Kings Against The Run
February 27th, 2022
Bucs DC Todd Bowles.
This is starting to encroach into territory reserved for the Bucs of the glory years with Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, John Lynch and Rondé Barber.
There is no question that Bucs defensive coordinator Todd Bowles puts a strong emphasis on stopping the run. He wants to turn opposing offenses into one-dimensional passing attacks.
In the NFL of a different era, this was almost always a winning formula. Today’s NFL, however, is a passing league. So is it smart to push teams into a pass-only mode? It’s an interesting topic and the only easy answer is if you have the secondary to cover, then yes.
Last year, the Bucs didn’t have that kind of secondary.
Largely due to injuries, teams found ways to expose the Bucs through the air. And Matt Stafford carved the Bucs’ pass defense apart in their final game.
Still, it’s a good thing to be excellent in one area of the defense. And the Bucs are not just good at stopping the run, they have been dominant since Bowles showed up.
The Bucs defense in the past three seasons has led the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game and rushing yards allowed per carry. That’s quite impressive.
Now if the Bucs can tighten up on the pass coverage, the Bucs defense may just be able to carry Carson Wentz and the Bucs offense to the playoffs.
Please don’t get Joe started on Teddy Bridgewater on this otherwise fine Sunday.
February 27th, 2022 at 12:23 am
It will go a long way in maintaining that if they re-sign (a healthy) JPP at a good price and Gholston.
February 27th, 2022 at 12:31 am
And Suh. He may be older but he still dominates.
I’m guessing Arians likes Wentz. We’ll see. You have to wonder if Arians lets himself go here. But he’s considered the QB whisperer. I wonder if he has thought if he helps went turn around his career and wins another super bowl at the same time, he’s forever the WH whisperer and he steps out of the goats shadow at the same time.
February 27th, 2022 at 5:11 am
Excellent fodder for debate Joe. I’ve often wondered if it’s REALLY ‘a good thing to be excellent in ONE area of defense’? Akin to the idea that if you sell out to be REALLY good at something BUT something else eats you alive, then are the results optimal?
In the Bucs’ defense case, it seems to be a double-edged sword. Bucs led the league in 2019-2021 period under Todd Bowles in Fewest Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (82.5 YPG) by a wide margin, yet we ranked #24 in Fewest Passing Yards Allowed Per Game (251.6 YPG). Put another way, Bucs ranked at the top of the Top-Third in Rushing Defense, but at the top of the Bottom-Third in Passing Defense. Is that good or bad?
If looked at in terms of Points Per Game Allowed, Bucs’ defense showed reasonable improvement during those 3 years. In 2019 we allowed 449 points (28.1 PPG). In 2020 we allowed 355 points (22.2 PPG) … very nice progress. In 2021 we allowed 353 points (20.8 PPG) … decent progress again, despite an injury-plagued season.
Points Allowed is the bottom line in my book, but how we’ve gotten there (improvement year-to-year) has been maddening at times. And especially the excessive blitzing by our interior LBs (overdoing that, at times, has left us unnecessarily vulnerable to the short passing game against some opponents IMO).
Still, Bucs’ defense has been amazingly consistent in one other area: Yards Allowed Per Play. In 2019 we allowed opponents 5503 yards in 1073 plays … 5.13 YPP average. In 2020 we allowed opponents 5234 yards in 1023 plays … 5.12 YPP average. And in 2021 we allowed opponents 5635 yards in 1093 plays … 5.16 YPP average. Considering all the different offenses we played against, THAT’S CONSISTENCY in my book.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:28 am
The Bucs D will only get worse bringing back Suh, and JPP, who will never be healthy again. The guy is shot. The Bucs need to replace both with younger more explosive players. Players whos practice time you don’t have to monitor to get them to Sunday. Everyone’s worrying about the QB, but this D line has 3 old FA’s not counting Gholston that need to be replaced. Even Gholston is on the other side of 30. Build that D line, and we will win.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:30 am
We are in a very tough spot…..Plugging holes in the offense will distract from strengthening our defense…
In order to maintain our strong run defense we need to resign or replace Suh, Gholston & probably JPP.
