Depth By Stats
April 17th, 2022
Fun with numbers.
Joe is accused by some of being anti-stats. That’s nonsense.
Joe is anti-twisted stats. Joe learned in high school you can always twist stats to help prove a point. And these stat nerds who use the terms “adjusted” or “expected” — that’s just trolling.
Joe does not care at all for the sometimes pompous arses who push their statistical litter like they just invented the game of football and they are the final word on the game. Joe is forever irked by those who believe — with zero culpability — that stats should determine every GD thing on a field from what flavor of gum Sean Payton chews to the temperatures of overpriced beers at the stadium.
Joe is very much a proponent of NextGen stats and believes stats can and should enhance sports, not dictate or dominate them. For example, the Wall Street spreadsheeters have absolutely destroyed baseball beyond recognition and simple joy. They’ve also done a number on basketball.
Thankfully, the nerds are having a much tougher time killing football.
So in addition to NextGen stats, Joe also likes the intel pumped out by the SIS crowd. Joe doesn’t often cite their work because, well, they hide it behind paywalls. Joe doesn’t normally like bailing people out with his wallet because they are too lazy to sell ads.
The SIS guys recently put out a (free!) draft guide and in it they break down each team’s needs and depth. The graphic for the Bucs is below and here is a description of their conclusions based on a point system.
Bucs fans shouldn’t need to be calculus majors to figure how SIS determined needs through the graphic below.
The dark blue dots represent the biggest needs of the Bucs, per SIS.
For the 5-technique defensive ends, Joe is going to guess this graphic was made before Will Gholston re-signed. On the right side of the defense, that would be Ndamukong Suh’s position.
Tight end? We are all still waiting for foot-rubbing Rob Gronkowski.
Left guard? Whoever is taking over for Ali Marpet is unknown. The leading candidates are Aaron Stinnie, who has limited experience and Robert Hainsey, who to the best of Joe’s knowledge has yet to take a snap at left guard in an NFL game.
Now, on to the light blue dots. Cornerback? Joe guesses the SIS crowd is not impressed by Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting. This is a position Joe has been stomping his feet for Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht to draft in the first round next week — yes, next week!
Outside linebacker? Well, who knows if Jason Pierre-Paul returns and of course his heir apparent, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, still has question marks.
So you see, sometimes stats are fun and enlightening. But one doesn’t need to be part of the pocket-protector set to know his team and its needs.
Ranking Bucs’ needs and depth by stats.
April 17th, 2022 at 12:15 am
I know some people like to talk highly of defense …like they were the reason for our recent success 😂 Cause bowles promotion does make me nervous
But go back and watch the games. And last year too (2020). Ive seen the games multiple times…just watched the jets game tonight. Their offense went up and down the field at will. And yes i know we had injuries. But that was the jets doing whatever they wanted. Remember they tried to put game away with around 2 minutes on 4th down. We stopped them. So yah defense there . But our defense is a huge liability. Sorry haters but brady s magic, these last 2 years would not be very memorable.
Got to go defense …but i am fine if they take guard / tight end at earlier pick
April 17th, 2022 at 12:15 am
^ without
April 17th, 2022 at 12:53 am
You ain’t wrong Bird.
April 17th, 2022 at 12:54 am
Bird. Brady threw 3 picks in the NFC championship game the defense stepped up and won the game for us . Facts!!!
April 17th, 2022 at 2:55 am
The graph shows two five technique positions on the DL with no 3 technique. Arians stated we have plenty of strength on the line and he now wants speed which would be refercing the 3 technique. I would say Suh is not a prototypical 3 technique but he’s so good he can get away playing anywhere. I’m not sure if that was a typo or if they believe Suh lines up more over the tackle than outside the guard. 3-4 defenses don’t always play a 3 technique.
The stats don’t show linebacker. If we have an injury to either Levonte or White we’re in trouble. If the draft plays out so the best linebacker is available take him.
At #27 I think we have a shot at Devin Lloyd linebacker, Wyatt DL, Treylon Burks WR, Green or Johnson Guard, Andrew Booth CB or there maybe a really good SS. This would be my favorite draft order.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:07 am
1st round: TRAVIS JONES (DT Connecticut)
2nd round: COBY BRYANT (CB Cincinnati)
3rd round: COLE STRANGE (OL Chattanooga)
4th round: JOSH PASCHAL (DE Kentucky)
7th round: TRENT THOMPSON (S San Diego St)
7th round: LUCAS KRULL (TE Pitt)
That’s part of why they need to stop trading away their draft picks also because some of their needs they won’t be able to address until later on in the draft.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:15 am
@Tony
Travis Jones is not a first round talent. We’d have to trade down 15 spots to make it a value pick. I don’t believe Jones will ever be more than a rotational player nor will be a major contributor this year. This years crop of DTs is weak I’d rather wait till next year to grab one instead drafting a DT two years in row because we didn’t get right in this draft.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:28 am
Only 4 NFL teams gave up less points than Bucs in 2021 and 3 of the teams were in AFC.
