Numbers Tell A Different Story On Carson Wentz
March 1st, 2022
Misguided evals.
Man, Joe cannot remember the last time such a high-profile player in his early 20s went from MVP candidate to suddenly sliding to where it now appears he could be headed to his final NFL team.
Former first-round pick Carson Wentz was fabulous in 2017. He had the Eagles rolling and it looked like he was on his way to the MVP award. Then late in the season, while scoring a touchdown at Los Angeles, a brutal blow blew out his knee. Wentz hasn’t been remotely the same since.
In fact, he seems to grow worse. Now it appears a coach that stuck his neck out to get him last year is fed up and looking to move on. That would be Frank Reich and the Colts. But hold up, said stat head and follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN.
Folks ready to shovel dirt in Wentz’s face are overlooking a major element, Barnwell believes.
Last year, Barnwell types, Wentz was having a nice season until he came down with The Sickness. His game never recovered. As a result, given an offseason for his body to recover fully, Barnwell is of the mind Wentz might be a steal. And Barnwell is looking right at Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht.
I’m going to argue that the Colts should keep Wentz when I hit the AFC teams, but if he is actually about to be traded or released, the Bucs should go out of their way to get a deal done. Wentz had a dismal end to the season after returning from a bout with COVID-19, but over the entire season, he ranked ninth in Total QBR and 13th in both passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.
Wentz might not have the ceiling some saw for him after the 2017 season, when he played MVP-caliber football and helped the Eagles push for the top seed in the NFC and an eventual Super Bowl, but a solid quarterback should be all the Bucs need to repeat as NFC South champions. Wentz’s size and pocket presence also make him the prototypical Bruce Arians quarterback, with the Bucs coach comparing him to Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger during that breakout 2017 campaign.
If the Bucs can get Wentz for a midround pick, that would be an easy transition from the Tom Brady era.
Here is the thing you have to ask yourself: Do you believe Blaine Gabbert, a former first-round pick like Wentz, is any better or worse than Wentz? Because if the Bucs still believe they have one more season left to make a Super Bowl run, is Wentz a big enough upgrade over Gabbert when you factor in the learning curve of learning Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians’ offense?
Even Arians has admitted it takes a new quarterback roughly 3/4 of the season to get comfortable with it.
More evidence: When the Bucs signed Brady, they thought 2021 was the year they would make a run to the Super Bowl, perhaps not 2020. Why? They thought it would take a while for Brady to get the offense down.
So if the Bucs figured there would be a learning curve for Brady, they likely feel the same way about other quarterbacks, which may be why Arians is slobbering over Gabbert in public.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:05 am
Would not trade for him but if hes released I would pick him up at a low price tag no guaranteed money.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:21 am
If he was close to free I might want to see him compete with Trask. The whole thing does, still, depend on Captain Checkbook.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:21 am
allbuccedup … We’ll have to stand in line with at least 10 other teams who’ll also be dreaming of getting an experienced QB with a winning record for a ‘low price tag no guaranteed money’. Heck I’m not even sure that Gabbert will sign for that.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:22 am
Trading a mid-round pick for him before he’s released makes sense….there are so many teams looking to improve their QB situation…..
I could see him going to Carolina or the Saints…..for example.
Trading for him takes him off the FA market.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:31 am
This dude puts up a very similar stat-line to Jameis Winston. But is far less durable. Why would the Bucs entertain signing or trading for this bum? Sign Jameis as a free agent over this waste of space.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:31 am
I would rather see Kyle at least be given a chance to compete for starter before gifting it to Gabby. We’ve seen Gabbert start but Kyle’s in his second season and as fresh as any QB available.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:33 am
The thing that I’m still hung up on is Reich. Didn’t he basically hand pick Wentz and now he is giving up on him? That just doesn’t pass the sniff test. Wentz won’t have that stellar run game here either. But Wentz sure does sound better than our current options.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:39 am
Waste of money… How many more wins will we get for the high cost?
So with Wentz we win 6-8 games and with Gabbert/Trask we win 4-6 games…
Is that really worth blowing our salary cap up and not signing several other needed free agents?
Maybe for some of you but not for me.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:39 am
This makes the most sense of all the QB options available. Wentz and Trask. Plenty of money to sign our FA’s
March 1st, 2022 at 9:50 am
It’s the law of supply and demand. This is a very bad year for available QB’s with a weak draft as well.
