Caution!
April 27th, 2021
Be careful.
Information and intel. That’s what draft prep is all about.
And in an effort to uncover potential booms and/or busts with lesser names in the draft, Robert Simpson, who types for The 33rd Team, which is Mike Tannenbaum’s outfit, unveiled mathematical sorcery called “Athletic Source Indicator (ASI)” This data claims it can predict the fate of a draft prospect with 59-79 percent accuracy.
In other words, a good guess.
The stats focus on the physical attributes generally sought by NFL scouts, like wingspan, catch radius, quickness and so on.
Now earlier this year, there was a lot of chatter in #DraftMedia that the Bucs had a thing for UCLA wide receiver turned running back Demetric Felton.
Well, Bucs fans better brace themselves. In choosing the top-five breakout sleepers in the draft and top-five bust candidates using this ASI hocus pocus, Simpson types that this Felton has “bust” written all over him. At best, claims Simpson, Felton will be is a gimmick player or a special teams guy.
2. Demetric Felton, RB, UCLA
A converted WR, Felton is an interesting case and had an explosive showing at the Senior Bowl. Nonetheless, he received the lowest ASI score of any RB prospect drafted since 2012.
Here are the five measurables found most important for RBs and how Felton scored relative to position:
Speed Score – 80 (0 percentile)
Hand Size – 9 3/8 in (55th percentile)
Shuttle – 4.51s (11th percentile
BMI – 28.2 (10th percentile)
Bench – 9 reps (2nd percentile)
Felton’s 0 percentile speed score is a testament to his lack of size as a RB, below 5-9, 190 pounds, and without the elite speed to compensate. While he may be a fun gadget player, his potential as a highly successful RB may be in doubt.
Now Joe is the first one to say “Hold up!” These are just stats. They cannot measure health, heart or smarts. And yes, no matter how much the stat geeks scream to no one in particular while playing Stellaris, those things matter.
So we shall see how Felton pans out.
If the Bucs draft him on Day 3.
(FYI, we know how Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht nails off-the-radar offensive linemen in the draft. University of Pittsburgh four-year starting center Jimmy Morressey had a higher ASI score than Ali Marpet. Something to think about this weekend.)
April 27th, 2021 at 11:16 am
I actually like Felton and he’s had numerous meetings with the Bucs. This Bucs draft? Anyone and everyone is ABSOLUTELY CLUELESS to what Licht will do.
April 27th, 2021 at 11:19 am
Landon Dickerson
Rondale Moore
Darius Stills
Mac Mccain
and yes i know the injury histories
April 27th, 2021 at 11:26 am
bench- 9 reps. seriously.
that probably in the low percentile of all adult males, couch potatoes included.
slow, small and weak. not good. unless he squats 700 lol
April 27th, 2021 at 11:36 am
The fixation on RBs is puzzling……I thought edge rusher was the position that created the erections.
April 27th, 2021 at 11:39 am
No thanks.
April 27th, 2021 at 11:42 am
BEST AVAILABLE PLAYER O-Line, DLine, Secondary GO BUCS!!!!
April 27th, 2021 at 11:43 am
Joe has written the following on this site in recent weeks, and said this on Ira’s pod several times already: Here’s No. 219.
The Bucs are trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. You may have heard Arian say, “Go for Two.” The Bucs have a 44-year old QB and a coach who has not committed to 2022. Everything else is or should be way down the list at No. 2. Full and total focus on February 2022. There is no next year. The future is now. While you cannot have enough pass rushers, the Bucs need guys that can make an impact on the field now. This year. Immediately. Pass rushers rarely have an impact as a rookie (yes, there are exceptions and Joe is not interested in chasing outliers this year, nor should the Bucs). What position has the lowest learning curve? Running back. What position has three guys in the final year of their contracts? Running back.
Hope that clears things up.
April 27th, 2021 at 11:57 am
Perhaps Licht is interviewing for walk-on free agents after the draft.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:01 pm
Linemen outside of the top tier guys don’t have an immediate impact either.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:06 pm
Lol. Joe you had me at 33rd pick. Jags been biggest bust for a looong time. He can be possibly be used in the return games. He’s small. Not slow no matter you read. Return game needs to be fixed.
