Jamel Dean & The 2021 NFL Draft
April 20th, 2021
Cloning?
One great thing about the NFL Draft, aside from the Bucs picking at No. 32, is the fact that evaluating players will always be a changing and inexact science.
It’s what makes the draft fun, and what makes draft gurus (and team executives) who think they know it all a laughable crew.
In recent years, data has played a greater role in player evaluation. And the typically objective numbers from NextGen NFL stats, derived via technology, are being twisted a bit to predict the fate of college players, and simultaneously draw clicks to NFL.com.
The NextGen analysts crafted a formula to predict the NFL success of college cornerbacks, and Joe learned today that those number crunchers believe the cornerback most likely to make the Pro Bowl from the last five NFL drafts is Tampa Bay’s Jamel Dean.
Only three cornerbacks have entered the draft between 2016 and 2020 with a higher chance of making a Pro Bowl within their first three seasons than [Jaycee] Horn (27%): Marshon Lattimore (31%) and Denzel Ward (29%) both made the all-star game in Year 1, while Jamel Dean (41%) played a key role in the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl LV run.
Obviously, the data junkies missed the mark, but it is interesting to see Dean as the overwhelming choice. A long injury history dropped Dean to late in Round 3 of the 2019 draft, where the Bucs chose him at No. 94 overall.
This all brings Joe to draft-prospect cornerback Eric Stokes out of Georgia. Joe doesn’t care how the NextGen folks grade him, but Joe sure sees similarities to Dean in length, blazing speed, and a willingness to tackle. Stokes, however, doesn’t have the injury history, and he appears faster than Dean after clocking sub-4.3-second 40 times at his Pro Day.
Stokes (four interceptions last season) feels a lot like the kind of aggressive, physical and long cornerback that the Bucs like under Todd Bowles.
The Bucs don’t have any true needs, so Joe doesn’t want to hear about how Stokes would be a wasted pick at No. 32 or later, if the Bucs traded down. Stokes would inject competition into the Bucs cornerbacks mix, and he’d likely be a beast on special teams: two things that would make Joe smile.
JoeBucsFan DRAFT PARTY!
Thursday, April 29th, 7 p.m. til ???
Be there!!!
April 20th, 2021 at 12:29 pm
Would have no problem with Stokes. Once again, it depends on how the draft falls to us of course. Hoping for lots of first-round quarterbacks and overdrafting of some workout warriors. Production and tape over numbers always.
April 20th, 2021 at 12:29 pm
*numbers meaning workout numbers
April 20th, 2021 at 12:33 pm
Jamel Dean, with his speed and height has a much higher ceiling than Carlton Davis. Sean Murphy-Bunting is also on the rise. He played very well late in the season and in the post season.
April 20th, 2021 at 12:42 pm
If they traded back in the second, I would have no problem Bowels taking a CB in three or four. Battle Dean for number two. Possible safety net for Davis in contract year. Possibly turns us into secondary depth. And championship teams have depth every year. Ask Stinnie.
April 20th, 2021 at 12:43 pm
*possibly great secondary depth.
April 20th, 2021 at 12:48 pm
I like our current DBs. After watching as many interviews I can find with them, one thing is clear. They are like brothers. They pick on each other and are very competitive off the field. They can annoy each other like brothers do sometimes. Dean is always treated like the younger brother and gets picked on the most. But when they step on the field they play together and have the right attitude. They have each other’s back. IMO all our young DBs have improved and will continue to raise their game. I think it is clear that the hardest position to play on defense in the NFL is DB, especially when you are not afforded good pass rushers up front. This is why I will never be upset with selecting pass rushers in the draft. A good pass rush helps the entire D.
April 20th, 2021 at 1:02 pm
Makes sense to draft on defense. Bowles is doing a solid job of bringing the younger guys along. Also the side of the ball with the higher chance of a rookie contributing to this season. Im 50-50 on them trading the pick vs. making a selection. It is exciting to see what they do, as well as what they do after the draft. A gift that just keeps giving, and one I never expected to experience in my lifetime. A Buc life indeed.
April 20th, 2021 at 1:08 pm
Pro day 40 times are always faster because they are hand timed I wouldn’t say he is faster than dean who ran a 4.3 at the combine wouldn’t mind olb at 32 or corner
April 20th, 2021 at 1:11 pm
We need at least 2 cb’s so lets.draft one
April 20th, 2021 at 1:11 pm
After winning the superbowl. This draft is just icing on the cake. You can take a chance on a athlete you can take a chance on the best available period. Fun Fun time to be Bucs fan.
