Method Behind The Madness
April 23rd, 2021
Bucs GM Jason Licht
This time of the year, less than a week before the draft, people are hanging on every syllable spoken by a team suit or coach in an effort to figure out their team’s draft.
Shoot, go back and watch Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht from earlier in the week. The guy was more guarded than Centcom at MacDill.
Because of this, people take an innocent — though slowly, carefully chosen answer — and run wild with it. For example, Licht said obtaining accurate medical intel on players is more challenging without a traditional combine (where players are examined like an astronaut before liftoff).
Then Joe reads a fan on social media claiming, “Oh, Licht is worried about medicals. Take any player with a medical question off the board.”
Licht noted that what folks see at home or in bars next weekend when the Bucs make their selections won’t often be the same view of those behind the walls at One Buc Palace.
“There are only so many players in the draft,” Licht said. “This year’s draft seems a bit more tilted towards offensively, in my opinion at least. That’s not to say there aren’t players at every position we have targeted throughout the entire draft.
“Your needs and your desires in April are completely different when it comes time for September. Sometimes you take a player and people scratch their head, ‘Why would they take him?’ Then come September — or December, for that matter — you are glad you took him.”
As for selecting at No. 32, Licht is confident there are several options. Trading down? Licht didn’t seem overly enthusiastic about that. He said he would have to weigh the benefit of collecting, say, a fifth-round pick in a trade down when that player likely won’t make the team.
(So is Licht going to use Day 3 picks to move up in the first round?)
“There are not as many high-end players as there have been in the past,” Licht said. “But we feel pretty good where we are at. We feel there will be an option for us, or several options for us at No. 32 that we will feel comfortable with if we stay with the pick.”
This is part of what makes the NFL draft so fun. First, it’s the long, drawn out drama of the thing (way too drawn out in Joe’s eyes), and the massive puzzle fans have to solve as to who Licht and the Bucs will pick.
DRAFT PARTY!
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Thursday night, April 29!
Giveaways, special guests, and more. Ira Kaufman and Joe will be in the house starting at 7 p.m.
Two lucky fans attending will each win a $300 American Express gift card thanks to Joe’s friends at Florida’s Elite Restoration. (More cool Bucs giveaways, too.) Joe is fired up for a great time with Florida’s best craft beer, amazing food and great fans. Joe loves Big Storm Clearwater,
April 23rd, 2021 at 6:57 am
Good point on trade down and whats the point of a an extra fifth or sixth round who wont make team. Its not like years past where we could fill positions with late picks
(And i know brady was taken in sixth)
If they do trade back or whatever , maybe it should be for better picks next year
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:14 am
I wanna see Licht completely fleece another team’s GM in this draft. Because he’s done everything else u could do in the last year.
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:15 am
Trading up with the Jags or Dolphins for their 2nd 1st round pick has potential as both teams are chock full of draft picks already. JL down played the notion of trading down, well played, send the message you are not interested, hence the price for that spot goes up🤑
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:26 am
….or you trade some of your 3rd picks for draft picks next year (usually you gain a round in value if you accept a draft pick in a trade for the following year instead of the same year
As alluded to by Daniel Jeremiah, the amount of medicals performed this year were SIGNIFICANTLY less than a normal year w/ a Combine. This he stated that once you get past the top 1/2 of the draft and into the later rounds, you’re “flying by the seat of your pants” as far as what you know medically and injuries and so forth.
I think you’d get extra value by doing this. You’d also (hopefully) have more intel on players under more “normal” circumstances next year to evaluate and do medical checks as you usually would.
And as Jason Stated, the odds of any later round draft picks making the roster this year are slim to none anyways. Might as well get value and not just throw your draft picks to the wayside (this may be the draft where we package some draft picks to move up and get one of the few guys we want, especially considering this ain’t a super deep draft of top-tier talent)
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:44 am
If Mac Jones falls to 13th or 14th move up trade this years 1st round next years 2nd round and OJ Howard. The Chargers lost Hunter Henry to free agency they could use a tight end.
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:54 am
I’m sorry but there is no way the bucs are trading up for mac jones
April 23rd, 2021 at 7:57 am
Doesnt sound like jason is impressed with the defensive talent in this draft in general might not be the right pick but elijah Moore seems like such a fun pick for the bucs at 32
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:14 am
I keep hearing about Jones’ arm, out lack thereof. It’s it even as strong as Brady’s?
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:19 am
Oh wow, I love articles like this Joe. You started off with “people take an innocent — though slowly, carefully chosen answer — and run wild with it.” Then BAM, because JL says “There are not as many high-end players as there have been in the past,” we end up with … tada …
‘So is Licht going to use Day 3 picks to move up in the first round?’