Will have no doubt for any player Licht and these coaches pick up. Love it.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:08 pm
I don’t know enough about Felton to have an opinion. On day three though C David Moore or East Carolina’s OL D’Ante Smith (plays all 5 positions) would be excellent picks.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:14 pm
Center also in the final year, DT also in the final year….not saying we cant re-sign them but hey, lets plug some new talent in there. And look, you know Im an Eteinne fan, buts hes gone by the time we pick, Zaven Collins fan too, both gone by the time we pick….is what it is lol. Man I cant wait for this draft!!!
April 27th, 2021 at 12:26 pm
Two of our TEs are in their final year…..Jensen, Cappa, JPP, Suh, Gholston……Godwin is also….and we haven’t resigned AB….how about a top WR for impact?
In order for a RB to have a huge impact…he has to get on the field often….so….I guess we bench Rojo & Fournette…..don’t use Gio much….and don’t activate Vaughn to the final 47(48)
That’s where I’m coming from.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:31 pm
madmax
mac mcclain would be a great pick imo…we need another slot CB who can play outside in a pinch….
love r.moore skills but man…lol..the injuries….lol…
i think folks are sleeping on anthony schwartz from auburn….
GO BUCS!!!!
April 27th, 2021 at 12:39 pm
TBBF
“In order for a RB to have a huge impact…he has to get on the field often….so….I guess we bench Rojo & Fournette…..don’t use Gio much….and don’t activate Vaughn to the final 47(48)”
Exactly why a RB in the first is ridiculous. They like Vaughn and went and got Gio for a reason. Probably so they don’t have to draft a pass catching RB in the first and focus on trenches and secondary.
I smell a trade a comin…Would love to ruin Bucs fans draft night.
April 27th, 2021 at 12:42 pm
A midround pic to address our only team weakness (punt returns) makes sense to me.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:06 pm
@813, I checked out Schwartz, looks like a good sleeper….we need sleepers since we’re picking at the end of each round.
And @Casual, i agree. Thats why i want Rondale Moore. Plus he can be that speedy over the middle guy that Brady loves….right there with scooter. 2 small strong and fast WR’s to go with Evans and Godwin…forget about AB and him wanting too much $$.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:09 pm
I’ve said the same thing about Felton. Nothing special player. Just barely fast enough for the college game, not nearly shifty enough for his slight stature. Hard pass for me other than late in the draft.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:09 pm
The Bucs have two starting RBs, a 3rd down specialist and the 3rd round pick from last year. RBs are a dime a dozen, they shouldn’t be drafting someone unless it’s late and he’s a returner.
April 27th, 2021 at 1:16 pm
Public draft “intel and information” is AKA “Liar’s Poker.”
Same spit, different year…
April 27th, 2021 at 1:23 pm
Hey Joe, is there any data on Emmitt Smith’s ASI? He didn’t appear to have all that much athletic talent, but did have the intangibles. Vision, intelligence, determination.
April 27th, 2021 at 2:18 pm
Show Me, I wanted the Bucs to draft Emmitt, but then head coach Ray Perkins said he was to slow for the NFL, and passed. Everyone gets so caught up on the numbers, when all they have to do is watch the tape. When I hear things like the Penn St LB moving up the draft boards because of his work out, my head wants to explode. If he couldn’t get to the QB playing in college, it sure as hell ain’t happening at the next level no matter what he looks like in shorts.
April 27th, 2021 at 3:49 pm
Rather have Kenneth Gainwell
April 27th, 2021 at 4:01 pm
Soebuc
Everyone outside the few in Lichts office this week have no idea. Every year. That’s one reason we love it so much. We all want who we want and hope the brass agrees.
April 27th, 2021 at 7:03 pm
Rather have michael carter I’d they do indeed draft a rb later on in the draft definitely not in the first
April 27th, 2021 at 9:09 pm
Guy reminds me of Archie Griffin, GREAT college player, meh pro player
April 28th, 2021 at 12:47 pm
So he’s slow, small, and weak?
Sounds like Vernon Hargreaves.
Hard pass.