Numbers Behind NFL’s Top-Scoring Offense
September 26th, 2021
Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians.
Joe is a big fan of Warren Sharp, a football handicapper turned stat geek. He breaks down statistical data specifically to try to gain an edge in gambling.
In the process, Sharp unearths really cool information.
Last year Sharp beat the drum constantly that the Bucs run way too much on first down and it was so predictable that the Bucs were basically playing under CFL rules (where they have only three downs).
Sharp backed up his stance with data that shows when the Bucs did pass on first down, the offense was downright explosive. So it drove Sharp bananas to see the Bucs continue to plunge up the middle so often on first downs.
(Joe fully gets what Sharp is saying here. But you know, at the end of the day, the Bucs won the Super Bowl. So how is Joe going to nitpick and not look like a complete fool?)
With their insane passing weapons, Sharp was puzzled why the Bucs didn’t lean much more on them on first downs.
You know? You got ’em so use ’em.
However, Sharp is noticing a 2021 trend that the Bucs are getting away from running up the middle on first downs, so he explained on his podcast “The Ringer Gambling Show.”
“This year though, I have been really pleasantly surprised to see a big change,” Sharp said. “On first downs, in the first three quarters of the game, last year, they were 50 percent run which was the league average. And those runs recorded only 44 percent success and 4.3 yards a carry.
(A play is considered a “success” in NFL stats when it gains at least 40 percent of yards-to-go on first down, 60 percent of yards-to-go on second down and 100 percent of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.)
“This year, 50 percent run has dropped all the way down to 37 percent run. They are passing a lot more. The runs, when they are calling them, are gaining 63 percent success.
“That 37 percent run rate — which was 50 percent last year– is the third-lowest in the NFL. And it is a reason why we have seen a massive flip in the first three quarters of games.”
Sharp added that last year, due to small run gains on first down, the Bucs averaged eight yards-to-go on second down (through the first three quarters). That was the second-longest in the NFL.
This season through two games? The Bucs average 6.7 yards-to-go on second downs (through the first three quarters), the second-shortest in the NFL.
So in Sharp’s mind, this is a big reason why the Bucs offense has exploded this season. Just by being more diverse on first downs, it seems as if the Bucs’ offense has been jump-started.
Sharp added only two other teams are running less on first downs than the Bucs (through three quarters).
Joe hollered all offseason that for every pass Brady didn’t throw, that’s a play that the Bucs’ superior pass-catching talent is wasted.
September 26th, 2021 at 2:25 am
Is it intentional and will it continue? Or is it the result of both of our main backs coughing up the ball at times and struggling? Guess time will tell
September 26th, 2021 at 2:35 am
Or the offense has to keep up with the opponent because the defense is getting slashed?
September 26th, 2021 at 6:29 am
Not sure that “Or the offense has to keep up with the opponent because the defense is getting slashed?” is a valid argument through our first 2 games.
Bucs’ offense scored 3 TDs against Dallas (21 pts) & 3 TDs (21 pts) against Atlanta to handily lead 21-16 & 21-10 at the end of the 1st half in each game.
In the 1st half of Dallas game, Bucs had 8 total drives with 17 first down opportunities; we ran on 8 of 17 of those 1st downs. But after RoJo’s fumble, Bucs didn’t run again on 1st down (passed on the last 4 first down opportunities). And in the 2nd half of that game, had 5 total drives with 16 first down opportunities. Ran on only 4 of those (3 of them by Fournette in 1 drive in which we ended up punting). So we ran on 12 of 33 first down opportunities in that game (36.4%) … but we albeit shut down the run after RoJo’s fumble in the 2nd qtr (we were running on 61.5% of the first down opportunities to that point, and running reasonably effectively. Lesson? Don’t fumble if you expect to run the ball in BA’s offense?
Atlanta game was similar. Bucs had 6 drives in the 1st half with 18 first down opportunities. Bucs ran on 8 of those & passed on 10 (44.4% runs). Had another 6 drives in the 2nd half with 10 first down opportunities. Bucs ran on 2 of those & passed on 8 (20% runs), but 1 was a kneeldown & the other run was after our 1st INT in 4th qtr. So we passed on the first 8 first down opportunities in the 2nd half & got 2 TDs out of it. So we ran on 8 of 28 first down opportunities in that game (28.6%) … but we albeit shut down the run in the 2nd half.
Lesson? Doesn’t appear to make much of a difference whether we run or don’t run on 1st down; this offense can score. Where it does seem to make a difference is in the time of possession (and thus the amount of time the defense stays on the field each game).
September 26th, 2021 at 6:44 am
The Pass has always setup the run
………any good run game will wear down the other team….plus make explosive playaction passes.
But I’m wondering why aren’t they using Scotty Miller like they were doing last year????
September 26th, 2021 at 7:15 am
The numbers are skewed a little bit. The Dallas game it was 6 straight drives to start the game with a run.
Glad to see Brady come out firing in the dirty bird game.
They need to put defenses on their heels with Brady coming out firing more.
And then get begin to run some more. The Bucs need to keep taking advantage of the master throwing the ball, and ripping the opponents a new one lol, just go after them like they started the Atl game.
GO BUCS!!!!!
September 26th, 2021 at 8:46 am
“…Or is it the result of both of our main backs coughing up the ball at times and struggling? Guess time will tell…”
Joe says:
“Or the offense has to keep up with the opponent because the defense is getting slashed?”
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
.
Come on guys, clearly its because Brady has usurped BL’s play calling responsibilities. We all know how BL LOVES running up the gut for 1.5 yards on 1st down. TB sees defenses can’t stop his pass catchers, ME, AB, CG and Gronk. But his running backs? Ordinary, right?
September 26th, 2021 at 9:07 am
As long as the OL is strong in pass protection, the Bucs have the luxury of throwing whenever they want to. I do worry about that against the Rams today, since they have beasts on the DL.
September 26th, 2021 at 2:48 pm
It’s also why our D is on the field way too much and why we are losing time of position and aren’t having success on play action.