Nah, no running wild there. Ah yes, gotta love it.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:20 am
Thanks Jason for saying what I’ve been saying about trading down. Our first three picks will probably make the team, after that, good luck. You stockpile picks when building a team, not when you’re chasing another ring. I’d rather trade up then down. Package some late round picks, to move up instead. If a player is within reach in the first round that you really like, move up for him too.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:24 am
Licht said there appears to be more offensive players in this draft. Hopefully this equates to more teams ahead of the Bucs picking up offensive players. If so, perhaps several good DL falls in the Bucs lap.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:25 am
I do like the idea of trading 3rd day picks to move up in earlier rounds…..we don’t need a bunch of players who may not make the team….Use UDFAs for that and we should have our pick since we are Champions.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:26 am
I agree with those about trading up (Yes) vs trading down (No). After the draft when teams release a bunch of vets, Bucs will likely add 3 to 5 veterans chasing rings on minimum deals. At best, I expect 4 draft picks to make this team so trade mid and late rounders to move up to middle of second and third round. A veteran GM once said that most drafts produce 75 to 100 NFL players capable of playing more than 3 years in the league. This is generally equivalent to the first 3 rounds. Based on busts and other factors, you can still find good players in rounds 4 and 5 but it becomes rare and anything in rounds 6 and 7 is like hitting a lottery if a player does anything but contribute on special teams for a couple of years.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:27 am
Hodad says, “You stockpile picks when building a team, not when you’re chasing another ring.”
In most cases, this is true but unlike the Tampa Bay lightning for example, the Bucs have no holes in their starting lineup. They can essentially stockpile to get quality backups.
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:34 am
Waterboy, where will these 3-5 vets be playing on this team? Where do we find 3-5 million on top of rookie salaries?
Certainly they won’t be starters, certainly not adding guys where we already have depth and add to it with these 4 rookies you expect to make the team.
Elaborate I’m curious!
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:37 am
Much ado about nothing. Nobody knows anything, but all will be revealed in a week!
April 23rd, 2021 at 8:55 am
Waterboy:
Excellent point. The Bucs are in win-now mode. Those released vets (remember Playoff Lenny?) will likely give the Bucs better play than a fifth- or sixth-round pick.
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:02 am
You know Licht in past drafts has had the RB he was dreaming about snatched a few picks before the Bucs… maybe he’ll treat himself this year if he can.
The team is missing a EXPLOSIVE RB or WR
Oh well….
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:03 am
Okay Joe too then, elaborate where all these guys fit? Are these vets hungry enough to play special teams? 1 guy (like Lenny) sure, but 3-5? You haven’t convinced me.
Backup QB, swing Olineman, DL/edge and maybe corner are the only holes available and I’d expect most of those to be filled with premium rookies, not latter round guys.
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:10 am
A roster is 52 men, 27 of which are backups. You don’t think a couple of vets signed could be backup o-line, backup linebacker, backup safety, etc?
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:11 am
I think the pick is going to be an edge defender. I wonder what the Bucs’ board looks like. My guess is we get one of these guys depending on who gets pick in front of us:
Jayson Oweh
Jaelan Phillips
Azeez Ojulari
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
I think the pick will make Joe happy (I have seen he wants Etienne but he also loves a the pass rush!)
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:11 am
Leighroy Says: “Okay Joe too then, elaborate where all these guys fit? Are these vets hungry enough to play special teams? 1 guy (like Lenny) sure, but 3-5? You haven’t convinced me.”
These Vets will not be competing as starters….rather they will be quality backups or third options such as Antonio Brown at WR. There a plenty of spots to make the team as backups (QB, WR, LB, DL, OL, DB and special teams).
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:44 am
Not drafting the players available at our draft spots, will hurt our teams long term options. Why not draft for the best players available at our draft spots @ 4-7? Top 3 rounds see who fits the board. 1st if we have a trade that gives us more draft Capitol
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:44 am
Charles Davis has a list of 17 players that he thinks are very good but will slip to the 2 round.
There seems to be some solid talent on OL and CB.
We need OL through the draft. Way too much money tied up there and we need to get a jump on next year especially at LT and C.
CB we need to get better at too.
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:50 am
we have a lot of players on 1 year deals or on the final year of their rookie deals…thats the advantage of trading down and collecting picks….getting players into your program so they can start developing….
why wait to fill a hole when you know its coming….fill it now….that gives you more flexibility down the road with premium pick….
GO BUCS!!!!
