Old School GM, Numbers And Tom Brady
June 17th, 2021
Senses flaw in Tom Brady
Joe couldn’t pry his ear off his computer speaker last night because Hall of Fame general manager Bill Polian was explaining how he breaks down quarterbacks.
And Joe was listening.
Polian co-hosts “Late Hits,” heard exclusively on SiriusXM NFL Radio, at least once a week. During the regular season, Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians is a regular guest.
Last night Polian spoke about what he thinks may be a flaw in the game of park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, Bucs-Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady.
Polian is not a new age football guy. He is no fan of the types of people who spew statistical graffiti every time they open their mouths. Stats are not an answer he said, but added stats can highlight a flaw in an otherwise solid quarterback and stats can possibly point to areas that may need work.
Polian is a big believer in QBR and said he has used it for many years. Interestingly, it wasn’t that long ago BSPN started pushing that stat as their answer to quarterback ratings — which may be the biggest bulls(p)it stat in all of football.
An “elite” quarterback must have a touchdown-to-interception ratio of no less than 3/1, per Polian. Brady had a hair under 4/1 last season. Polian also remarked an “elite” quarterback should complete no less than 65 percent of his passes, but a sign of a rotten passing game is a quarterback averaging 250 or less yards per game.
Brady’s stats from last year were 102.2 QBR, 401 completions in 610 attempts for a 65.7 completion percentage with 40 touchdowns and 12 picks.
Polian, as he rattled off those stats, seemed slightly bewildered. He thought Brady’s QBR and completion percentage were lower than he expected.
This is where Polian said stats come in handy. Polian said if he were Brady’s general manager, he’d have someone bring him cut-up tape of each incompletion to find out the root of each. Was Brady off-target? Was he just not on the same page as his receivers? Did he have a lot of drops? Did he throw a lot of balls away to avoid pressure?
Stats can highlight a wart. If that problem can be corrected, Polian said, “It might win you a game or two.” Stats alone are not an answer, Polian said, but a clue.
Polian’s co-host Alex Marvez noted Brady’s QBR was his highest since 2017. Polian was perplexed and intrigued about Brady’s incompletions. He said if he had the film cut-ups he would spend the rest of the night looking at Brady’s incompletions to find out what may have been the issue.
(Equally puzzling to Polian was Pat Mahomes’ completion percentage, which he felt was low at 66 percent, believing Mahomes’ percentage should be hovering around 70 percent. “That would be an interesting study.”)
He listed Brady in his “elite” quarterback group along with Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson and Mahomes. In fact, Polian referred to Brady as “redoubtable.”
Marvez remarked that with the Bucs bringing everyone back and Brady now knowing Arians’ playbook and style, that his numbers ought to be level or improve in 2021. Polian didn’t disagree but said Father Time and injuries are unpredictable.
Polian also correctly noted that Brady is “closed-mouthed” about injuries, as was evidenced by his knee last year being messed up since April or May of 2020.
June 17th, 2021 at 8:15 am
“redoubtable” – learn something new every day
June 17th, 2021 at 8:16 am
This was a new offense, new players, and no training camp
June 17th, 2021 at 8:22 am
Got to think Brady stats will be even better this season. He knows the system, the players and the plays way better. And the running backs and receivers have been upgraded vs last season. All that should lead to a better start to the first half of this season. Matching the 8 straight wins in the second half is unlikely but a place in the playoffs should be a lock as long as key players remain healthy.
June 17th, 2021 at 8:37 am
Brady throws more balls away than any QB in the league. Some of them are just not obvious throwaways. Completion percentage and accuracy are two completely different things.
June 17th, 2021 at 8:47 am
Polian is one of the biggest, self-promoting frauds in NFL history.
June 17th, 2021 at 8:47 am
Take away the drops(24) and throwaways and he’s well into the 70 plus percentile.
June 17th, 2021 at 8:51 am
Wait wait wait hold on so touchdown to interception ratio matters? Qbr and completions matter? Because we are constantly told defense and run gm is how you evaluate a QB. Polian knows nothing he’s just another guy who doesn’t know football! Did I nail it oneilbucs?🤡
June 17th, 2021 at 8:51 am
Curios if Polian mentioned that this was Brady’s first year, learning a new system. It seemed to me that Brady did much better in the second half of the year.
June 17th, 2021 at 9:16 am
It was discussed later in the conversation.
June 17th, 2021 at 10:54 am
Thanks Joe.
June 17th, 2021 at 12:02 pm
Bradys career completion percentage is under 65%
June 17th, 2021 at 12:25 pm
A lot of flaws in Polian’s analysis. Some QBs complete a bunch of dink and dunk passes. Brees completes 70% plus passes but has lower yards per completion than a Rogers or Brady last year. Brady uses incompletions in lieu of sacks taken and that is much more important factor!
June 17th, 2021 at 1:14 pm
Does he win more football games than he loses? QBR I can get behind, but worrying about a couple percentage points one way or another doesn’t concern me.
It was a season in a pandemic with no offseason on a new team with a new offense…..and they won the Super Bowl. I’ll take it.
June 17th, 2021 at 1:54 pm
Polian is an old GM in an old game. The only stat I’m looking at is GOAT came in to a new system, won his seventh super bowl, at home in an all around historical year.
June 17th, 2021 at 1:55 pm
And from the small amount of info from the small amount of practice, Brady is looking sharp.
June 17th, 2021 at 2:22 pm
Polian is so washed up and disconnected from the game it’s hard to take anything he says seriously.
June 17th, 2021 at 4:43 pm
Bill Polian has 14% of the rings the GOAT has.
June 17th, 2021 at 10:09 pm
Youngbucs all you have to do is look at Brady last year with the Patriots when the runningbacks got hurt and they couldn’t run the ball. Lol 😆🤣😂 it was the defense that got them to the playoffs remember every one said he didn’t have weapons. Then he came to Tampa and the first thing your mentors told you was Brady got to have a running game. Your mentors the national media told you the same thing I said from jump if they don’t give him a running game and change that no risk it no biscuit offense they are going to get him killed. And that is why after the chiefs game the bucs won. And they did say the running game help the bucs win games.
June 17th, 2021 at 11:51 pm
I don’t think everything is working upstairs .
June 17th, 2021 at 11:54 pm
Dude they’re talking about evaluating QBs. I know you like to make excuses for losing! Then you like to make excuses for winning! But this is about QB evaluation stay focused for 1 min. I know it’s hard for you 🤡
June 18th, 2021 at 1:25 am
When John elway was the QB for the broncos he went nowhere till he got a running game,one compliments the other,, little off point but
June 19th, 2021 at 11:56 pm
Polian doesn’t like Brady from his Colts GM days. Stats don’t matter. What matters is that Brady is a winner, has 7 rings already and 1, maybe 2 more coming because this Bucs’ roster is absolutely loaded both on offense and defense.