Offense All Out Of Whack
December 12th, 2020
Second down is the issue.
Man, leave it to a gambler to spell out in detail what is wrong with the Bucs’ offense.
Joe is a big fan of Warren Sharp. He’s a noted gambler turned stathead who studies the numbers because numbers help him win money. That’s all there is to it.
Now Joe understands Bucs fans like to holler how much Arians/Leftwich/Brady like to call run plays on first down. Four games into the season, Joe did a play-by-play breakdown research project and found it was roughly 50/50 run/pass plays on first down. So Joe never wrote a story about it.
Sharp, like so many Bucs fans, harps on how predictable the Tampa Bay offense is. And it is not necessarily the Bucs running on first downs. It’s what they do on second down.
Sharp’s biggest issue with the Bucs running on first down is their lack of production from running the ball on first down, not the play selection. This, Sharp noted, almost always puts the Bucs into second-and-long situations. Not good.
But it is on second downs where the Bucs are painfully predictable, per Sharp, who noted the Bucs either run on second down or they throw deep. It’s either one or the other.
And it is no surprise that defenses know this.
It gets better.
Sharp stated the Bucs throw deep more often on second downs than any team in the league. And since Week 7, the Bucs increased that lead by averaging over 10 yards a throw. This, Sharp points out, is not in park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking Bucs quarterback Tom Brady’s wheelhouse.
For you conspiracy theorists, what has happened to the Bucs since Week 7? It was after Week 7 when the Bucs signed Antonio Brown. Coincidence?
Sharp’s take below is a very detailed NBC Sports video breakdown of the Bucs. It’s dynamite information and a good example of why Joe respects Sharp and his eye for telling numbers.
FIX EARLY DOWNS:
Bucs 1st downs are either bad runs (3.9 YPC, #9 worst) or deep shots (9.5 air yards, #3 most)
so they avg 8.3 yards go on 2nd down (#2 most) & go 74% pass on 2nd downs (by FAR the NFL’s highest pass rate) and face far too many 3rd downs
but hope may be near ⬇️ https://t.co/FFEKhPQy6c
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 12, 2020
December 12th, 2020 at 12:43 am
Holy stats Batman!
Its really hard to hear Sharp over that mustache..
And what’s with the creepy American Psycho basement he’s operating out of?
Anywho…
Block, run, pass, catch, tackle. Do those things to our ability we win.
Go Bucs!
In BA I Trust!
December 12th, 2020 at 12:54 am
-6.5? Lost three out of last four with some dumbass coaching. Coming off the bye at home and everyone under the gun to make it to the playoffs. Bucs don’t get started early and that’s when things begin. I’d say -5.0.
December 12th, 2020 at 3:35 am
That was a good breakdown by Sharp; he makes some excellent points. Not sure about his picking the Bucs though. Looks like he’s basing it on his belief that “Hopefully Bruce Arians has turned the corner”.
I think that BA is a dinosaur who’s vastly overrated as an offensive mind. He’s taken a star-studded roster & neutered it for all practical purposes. Like this article’s title says, this offense is all out of whack. THAT’s on coaching.
But it’s not JUST on coaching; it’s also on our QB. Bucs wouldn’t be so discombobulated on offense if Tom Brady didn’t buy into this inefficient system. Would hope that after 20 years of unprecedented success, Brady knows what works & what doesn’t work for him. Newsflash: stick with what got you the GOAT designation & forget trying to reinvent yourself.
December 12th, 2020 at 6:31 am
The Bucs offense needs to be more patient, disciplined & smarter…..
Running on 1st down is OK….50%……..but we should use short passes on 2nd down or run again….knock off the deep passes…..deep play action passes on 1st down would work great even if we haven’t established the run….teams expect us to run on 1st down…
The key to faster starts is using the safe/short passes…..keep drives going.
Relax Tom, early in games.
AB is productive as a number 3 receiver……this has nothing to do with AB.
December 12th, 2020 at 7:27 am
HEY EVERYBODY, including Wyatt Erp. The GOAT doesn’t play DEFENSE. Todd B. just stands there totally confused. I’m certainly not saying I support Mr MaGoo. I honestly can’t decide which coach is worse. Wait a minute, yes I can. T. Bowles
December 12th, 2020 at 7:35 am
almost every commentator on the planet says that Brady recognizes defenses faster that in QB in the league. They also say “they might fool him once but not twice” So, Humpty Dumpty, get out of the way and let the Goat be the Goat. When KC scored their 1st TD to Hill, I was screaming “how in the Hell do you not double team a receiver that is faster than the speed of light” But confuscist waited till they were behind 17-0
December 12th, 2020 at 7:49 am
Very insightful analysis. Well worth the watch.