Buy low and sell high. Now is not the time to buy! See what we can get out of Gabbert and Trask and start resigning core players. If neither Trask nor Gabbert is the answer we’ll still have a great team and can try for a QB when perhaps the market is a little more favorable.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:53 am
Probably better than Gabbert but not enough to trade. Maybe a sixth or seventh.
March 1st, 2022 at 9:59 am
I’m holding my nose and warming up to Gabbert as a stopgap measure. The Bucs must keep their picks to spread on both sides of the ball.
March 1st, 2022 at 10:01 am
I don’t get Reich either. Wentz has a vertical game. I keep thinking combining him with Arians is super bowl worthy. IMO, his touch on the ball and position of throws is so much better than Gabbert, it’s not even comparable. I think he is well worth a second round pick. The only thing I don’t like is his salary, but I wouldn’t risk him hitting the open market.
March 1st, 2022 at 10:04 am
We’ve already lost two quality starters and will likely lose more.
Our schedule is brutal.
We’re not going to the Super Bowl.
Build for the future.
Don’t waste a season on washed-up has-beens.
Start Trask.
March 1st, 2022 at 10:04 am
And his stat line isn’t even close to Winston’s. In New Orleans, the only reason Jameis’s int’s were down was because Peyton wouldn’t kept a tight leash on him. He has a 3/1 TD to int ratio career.
March 1st, 2022 at 10:42 am
IMO Wentz is likely a slightly better option than Gabbert, but he’s not worth trading for at his current contact and/or giving away any draft pick earlier than day 3. If Bruce/Byron/Jason disagree that’s fine, but based on Wentz’s body of work I see more NFL journeyman/bridge QB or backup QB (just like Bridgewater, James, or most all of the guys being mentioned as a Brady replacement here on JBF). If he gets cut by Indy and can be signed at a reasonable price then sure, let him compete with Trask. Pretty much just adding another similar voice in the echo chamber here 😆
March 1st, 2022 at 11:52 am
Having watched all of the Colts games this past season as my dad lives in Indy, please stop with the Wentz talk. His “numbers” do not tell the story. He is broken sadly and we would be better off starting literally anyone else. He is Jameis without the passion.
March 1st, 2022 at 11:58 am
Too many injuries. He’s already falling apart.
March 1st, 2022 at 12:06 pm
Go get him if he is released, I think his game translates really well to what Arians and BL want to do with pushing the ball down the field
March 1st, 2022 at 12:12 pm
Rodger, Wilson, and Watson are the only ones worth mentioning but they appear to be unavailable. Everyone else mentioned are basically the same tier of QB with Gabbert having the advantage of being in the system for three years so I would like them to keep their capital keep there draft picks and take their medicine and keep building up the team for either Trask or explore options in a stronger QB class in the draft of 2023.
March 1st, 2022 at 12:12 pm
yeah sometimes in life you settle…
and wentz is starting to seem like a reasonable option at this point…
i would have been hard pressed to say it a coupe weeks back, but we’ve gotta get reasonable here…
he’s decent and we need at least decent at qb…
no one will just replace tom brady………….ever
March 1st, 2022 at 12:15 pm
I ponder if he has just been mishandled… He started off his career well…
If the QB brain trust can get him back to how he 1st played, the Bucs would be set at that position for years…
March 1st, 2022 at 12:20 pm
in the right situation, wentz could have a revival…
not sure this is the ideal situation for his revival, but you never know
March 1st, 2022 at 2:31 pm
I’m sure most Bucs fans hate the idea – but reality is that Jameis Winston is the best QB for the Buccaneers to bring in for 2022.
The Bucs went all in financially for 2020 and 2021 and netted a Super Bowl victory for the effort. Couldn’t be happier with the results!
Now that Brady is gone its time to pay the piper – get on the right side of the salary cap, get younger as a team, and position for success moving forward – without the best QB ever behind center.
There will be more and better FA and College QBs available in 2023 than this year’s offerings for one thing.
Overpaying with draft picks and cap space for a Jimmy G or Cousins or even Carr makes little to no sense.
The Bucs can probably sign Winston for less than $10M. He already knows the offense…. Sure he has a history of turning the ball over too much – but Sean Payton proved last year that there are ways to mitigate the risk and win games with Jaboo behind center.
If the Bucs aren’t rolling with just Trask and Gabbert this year – which IMO would probably be the wisest move looking forward – then Winston is the best, most talented, most affordable QB we can bring in to compete with Trask and Gabbert – and have a realistic chance of winning enough games to make the playoffs – where anything can happen if your team gets hot…..