In order to strengthen our pass defense we need to sign Davis & Whitehead and add a CB.
All this while signing Godwin, Capp & acquiring a RB & TE.
A tall order…..and I haven’t even mentioned bringing in Teddy Bridgewater.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:46 am
A very tough spot indeed TBBF (nice Teddy jab BTW). Just the DLine alone … Suh & JPP are both close to generational 1st Rnd talents, HOF material IMO. Gholston is very underrated, and has really performed well under Bowles & has gotten many more snaps last 2 yrs (over 1100) than Vea has (830). Then add in McLendon who’s gotten 500 def snaps since joining us in 2020. All of those need to be replaced by comparable (preferably better) talent. I don’t see it happening on our budget.
Bucs would be well advised to re-sign Suh & Gholston as a minimum, recognizing that both will be on a snap count every game (apparently our $18 mil man Vea is also?). Then I’d draft (Top-3 Rnds) a DE and a DT to replace JPP & McLendon (and use the other to grab a CB).
February 27th, 2022 at 7:47 am
Teams do not even try to run because the pass defense was so lousy.
February 27th, 2022 at 7:54 am
And Plebeians against the pass. Big deal.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:04 am
@ Joesph..I see how you “slipped” Carson Wentz into this otherwise defensive post…you have inside scoop..no?
February 27th, 2022 at 8:12 am
Wentz? Really? After one year the Colts are ready to unload him for a bag of chips. Why pay 27m per yr for someone who is average at best.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:14 am
Great strategy King Bowles since there are only 4 or 5 teams in the league that are run first. King against the run and Joker against the pass. Wasn’t Bowles a DB? Apparently not a good one.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:35 am
Don’t see Tryon being a “king”. More like a situational player. JPP is a question mark now. Suh is long in the tooth and expensive. If the bucs can add some quality players to the defensive line they should stay near the top against the run. But they need to draft or get some free agent help.
February 27th, 2022 at 8:52 am
Please, the current defense is not even close to the late 90’s early 2000’s defenses. Those defenses could play the run but also could play the pass. This pass defense would make a quarterback from the school for the blind look like Joe Montana.
February 27th, 2022 at 9:00 am
Kings against the run, Jokers against the pass.
February 27th, 2022 at 9:32 am
TBBF, nice analysis of our defense. I guess my question for you is, how does 5.12 per play stack up against the rest of the league? If a RB had that many yards per play, it would be outstanding. I recognize that this averages includes long pass plays, but you’re also throwing in zeros on incompletions. So where in the league does a 5.12 yd/play average rank? Top 10? Top 5?
February 27th, 2022 at 9:42 am
Giving up less than 21 points per game is a winning formula in todays NFL.
Bowles achieved that last year while trying to cope with injuries to SMB, JPP, Davis, Dean, LD54, White and also losing Edwards for 3 games to suspension.
Its hard not to be pissed about the last defensive play call of the season – but Todd Bowles did a really good job in 2021 of getting the most out of a defense that never once started the same 11 players all season….
February 27th, 2022 at 10:04 am
Wentz sucks.
No freaking way do we sign him.
February 27th, 2022 at 10:11 am
Bowles completely messed up against Rams. Terrible instruction to defense
February 27th, 2022 at 10:26 am
DR, in regard to the ppg improvement, I agree that that is the statistical standard by which defensive success should be weighed. Having said that, I suspect that Bowles’ cannot take all all the credit here. First, the leap from yr 1 to 2 saw an influx of system players as well as familiarit with Bowles system; and the third yr leap is likely the result of strength of schedule.
To me a good coach is measured by flexibility regarding in game adjustments and prep. Watching Bowles defense attack the rams and saints 2x each the same exact way for the entire game, showed a lack of creativity and a 1 trick pony who’s run out of oats.