The league is all about scoring points , and it starts with the OLine.
A 27th 1st round pick will likely be a project unless it’s an interior OLineman – likely an instant starter. Pick a Left Guard.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:34 am
I want difference makers with the first two picks.
Even if it’s a non obvious need like ILB. David and White miss games. Corner, WR, if they’re difference makers.
Later a TE or guard or RB, BPA.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:35 am
Wyatt (spelled right?) Would be my fav.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:40 am
I enjoy going to baseball games and especially eating the awesome food, but watching it on TV is boring as sin. Basketball has been horrid for at least twenty years and I’ve yet to find any reason to go back to it. These stat nerds are for the birds, but Frelund is certainly highly intelligent and cute.
April 17th, 2022 at 4:53 am
So Vita Vea is a mid tier NT??
Also – Not giving enough credit to Godwin and Dean.
April 17th, 2022 at 5:56 am
Oneil
Like i said the brady haters. Glad you showed up. Amazing how you typically show up for two reasons: when someone wants to give brady credit or someone takes a shot at jameis. you have repeated the same thing for two plus years. Copy paste repeat. Everyone knows why you hate brady. And the defense has played good in limited games the last two years.
2020 – packers / broncos / lions / vikings /saints / chiefs
2021 – patriots/dolphins/ bears / giants/ saints/ eagles
The playoffs super bowl year of course the defense stepped up. (But brees was liability and oline had what 2 starters in chiefs) But it wasnt in the green bay game. You always bring up the jump balls brady threw up and were picked off. Of course bad decisions. And now he makes those jumpballs to godwin. But , The 50 yard dime before half put the game away. 2020 playoffs defense came to play in saints and chiefs. Not Green Bay and washington. But you have to stick to your script. And every time the defense steps up (which you can count almost on one hand per season) you scream defense defense. And its the team. Not brady one bit. Brady throws for 400 and 4. Its the team.
Interesting enough. If I remember correctly ,wasnt it jameis that won games before brady came along? The messiah carried the team to victory. It was ok for you to say that. And then add that jameis had no defense / no line/ no run game. So it wasnt about defense at all before. Nor the team. Blah blah blah. Of course you did. Its in the joebucfan archives vault. Go check you out.
April 17th, 2022 at 6:05 am
FACT: Bucs won it all in 2020, but didn’t in 2021. The major difference? Defense stepped up big-time during the 2020 playoffs; not-so-much in the 2021 playoffs. What the team did during the regular season to get to the playoffs was nice, but it’s what the team does DURING the playoffs that puts the ring on the finger.
Bucs had essentially the same defense BOTH years. Despite a horrendous injury record in 2021, Bucs’ defense actually gave up FEWER points per game in 2021 (20.8 PPG average in 2021 vs 22.2 PPG average in 2020).
Thus far we’ve added Logan Ryan & Keanu Neal to our Secondary (kudos) but have lost Suh & McLendon from our DLine, and JPP & Minter from our LB corps. We haven’t replaced any of them … YET. That’s a cumulative loss of 57 games (34 games started), 109 tackles, 10 sacks, 26 QB Hits, 13 TFLs & 2 FF. And oh ya, 1902 defensive snaps … ALL from our Front-7. Adding Ryan & Neal doesn’t do diddly to replace that loss.
What would? Re-sign Ndamukong Suh AND draft a DT on Day 1/2 (to replace McLendon & be Suh’s eventual successor) PLUS draft a DE/OLB on Day 1/2 (to replace JPP and/or be his eventual successor), PLUS draft a quality LB on Day 1/2 also (to replace Minter AND hopefully be LVD’s eventual successor). I originally felt that drafting a CB was more important than grabbing a ILB, but no more. Lavonte’s knee & ankle could easily cost us another championship if 2022 is a repeat of 2021. As great as he is, when the wheels go it’s pretty hard to play fast.
April 17th, 2022 at 6:20 am
Nice I guess you’re not posting what I took the time to write. I guess it’s another Twitter. Whatever it’s your prerogative.
April 17th, 2022 at 7:06 am
@ defense rules
Those defensive numbers are because they faced a mediocre slew of offenses/quarterbacks last season. The eye test says that defense wasn’t good and a liability as @Bird pointed out in the first comment on this article…
April 17th, 2022 at 7:22 am
We don’t need a QB, or KICKER. We need a TE and a DT and an edge, but only if they’re good. The TE class looks like absolute poop so don’t go reaching. Fish out a FA or UDFA.
