When Stat Geeks Fail
February 17th, 2021
Long memory.
NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund is one of the few stat geeks Joe can tolerate, for obvious reasons.
Joe is not anti-stats, far from it. But when you base everything that is supposed to happen on a football field on numbers from your computer software, well, Joe has an issue with that.
Enter Frelund. Way too often, Frelund will qualify her analysis with “my models show… ” or “the numbers tell me that… ” It is to the point that Joe swears she doesn’t watch games or even tape, only follows games using alerts from her NFL app account.
Joe would love to hear Frelund say someday something along the lines of “Cam Jordan has an excellent first step but if you watch the technique of Tristan Wirfs and how he uses his hands, this is why Jordan struggles playing the Bucs.”
Nope. Frelund would say instead, “The numbers show that Cam Jordan against the Bucs… ” Well, hell, anyone can read numbers off a screen.
Joe was shocked the way the Bucs secondary played down the stretch in 2019; But Frelund this summer ranked them as having the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. That’s right, No. 32.
Well, it seems the Bucs were more than shocked. They were damn p!ssed off about it. Joe heard Bucs defensive backs make reference in passing to Frelund’s diss a time or two during the season, but it still bothers these guys, even after winning a Super Bowl.
Bucs safety Mike Edwards hopped on “The Rap with Patrick Meagher” heard exclusively on SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio and he cited Frelund’s ranking as major motivation.
“I felt like we were more confident out there,” Edwards said of the win over the Chiefs. “We had more chemistry [this season]. We are kind of young back there.
“There were a lot of people that counted us out. People were telling us we weren’t that good last year. We were ranked the last DB group in the league. We took that to the chin we played with a chip on our shoulder the whole season. We tried to show people how good we were and how good we could be.”
Frelund may not have been aware when she hit “print” on that program last summer, but damn if she didn’t change NFL history.
With that simple click of the mouse (without watching film?), Frelund fueled and motivated a secondary to shut down Drew Brees, contain Aaron Rodgers, and throttle Pat Mahomes in three consecutive games in the postseason to win the Super Bowl.
Cynthia, Joe would like to buy you a drink!
February 17th, 2021 at 2:21 pm
I’d be hesitant to bring in someone like Sherman and disrupt the force these guys have with them 🙂
Add too it, but don’t bring in someone that is not needed. draft a DB or depth.
DL and DE they need to get younger at though, even though I think Gholston is coming into his prime.
Props to these guys. They played lights out!
February 17th, 2021 at 2:32 pm
Don’t think Sherman would “disrupt.” Everywhere he has been the team has had strong secondary play.
Simply put, they don’t need Sherman if they can beat Brees, Rodgers and Mahomes in three straight games.
February 17th, 2021 at 2:41 pm
Has she made any statement about this?
It is amazing to see how many talking heads counted this team out all season. We were picked to lose 3 striaght playoff games and won them all. The media hasnt been that wrong since they predicted a hillary clinton presidency.
February 17th, 2021 at 2:43 pm
Sherman is definitely on the decline. He could be a good pro to help mentor these guys like McCoy was this year for the RBs. I don’t think he would come for super cheap to be a glorified teacher / backup however.
February 17th, 2021 at 3:05 pm
So Joe, money isn’t as good of a motivator as a stat-hag calling you the worst in the league?
That doesn’t seem to add up.
February 17th, 2021 at 3:08 pm
Everyone I’ve seen who dissed the 2019 buccaneer secondary only looked at the season totals, not the first half versus the second half
February 17th, 2021 at 3:17 pm
To be fair our secondary – currently the world champion secondary – has had some horrific games in the last couple of years
February 17th, 2021 at 3:24 pm
What do you expect Joe. When they start letting women comment on football.
Now she is kinda hot. Although I’m surprised she hasn’t had her nose job yet.
Cynthia is you’re listening , a little plastic surgery and you will be on TV even is you don’t watch the games and just look at the TV! Lol !!!!!!!
February 17th, 2021 at 3:30 pm
Kay Adams knows football.
February 17th, 2021 at 3:32 pm
Joe..I don’t know if you would like her when she gets a “snoot full”. After all, she does have a big snoot.
February 17th, 2021 at 3:34 pm
And Cynthia…you don’t have to be a statistician to recognize that. I usually like number crunchers…except when they are that wrong about our DB’s.
February 17th, 2021 at 3:46 pm
I think you can take a list of: Cynthia Frelund and her last place prediction; Tyreke Hill’s pc to get some help (a back flip and a peace sign), Steve Smith and the Bucs getting blown out of the playoffs, Brady is too old, Fournette is washed up and everyone asking what is this team’s identity – I believe BA answered that
@SC Bucs fan, even their all pro secondary, got burned by JW and the Bucs last year – every teams secondary takes an L at times, besides teams could not run on the Bucs, so what do you do, go after a young secondary
Sherman “you mad bro” is not coming to the east coast, he is a west coast guy all day
February 17th, 2021 at 4:58 pm
Frelind’s models rely on historical stats to generate probabilities for future results. History is important obviously, but the method allows very little for improvement beyond a conservative set of norms. Especially with a very young position group. If she started where her current method ends and plugged in some observational / intelligent subjective inputs, she’d perhaps be onto something.
