How Will The Bucs Lose In The Playoffs — If They Lose?
December 17th, 2021
Bucs DC Todd Bowles
It’s hard for Joe not to think the Bucs will be playing in Los Angeles in February. Why?
Well, first the Bucs have the best record in the NFL eight days from Christmas. Joe never thought he would see the day. And since we are supposed to be in a good mood during the holiday season, Joe is thinking positively and dreaming of another long run in the playoffs.
Maybe another Super Bowl?
But as Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders points out, statistics demonstrate teams that make the postseason often lose at some point (obviously). So he tries to get a read of how each playoff-bound or playoff-hopeful team may/will trip up.
NFL Week 15 – According to analytics, 93% of the NFL teams that reach the postseason end up losing. Therefore, your favorite team will almost inevitably lose sometime in the postseason. And Walkthrough is here to bring a little sunshine into your midweek by telling you why:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Too many first-down running plays; punts and field goals in manageable conversion situations; not to mention some plays where Tom Brady just heaves the ball downfield in search of a penalty, only to have that penalty offset because one of his linemen held.
Well, if the Bucs are going to trip up (provided common sense rules the day at One Buc Palace and furniture-tossing, bicycle-throwing, fake-V-card-flashing Antonio Brown returns), it won’t be because they aren’t scoring points. It will be the defense.
The fact the Bucs lead the NFL in missed tackles is mindblowing. How can a team with the best record in the NFL a week before Christmas lead the NFL in missed tackles. That just doesn’t compute.
The defense will be the Achilles heel if the Bucs get bounced Somehow, someway, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has to come up with a scheme where the defense doesn’t crumble the moment a starting corner walks off the field. Frankly, Joe’s seen enough of that.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:25 am
Defensive backs failing to stop the pass.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:28 am
Aahh yes, I see a ray of optimism this morning. Oh wait, I read it wrong. No sunshine there. Of course, same held true last year when we were 7-5 then ran the table. Hmmm, how’d that work out?
December 17th, 2021 at 5:48 am
Of course, same held true last year….. TB12, Will play a huge role in motivating everyone …. the question is how bad do you really want it. Our defense was playing like there hair was on fire in the playoffs 2020. 1. They believed they could do 2. They wanted it bad enough.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:48 am
Looking at you Jameel Dean. If Alex Cappa can play half a game with a broken arm, howcome a headache sends you to the sidleline? Be glad Bill Parcel aint your coach. Nutup man.
Go Bucs!
December 17th, 2021 at 5:50 am
Failure to draft CB’s in rd #2 & #3 and poor Special Teams although Licht said “this is a SPECIAL TEAMS DRAFT” lol smh.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:54 am
Don’t sleep on the Saints. The Bucs have lost to teams with a running QB and the Saints still have a good defense. Anything is possible in the playoffs. Good and bad.
December 17th, 2021 at 5:55 am
I’m not worried. There’s no way we take our foot off the gas in the playoffs
December 17th, 2021 at 5:55 am
Missed tackling is obviously a big issue, as is staying healthy. As Jim points out above, we need our starters.
I’m going to go off the beaten path and say it will be the offense, despite all the scoring. There HAS to be balance. There HAS to be the threat of a run-game. One-dimensional teams rarely, if ever, do well in the playoffs.
December 17th, 2021 at 6:50 am
From a talent perspective there’s not a single back up CB on our roster that has the potential to be a starter which is why we end up in zone so often when a starter goes down. Bowles is merely trying to force the other team to drive the field, burn clock and ultimately have to settle for a FG. IMO….he’s handcuffed in that regard. It is what it is, we’ve had back to back winning seasons, should win the division, will make the playoffs….as a fan that’s all you hope for. Much like last year, you get in the playoffs and anything can happen.
