Assessing Trade Value Of The No. 32 Overall Pick
April 8th, 2021
”Look, Glazer, we trade down if I say we trade down. I’m the Super Bowl GM.”
The Super Bowl winner traded its subsequent No. 32 overall draft pick in 2016, 2017 and in 2018.
You can judge which team fared best in each trade; Joe is more interested today in the market value of the Bucs’ No. 32 overall pick later this month.
Could Tampa Bay get what the Eagles received three years ago?
In 2018, the Eagles moved their No. 32 overall pick to Baltimore, and their fourth-round selection (No. 132), in exchange for a second-round pick (No. 52), a fourth-round pick (No. 125), and a second-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Yeah, the Ravens grabbed Lamar Jackson, but that’s not the point. The Eagles added two picks. An extra 2022 second-round pick will not help the Bucs win a Super Bowl this season, but it would feel damn good next year.
For more perspective, in 2017, the Belicheats traded out of their No. 32 pick in a blockbuster deal with New Orleans. That pick was sent along with a third-rounder to the Saints for receiver Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round pick.
In 2016, Seattle made a deal with the Broncos for their No. 32 overall pick. Seattle traded down from No. 26 and scored No. 32 and Denver’s third-rounder (no. 94). Would the Bucs dare trade up like that in three weeks to get ”their guy?”
Joe doubts it, but all bets are off if Jason Licht and Bruce Arians feel a player can help them immediately.
Joe sort of hopes the Bucs trade down. It’s hard to go wrong stocking up on draft picks.
April 8th, 2021 at 1:22 pm
I like the first scenario. Although I would hope it’s higher in the 2nd round. Accumularing quality depth would be a good thing right now.
April 8th, 2021 at 1:30 pm
those guys didn’t get much on those trades. I’d stand pat for that. Now, if we can dump OJ or someone else and get a better deal then do it.
April 8th, 2021 at 1:56 pm
If Mac Jones falls the Bucs could be in an enviable situation. I’d trade for 2x2s.
April 8th, 2021 at 1:58 pm
1st round picks get 5th year options, so the difference between 32 and 33 is more than meets the eye. This team is going to be in salary cap hell in a few years (hopefully with trophies), so I would hold on to the pick and the cheap extra year.
April 8th, 2021 at 2:20 pm
I also hope the Bucs trade down.
April 8th, 2021 at 2:29 pm
I so know one thing…..every single draft pick will be a better player because of Tom Brady….
I like trading down….except this year, I think we need better players….not more.
April 8th, 2021 at 2:33 pm
Every year there are Bucs fans that say trade down. If the Bucs traded down last year they wouldn’t have Tristan Wirfs.
April 8th, 2021 at 2:57 pm
trading down at #32 makes little sense. Bucs only have a few rosters spots available for this year so no point in accumulating additional picks when most players wont be making the team. And trading any of the first 3 draft pick slots for next years picks does little to help upgrade the depth on this years team. Either trade up or just stay put!
April 8th, 2021 at 2:57 pm
Trading out for future picks would also reduce this years cap needs to sign draft picks. Not sure how much 32nd picks count against the cap
April 8th, 2021 at 3:13 pm
After pick 31 if your guy is there take him. If not trade down. Seems simple to me.
April 8th, 2021 at 3:35 pm
Jason and Theodore have it correct. Stock up on future picks (for next year) but don’t lose a first rounder simply because the 5th yr option. I would trade the 32nd for no less than a first and 3rd in next year draft.
April 8th, 2021 at 3:49 pm
OK, I’m a bit of a draft nerd. A tremendous understatement, I know. Based on value chart values etc, that 32nd pick really doesn’t generate much in the way of picks. Not useful ones anyway. No one is going pay big for that slot, unless they have a guy they just dying for but are afraid someone will snap that guy up in round 2 before them. Logic says those guys are way back in Round 2. In other words what they’ll offer in addition to their very lat 2nd rounder won’t be worth much. The Bucs have “a guy” there that they will take. Likely several. Unless someone does something dumb (Hey! Houston is still a team, right? ) we stay put.
April 8th, 2021 at 4:09 pm
Bradinator: There are 3 teams with less draft capital (value of picks): Seattle, LA Rams, and Houston. Yes, a 4-12 team that probably won’t improve much in the draft this year. Crazy.