April 17th, 2022 at 7:33 am
Oneilbuc, tell us how many picks crab legs had for the bucs in the championship game? IF your hero had made it to such a game and dropped 3 picks you would be talking about all his yards and TDs and those picks we Mike’s fault, you change the narrative to fit your opinions every time, and EVERYONE sees that you are driving the wrong way on a one way street. TOM BRADY is the reason we won the super bowl, that “great” defensive you talk about would have had its spirit crushed with famous at qb.
April 17th, 2022 at 8:00 am
If you believe too much in stats, how about this one……every person averages one teSticle & one tit.
April 17th, 2022 at 8:05 am
Forgot about linebacker Davids older and nursing an injury. The book is still out on Britt if he was capable of being a full time starter it would have shown by now.
April 17th, 2022 at 8:16 am
Pickgrin, The chart says that the bucs have a mid level need at NT. Not that Vea is a mid level NT.
April 17th, 2022 at 8:20 am
As Mark twain so perfectly lamented, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
April 17th, 2022 at 8:50 am
Red-sparrow Says:
April 17th, 2022 at 7:06 am
@ defense rules
Those defensive numbers are because they faced a mediocre slew of offenses/quarterbacks last season. The eye test says that defense wasn’t good and a liability as @Bird pointed out in the first comment on this article…
Your eye test fails to take in the many worse defenses around the league.
Really, list them out — All the defenses that were better than the Bucs defense these last two years. It is a very short list.
April 17th, 2022 at 9:34 am
Bird don’t know anything even where to find some seeds lol he’s a bucs fan lol
April 17th, 2022 at 10:06 am
Red-sparrow … Back in 2018, the year before Todd Bowles arrives as our DC, the Bucs’ defense gave up 464 pts in 16 games (29.0 PPG), 6134 total yards, and ranked #31 in the NFL. I’d say that ‘the eye test says that defense wasn’t good and a liability’.
Last year, Bowles’ 3rd as our DC, the Bucs defense gave up 353 points in 17 games (20.8 PPG). 5635 total yards, and ranked #5 in the NFL. You can attribute that remarkable improvement to our defense facing ‘a mediocre slew of offenses/quarterbacks’ last season if you wish, but I’d say that you need to go see another optometrist to get another eye test.
April 17th, 2022 at 10:10 am
@DR agree.
Our defense passes the stats test and the eyeball test.
I would ask Red Sparrow with his eye balls to name 10 teams that had better defenses these last two years.
April 17th, 2022 at 10:12 am
How’s does a defense step up when they give up 28 points and should of lost the game if not for a bad call by Lefleur? Oneilbucyall Brady also threw 3 touchdowns, but I guess those don’t count. Only 1 pick led to poients. Defense also almost lost the WFT game where Brady 3 4 tds and two more that Godwin dropped. Oh and 4tds in the SB. I will give the D credit, if not for D, Saints could of been a loss. If you can not win games averaging 31 points a game your D stinks. Why am I arguing with a guy that would rather have Trask at QB this season than the best to ever play the game?
April 17th, 2022 at 10:17 am
I didn’t understand not signing Gilmore. He was the best DB on the market and instantly would’ve made them better. Maybe they didn’t think he would fit. The bucs run a ton of zone, too much for my taste. Teams are going to throw on the bucs again, mostly because Brady is going to score in the thirties. The NFL is backwards now. It used to be, stopping the run was priority one. The bucs have a modern day dilemma. So many teams are throwing on first down, that the bucs vaunted run defense is mostly wasted. Now obviously you can’t let teams run up and down the field, the defense will wear out. But, I’d like to see smaller boxes, at least to begin the game.
April 17th, 2022 at 10:47 am
That graphic basically looks exactly as i would expect. Have literally nobody at 3 technique, tight end and guard is thin (although guard we have a few potential guys). Corner could use a guy in the mix . Only thing that surprises me is I’d say we are in trouble if either tackle goes down (guess they like wells has played lots of snaps as extra guy). Also feel we could use a you g guy behind white and David.
April 17th, 2022 at 11:58 am
Aaron
You have been going rounds on jameis speed bag for a long time. Who were you before. Is that big hog? Jameis almighty. One of the jameis nutsmugglers. Could be dapostman. But yah, You are a bucs fan. Let me guess noles fan?
Born in 70”s in largo. Didnt give two craps about brady before he came here. Actually hated pats / brady cause they were always in super bowl. But when he came here and yah boy got let go. It was a great day. So happy that he did. Im glad you are not a fan of brady. Yah you should hate the greatest ever to come to our small market. But nice try me being some pats first or brady first.
April 17th, 2022 at 12:56 pm
Whatever. Finish the game at the end of a 4th quarter. That includes a special teams unit who like to give up long runbacks at the end of a game – to make it exciting I guess.