December 17th, 2021 at 7:12 am
Tanier has a point .IMO when the offense sputters for whatever reason, its puts our defense on the field too much. Its been a patchwork defense through much of the year due to injuries mainly to DB’s and LB’s. Good running teams often have two good running backs that complement each other. I think we need some new wrinkles in the run game. It is very dependent on Fournette. What will the team do if teams figure out howto shut him down or he gets injured;
December 17th, 2021 at 7:21 am
I keep using the same analogy. Double their best receiver and hit the tight end at the line. If we meet the Chiefs again this year. I like to call it the “Bilichick Recipe” When I saw the highlights of the KC and LA last night, I had to wonder if the Charger’s coach has ever seen the Chiefs play. How in &^$# does a tight end get 191 yds????????????????????? Double Tyreek and hit Kelce at the line. Mahome boy reminded me of when i was a kid playing football in the school yard. He just ran around in circles all night knowing that SOMEONE will eventually get open hahahhaha
December 17th, 2021 at 7:24 am
Jimbuc does someone really need to explain to you the difference between a head and arm injuries?
December 17th, 2021 at 7:26 am
this is the best and most accurate article Joe has ever posted. Those constant freakn 1st down runs. You have to do it sometimes but not 90% of the time. It’s like playing poker with 3 cards showing all the time. We are getting better at challenging the receivers. We used to play 10 yds deep and stand there and wait for the receiver. Slingblade could get a 1st down playing like that hahaha
December 17th, 2021 at 7:53 am
We simply don’t match up well against the Saints. Aside from that, they ALWAYS seem to know what plays we’re running on both sides of the ball
December 17th, 2021 at 8:02 am
The defense will be the Achilles heel if the Bucs get bounced –
It will depend on injuries and turnovers.
If Bucs D is relatively healthy and the offense doesn’t turn it over, then Brady will find a way to lead the team to another SB.
December 17th, 2021 at 8:06 am
X-favor is COVID. Over 100 players have now tested positive in the past week across the league. The Browns are down to their 3rd string QB. Vaxed or unvaxxed doesn’t matter. Omicron can go around it. How long before this outbreak hits the Bucs and we have entire positions out?
December 17th, 2021 at 8:14 am
We don’t know what Jamel Dean went through, but I suspect that it was more than just a “headache”. We should be more supportive of players who are suffering from head injuries. Consider this recent report about the late Vincent Jackson, whose family had his brain analyzed after his death: “Jackson never had a diagnosed concussion during his 12-year NFL career, something he said was “fortunate.” But while diagnosed concussions are contributors to CTE, less severe but repeated hits can also cause damage. According to the CTE Center at Boston University, around 20 percent of people who are diagnosed with CTE never had a diagnosed concussion.”
December 17th, 2021 at 8:37 am
No matter how many times you say it Joe, it doesn’t make it so. The Bucs do not have the best record in the NFL. By your logic, you could say either Arizona or Green Bay have the best record in the NFL. You can’t have 3 teams, each with the best record. They are tied for the best record. I love where the Bucs stand, but would rather see both the Cards and Packers drop one and the Bucs win out, so we could rightfully say the Bucs have the best record in the NFL.
December 17th, 2021 at 8:37 am
Simple answer if the Bucs don’t score 30+ they lose. Yes the D played great in the Saint, GB playoffs & SB but Bucs still had to put up 30 in all except SB. Secret to success keep duct tape BA & BL’s mouths shut so Brady can do his thing and D get off the field on 3rd downs. Obviously penalties & turnovers come into play. Every offense sputters EVERY game, what team scores on every drive or every other drive? In the Bill’s game Bucs had one 4 & out in the 3rd qtr and 1 3 & out in the 4th. I couldn’t believe it until I did the math, D gives up 23 points a game, that’s a lot. I’m amazed they are 10-3.
December 17th, 2021 at 8:40 am
Secondary going down with injuries 2 out of the 3 the only way we lose if we’re healthy we will be champs
December 17th, 2021 at 8:54 am
If we lose, it will be turnovers, penalties & special teams…just like any other game
December 17th, 2021 at 9:04 am
Exactly! No one has a better record than the Bucs. That’s just the plain simple truth.
December 17th, 2021 at 9:10 am
Alton:
These annoy Joe too. But you know what? At the end of the day the Bucs are leading the league in scoring despite the running up the middle on first downs.
