about new head coach Todd Bowles and the rest of the staff?
Bowles was talking analytics yesterday during his visit to SiriusXM NFL Radio.
He said he relies on them and uses them “a great deal, believe me.” But Bowles added what the data nerds don’t like hearing, that the human element and common sense must win out.
“We have to understand when the situation is right. [When] analytics say go for it on fourth down and you’ve already failed a couple times before, then you gotta have a football element to it, as well,” Bowles said.
“We don’t want to go blame everything on analytics. We gotta be football coaches, as well. When you know you’re getting stoned and you keep doing it, then it’s shame on you.”
Bowles said his big role is to keep that “coaching element” when assessing analytic data and it’s value.
Joe wonders what the data nerds computed about the big blitz that led to Cooper Kupp’s deadly deep catch to effectively end the Bucs’ 2021 season?
April 1st, 2022 at 9:36 am
“When you know you’re getting stoned and you keep doing it, then it’s shame on you.” I hope he has that same wisdom with his excessive blitz calls. You can’t get away with a 40% blitz rate against good QBs. It will work against the Justin Fields of the world who don’t know what they are doing but it will kill you against QBs like Matt Stafford
April 1st, 2022 at 9:40 am
Analytics about blitzing stafford was ignored
April 1st, 2022 at 9:53 am
Common sense and analytics both said play coverage in that situation but Bowles went all Bill Sheridan — except his guys didn’t know the play call anyway. They just stood there.
Poor situational football, awful situational play call, no execution whatsoever, nothing for any of the 11 on the field that said “Watch out for Cooper Kupp.”
And Todd is now our head coach.
April 1st, 2022 at 9:54 am
I notice from that last sentence Joe that you’ll never let go of that last play. And yet you’ve never taken a definitive stand to my recollection on whether the problem was play selection or player execution. Could be both but doubtful. Personally believe it was lousy player execution
April 1st, 2022 at 10:06 am
Common sense tells me we need some more help on D.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:10 am
Everybody must get stoned.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:14 am
Blitzing Stafford had not worked all day, yet with the game on the line, we blitzed anyway and got burned.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:17 am
It’s going to be interesting to see if Bowles gives complete autonomy to Leftwich and Brady on offensive calls. When you’re in charge it becomes a matter of total trust that your coaches protect your job. Let’s face it if Bowles were to fail he may never get another chance again.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:22 am
Heavy use of blitz may explain why we were Top 5
In missed tackles last years. Puts young secondary in many stressed situations and often led to big plays as well when we don’t get home on the
Blitz. Still like Todd but I do hope he has learned from his Jets days. Clock management was his Achilles heel. Excited for the future! LFG Bucs!
April 1st, 2022 at 10:23 am
For the those who think Todd Bowle’s late blitz lost us the Rams game consider that it was his defense that got four turnovers in the last 31 minutes of the game. Around the league, Bowle’s is/was considered one of the top five defensive coordinators.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:28 am
Already he is giving us answers that contradict his actions–he did not listen to anything except ego. He ignored analytics, common sense and human element. He blitzed Stafford despite all of it pointing to a certain fail, he needs to address that play loud and clear otherwise he just looks like a fool.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:28 am
No Buddha it was Rams choking and doing stupid sht things.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:29 am
Common sense tells you when Brady can score 30 points against the Rams defense with only Evens, Gronk, and Lenny, it’s time to get to work on the defense.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:34 am
Let Brady manage the clock and game in the last few minutes.
April 1st, 2022 at 10:55 am
Oxyc: Analytics about blitzing stafford was ignored.
You are absolutely right.
April 1st, 2022 at 11:12 am
Nice HC Grover!!!
April 1st, 2022 at 11:34 am
Sometimes common sense is a crap shoot…..
April 1st, 2022 at 12:28 pm
Poor offense (Brady had his lucky charm with him or he would have gotten killed) and injuries helped Rams win that game. Common sense, intuition along with analytics helps getting through life in general, not just sports entertainment.