April 17th, 2022 at 3:50 pm
Lol 😆 🤣 yall call me a Brady hater because I don’t give him all the credit for us winning the superbowl like the media do. I will never give all the credit or most of the credit to no quarterback regardless who the quarterback is . Brady helped us win just like everyone else that played on the feild. I don’t buy in to media narratives like yall do football will always be a team sport to me . I don’t give win losses to a quarterback or no other player. The only time most of yall give the team credit is when we lose then it’s everyone on the team fault except for Brady when we lose. Brady played bad in every game against the saints and the Rams and yall still don’t blame him for nothing our offense put a donut against the saints and yall still didn’t blame Brady for nothing it was everyone else fault lol lol 😂 😆!! And as far as Jamies goes I don’t care about what yall say yall because facts or facts Jamies look like a different quarterback with saints than did with the bucs. And guess what Brady is done after this year so I who’s going to be the next scapegoat next year is the question for yall to worry about lol 😆 😂. I guess it will be Kyle Trask because the hate for him has already started on this site for most of yall. Plus ain’t no more legendary quarterbacks who another team develop will be available for yall to try and make him a all time buc it’s time to develop our own quarterback now for the first time in franchise history.
April 17th, 2022 at 4:12 pm
1st Rams game Brady got the lead with just over 2 minutes left in the game. The defense gave up a TD to Trevor Simeon in less than 40 seconds. Brady had the ball back deep in Bucs after a special teams penalty with 1:46 left and 1 TO, you expect miracles every time he gets the ball. The odds of coming back to win in that game is about 12%. Not sure what your talking about the Rams, Bucs D let up 37 points in the first game and Bucs scored like 24 or 27 and we all know the score was tied at the end of the Rams playoff game when Brady left the field. I will give you second Saints game.
April 17th, 2022 at 4:23 pm
That Rams game should have been over so what they started playing more lose football and they started to choked the game away and we came back. Brady threw a pick 6 to lose the saints game even though I don’t make pick sixes a quarterback fault because just because you throw a pick that doesn’t mean it should be a automatic touchdown . I don’t even give strip sack fumble on quarterback when they are trying to throw the ball that’s on the offensive line to me . But it’s amazing to how yall never blame Brady for nothing that’s what I’m saying. Yall have made our superbowl win a Brady superbowl and I now I understand why Skip Bayless call us the suckaneers . This is the worst fan base with no pride in the team in the entire NFL.
April 17th, 2022 at 4:33 pm
Oneilbucyall you don’t make it through the first round of the playoffs without Brady if Bucs make to the playoffs. Why don’t you address, Philly, Saints game 1, Rams both games, Dallas, Bills,WFT, Indy & Jets, you want to put all of them on Brady to?
April 17th, 2022 at 4:48 pm
Oneilbucyall so you give Brady credit for losses but the football is a team game and he doesn’t get credit for wins. I am pretty sure the world knows Brady doesn’t sack QB’s or stop Rb’s, or pass and run block or gets ints, or catches TD passes, play on ST’s etc. It just so happens that for whatever reason if a QB wins or loses it is counted as a stat. Blame the analysts not Brady. If you rather see Trask then you don’t care if the Bucs win or lose so your clearly more of a Brady hater than a Bucs fan.
April 17th, 2022 at 4:53 pm
Got to strongly agree with you Joe that the nerd stat masters ruined baseball ⚾. I also think the building of super teams ruined basketball 🏀. If this off-season is an example of things to come in the NFL the building of super teams could ruin football 🏈 as well. They need to change how easily the cap can be manipulated. A 4 year/100m contract should count 25m each year against the cap with no ability for void years and signing bonuses to kick the can down the road. It’s ridiculous that a team can sign a guy to a contract of 25m and only 3m counts against the cap. We are going to end up with a lopsided league if we already haven’t.
April 17th, 2022 at 5:00 pm
Baseball is completely unwatchable now. It’s actually insulting if not violence-inducing to watch. Beer-league softball is more entertaining. smh 🙁
April 17th, 2022 at 5:12 pm
Hockey does it right, the cap is the cap, no.funny money.
April 17th, 2022 at 5:48 pm
Hockey has it right? Vegas just put 5 players on IR to make cap room, everyone tries to job the system.
April 17th, 2022 at 6:21 pm
Not to beat a dead horse but I beg the NFL to immediately change the way the salary cap is being manipulated to build these SUPER TEAMS! It will end up like the NBA with 90 percent of the league not being competitive.
April 17th, 2022 at 11:05 pm
I, too, lost my childhood love of baseball and basketball as the years went by. When I was kid baseball cards and stats were still a thing. I had several reasons for sticking with football and it becoming my number one sport.
Football is a team sport that mimics combat even more so. It has elements of chess as well as the gladiator aspect. (If they successfully turn the NFL into “flag footbal” with their constant rule changes they will finally lose me. However, I’m old enough that I don’t think I’m going to live long enough to see that happen. 🙄)
Go Bucs!
April 17th, 2022 at 11:16 pm
Joe still enjoys the NCAA tournament.