She’s still way better looking than most of the Yakkers.
February 17th, 2021 at 5:02 pm
Haha Joe I’m sure you’d like to buy her a drink for more than one reason…
February 17th, 2021 at 5:14 pm
“Joe was shocked the way the Bucs secondary played down the stretch in 2019; But Frelund this summer ranked them as having the worst cornerbacks in the NFL. That’s right, No. 32.”
Uhhh, I don’t think that Cynthia was the only one dissing the Bucs’ Secondary this season, including right before the playoffs began. Seems like I remember reading a comment or two from more than one JBFers (including the owners) remarking on how terrible our Secondary was. And Joes, at various points this season I’ve been one of them because, quite frankly, our defense was playing very very soft at times. Matter of fact, seems like I even remember BA bad-mouthing them a time or two. Or three.
Todd Bowles & his assistant coaches get all the credit IMO. There’s no doubt in my mind that Bowles was the driving force in selecting SMB, Dean & Edwards in 2019. He probably had a major influence also in selecting Winfield this past year. To his credit, Bowles hung in there with these guys & from everything I’ve read here & elsewhere put in tons of extra hours working with each of them individually AND as a position group. Without Todd Bowles, there’s no Super Bowl win, largely because we wouldn’t have ever gotten there. He’s an awesome DC, and I really hope we can keep him in the fold.
February 17th, 2021 at 5:30 pm
I bet you would rather buy her 10 drinks Joe
February 17th, 2021 at 5:32 pm
Not fair to say women shouldn’t talk about football, I’ve played, coaches did fantasy for over 14 years and my friends daughter can talk circles around me. I will ask has Frelund ever been right with her stats? She seems like her spread is always 5 points and other than Washington game the Bucs was an after thought to her. She is one of the reason yoga pants were invented.
February 17th, 2021 at 6:59 pm
The only reason Cynthia was hired at the network is for “obvious reasons”, otherwise she has no clue about football and reads the screen that others prep.
February 17th, 2021 at 7:26 pm
Might Patrick Peterson sign a team friendly deal to chase a ring? I hear he wasn’t that great in 2020, but might have a rebound year. He was with Arians and Bowles in Arizona. I think Sherman will sign with the Raiders.
February 17th, 2021 at 7:32 pm
I don’t like her
February 17th, 2021 at 7:33 pm
LoL !!! You got me with that one Joe !!!
Agree 100% , I’ll listen to KA all day (and night )!
February 17th, 2021 at 8:15 pm
Not to sound like I’m defending her, but, numbers aside, we all saw how bad they played after the first GB game through the Washington game. I mean, WHO saw it coming?? They were great….. Go Bucs!!
February 17th, 2021 at 10:11 pm
February 17th, 2021 at 3:30 pm
What do you expect Joe. When they start letting women comment on football.
What? Lol! 60 yr old woman here
Anyway our secondary played lights out and that helped our front four as much as their strong play helped our secondary. Regardless, we should draft corner in the draft as it is an injury prone position.
February 17th, 2021 at 11:20 pm
She’s cute, smart, and inadvertently helped my win a superbowl?!? I like her even more now. 😋
February 18th, 2021 at 12:27 am
JOE
“Cynthia, Joe would like to buy you a drink!”
I see what you’re doing here 😂
February 18th, 2021 at 4:29 am
To be fair, there were points this year when the bucs secondary looked like it was fortunate to be ranked as high as 32!
February 18th, 2021 at 4:49 am
yeah now she’s sliding into SMB’s dm like “yo whud up boss” 🙂
February 18th, 2021 at 4:54 am
let’s get it straight here on the buc boards…
we like kay adams…
cynthia fraudlund, not so much 🙂
February 18th, 2021 at 6:39 am
She looks like Calibos (from Clash of the Titans 1981), with a good bod of course. Everybody talked sh!t about this secondary all season, right up to the Divisional game vs the Saints. Hopefully they carry this swagger into next season and beyond.
February 18th, 2021 at 8:44 am
Mina Kimes is smarter than the stat geeks (summa cum laude at Yale), plenty cute, and very astute in her judgements; can’t get enough of her. She had a whole podcast before the SB with Geoff Schwartz (Mitchell’s brother), pretty much predicting the O-line debacle determining the outcome.
February 18th, 2021 at 9:55 am
Mike Edwards. Hope on profootballreference and check his coverage numbers. Look at his limited amount of play and all the plays he still managed to make.
Honestly, Edwards is probably our best FS… Whitehead is probably our best SS. And Winfield is our best overall safety. I’m sure Winfield will definitely be a starter at one position, and even though Whitehead was huge in a couple postseason games, I can see Edwards supplanting Winfield at FS and Winfield moving to SS to get Winfield even closer to the LOS. Edwards ALWAYS shows up in coverage, how do we keep him off the field? Competition is a healthy thing. Same thing at CB. Dean and SMB fighting over the starting CN spot. This is the best young secondary in the league… and it isn’t even close.
February 18th, 2021 at 12:11 pm
This whole piece was made up for the last line. Does Cynthia has a model or is Cynthia a model? Joe sure knows the truth cause he watches tape