April 23rd, 2021 at 10:37 am
I think you guys are missing my point. I recognize there are 27 backups, but many of these backups are either already on the team or will be rounded out by rookies this year. I can see AB signing, and maybe a backup QB but not much else and here’s my reasons why:
– Backup S will be the 4th guy in a rotation behind Mike Edwards.
– Backup CB will be the 4th guy in a rotation behind Jamel Dean.
– Backup DT will be 5th in a rotation behind Steve McLendon and Nacho.
– Backup LB/Edge will be behind either Kevin Minter or Anthony Nelson. A 1st or 2nd round pick might slot ahead of Nelson.
– Aaron Stinnie was resigned as your current 6th OL, and everyone’s clamoring for a premium draft pick to be spent on OL too.
– Another WR would either push Tyler Johnson and Scooter further down the depth chart (AB in this case) or have to be the 5th guy on the depth chart (and he better return kicks too).
I just named 6 positions for rookies to make the roster and play special teams, not to sign vets. I’ll keep an open mind, but explain exactly where I’m wrong here if you want to convince me?
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:03 am
A Pandemic, a Super Bowl Win by the Home Team, The best 44 Year Old QB in the history of the game, and all 22 Starting players plus essential back-ups Re-signed from the winning Super Bowl team??? Add to that No Combine, No Preseason, Optional OTA’s. and a 17 game regular Season. Finally it looks like many of us are going to be shelling-out big bucks for our favorite players new number. My advise, “sit back with your favorite beverage and for the first time in a long time enjoy this “Abbot and Costello, Whose on First,” Season.” I doubt most of us will ever see it again.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:21 am
Joe, would you go all-in with dropping late round picks??
Knowing the jack squat that I know, I would be game for trading away all of the 4th+ round picks. What a great point about “who is going to be good enough to even make the 53 man roster. Even some of our 3rd string players don’t suck bad enough to get beaten out by a 4th round pick.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:31 am
Leighroy … A big part of me agrees with your logic about signing additional vets this year. You’re right in that we’ve got a strong starting rotation on both sides of the ball AND our key S/T players, PLUS we’ve also got some very talented key rotational players. I think it’d be hard for any ‘new guy’ … be they a rookie or a vet FA … to get any appreciable snaps this season.
Three situations come to mind though. One is obvious: injuries. They’re a fact of life in the NFL, and DEPTH is a very valuable commodity. Experienced vets can be worth their weight in gold if the injury bug decimates any particular position group.
Another fact of life I think is that competition is a VERY good thing. IMO it brings out the best in every player, EVEN OUR STARTERS.
The third factor is a bit more subjective, but just as real I think. The team that has someone signed & on their roster one year has a leg up on signing them the next year because of the way the NFL’s FA rules are written. Kinda allows you to ‘pick & choose’ about who to re-sign & who to let walk BEFORE the other teams even have a chance to enter the fight. And that’s in addition to being able to franchise tag a key player to keep them in the fold.
What I think is gonna be hard is finding a place on our roster for rookies chosen in Rnds 5-7 this year. Such a nice problem to have.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:52 am
If it means a chance at getting a guy who will have an impact on gamedays this fall? Sure.
It’s all about 2021. The future is now.
April 23rd, 2021 at 12:26 pm
@Leighroy, Im with you.
Thats why I feel Landon Dickerson (if he’s even still available) at 32 would fill immediate impact plus set our future at Center. He can be a rotational Guard too…and look at his size and strength, dude is a BEAST! And who better to learn behind than our nasty beast Jensen. We all know Brady can use more protection at this stage.
Then Rondale Moore who can be exactly whats been missing from our KR/PR dept. He’ll be gone by the end of the 2nd, so I say trade up to about 55-58, he just might still be there.
Then Darius Stills to fill out that D line depth. He reminds of Sapp as fast as he moves for a big guy. Watch his tape, he’s almost always in the backfield.
So, theres O line, wr/kr/pr, D line. I keep coming back to this since I have some time off work. Im looking at other scenarios but this one just seems perfect if we can pull it off.
April 23rd, 2021 at 4:31 pm
My brain’s gone comatose as far as all of this Draft talk and “guessing” is concerned ! In Light I trust ! Stop speculating , he’s done a GREAT job (especially last year) in evaluating and drafting players . I realize that’s all there is to talk about now but I’m growing weary of it all . I’ll just wait and be excited to see who our 1st pick is .
April 23rd, 2021 at 9:15 pm
Special teams is a real need. If you suck, it will bite you in the end. Draft kids that played special teams in college. You have the luxury those guys because you don’t have any other real need.