Numbers Say Bucs Have Top Offense
May 21st, 2021
Projections on Bucs offense.
The Bucs have had one of the NFL’s best offenses for the past few years. Still, Joe finds it chilling that less than 10 years ago, sober minds believed Mike Glennon and Josh McCown were the answers to a Super Bowl puzzle.
What a short, strange trip it’s been.
The Bucs, if you haven’t heard, are absolutely loaded on offense. It’s like a freakin’ fantasy football team. When guys like Antonio Brown and O.J. Howard are not considered starters, you know you have a pretty sick roster.
With all that info in mind, Joe’s not taking a long walk on a short pier in guessing the Bucs will have the best offense in the league this fall.
Unfortunately, Joe is not collecting six-figures a year from the NFL for this insight. Instead, Cynthia Frelund is.
The numbers chick for NFL Network — she doesn’t look like a stat geek — rarely if ever cites play on the field in her analysis. Instead, it is always her “projections” and her “models.”
Well, in Joe’s eyes, her computers could be corrupted with malware and she wouldn’t need electricity to figure out the Bucs have a damn good offense. Still, her gadgets tell her the Bucs have the No. 1 offense in the NFL.
Tampa Bay’s offense and defense both account for at least 5.9 projected wins (their win total is 12.2). In the past five seasons, balanced teams — where the final actual win-total attribution at the end of the season was no more than 0.4 wins different between offense and defense (and a team won at least eight games) — all made it past Wild Card Weekend. Interestingly, none of them ranked No. 1 on either side of the ball in win share. The Bucs, who return all 22 starters from last year’s championship squad, have the best win-share projection on offense and third-best mark on defense.
Who is Joe to argue?
You know, we haven’t even hit Memorial Day yet and Joe is so flippin’ stoked for the season. Now that the playbook is fully known by park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, Bucs-Super-Bowl-winning Tom Brady, and right tackle Tristan Wirfs has a year in the NFL under his belt, and furniture-tossing, bicycle-throwing receiver Antonio Brown should be available for a full year, this offense could be magical.
Unfortunately, Joe has to remind folks that Frelund’s projections and models last summer told her that the Bucs had the No. 32-ranked cornerbacks in the NFL. Anyone who watches games would have known better.
Trust Joe, to this very day, the GraveDiggers are still PO’d about that.
May 21st, 2021 at 2:02 am
Lol. Numbers? We’re stacked at pretty much at each position on offense. We had 35.5 regular season ppg. I really can’t imagine. That’s terrifying.
MOVEFASTERTIME!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 2:44 am
You said yourself and many of us agreed: the Magic Number is probably 14.
May 21st, 2021 at 4:16 am
we’re a 13-4 to 14-3 team…
we aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year…they know who we are…
we will drop a few…
-one to a sh!t team
-one two a really good team
-one to a divisional opponent…
and we might drop a 4th one just because…well…because one game we are just gonna look like the bucs of old…these things can happen…
other than that, she’d doing a great job reading off the cue cards…
and it’s nice to see the cue cards told her the gravediggers have actually arrived as primetime playas
May 21st, 2021 at 4:27 am
that’s me ^^^^^^^^
May 21st, 2021 at 4:53 am
This is where the talking head that drool about the KC Mahomeboys are missing it.
The Bucs can match anybody in the NFL in scoring points.
BUT the Bucs have an ascending monster of a defense and KC does NOT!!!!
Shannon Sharpe, in spite of all the mess he talked about the Bucs and Brady last year, said before the SB that the Bucs had a deeper roster than the Chiefs.
The NFL KRAKEN HAS BEEN RELEASED BABY!!!!
And it is Named the BIG BAD WORLD CHAMPION BUCS!!!!!!
20-0 BABY!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 5:21 am
@Frelund … ” In the past five seasons, balanced teams — where the final actual win-total attribution at the end of the season was no more than 0.4 wins different between offense and defense (and a team won at least eight games) — all made it past Wild Card Weekend.”
Aahh yes, there’s that magical word ‘BALANCED’ again. Bucs were wonderfully BALANCED last year in many ways: #3 offense and #8 defense. And they SHOULD have even better balance this year; I expect that our defense can rank in the Top-5 while our offense also ranks in the Top-5.
Got curious about how BALANCED the Patriots were when they appeared in NINE Super Bowls with Tom Brady at the helm between 2001-2018. Yup, they were incredibly BALANCED, with an average offensive ranking of #4 and an averaged defensive ranking of #5. THAT’S BALANCE.