December 12th, 2020 at 8:28 am
Ole stale biscuit is the issue!!!!!!!!!!! And remember sheep, when the moment is the biggest!!!!!! Ole stale biscuit will crumble like always!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 12th, 2020 at 8:48 am
The only reason its about a 50/50 split is because in the second half of games they are behind and start passing on forst downs to catch up and it levels out the stats.
Now go back and see what percentage of 1st down plays are runs up the gut in the first half or when the game is still close. As you’ve also covered in recent articles the lack.of.play action passing is beyond mund numbing.
Leftwich is a dumpster.fire who cannot even.put his words together during and.interview let alone call plays on an nfl level.
Let Brady call HIS plays, not just YOUR plays and start.mixing in play action on first downs and PUT SCOTTY MILLER BACK IN THE GAME PLANS, A.B SHOULD BE DEPTH LIKE FOURNETTE!!!
December 12th, 2020 at 9:06 am
Need more Scotty less Suckwich.
December 12th, 2020 at 11:06 am
we have the players to do more then an OK. BUT we have the WORST coaching staff you possibly can put together on NFL right now. This is the problem.
Coaching in this team had won ZERO game for us, ZERO.
They are between BAD decisions, and NO decisions. That’s it
BA = Lovie S 2.0
December 12th, 2020 at 11:42 am
Agree. We need a new head coach and a new OC. Wasting all the talent on this roster until that happens. Hope the Glazers make a change in the off season.
December 12th, 2020 at 11:57 am
i don’t know why anyone would think that the offense would change because of new information. there is no evidence that arians/leftwich can adapt or learn anything new. their philosophy is we are who we are; we do what we do.
a great breakdown statistically describing the predictability and flow of a bucs game. proof of what most fans have been saying.
if the oc can say “i don’t know why i don’t call more play action plays” where is the accountability and awareness. ba you’re the hc how can you not hold your oc accountable FOR THAT ATTITUDE of admitted ignorance about his own GAMEPLAN and play choices?
the coaches are out of their depth and wasting talent.
no matter the outcome of the season i’d expect a plan to improve coaching staff
December 12th, 2020 at 11:58 am
Are we as good as New Orleans. Not yet that’s for sure. How about KC…not yet but it felt a lot closer than the Saints.
So will it disappoint us to win ten make the playoffs but not the SB? Right now if I had to bet that’s where my money goes. We SHOULD win three of the last four but it’s the NFL and we’re Buc fans so we don’t take it for granted.
It’s FAR too soon to evaluate the season yet. We are poised to still have a GREAT season…we could easily have a good season…and yeah we could choke away our golden opportunity.
December 12th, 2020 at 12:17 pm
Eric Bienemy
Robert Saleh
I’d be happy with either
December 12th, 2020 at 1:42 pm
No offense, but file this all under:
DUH.
Some of us have been trying to tell you this all season. It’s the most predictable offense I’ve ever seen us run. ZERO creativity. ZERO misdirection. And that’s a travesty given the amount of talent we have.
AriansLeftwichBrady needs to pull their collective heads out of their @ss if they want to do anything in the post season. Or are they all jut here to collect a check in nice weather?
December 12th, 2020 at 1:54 pm
You had a breakdown of the second down splits like Sharp? Including the increase in deep passes on second down (since Antonio Brown came on board)?
December 12th, 2020 at 6:03 pm
I had no idea we ran up the middle on 1st downs for no yards and we’re forced to pass on 2nd. Therefore abandoning the run too early. Geez it’s like these guys haven’t been watching the games.
December 12th, 2020 at 8:43 pm
Defense rules wrote,
“I think that BA is a dinosaur who’s vastly overrated as an offensive mind. He’s taken a star-studded roster & neutered it for all practical purposes. Like this article’s title says, this offense is all out of whack. THAT’s on coaching”.
Maybe the best and most concise appraisal of the teams current situation I’ve seen to date. Well done!
Personally, I find it fascinating how a book title has influenced the perceptions of the fans and media and elevated a Coach, who was never considered a wunderkind or guru, into the elite class of coaches. There’s no denying that a book or specifically the books title has shifted perceptions.
Unfortunately, the facts do not and have never supported this QB whisperer label. If we are able to judge this offense without prejudice of the past and the self created legend of the prowess of the head coach, rather strictly focusing on the collection of talent that this team has accumulated and how well the team has performed , I believe we would will agree with defense rules.