The Power Of Points
November 29th, 2021
The 30-busters have a formula.
Blah, blah, blah, complementary football. Coaches talk about it all the time.
It’s important, but sometimes balance is a little overblown.
In the NFL, scoring points is king. Why? Because there are enough teams that simply don’t have the firepower to win a shootout.
Would it surprise you to learn the Bucs, since Tom Brady arrived, are a perfect 18-0 when they score 30 points or more in a game?
That’s fact.
They’re also 23-2 under Bucco Bruce Arians when scoring 30 or more. The first loss under that umbrella was the 2019 Giants game, when Arians oddly and intentionally iced and backed up his own field goal kicker after pulling the plug on a hot quarterback. The other loss was in overtime to Seattle when the very young Bucs secondary got roasted.
The Bucs lead the NFL in scoring this season at 31.5 points per game. Remove the 12 points by safety Mike Edwards and the Bucs offense is still averaging over 30 per game. No other NFL offense can say it scores 30 per game.
For those wondering, Indianapolis has the fourth-most potent offense in the NFL and it wasn’t good enough yesterday.
GM Jason Licht and Arians have figured out the NFL, Joe believes. Invest heavily in your offense and score, score, score. And make sure you load up on pass rushers so you can do just enough to beat elite quarterbacks.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:11 pm
That pic from the introductory press conference…Lil’ Brother Licht and Big Brother Bruce…here to save careers and a franchise by pulling the plug on Winston and snagging Tom Brady. It’s a thing of beauty…
November 29th, 2021 at 1:13 pm
We won the turnover battle. That was the difference.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:19 pm
Points would have been nice when the defense forced 3 3 and outs to start the game. Dropped passes, running routes incorrectly and lack of of concentration and discipline plaques this offense on the road. Playing from ahead makes winning more likely.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:19 pm
Sounds like a great plan to me. Understand that the suits will always be behind your strategy as well so rule changes will help your tactics far more than rules are made to hurt the offense.
The NFL luvs em some points. The Bucs are Roger Goodell’s fantasy team!
November 29th, 2021 at 1:26 pm
We can thank John Lynch or Shanihan for Tom Brady!
Brady did not want to come here, at first.
San Francisco was his first choice.
Only when they decided to pass on him, and stick with Jimmy G did Brady even consider coming to Tampa.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:26 pm
Yeah, I mean when you have the talent that we do, you can overcome other shortcomings like sputtering in the first 2 quarters of games.
Good teams find ways to win.
I EXPECT 30+ points per game with this roster. If that’s wrong, I’m sorry.
John- We definitely owe the defense for keeping things in check.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:59 pm
Defense right now doesn’t look championship material. My concern is on the road again in Green Bay with this defense.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:59 pm
Did anyone else have flashbacks to that specific Giants game in 2019 before Lenny broke off his TD run? Asking for a friend who still doesn’t trust BA to go for the jugular in that situation.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:01 pm
That’s an amazing stat Joe, that ‘the Bucs, since Tom Brady arrived, are a perfect 18-0 when they score 30 points or more in a game’. I mean he’s only been here for 31 games total, and we’ve scored 30 or more points in almost 60% of our games, including the playoffs.
As Paul Harvey used to say though ‘and now for the rest of the story’. During those 18 wins, the Bucs had 18 giveaways; a perfect 1 turnover per game average. During those same 18 wins, the Bucs’ defense (and S/Ts to be fair) took the ball away 42 times. That’s a Turnover Differential of PLUS 24 in just those 18 games. Included in those 42 takeaways are 3 Pick-6 which is a nice touch I think (puts an exclamation point on the turnover). I seriously doubt that there’s another team in the NFL that sports a similar Turnover Differential under similar criteria.
And interestingly, Bucs have averaged 37.4 PPG in those 18 wins. My gut tells me that’s the result of some pretty good COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL … Defense taking it away; Offense making them pay for losing the ball. Not sure that had anything to do with ‘balance’ though. More about taking your opponents lunch money then charging him interest to get it back. But I hear ya Joe … Complementary football; ‘blah, blah, blah’.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:12 pm
we need to draft corners #1 #2 and #3
November 29th, 2021 at 2:13 pm
drafting kyle trask was a huge waste, multiple decent corners were still on the board
November 29th, 2021 at 2:17 pm
DR- That’s exactly correct. That’s complementary football. Even though the secondary couldn’t stop the pass yesterday, 5 or 6 turnovers is complementary football. The offense doesn’t score 38 points without that.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:26 pm
A lot more to it than that fellas. How many turnovers came from teams playing from behind and having to put the ball in harms way while playing catch up. It works both ways.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:35 pm
Points is right…..the last time I checked the rules……the team with the most points wins…..I’ll check again.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:54 pm
Kentucky Buc … I don’t disagree with you, but THAT’S just another example of Complementary Football IMO. All that term really means to me is that what the offense does helps the defense and vice-versa. One capitalizes on the good things that the other does. If the offense puts up a bunch of early points & your opponent has to air it out to try to get back in quickly, and then the defense makes an interception, the two are just playing off each other (i.e., complementing each other?). Some teams (like the Bucs) seem to do that very well; most teams don’t IMO.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:06 pm
That’s Licht and Arians telling everyone Bowels sucks. What I read is if Bucs don’t score 30 their odds of losing is pretty good. What do your stats say about that DR? In those 31.games, how many points did the D let up? Let’s talk present, yesterday offense needed at least 32.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:25 pm
Do you even know what complementary football is? Much easier to score a TD when special teams recovers a punt inside the 20.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:51 pm
DR, Joe was trolling you hard with that first paragraph!
November 29th, 2021 at 4:09 pm
Agree with DR. Our form of complimentary football is having the D take the ball away from our opponent and giving it to Brady and the offense so they can score more points.