April 8th, 2021 at 4:10 pm
*Less draft capital than the Bucs
April 8th, 2021 at 5:06 pm
I’m more for trading up if the guy is at 26. Not a QB please but if you get a plug-and-play starter in this defense. Go for it.
April 8th, 2021 at 5:44 pm
I could see the Bucs standing pat and having a valued player fall into their lap. Maybe trading up in the 2nd Round if their intel tells them that Landon Dickerson and/or Quinn Meinerz would be drafted before the 64th pick. One of them could be the eventual replacement for Ryan Jensen at Center, and fill the extra blocker “TE” role that Joe Haeg had last year.
April 8th, 2021 at 5:44 pm
That 5th year option can be huge. Imagine how much they’d have to pay Vita without that 5th year option. He’s going to get something like $6-7m I think, but without that 5th year option he’d likely be around $15m – and it’s in the window with Brady, when you need all the extra cap room you can get.
Also it’s the end of the 1st round, so the amount owed is less than what we’d normally be paying. It’s not the reason you keep the pick if you have a good offer and the value isn’t there for who you want, but it’s not something to dismiss.
For example, if the Bucs have a development QB they want, that’s a perfect spot – their 5th year might see them only making like $10m for a starter when average salaries might be $35m by then.
Same at any position, if you hit on the pick, then you’re saving a ton of money. Well, everywhere except for RB, which is why you don’t take a first round RB anymore. But lets say Godwin was a 1st rounder, instead of his $16m franchise tag, he’d be probably closer to around $6m.
If the Bucs suck at the time, then it won’t matter, but lets say they do this NFL’s greats QB retirement plan and lets say they follow-up Brady with Rodgers, well, again, that 5th year option helps you out if the guy you pick is any good.
April 8th, 2021 at 6:25 pm
If your guy is t there at 32 you do that trade. Two picks in the 40-50 range is better than 1 pick at 32. But if a guy you had 15-20 on your board falls to you you have to stay put and get that guy. But I really don’t like it for the win now mode we are in this year. Pick best available of these top three to me. Wr if you don’t have plans of locking up Godwin. De because we are thin there. And Rb we only have Vaughn under contract for next year. And it is a position that gets beat up. Three good backs is huge in a 17 game season when your team has real goals of playing 20-21 games
April 8th, 2021 at 6:48 pm
I agree with Rod Munch. When Brady retires get Rodgers.
April 8th, 2021 at 8:25 pm
Water boy is right. Take the best guy available especially if it’s Harris or Etienne!
April 8th, 2021 at 8:56 pm
The Bucs are in the cat birds seat. They don’t have many active roster spots available. So the can either package all of their later round picks and get 2-3 quality players ( trade up) or trade back and get picks for next year . Personally I would try to trade back into the early second round ( assuming they find a trade partner) and get the bpa. Al/Nc rb or top ol/ dl available.
April 8th, 2021 at 10:06 pm
not much best offense brady 43 beest player defefense vita vea still young dominated chiefs at least 2 guys blocking vea shortest point to qb dl build dl build around our youthful strengths vea best defensive mvp
April 8th, 2021 at 10:28 pm
build around vea
April 8th, 2021 at 11:06 pm
The bucs should take oweh a defensive end from penn st and get him playing early and often learning the position from the veterans on the team.
April 8th, 2021 at 11:07 pm
Everything depends on who’s there at #32…If the FO’s targeted guy is still on the board…You take him.
If there’s a handful of guys you like at that spot equally, maybe roll the dice & try to collect more picks.
With the # of QB’s & WR’s expected to come off the board in Rd1…Some really good FB players @ other positions will slide down 5-7 slots below where they should go.
April 9th, 2021 at 8:25 am
One added bonus of trading down is it makes signing anyone we draft quite a bit cheaper to sign.
April 9th, 2021 at 12:07 pm
we need corner depth/improvement
the corners were not good enough most of the year–that needs to be addressed
April 9th, 2021 at 4:12 pm
We need to get Travis ,or Najee we need to get someone to help Jones tote the Rock in the future!!
April 10th, 2021 at 11:27 am
You have all your starters back their is no reason not to trade down for extra picks.