Clash Of Third-Down Giants
January 12th, 2022
Take a wild guess which NFL offense leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate.
That was an easy one. It’s the Bucs at 47.09 percent. However, the Eagles are second-best in the conference.
The good folks at PhillyVoice.com spell it out and note a one nugget that really surprised Joe.
45.7% third down percentage
An interesting stat that hasn’t gotten a ton of attention is just how good the Eagles were on third down this season. They had the fourth best conversion rate in the entire NFL, and that’s due in large part to them having just 6.08 yards to go, on average on third down. That’s below the league average of 6.92. It’s worth noting that they chose to run the ball 77 times on third down, and pass it 72.
Damn, imagine the Bucs running more on third down than they pass. Joe can’t even fathom it.
Joe is so grateful that Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield are healthy, and Carlton David seems all the way back. The Bucs will need their tackling prowess on Sunday, especially if Lavonte David is still sidelined and Devin White stays in his funk.
January 12th, 2022 at 3:25 pm
And our 3rd down D is atrocious. Yippeeee
January 12th, 2022 at 3:30 pm
“It’s worth noting that they chose to run the ball 77 times on third down, and pass it 72.”
———
Is that designed runs, or Hurts just running on 3rd down? The Bucs need to finally unleash White and stop having him drop into zone. If the Bucs just point to Hurts, and say ‘attack’, White is going to have a huge day.
In that first game vs the Bucs, to my eye, it sure seemed like the Eagles were worried about having him run, and tried keeping him in the pocket, and he looked terrible there. But late in the game, when down big, the finally just let him run, and the Eagles who had been stopped all night, suddenly move the ball and end up making it a game. I don’t think the Bucs should take anything from that first game, and if they do, it should only be on those final drives.
January 12th, 2022 at 3:43 pm
We see what not having LVD has done to the run defense overall. Yes he is good at pass coverage but his run defense is way better then K Minter also. The lack of speed is one reason for allowing RB’s to get to the edge so easily, is not good. Missing 3 of the 4 starting LB’s has been rough for this team.
GO BUCS!!!
January 12th, 2022 at 3:50 pm
On looking at our earlier game against the Eagles, I’m still wondering why the Bucs didn’t absolutely throttle the Eagles. Bucs were ahead 28-7 with about 20 minutes to go in the game, but then we let them back in the game (ended 28-22). We pummeled them in every stat, yet barely squeaked out a W.
Just looking at our defense in that game, LVD didn’t play. Neither did Davis, SMB or Winfield. Our Secondary was Dean, Cockrell, Delaney, Whitehead & Edwards. Our ILBs were White & Minter. Bottom line: Bucs had a LOT of subs starting in that game.
Interestingly, the tackles were pretty well spread around, and no one player had more than 5 combined tackles. What undoubtedly helped is that the Eagles only had the ball for 20 mins TOP (47 plays) to our 40 mins TOP (73 plays). Both teams opened the game with TDs on their 1st drives, but after that the Bucs’ defense really stiffened. On the next 6 drives, the Eagles were forced to punt 5 times, plus we got 1 INT. Eagles had 3 plays on each one of those 6 drives, and ended up going 3-for-10 on 3rd down conversions.
Our defense holding them to 3-and-outs was certainly a key, but so was our offense putting together some LOOONG scoring drives. Bucs had FIVE drives of over 5 mins each (10-9-11-12-12 plays leading to 4 TDs and a looong drive 6-minute to run out the clock at game’s end. Seems to me like that’s pretty good COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL, with each side of the ball doing their part.
January 12th, 2022 at 3:59 pm
Defense Rules – again, go back and watch the game. The Eagles were trying to keep Hurts in the pocket, they certainly appeared that they didn’t want him running, and he looked terrible. In part they might not have wanted him running because of the Bucs alleged ‘elite’ rush defense, but the Bucs were missing all our corners, with a hobbled Dean coming back from injury, and the Eagles might have wanted to see him throw vs bad corners. Again, Hurts looked terrible when he just tried to stand in the pocket and run.
Late in the game, as you said, 28-7 or whatever, the Eagles finally just let Hurts run around, play his game, and he looked 100x better. I remember questing my friend who is an Eagles fan about why they were trying to make him a pocket passer, when, if he’s moving, he’s so much better. My Eagles friend just said Hurts sucks no matter what he does, and the Eagles are awful, and their year is over, all that nonsense, but I thought if they just moved Hurts around, he’d be quite the weapon.
