Trading Down, Trading Out?
April 7th, 2021
Bucs GM Jason Licht
The Bucs’ 2021 offseason philosophy leaves the team ripe for unique and forward-thinking decisions.
This was a subject this week for former Jets executive and linebackers coach Pat Kirwan, the ex-Bucs scout who now makes his living as the No. 1 voice on SiriusXM NFL Radio.
Kirwan was marveling at the offseason work of Super Bowl general manager Jason Licht and wondered aloud if this is the time for Licht to not just trade down in the 2021 NFL Draft, but also to trade out of the draft and stock up on picks for 2022.
In Kirwan’s mind, it will be almost impossible for a rookie to crack the Bucs’ 2021 lineup, so maybe it’s better to have more youth in future years. Shockingly, confident Kirwan didn’t have an answer or a firm opinion because it’s not clear cut.
Bucco Bruce Arians and Tom Brady have little time left in town, but Team Glazer, Licht and Bucs fans have a lot. So it’s certainly prudent for them to still maintain a long-term view of the team.
Joe hopes the Bucs keep their foot on the gas in the draft this month. If Licht can nail it again, then the roster becomes that much more dangerous. And more rookies to become indoctrinated by the Brady way is ideal.
Plus, the Bucs’ good fortune with injuries can’t last forever; an extra 2022 third-round pick can’t make a big January tackle.
April 7th, 2021 at 10:47 am
Isn’t the amount of cap money available to sign draft picks a big part of this decision? I’m no expert but maybe trading down for this reason (less immediate $ needs) is a good move.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:06 am
Here is the bottom line…if we believe a first round pick must contribute big time immediately, and we have no holes for a big time pick to break into the starting lineup, makes great sense to believe trading down for a guy ready a year or two from now, and an additional pick, might be the smart play.
And Casual…don’t worry about cap money to sign our draft picks. Licht can likely make one phone call to arrange to restructure someone and make room almost immediately.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:06 am
I would trade back with Jax or Miami for their two 2nd round picks. Maybe it will cost a 1 & 4th rounder. Then Miami or Jax can lock somebody down on a 5 year contract.
Select two future All Pros, Safety Andre Cisco from Syracuse who is the best S on the board. He’s bigger than Winfield, faster and he can cover better. I’m not saying to replace Winfield but to replace Whitehead or even play the slot. He will be there because he’s coming off an ACL from October 2020. The Bucs can take their time working him into the line up.
Select Walker Little who is a Top 20 over all pick (Chris Simms) O-lineman from Stanford. He can replace Joe Hauck. He’ll be available because he’s coming off an ACL from the 1st game of 2019 and he opted out in 2020 due to personal reasons.
It will be like Marpet and D Smith in the 2nd only better.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:09 am
Running back is the only position we can draft in the first round that might become a starter immediately. And thats if we get Najee, Etienne or Williams. And we might be able to get one of them, if we trade down a couple of spots also.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:10 am
I would definitely consider swapping out 2021 picks for better picks in 2022 and 2023. The 2021 picks would be hard placed to make the roster, so why waste them. Any gaps can be filled by undrafted rookies and possibly some castaway picks toward the end of the summer. Buc’s could end up with 21+ picks over those next two years.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:25 am
I’d be 100% OK with trading down, especially for next year picks.
This draft class, overall, is the poorest I can recall, a result of, I suspect, the lockdowns, panic, overreaction, lack of off-season programs, and assorted issues brought on by the Wuhan flu.
Now is an excellent time to stockpile picks, or go all-in and get a solid future QB project.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:26 am
It’s really a great position to be in. We don’t NEED a draft pick to come in and start. Sure, we’re going to have injuries and so forth, that’s a given. What we have here is the ability to draft for future production. If the right player isn’t available to us, we trade.
Would be a good draft to look to groom players.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:28 am
With a “win now” mentality, I would expect a trade up if anything, so that you can find that person who can come in and contribute immediately in the 1st and 2nd round area.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:31 am
Shifting them to the 2022 draft would be great. We should be well past the Trump Flu by then, and better be able to evaluate the talent in that future draft.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:39 am
IMO they are still working a long term deal with CG so they can tear up the tag and make all the room necessary for our draft class.