So Joe cannot quibble too much. 🙂
December 17th, 2021 at 9:29 am
Was not a fan of BL as a player. Not a fan of his as a coordinator either.
December 17th, 2021 at 9:36 am
I cringe everytime I read that Tom has 10 int’s. I can name at least 4 that were not his fault. If you’d like to see why just google “passing sandbags for a hurricane” A person gets it in his hands and passes it to the next guy. Lennie just did that against the Bills. Tom put the ball right in his hands and he tried to pass it on. Thankfully, there wasn’t a defender there to intercept it. I have said for many years “TAKE THOSE DAMN GLOVES OFF AND CATCH THE BALL!!!!!!!” you’re catching a ball that probably doesn’t even weigh a pound and is full of air. You are not a brick mason. How many QBs have you seen with gloves on their throwing hand????
December 17th, 2021 at 9:48 am
I see much more vulnerability on the defensive side of the ball. If we don’t have ALL the starters playing, we tend to be pretty bad on defense. That has been the story all season. Offense has been carrying and bailing out the team. The person who wrote the blurb did not watch much film.
December 17th, 2021 at 10:01 am
Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders makes several good points, and I do not believe that it is happenstance that his first observation is “Too many first-down running plays.” (especially up the middle).
I realize that I am beating a dead horse, but it is my contention that way too often (80+ percent?) we are throwing that 1st down away with a run first strategy. It mystifies me as to what the logic is, especially when the opposing defense knows that’s what we are going to do.
It would be different if PFF or someone could point to statistics that prove the effectiveness of this strategy, but I have consistently maintained that the yards gained on average would be less that 3 yards per carry. So, again we are looking at 2nd and long. Last I checked, we still have 3 downs to make a first down or punt to our opponent. So how in God’s green earth can we afford to p*ss away over 33% of our opportunities to keep a drive alive. PLEASE….someone prove me wrong!
In a game where the smallest percent improvement or decline can mean the difference between winning or losing, and we can afford to throw away a first down because someone calling the plays has OCD?
December 17th, 2021 at 10:08 am
At the current rate, the superbowl champion may be the team least impacted by covid.
December 17th, 2021 at 11:23 am
Someone like Todd Bowles needs to tell the defensive backs their job is to block passes. They may not know that. Standing safely in their assigned zone watching receivers make completions from 7 yards away will not cut it. Last night the Chief’s defensive backs were like shadows.
December 17th, 2021 at 12:05 pm
Medicated Pete, a few questions for you:
1) Do you know more about the Draft than Licht and his scouts?
2) What CB’s did you want?
3) Are you sure that Trask and Hainsey are not assets for the future?
If you can’t answer (by name) the CB’s you wanted in the 2nd and 3rd, like a lot of other JBF posters can’t, then you’re admitting you don’t know what you’re talking about.
December 17th, 2021 at 3:58 pm
On a positive note, I read there will be no more punishment for Brown and Edwards.
Excellent.
Not that there was any doubt in my mind, although the casual Karen’s scream “Off with their heads!”
December 17th, 2021 at 5:10 pm
According to analytics….. or you know, simple division 13/14=.93 LOL
December 17th, 2021 at 5:47 pm
Nicely done Leighroy. Analytics = math
December 17th, 2021 at 7:19 pm
I think Arizona will get a 4th loss in one of their last 3 games. Packers have an easier remaining schedule. They face a backup QB at Baltimore and their only tough game left is at home against the Vikings.Last season the Bucs beat the Pack easy at home and at the frozen tundra in the NFC championship game. Maybe the Pack felt a Florida team would cave in at Green Bay in January. Aaron Rogers caved in both games from the Bucs defensive pass rush. Bucs match up good with the Pack, don’t want to play the Rams.
December 19th, 2021 at 12:40 am
Again with the run on first down nonsense. Tampa runs on first down 26% of the time. Only 6 teams do so less often
December 19th, 2021 at 12:48 am
22.8 points given up per game is not a lot. In fact it’s dead middle. And 1ppg away from top 10