ESPN Data: 9-7 Should “Lock Them In” To Playoffs
December 7th, 2020
The surviving NFC playoff hopefuls have all played 12 games and the BSPN computer nerds have spit out interesting data that might soothe a few Bucs fans.
Per a math-driven report this morning by longtime numbers-loving writer Bill Barnwell, the Bucs are virtually assured of a playoff berth with just two more victories — or for a the math-challenged, a 9-7 record.
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 90%
For all the anguish about what’s going wrong in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are still in good shape. No, they’re not going to catch the Saints for the NFC South title or the top seed in the conference. At the same time, a Buccaneers team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007 is almost a sure thing to make it this season. Winning two of their final four games would basically lock them in, and while there aren’t any total walkovers left on the calendar, they still have a game against the Lions and a home-and-home against the Falcons.
I’m still optimistic about the Bucs. For one, they have only one loss against a team that isn’t currently in first place, with that coming against the Bears in Week 5. … … [The Bucs have] faced the league’s third-toughest schedule. The Bucs have the fifth-easiest schedule in football the rest of the way, and if they sweep their final four games, they would be prohibitive favorites to finish with the fifth seed and play the NFC East winner in the wild-card round.
Their 1-3 stretch has also been driven by an unlikely run of giveaways. They turned the ball over just eight times during their 6-2 start, but they’ve now given the ball away eight times over their past four games. Given Tom Brady’s history, I don’t see much of a reason for that to continue. … …
Well, Joe’s not about to do cartwheels down Dale Mabry Highway for the Bucs starting 7-3 and then limping into the playoffs at 9-7, if that’s how it goes down.
Sure, the playoff game would feel nice, but a 9-7 mark this season would be rather embarrassing and uninspiring, considering the 7-5 Bucs don’t have a team with a winning record remaining on their schedule.
December 7th, 2020 at 10:38 am
If you take out both Saints games, we have lost 3 games by a total of 7 points, 2 of those games were to division leaders, and the other we committed 13 penalties.
December 7th, 2020 at 10:39 am
The upcoming Vikings game is so important. Win that and they can realistically go 1–2 in their last 3 and still make it. Lose on Sunday and you’ll start getting into needing help from others territory.
December 7th, 2020 at 10:41 am
We really need 10.
My pre-season prediction.
December 7th, 2020 at 10:42 am
11-5…
GO BUCS!!!!
December 7th, 2020 at 10:51 am
10-6. One bummer of a loss but not against the Vikes.
December 7th, 2020 at 10:56 am
Exactly! 9 wins will not generate cartwheels.
This team couldn’t be better positioned. New Orleans has been the class of the division, in fact perhaps the entire NFC from week one. We’re simply not as good….yet.
Two weeks off and a chance to go against a combined 19-29 record. The Vikings are at .500..the Falcons and the Lions aren’t even close. There are NO excuses for NOT RUNNING THE TABLE and heading into the playoffs at a respectable 11-5 and on a four game win streak and playing well…on a roll.
Lattimore looked human yesterday and ME has baited him into some PI’s…and Lattimore has baited ME. Put those two aside…one more great DB to cover who…CG14 or AB? If we incorporate AB into the offense and stop going bombs away every series…just move the chains…the Bucs have just as much of a shot as any team.
It’s all right there for the taking! SERIOUSLY! It’s the Buc’s if they want it.
Talk about a culture check…if we don’t finish on a four game win streak…SAD…
If we win 3 and advance in the playoffs..some salve for our wounds.
Win two and back into the playoffs and we’d have to reach the SB to save the season.
December 7th, 2020 at 11:21 am
Once again.
I’m fine with one and done.
December 7th, 2020 at 11:53 am
Just make the playoffs. You can doooo it!
December 7th, 2020 at 12:05 pm
I said that a couple days ago, old news.