November 29th, 2021 at 4:28 pm
Listnfrmafar … ‘That’s Licht and Arians telling everyone Bowels sucks.’ Of course, and that’s why the Bucs made Todd Bowles the highest paid DC in the NFL this past year. Makes perfect sense.
If you want to talk about yesterday’s 31 points, fine. Look who the Bucs’ defense had on the field against a pretty good Colts’ offense for most of the game. Dean only lasted 5 plays, then Desir took his outside CB spot. White lasted just about half the game, so Minter subbed in. Cockrell played half the game, and Vea played less than that. JPP also only played half the game, and got a total of 1 tackle; that’s it (pretty sure he’s hurting). SMB’s playing outside, and he’s a Nickel CB. Considering that our offense turned it over TWICE, and our punter shanked it for a 14-yd punt in our territory, I’d say that our beaten-up defense did about as well we should expect.
November 29th, 2021 at 5:03 pm
DR, Nice rebuttal to List. Seems like he goes out of his way to stoop down and pick up nickels (complain) while dollar bills (wins) are flying over his head.
November 29th, 2021 at 5:25 pm
Wentz burnt SMB & Winfield, two starters. 3 points off the shank punt, zero points off Godwin fumble and Indy went 90 yards in 5:43 seconds, off Brady pick that was a horrible call by BL at that time and Miller ran wrong route. So 10 out of 31 points, 3 of them due to bad field position. I’ll give you the 3 point buffer. I dod not know Bowles was the highest paid DC, all that proves is BA isn’t the brightest bulb in the box. BA with Bowles Bucs record 7-9 pre Brady. 19-5 since he arrived. One might ask, is the teams success really due to BA & Bowles?
November 29th, 2021 at 5:40 pm
Oh and DR, just so you know the TD off the pick was a 20 yd strike to Doyle the TE covered by Nelson or should I say uncovered. Do ya think that’s kind of a mismatch?
November 29th, 2021 at 6:00 pm
Listnfrmafar … Wentz’s TD just proves that SMB isn’t an outside corner. I’ve already said that Brady’s INT was as good as a punt (Indy got it at their 10-yd line). And the reason why Colts didn’t score on Godwin’s fumble was, oh ya that’s right, because the defense held.
You know as well as I do that Tom Brady has been surrounded with an All-Star lineup. But don’t compare pre-Brady days. The keys have been not only adding TB12, but also adding Gronk, AB, Lenny, Wirfs (I’ll stop with those 5 new additions from last year).
And on your Nelson point, it drives me nuts to see these big OLB/DEs way back in coverage. IMO it’s an admission that they can’t do their primary job (PASS RUSH) so they send someone else to blitz (White usually) & let the big guys drop back. The results speak for themselves … JTS (3 targets, 3 completions); Shaq (9 targets, 7 completions); JPP (11 targets, 11 completions); Nelson (2 targets, 1 completion). That’s 25 targets, 22 completions (88%) for those 4 OLBs/DEs. Yup, I’m impressed.
November 29th, 2021 at 6:58 pm
DR, you just proved what I’ve been saying all along, doesn’t Bowles make those coverage calls? It took until mid 3rd quarter for Bowles to take Desirs off Hilton. Things like that are irritating to watch. Oh, nice try lol, if the opposing team scores on a turnover it’s the offenses fault but when the D holds them it’s a win for the D. Can’t have it both ways. I watch the Pat’s and I’m amazed how adjustments are made mid game and how creative the offensive play calling is. I am not expecting BA to be Belichick or BL, McDaniels but when receivers like Evan’s and Godwin are not involved in the offense, it’s not Brady, it’s not the receivers it’s the opposing DC’s scheme shutting them down. Why can’t Bucs adjust to that? Every broadcaster every week recites the same broken record. Defense playing two deep and when the ball is snapped line backers and corners drop back into coverage, 15, 20 yd routes don’t work until DB’s cheat up.
November 29th, 2021 at 8:14 pm
I knew this story would get D.R.’s attention! LMAO
You know I agree with virtually all that you post D.R. And it’s obviously a well worn out cliche that defense wins championships.
I don’t think you’re that far gone since you preach complementary football which even includes special teams, the entire squad must contribute not just the O or the D.
I think there’s a relativavity issue with your viewpoint. I thought I remembered low scoring games from my youth but when you look at the scoring charts if you’re like me you’re surprised to find that our scoring in 2019 per game on average matched 1950. The graph starts at an average 23 points in 1950 and ends with 23 points or so in 2019 with a valley in between.
Your heyday lol was 1976 when defense truly did rule. Just 17 points per game a TD less per game than 1950 and of course well below the 30 point benchmark.
So I guess from my perspective I think we’re headed away from 1976 at warp speed and purists like you are getting betrayed by the NFL. It’s no longer just win baby but just SCORE baby.
November 29th, 2021 at 8:15 pm
BTW when this hits the moderators you may wish to let this chart go through it’s the perfect compliment to your story, and I believe it’s legal. But you know best.
https://www.footballperspective.com/scoring-distribution-from-1950-to-2019/
November 29th, 2021 at 8:31 pm
Tackleblockwin Says:
November 29th, 2021 at 1:13 pm
We won the turnover battle. That was the difference.
Not if you do not score points, the turnovers mean nothing if you do not score enough points to win.
GO BUCS!!!!
November 29th, 2021 at 9:18 pm
It makes sense. But really only works if your playing with the lead. Score enough points to force your opponent to pass. Then attack them aggressively with the front seven. Causing turn overs and sacks. Then when your offense gets the ball back run the football to eat up the clock.
Works great if your playing with the lead. When your not in the lead and still being aggressive with the front seven it leaves your secondary on an island and you give up over the middle passes all day.