February 27th, 2022 at 10:27 am
Why run when can pass for 400 yards against this sorry a__ pass defense.
February 27th, 2022 at 10:54 am
Peasants against the pass
February 27th, 2022 at 11:00 am
Wentz couldn’t get it done with the Beastly Jonathan Taylor to had the rock to.
Not sure what he could do here.
February 27th, 2022 at 11:01 am
Really? That got tossed?
February 27th, 2022 at 11:02 am
guess I forgot to fill in my info. My bad
February 27th, 2022 at 12:01 pm
If Wentz couldn’t get it done with the best RB in the League hands down, I don’t know how he could do it here. Albeit if Godwin returns he will have a WAY better WR corps.
February 27th, 2022 at 12:07 pm
I do not want them to sign SUH back. He’s been great but last year he was nonexistent in almost every game. For the leadership and locker room presence on the line, I’d sign him back at an extremely reduced rate
February 27th, 2022 at 12:12 pm
ChiBuc … ‘a good coach is measured by flexibility regarding in game adjustments and prep. Watching Bowles defense attack the rams and saints 2x each the same exact way for the entire game, showed a lack of creativity and a 1 trick pony who’s run out of oats.’
I agree 100% with ‘flexibility’ being the key to coaching, and with Bowles not appropriately adjusting in the 2nd games against the Saints & Rams. As far as him being a ‘1 trick pony who’s run out of oats’ goes, we just parted company.
Do you REALLY believe that Bucs could’ve won the 2020 SB if our defense hadn’t really excelled down the stretch? (Me neither). And the guy orchestrating that was … ??? I’d say that those game plans showed that he was anything BUT a ‘1 trick pony’. Last year was a horror show in terms of injuries to our defense, and yet our defense actually IMPROVED in terms of PPG Allowed. And the guy orchestrating that was … ???
Sorry, but the Bucs have been incredibly blessed to have had Todd Bowles as our DC for these last 3 years. Has he been perfect? Nah, but then again, neither am I (don’t know you, so I won’t speak for you in that area).
The primary thing that fascinates me about the NFL is that these are the very best teams in the world going against each other in a violent sport, but only one of them KNOWS what’s about to happen on any given play. The offense KNOWS what play they’re going to run (and its’ variations), whereas the defense doesn’t, and has to be ready for ANYTHING. IOW 1 side is fairly proactive, while the other side is largely reactive. I suspect that there’s a LOT of guessing going on on the defensive side; guess wrong … or execute poorly … and you can really like a fool. Can think of quite a few plays last year where that was the case. LOTS of risk involved.
Todd Bowles has HIS way of dealing with that risk, and blitzing a bunch is at the heart of that. That creates its’ own risk, and he’s been burnt by blitzing too much at times. BUT … overall his results have been quite CONSISTENT. As an aside, last season the Pats had the 2nd ranked defense. Their average YPP in 2021? Almost exactly the same as the Bucs … 5.09 last year. But THEIR defense was the polar opposite of ours: 2nd against the pass, but 22nd against the run. Hmmm, Pats got knocked out in Game 1 of the playoffs. Gets me kinda wondering if it MIGHT not be a little better to be somewhat more BALANCED in terms of run vs pass defense.
February 27th, 2022 at 12:43 pm
I don’t know DR, those defenses in 2020 playoffs looked pretty much the same in the playoffs. Front 6 or 7 cause havoc for Roger’s, Brees & Mahomes. I don’t think I would bragg about the WFT game. The major difference was David shadowing Kelce all game.
