Taking The Over
August 23rd, 2021
As of midnight this morning, the good people of BetMGM still had the Bucs’ season-win total over/under at 11.5.
Joe’s good friends over at Football Outsiders, dudes who are known to deal personally with their short-term investment brokers, have concluded the Bucs’ season-win total is 12.
In particular, Andrew Potter is stomping his feet that gamblers should put cash on Tampa Bay’s over. So that means the guys at Football Outsiders think the Bucs will win 13.
I bet against Brady last year, to my regret. We saw all the growing pains early as he and Arians adjusted to each other. The offense in the second half of the season and into the playoffs was much more of a Brady offense, and surprise, surprise! The Buccaneers went on one of the greatest postseason runs in history. Every starter coming back is a big deal. A better pass-catching back is a big deal. The Patriots may not be the Monsters at the End of the Book anymore, as you like to say, but Brady definitely is. I don’t see where you pick out five losses from that schedule, unless injury luck completely flips and Todd Bowles’ defense implodes. The champions have the most complete roster and the most impotent schedule. I wouldn’t bet against them. Over.
This seems to be the consensus at Football Outsiders; the only thing that can slow the Bucs is injuries or a horsecollar from Father Time on park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, helmet-tossing, football-punting, Bucs-Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady.
Fun fact: The Bucs have never won 13 games in a season. The high-water mark for season wins by the franchise is 12. That came in the Bucs’ first Super Bowl season, 2002.
August 23rd, 2021 at 9:55 am
They’ve never won 13 games in a season, much less 17. I’m going with the over. Much over!
August 23rd, 2021 at 9:58 am
“Bucs’ first Super Bowl season, 2002”
I just love to see “first” when talking about Bucs’ Super Bowls!!!
Go Bucs!!!
August 23rd, 2021 at 10:06 am
I stopped using bookies ages ago, the thrill is intoxicating to the point where you start making less educated decisions all because you cannot stand to see your pot of winnings just sitting idly by.
But I’d take the over for the Bucs this season. Forget a perfect season, a few “good” loses is what you should hope for as each loss is a learning experience and it keeps the team from getting complacent. My best guess is that they’ll end up with 12, maybe 13 wins.
August 23rd, 2021 at 11:08 am
13.
August 23rd, 2021 at 12:55 pm
Yeah 12 games seems about right. BA coached teams always stumble into the season until about mid-season. Hopefully they can get lucky again and heat up at just the right time again like last season.
August 23rd, 2021 at 2:21 pm
” The Buccaneers went on one of the greatest postseason runs in history”
LOVE seeing that sentence in print!
Especially because its true.
August 23rd, 2021 at 4:13 pm
The Saints aren’t going away… they’re still going to give Arians fits.
The stupid Falcons should be a bit better than last year, but shouldn’t be good.
The Panthers, I’m not sure. Bridgewater is not a good QB, so if Darnold is at least slightly below average, that will be a big upgrade, and they tend to give Tampa a hard time.
Also I don’t think this will be a team with a top defense during the regular season, not that they’re bad but will be around 10-14th or so — and the horrid special teams play will probably catch up with us.
I think 11-6 is where the Bucs end up.
Personally, I don’t care, so long as they are healthy and ready to go at full speed for the playoffs.
August 23rd, 2021 at 5:36 pm
I don’t get it, the only potential losses on this schedule is maybe Dallas if Dak plays, Patriots only because it’s in NE, I’ll give you one of the Saints and Rams. I don’t see at other potential losses. The worst scenario 13-4. Matt Ryan cannot beat Brady and Darnold can’t either. Dalton definitely won’t especially after last year’s Bears embarrassment.
August 24th, 2021 at 12:56 am
Take the OVER,
This team is going to average over 30 a game again. Whatever you think of this defense, they do not have to be all world to win more than 12 games, especially when you give the Defense a 30 point cushion.
The Defense will be decent, teams will not be able to run on them, and with the front 7 doing their part, bringing the heat, they can bring along the Secondary.
I just can’t see the Bucs losing more games this year than last year. They lost 5 games and Brady did not even know the play book, so losing 6 seems like a stretch.
Now let the games begin, onward and upward to Back to Back World Championships for the Big Bad Azz Bucs
August 24th, 2021 at 8:20 am
They lost 5 games last year and all but 1 was 3 point losses or less.
August 24th, 2021 at 3:02 pm
16-1… The one loss will come early vs Rams in LA but they will return the favor by destroying the Rams at Home in the NFC Championship game