December 7th, 2020 at 12:08 pm
I never expected more than making the playoffs…….and if we can’t advance…so be it…
But, we can’t and shouldn’t worry about other teams…….we need to win our games….period….and win convincingly…
I rarely have a good feeling going into a game….but I do vs Vikings….they have been fortunate to squeak by some very mediocre teams while we were within striking distance of a couple of very good teams.
December 7th, 2020 at 12:16 pm
Backing into the playoffs with a 9-7 record doesn’t cut it IMO, because that would mean we only won 3 of our last 8 games in the regular season. That’s no way to motor through the 2nd half of the season. 10-6 is quite a bit better, meaning that we at least broke even in the 2nd half AND would be ending on a high (winning 3 of our last 4 games). That’s perfectly doable with this team against the Vikings, Lions & Falcons, especially with 2 home games at RayJay AND the other 2 games indoors (in December no less).
Personally I prefer 813bucboi’s optimism: Run the table and go 11-5 entering the playoffs, ending the season with 4 straight wins. That’d surely mean that our coaching staff had solved most of our ‘issues’ on offense & defense, and we’d be going into the playoffs as a HOT team. NO EXCUSES … time to kick ass & take names.
December 7th, 2020 at 1:21 pm
There is no reason why the Bucs can’t finish with 11-5. ME13 and CG14 are as heathy with this rest as they were at the start of the goofy season. Ali Marpet is back. The defense is maturing. I will be watching the secondary esp. Jordan Whitehead. He has been having a good year. It’s just all the boys who grab pics get more attention. The only 2 obstacles are the 2 Methuselahs and that better be fixed! Go Mighty Bucs Sunday!
December 7th, 2020 at 1:46 pm
This appears to be our only shot at the playoffs next year we won’t have the luxury of keeping all of our soon to be high priced players ie. Godwin (18-22 mil), Barrett (12-18 mil) and David (10-14 mil) just to name a few. We should go 10-6 or 9-7 both of which gets you n the playoffs. We realisticy looking at a 6th or 7th seed. Which would mean the Packers or Saints. We stomped the Pack, I know Joe wants to play the Saints but why rub salt in the wound lets go out and stomp the Pack again Rodgers is scared as hell of Suh.
December 7th, 2020 at 2:18 pm
Does anyone believe the Glazers signed TB12 to go 9-7 ??
December 7th, 2020 at 2:25 pm
Win out the rest of the games!
KISS
Playtime is over!
December 7th, 2020 at 2:35 pm
catcard202 probably not! But as long TB12 jersey sales are making them money thats all they care about. Malcom seemed to be the only one that cared about winning the superbowl.
December 7th, 2020 at 2:47 pm
DR
Agreed. We should have been improving in the second half. Week 9’s arrival sure changed the feeling around here.
December 7th, 2020 at 2:48 pm
If we have to go up against the G men… we will be one and done. We never play well against them. January in NY won’t help either…
December 7th, 2020 at 3:51 pm
I simply can not understand how anyone could be satisfied with limping into the playoffs and immediately losing in the first round.
December 7th, 2020 at 5:08 pm
Jmark,
The Giants are a better team than a lot of people give them credit. The Giants coaches simply out coached us but the problem was their execution. Even then it came down to the last play with the bucs getting the win on a play they could have easily lost.
I agree with you, don’t want to see them in Jan in New Jersey.
December 7th, 2020 at 5:36 pm
unbelievable Says:
“I simply can not understand how anyone could be satisfied with limping into the playoffs and immediately losing in the first round/”
Cause when you’ve sucked for a decade or so, getting to playoffs does it for you.
I never expected a SB did you?
December 7th, 2020 at 7:42 pm
I’m fairly sure the Hackensack Giants are the only team to have a winning record against Brady. And they improve every week. Just hope 5hey’re not too deep in Brady’s head.
Thinking out loud here: Arians has always favored gunslingers. Anyone else think he’s been unhappy since Brady was thrust upon him and, maybe he’s just collecting the paycheck?
December 7th, 2020 at 10:33 pm
There is no guarantee this team can go 2-2 with the remaining schedule.
My gut says history may repeat itself, this time Monte is not around to take the blame.