2001 (Won): Offense – #6 (371 Pts Scored); Defense – #6 (272 Pts Allowed)
2003 (Won): Offense – #12 (348 Pts Scored); Defense – #1 (238 Pts Allowed)
2004 (Won): Offense – #4 (437 Pts Scored); Defense – #2 (260 Pts Allowed)
2007 (Lost): Offense – #1 (589 Pts Scored); Defense – #4 (274 Pts Allowed)
2011 (Lost): Offense – #3 (513 Pts Scored); Defense – #15 (342 Pts Allowed)
2014 (Won): Offense – #4 (468 Pts Scored); Defense – #8 (313 Pts Allowed)
2016 (Won): Offense – #3 (441 Pts Scored); Defense – #1 (250 Pts Allowed)
2017 (Lost): Offense – #2 (458 Pts Scored); Defense – #5 (296 Pts Allowed)
2018 (Won): Offense – #4 (436 Pts Scored); Defense – #7 (325 Pts Allowed)
2020 (Won): Offense – #3 (492 Pts Scored); Defense – #8 (355 Pts Allowed)
So Tom Brady has now appeared in 10 Super Bowls, winning 7, losing 3. His teams in all those years have been incredibly BALANCED on offense & defense IMO. Not that hard to conclude that on BALANCED TEAMS, the offense & the defense feed off each other (much like our Bucs did last year, and especially in the playoffs). I see Tom Brady as being a master of playing COMPLEMENTARY FOOTBALL. Saw that with the Pats, and can see that now with the Bucs. Hallelujah !
May 21st, 2021 at 5:35 am
Hey DR, what was the offensive and defensive numbers for the post season compared to the Reg season?
It was on another level. And like Christianson said, if they had 8 more games, how good would they have looked?
Like I said The KRAKEN has been released. GO BUCS!!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 5:58 am
Well said once again “Defense Rules Says: May 21st, 2021 at 5:21 am ”
Lets hope the players are not getting as stoked as we are …. They still have to play and win one game at a time . Nobody is going to just give it to us.
May 21st, 2021 at 5:59 am
Defense Rules- “Balance” is applied to the offense in particular as well. Like those Patriot teams you mention, the Bucs were able to, and most likely will continue, to RUN the ball effectively.
There are so many variables that point to an IMPROVING offense this year that it’s hard to believe. We should be better. Better on BOTH sides of the ball!
Indeed, “scary”!
Yeah, I’m pumped!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 6:01 am
August 1976 Buc … Our defense played at a whole different level during the playoffs IMO. What makes that so interesting to me is that we took out 3 very good offenses (Saints #5, Packers #1 & Chiefs #6). And even though Washington didn’t have a sterling offense (#25), they put up the most total yards (507) of any of the 4 playoff teams we faced, by far. And with a backup QB no less.
May 21st, 2021 at 6:15 am
Bucsfanman … Ya, I’m pumped too. Bucs have the talent to be scary good, but like 2021 Year of the GOAT says … “They still have to play and win one game at a time . Nobody is going to just give it to us.”
The 2007 Patriots still puzzle me. That team was truly dominant: scored 589 points, and only allowed 274 points (a differential of 315 points … wow!). They won all 16 regular season games, then 2 playoff games, and then proceeded to get beaten by the lowly Giants 17-14 in the Super Bowl (Giants were 10-6 that year and snuck in as a wildcard, ranking #14 offensively & #17 defensively). Makes no sense. The Patriots SHOULD have absolutely killed them. And yet, the Pats offense only put up 14 points that day, after averaging 35.6 PPG that season.
As they say: ‘On any given Sunday …’
May 21st, 2021 at 7:12 am
But but but the 🤡oneil said the offense wouldn’t be explosive. And the online would get Brady killed because he’s not mobile. Who makes excuses for losing then turns around and makes excuses for winning oneilbucs that’s who all in the name of a bum!!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 8:42 am
Does anyone else get the sneaking suspicion that Cynthia Frelund is the pretty face while an ugly nerd is crunching the numbers behind the scenes? No disrespect, it’s just that Cynthia looks more like a swimsuit model than a math whiz.
May 21st, 2021 at 8:43 am
I’m sticking with a perfect season until we lose a game. Once we lose a game, i don’t think a perfect season will be in the cards said Capt’n obvious.
May 21st, 2021 at 9:29 am
Lose the Brady paragraph! Please! I’m actually reading fewer articles because you are wasting my time. Yeah it may have been funny the first few times….. interception Champ gets a positive phrase and the GOAT GETS A MIXED PILE IF NONSENSE.
May 21st, 2021 at 9:41 am
MONIKER MANIA!!!!!!! GO BUCS!!!!!
May 21st, 2021 at 9:48 am
A good defense contributes mightily to a good offense. Good defenses give more offensive opportunities through more stops. Give a good offense three of four more turns with the ball through quick stops and those offensive stats look even better.
May 21st, 2021 at 10:35 am
Jeebs…What do you think Kay Adams is? Why the good stuff is on radio. They’re just better than Kelly Ozbourne.
May 21st, 2021 at 10:53 am
PSK…Highly unlikely to happen, but yes it is annoying to have to stop and have to find the beginning of the article again. It’s a defense mechanism to add more length and be able to write more articles. But whatever. Like I said. Highly unlikely.
May 21st, 2021 at 11:29 am
Coming from that women , i dont care if shes wrong. Ill listen and see all day long what she has to say. Sweet tasting