February 27th, 2022 at 1:20 pm
Listnfrmafar … Personally I think that the Bucs’ defense adjusted pretty well in the 2020 playoffs, even in the WFT game. That game was intriguing to me because we should’ve pummeled Washington, and yet they stayed right with us. Both teams had 12 drives; WTF scored on 4 of their 12 (3 TDs & 1 FG); Bucs scored on 7 of our 12 (3 TDs & 4 FGs). Each team scored 1 TD off of a Turnover. Score would’ve been a blowout IF we’d been able to punch it in on those 4 FGs. Credit the Washington defense (but ours played reasonably well too).
But then look at the Saints’ game where our defense forced FOUR turnovers (to 0 giveaways for us). Or the Chiefs’ game where our defense forced TWO turnovers (to 0 giveaways for us). And just as significantly, look at the Packers’ game, where our offense gave it away THREE times (3 INTs in a row in the 2nd half), yet our defense held the Pack to 1 TD & 2 punts. Since we only won by 5 pts, that was the difference in the ballgame.
Yup I think our defense kicked it up a notch in the 2020 playoffs, even in the Washington game.
February 27th, 2022 at 1:45 pm
DR, Bowles doesn’t get credit for turnovers, that’s like saying a int is BL’s fault. FYI in the WTF game Godwin had 4 crucial drops. One or two in the end zone. The pressure from the front 7 caused the turnovers and a very motivated D players that executed could smell the Lombardi. Adrenalin is a powerful tool. Funny how much credit Bowles gets for the 2020 and the praises he gets yet still radio silence after Rams game.
February 27th, 2022 at 2:04 pm
No shade on Bowles, but when a team has run stoppers like Via Vea and Suh, backed up by fast linebackers like David and White, you are going to be near the top of run defenses.
February 27th, 2022 at 2:23 pm
always hated this running defense argument. Bucs pass defense has and is so bad teams dont run…why would they? thanks smb and big head winfield jr for losing the season…
February 27th, 2022 at 2:57 pm
Are you sure we were excellent on run defense? Or do you think the fact that our secondary couldn’t even stop backup QB’s was a factor. Most of the year offenses came into the game almost abandoning the run. Because they could pass all day long. They knew the only way to beat Tampa was in a shootout to outscore Brady. They knew our offense would put up 30 points. The only way for opponents to keep up was to pass pass pass.
February 27th, 2022 at 3:02 pm
^^^^^ Our secondary was backups, third stringers, and practice squad players for most of the yr. Your theory is correct but you are missing some large tangents in the equation.
February 27th, 2022 at 3:03 pm
Listnfrmafar … ‘Funny how much credit Bowles gets for the 2020 and the praises he gets yet still radio silence after Rams game.’
Coaches get credit AND blame for almost every game. That’s the nature of the beast I guess. Personally I’m glad that he stayed “radio silent’ since the Rams’ game. The way the media (and yes, fans) twist everything a coach says, ANYTHING he offered up would’ve sounded like whining. Or worse, throwing his players under the bus. (BTW, that last call wasn’t optimal, but the Bucs’ defense execution on that play was dreadful; responding would’ve been a Lose-Lose proposition for Bowles).
February 27th, 2022 at 3:10 pm
JeffreyLane77 … ‘They knew the only way to beat Tampa was in a shootout to outscore Brady. They knew our offense would put up 30 points. The only way for opponents to keep up was to pass pass pass.’
And yet … the Bucs went 13-4 on the season, with our defense only allowing 20.8 PPG while our defense scored 30.1 PPG. Might be wrong, but that smells a lot like very good COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL on the season.
February 27th, 2022 at 4:54 pm
DR, seriously, first NO game, Jets, Bill’s, Indy, Dallas, Philly, WTF, Rams twice, all games the D shat themselves. I’ll give you NO 2nd game and partial blame WTF offense. Again, your stats are skewed because most opposing teams went into one dimentional mode to play catch up. I’m not sure the Rams second to last play was execution, more like confusion. So many PROS messing up at the same time on the same play? Doubtful. Anyone blaming Winfield for that play doesn’t know the game. Even if he kept Kupp in front of him the Rams
still would of been well in FG range.