Only shot to win.

Joe enjoys the analysis from noted handicapper and stathead Warren Sharp. And after monitoring Sharp’s breakdowns over the past year or so, a clear theme has emerged.

Sharp absolutely hates running on first down. Doesn’t matter what team it is, he thinks running on first down is losing football.

So naturally, Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and his fetish for running up the middle on first downs drives Sharp out of his mind.

If the Bears continue to try to run on first down today, Sharp said, the Bucs will suffocate rookie quarterback Justin Fields and the Bears offense.

But this isn’t about Leftwich or the Bucs. This is about the Bears. Sharp thinks the Bucs ought to have this game in the bag. And he said there is only one way for the Bears to have a chance at an upset.

It’s in two parts: First, stop the run on first down. Second, Sharp noted that when the Bears have Fields throwing out of 11 personnel, which they do often, he struggles.

Additionally, Sharp pointed out the Bucs eat offenses alive when they throw out of 11 personnel.

So what would Sharp do and what should the Bucs look out for from the Bears? You can see in the NBC video below.

.@SharpFootball details how a diversified offensive scheme can lead Justin Fields and the Bears to success against the Buccaneers in Week 7. 👇 pic.twitter.com/tGAYnKt9Dq

— NBC Sports EDGE Football (@NBCSEdgeFB) October 20, 2021