April 20th, 2021 at 1:22 pm
I love looking at all these mock drafts as it’s fun to automatically scroll all the way to the bottom to see who someone thinks we’re going to take this week. I can’t wait to get this draft going but I believe we won’t know who our beloved Bucs will draft until day 2. I see us moving down and gathering an extra 2nd and maybe 3rd or 4th and then getting some nice pieces that can contribute on STs and rotational basis gaining great experience for the future.
April 20th, 2021 at 1:39 pm
I’m w/ Joe on this one
April 20th, 2021 at 1:50 pm
We will take a corner in the draft after losing Smith and not replacing him. I am just not sure where we will do it. I guess the same can be said for our entire team feels great to have no true needs/weakness.
April 20th, 2021 at 1:54 pm
We could do a lot worse
April 20th, 2021 at 2:17 pm
trade up for farley…
April 20th, 2021 at 2:38 pm
Im with Joe on this one. I like Stokes as a prospect for the Bucs. It’s crazy, but he could be their 1st round pick and be their dime corner.
April 20th, 2021 at 2:42 pm
Football players that play well are never wasted picks Joe. Sometimes you’re right sometimes you’re wrong, like the rest of us.
April 20th, 2021 at 2:51 pm
Seems like there will be good value at CB position throughout the draft and I still see it as a need. I think the Buc’s are unlikely to give a high dollar contract to either Carlton Davis or Rojo next year so this might be a year were we take a running and a corner back.
Seems like the interior defense line candidates are week. I would probably not draft there this year. There will be teams over drafting that position.
Remember the 2019 draft. All the bucs fan wanting us to take an OT then. The guys in that draft for OL were not generally special. We waited to 2020 and took Wirfs.
Remember the 2020 draft. In the 2nd round, the fans wanted a running back but by the time we drafted, the better ones were gone. Instead of reaching, we took the 1st round talent of Winfield in the 2nd round.
Take guys that will be able to make plays on the field. If the talented edge guys and DL guys are not there when you pick. Just pick the best NFL football player. A lot of good corners so I would not be surprised if we picked one early.
April 20th, 2021 at 3:08 pm
It seems like there will be many players worth a mid-second round pick but not at 32…..perhaps we should trade down in the first and then trade up in the second getting 2 good 2nd round picks.
I think in this draft it’s important to get 2 or 3 quality players instead of a bunch of prospects…
April 20th, 2021 at 3:14 pm
Cool with me, last I checked we had 0 all pros in the secondary last year.
April 20th, 2021 at 3:30 pm
“The Bucs don’t have any true needs, so Joe doesn’t want to hear about how Stokes would be a wasted pick at No. 32 or later, if the Bucs traded down.” Joe, you’re the one who’s been preaching that in the current “win now” mode, you don’t draft someone who won’t start on Day 1. Do you believe Stokes is better than the group we already have? I’m not against it. It just seems you’ve been fixated on Etienne and edge rushers, and now you’re jumping on the CB bandwagon.
April 20th, 2021 at 3:51 pm
There are two things that are very exciting for me now……Because we won the SB…..we played until Feb 7……so the draft is right around the corner…no waiting wondering & speculating for months & months…
And, for the first time ever as a Buc fan….our number one draft pick will likely not be a starter…..
Think about that…..our first pick will likely not crack our starting lineup….that’s how talented we are.
April 20th, 2021 at 5:51 pm
Dean ran a 4.29 at the combine which is legit. Stokes running a sub 4.3 in Georgia is always going to be viewed as suspect. That being said, Stokes and Newsom are very much in play. The bucs seem to value pass break-ups though and Newsom is tough to beat in that category.
April 20th, 2021 at 5:57 pm
trade up for Farley
this team don’t need 6 below average players that likely will not make the team we need to trade up with all our firepower and get Farley
April 20th, 2021 at 6:43 pm
I still say you are going to need a 5th year option on a QB. You will only get those in the first round. To have a QB come up for a contract in 4 years will hurt.
April 20th, 2021 at 6:46 pm
You let Brady pick his QB. The man knows what to look for in a player