April 1st, 2022 at 1:00 pm
HC Grover everybody must get stoned…Ahhhh beautiful
April 1st, 2022 at 1:41 pm
@Buddha
“it was his defense that got four turnovers in the last 31 minutes of the game.”
Buddha we don’t do nuance here or look for any explanations besides those that make us feel good. I couldn’t agree with your take more and yet as I read it I knew someone would object to your positive take.
Voila the very next poster!
“No Buddha it was Rams choking and doing stupid sht things.”
This is the very epitome of what I have been “whining” about according to one poster.
There are many ways to look at anything. Was it ones team good play or another teams bad play. Simple here though. If it was BA or his coaching staff anything good was either do to the other teams suckitude, the greatness of Tom Brady or simple luck.
I struggled giving Sean Payton his due. I never liked him after bountygate and I’m obviously totally biased against him as a Buc’s fan. But damn the guy is a great coach whether I wish to admit it or not. It’s not all the luck of having HOF Drew Brees at QB…Bountygate…Payton did it. But guess what…he made some real freaking mistakes along the way as well…again…”bountygate”!
I get cheap shotting the opponents…lacks class but I frequently catch myself doing it as well…but cheap shotting your own team??????
April 1st, 2022 at 2:33 pm
He really gon make this statement after calling that BS play to lose to the Rams boy please GTFOH I was at the Cowboys game in person and watched him blitz a lot & hardly ever get to qb & the wr’s were running wild after the catch and he did it consistently throughout the year all the way to the final loss!
April 1st, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Obviously our blitzing scheme is a double edged sword. While many are still complaining about the zero high call on the Rams in the playoffs, there were other reasons we lost that game too. Run blitzes surely account for our high blitz rate and players like LVD, White, and Whitehead have feasted for years in this scheme as well as our defense being ranked number one against the run. TAKEAWAYS are also a huge factor in teams making the playoffs and oor blitz heavy scheme has certainly helped contribute to our ability to takeaway the ball
April 1st, 2022 at 4:22 pm
Has anyone asked Bowles what his thought process was on calling a 0-blitz?
Forget analytics, common sense says you play cover-2 zone or something. Enough to keep them away from a game winning TD or FG.
I mean, we wouldn’t be having this discussion if Suh got that sack. But, what makes it worse is the players weren’t even set on what the play was or what their role was. It was a risky call and bad execution. A recipe for disaster.
I can’t believe that Winfield Jr. was caught flat-footed on the one WR shredding our D.
April 1st, 2022 at 4:58 pm
“When you know you’re getting stoned and you keep doing it, then it’s shame on you.”
… well, shame on me.
Judging by your rambling incoherent post, shame on you too, stpetebucsfan
April 1st, 2022 at 10:53 pm
That last defensive play vs the Rams is an easy target for criticism.
Because the most important game of the season was lost as a result.
Common football sense says you lay back in Cover 2 or similar – keep everything in front of you and TACKLE inbounds. And hopefully at worst in that situation – you use up the clock and force the Rams into trying a 60+ yard FG attempt.
But instead Bowles went for the jugular and struck out.
A sack there (which Suh was close to) sends the game into overtime and the Bucs had ALL the momentum…
It seems like a lot longer – but its only been 3 1/2 years since Mike Smith was calling ‘plays’ for the Buccaneers Defense. Remember??? Remember how PAINFUL it was to watch our corners playing 10 yards off on 3rd and 4?
At least Bowles is aggressive. At least he TRIES to force the action and dictate to the offense. Its hard to do in a league that so heavily ‘protects’ (favors) QBs and WRs these days – but Bowles takes more ‘shots’ at getting pressure to hopefully force a big play than most Defensive play callers.
When you live by the sword – you sometimes die by the sword. And thats basically what happened on that last Rams play.
Maybe we should occasionally remind ourselves how utterly INEPT the Buccaneers defense was under The Smiths – Lovie and Mike 2014>2018.
And count our blessings that we have a coach who has an aggressive mind set.
April 3rd, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Did you see any other teams fighting over getting Bowle’s as their head coach????? No …..poor hire.