Hopefully the Eagles are stupid, and they’re scared of that ‘elite’ Bucs rush defense, and tell Hurts to stay in the pocket, that would be ideal.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:17 pm
Need Dean. When Dean goes out things get worse.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:24 pm
Carlton Davis might be back on the field but he looks to be struggling. He was no match for DJ Moore on Sunday. Moore clearly had more speed than Davis could keep up with. Hopefully both him and SMB can step it up and actually defend some passes instead of tackling receivers after the catch is made. Those guys are better than our backups but no where near where they were at the end of last year.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:25 pm
Agree Swampbuc. Dean seems to be making more plays than any of our secondary lately.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:28 pm
If you throw out their last game against Dallas because they rested starters; Eagles have won 6 of last 7 games.. Hurts was running outside the pocket during those games.. We need speed from JTS & JPP to stop Hurts , and Bowles may put a spy on him
we will have our better CB’s back which we didn’t have then .
January 12th, 2022 at 4:40 pm
The Iggles were better at the end of the season than their start.
This is not the case for the Bucs.
Last game does not count.
I expect a slugfest and a close game.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:41 pm
Why don’t Bucs run more? Two reasons, no counters, 2 back sets, in other words basic and predictable. Two, Bucs do not have good RB’s. Lenny is great but a bull rush guy, once he gets to second tier he a monster. Rojo the same, they don’t wait for a hole to open. Bell is slower now but watch him bounce down the line and attack the hole when he finds it. Taylor, Eller, Cook are great at this. Do what you do best score points and don’t drop into prevent when up 17 points until very end if the game. That 3rd down stat is very concerning since that is Bucs D’s kryptonite.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:50 pm
Rod … Been a huge Bama fan for more years than I can count, and I remember Jalen from his Bama days very well. He moves around very very well, but he’s only an average passer (61% this year). But regardless, he never gives up & he finds a way to git-er-done, no matter how far down his team is. I like that.
My point about the 1st game though was that we were missing some big pieces on defense, and yet we still played tough … for about 3 qtrs of the game. Then the roof fell in. Our offense hanging onto the ball for 40 mins TOP was what made the difference IMO, and to do that we ran the ball on 42% of the plays (more than we usually do). Also Brady threw for OVER 80% completion rate in that game … and kept the clock moving even though most were short passes.
January 12th, 2022 at 4:58 pm
Hey Dream — Carlton may not be at his best, but Moore had 7 grabs on 10 targets for 87 yards and zero TDs, meanwhile the safety help was likely steering to help out Dean’s replacement, the Fragrant One, Desir.
Did he shut Moore down? No, but Moore didn’t run wld either, a’la Cheetah Hill last year regular season or Julio Jones anytime back in the day.
He may not be 100% but he is still our best pass defender out there and with a healthy safety stable, we should see the Bucs be better prepared to focus on stopping the run.
January 12th, 2022 at 5:18 pm
Joe, I’m not one to sneer at typos–but who is Carlton David?
January 12th, 2022 at 5:23 pm
The past 2 games showed the extreme talent difference of LVD & Shaq
Nelson has played well, JT and Gil not so much…
January 12th, 2022 at 6:03 pm
same recipe as always. #1 protect Tom. # 2, Put a spy on Hurts and fine the defender $10,000 if he gets past him. Play a very tight pass defense. Try not to curse. Forget that s&$t
January 12th, 2022 at 6:42 pm
When you have a qb like Tom Brady you don’t run on 3rd & 6 you pass pass pass and when your OC is BL yours throw deep on 3rd & 2
January 12th, 2022 at 6:46 pm
Is it Sunday yet? I can’t wait 3 days of playoff football. Get to watch our bucs followed by two more great games. My smoker is going to be cooking all weekend. Monday is going to suck. I nervous drink beers on big games. The van is always empty.
January 12th, 2022 at 7:01 pm
I always cringe when we are trying to stop them on third down.
January 12th, 2022 at 7:40 pm
Defense Rules…EXACTLY! We played a lot of backups that game and still managed to handle Philly until we started to think about the break because it was a Thurs night game. Up 28-7, team prob was looking fwd to 10-day break and let Eagles back in. I highly doubt they’ll do that again. It’s 4 games to win before another boat parade, doubt we get caught slipping.
Don’t like weather forecast of wind and rain, but we have dominant OL and front 7, will take that against Eagles. Go Bucs!
January 12th, 2022 at 8:19 pm
Agreed third downs are the key, the D can’t play the beagles like they did in the second half of the last time we met. They are going to run on us if we can’t set the edge.
January 12th, 2022 at 8:55 pm
I bet on everything they will try and run it with hurts and sanders all game. Just like stopping lamar, and to stop hurts put a qb spy on him and keep him locked in amd stay with him. Thats how lamar is stopped same way with hurts. Also make them throw bc they cant!! Force them to throw creates turnovers. On offense find thier weakness exploit it!! I trust in TB12 will find the weakness. Take away thier strengths exploit thier weakness!! TAMPA BAY ALL THE WAY
January 13th, 2022 at 8:15 am
Anonymous, BL and Bowles are on interviews, you seem to have the game plan, why don’t you step in? Hurts is no Lamar. They’re going to try to run it because Buffalo, Indy, Jets were all successful. The question is if Offense should ores consistently can Philly keep from become for going one dimentional?