April 7th, 2021 at 11:48 am
Someone is going to fall to 32 I would not pass on Owusu-Koromoah. Stop the future QB project it makes no sense because when TB leaves so will BA. Build a team for the future QB.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:25 pm
Trading out sounds kinda dumb. Trading down, say from 32 and converting that into two second rounders, if they like the prospects for edge rusher and DT at those spots, sounds like a plan.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:27 pm
Oh I hope you’re wrong about Brady and BA not staying around long. I pray to the football Gods Brady steps in at HC or some other high ranking position.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:45 pm
Ghost of Darrell Henderson Says: “Select two future All Pros, Safety Andre Cisco from Syracuse who is the best S on the board. He’s bigger than Winfield, faster and he can cover better.”
Crazy talk – speed is not everything. Antoine Winfield was the best playing rookie safety last year…..not because of his speed but because of his instincts. As for speed, Winfield ran a 4.46 while Andre Cisco ran a 4.61. In college, Winfield in his last year had a school record for 7 interceptions….Andre Cisco had only 6 interceptions in the last two years combined…plus an ACL injury which makes him more injury prone. Not sure what stats you were reading?
April 7th, 2021 at 12:46 pm
Trade out. Don’t think of this pick as oooooh a first rounder. It’s really a high second. That’s true for every pick, the second round pick is really a high 3rd and so on. Value comes from taking as many stabs as possible. Once you get past the first 20 or so position players that aren’t Qb’s, it’s a real crap shoot. Why not get 3 3rd rounders, presumably one in the high 3rd, you are expanding your chances of sticking gold.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:47 pm
The beauty of the pick is that they have few needs and all night to do something with it. I think the pick has move value in trade, but would be pleasantly surprised if Licht were to be lucky enough to have one of his high valued targets fall to him at 32. Can you imagine the buzz it would make if Licht used that pick to draft a QB? The fanciful projections of the all the Blue Chippers would fall at the wayside as the talking heads finished the night discussing the heir apparent. I can see Team Glazer getting behind it.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:53 pm
If a ridiculously great prospect falls to 32, regardless of position, you grab him. If they are all taken then you trade, if possible.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:56 pm
There is a lot of talent late second, third and fourth round. You have got a lot of players on the last year of their contracts might as well get them in here now to learn the system. Trade Howard or Brate for a 2022 pick.
April 7th, 2021 at 12:59 pm
It probably depends who is still there when the Bucs are on the clock at 32. If there was ever a draft that the Bucs would take quality over quantity, it would be this year.
April 7th, 2021 at 1:04 pm
The Bucs are in the best situation when it comes to trading down. No glaring needs but te need to build foe the future. If it meant getting another 2nd and a later round pick I am all for it.
April 7th, 2021 at 1:23 pm
Ghost: Walker Little’s pro day wasn’t good, ran a 5.26 at 6-7, 313. That’s C/OG speed. Little could potentially still be a day 2 pick he had good tape, but he doesn’t have that, either (injuries, opt out). I’ve seen him rated as low as the 16th best OT, most sites have him around 11th best.
April 7th, 2021 at 2:31 pm
trading our first for say 3 2nd round picks for years to come would be a nice move..
April 7th, 2021 at 2:45 pm
When ya arent good you trade down and score more picks. When its luxury season you trade up and give up all the low rounders. Put all the chips into the first three rounds Licht! Find some guys who can push the starters!
April 7th, 2021 at 2:52 pm
No matter what, the first night of the draft is going to be a long one.
April 7th, 2021 at 7:49 pm
The Bucs face some turnover in the near future. Their success at building through the draft consistently was one of the reasons they possessed a championship level of talent. Brady recognized this along with Patriots inability to draft and retain quality made his move to Tampa a smart and successful one. Bucs can make winning sustainable bye continuing down the path they’re on. Fill holes in the roster through free agency and increase talent and value through the draft. Go Bucs !
April 7th, 2021 at 8:47 pm
Walker Little a draftable OT. He is late 2nd to early 4th rounder.
There is a good 7 OT’s better than him in this draft. Deep OT draft. Not sure there are any as good as Wirfs though.
April 8th, 2021 at 12:41 am
Secondary can still improve.
And you can never have enough pass rushers.
You can always be better.
April 8th, 2021 at 1:57 am
geno711: I’m not saying Walker Little is bad, he might be good, I just have questions…Looking at his measurables (6′-7″, 313, 5.26), they’re along the lines of Josh Wells (6′-6″, 315, 5.25 when he was drafted). Is he a LT? Is he a RT? Is he a Guard, and would you want a 6′-7″ Guard? I like other OL prospects more than Little.
April 8th, 2021 at 2:02 am
Jalen Mayfield of Michigan is an even more questionable prospect, IMHO. I wouldn’t take him in the first 2 rounds. We’ll see.