The Answer Is Simple
November 8th, 2020
“This is me.”
Joe really likes stats guy/gambler/football handicapper Warren Sharp. But on this one, Sharp swung and missed.
The Bucs, through eight games have the eighth-highest run rate on first downs at 58 percent. Looking at last year’s stats, Sharp noticed that with Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, the Bucs threw the ball more.
Sharp wanted to know why. Joe is disappointed in Sharp. Surely he knows why.
Last year, the Bucs’ top back was Ronald Jones. But Jones had yet to turn the corner and didn’t look anything like a top back and maybe not an NFL backup. Then you had Peyton “Two Yards” Barber, who was about as non-productive of a back as there was in the NFL.
If those two didn’t trip Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians trigger, he had Dare Ogunbowale to turn to.
This year, RoJo has proven to be one of the better running backs in the NFL. And then you have Leonard Fournette. And then Shady McCoy, though he appears to be out of gas.
On top of that you had the NFL’s top passer last season.
Do you really need to be a full-time, professional handicapper and stathead to figure out why Arians is running the ball more last year?
Again, Joe likes Sharp a lot. But man he missed the forest for the trees here.
Why is Bruce Arians taking the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands?
First half first downs:
1st 4 weeks: 51% run
last 4 weeks: 59% runproduction?
3.1 YPC, 43% success, -0.19 EPA/att
with Brady YTD, Arians is 55% run (8th highest rate)
with Jameis, Arians ran less often (52% run)
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) November 7, 2020
November 8th, 2020 at 7:44 am
being down on the scoreboard makes a difference too..
November 8th, 2020 at 7:44 am
Why weed through this little stuff.
The truth on the offense is less mistakes.
That is 90 percent of the key for us this year.
The other 10 percent is window dressing.
November 8th, 2020 at 7:59 am
Honestly, I don’t mind the Bucs rushing, but I do hate the 1st down rushes due to their predictability. The pass when your opponent thinks you’re going to run and run when they think you will pass strategy is my preference.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:02 am
We need to play action on 1st down more often…….defenses will be fooled because that would be unpredictable…..play action short passes work better than runs….
November 8th, 2020 at 8:12 am
I hate the run up the gut on what seems like every 1st down. I don’t mind running on 1st down it’s just that BL has a tendency to run straight up the gut. The fans know it ( yes BL the fans know it ) the defense knows it. Get some creativity in the run game.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:21 am
Difference between playing with a lead or coming from behind. Any dunce should be able to figure this out.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:11 am
Still, the trend is too predictable. Although the Bucs’ running game has improved, it’s not like we have Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook in the backfield. I’d like to see more run-pass options on 1st down.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:49 am
Good grief, Awshbucs! Are you trying to get run?
November 8th, 2020 at 10:49 am
I agree, Shady has been a huge disappointment, but ROJO has been an even bigger surprise!
November 8th, 2020 at 11:03 am
No way Shady McCoy is on this team if Bucs knew Fournette was going to come available for peanuts
November 8th, 2020 at 11:40 am
I’m with m0j0 on this one: just be less predictable. Everyone in the world knows that Todd Bowles defenses are gonna blitz, then blitz some more. What they apparently have trouble figuring out is HOW it’s gonna happen and WHERE it’s gonna come from. Unpredictable? Oh yes.
I’m a big advocate for a BALANCED ATTACK … on the season, not necessarily game-to-game (take what the defense gives you IOW). A BALANCED team IMO should ideally run about 45% of the time and pass on the other 55% of the plays. To reach numbers like that though, your attack has to be unpredictable; keep ’em guessin IOW. Running for the sake of running is too often futile.
Bucs have the talent to do exactly that … BUT we’re not doing it for some reason. Bucs’ offense seems to run both hot AND cold just about every game; 1 qtr we’re on fire, next qtr (or two) we’re ice cold. Then we might catch fire again after we finally make some adjustments. Need more CONSISTENCY.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:42 am
Another added benefit of running the ball more is that it keeps Tom Brady upright more.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:43 am
Geno nailed it. A 3% delta? WGAS… Do your job and we are tough to beat.
In BA I Trust!
November 8th, 2020 at 11:54 am
Running the ball is great and all that, I just want to know why Arians keeps taking the ball out of RoJo’s hands when he is clearly the better, stronger and more decisive runner than Fournette who dances around then runs right into tackles??? It was on the strength of his running style that he had three games in a row of over 100 yards rushing! He gets stronger the more touches he gets. I’m tired of him getting benched because of a dropped pass or fumble when last year Arians put up with 33 turnovers from one player and not benching him even when the game was out of hand early. If he wants our play action to work better give RoJo his touches plain and simple.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:30 pm
I like rushing to give the defense a breather. Three play touchdowns are cool, but the defense doesn’t get their wind back. So if to take it down the field in 8 yard chunks, by the time you score, the defense is ready to get you the ball back! Look at Koetter’s offense with Atlanta, touchdown or 3 and out in less than 5 minutes. The defense can’t stop anyone in the second half.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:30 pm
I don’t mind running the football on 1st down, but I hate the formations we run out of…would like to see more creativity. Plus, I think teams would rather see us run then TB throw…that’s why I like to see TB throw – let him take a peak at the D if its there take it if not check it down…gain 3yrds maybe more…repeat.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:45 pm
RoJo is the best back on this team. BA needs to stop punishing a guy for a fumble if his absence for the remainder of the game makes the team weaker.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:52 pm
Stats are for losers
November 8th, 2020 at 12:59 pm
It’s funny we as fans get very limited views of different run plays and the announcers get more but less than the coaches and yet we come up with the same observations, the Bucs are so predictable on 1st down! We don’t vary too much on our formations or plays we run out of those formations. It’s obvious the Giants scouted the heck out of the 1st 7 games and shut it down as did the Aints did in the 1st game and will probably do today. Why can’t our coaching staff see the same tendencies and switch it up??? Why does it take an entire half for them to make adjustments??? Why is it we have 8 games down and still do the same thing??? We want to beat them we better switch things up!
November 8th, 2020 at 1:52 pm
Yall know gooden well that we were not down in the first half that much. I know yall hate Jamies but you don’t have to lie about it . This is a different playbook on offense and yall know it . I can think of a few games we were winning in the first half coming into the second half with leads are we were down by a touchdown or 3 points and we didn’t run the ball or we didn’t even give it a chance. No body in the media or most of yall in the fan base never talked about the running game until Brady came . Yall were saying that us not having a running game is a excuse for Jamies remember that . And I told yall that every quarterback needs a running game . Now yall say we are running good because of Brady and that have never been the case for no quarterback . The running game opens up the passing . Not the passing game opens up the running game . That had never been the case in football history . That’s why you have play action pass plays and not play action run plays . Go bucs !!!
November 8th, 2020 at 2:19 pm
Not spotting the other team 14 points helps….
November 8th, 2020 at 2:30 pm
Oneilbucs,
You don’t know football history.
The passing game opening up the run game is a feature of the West Coast offense.
It’s also part of the spread offense, the air raid and the 4 verticals offense. All of these systems use the passing game to open the run game.
Run first teams are a thing of the past. There is exceptions like the 49ers but they’re exceptions not the rule.
Play action run play …wrong here too! Play action run …. is an RPO and a delay draw. Passing action to run.
And not one person on JBF ever said the team doesn’t need a running game. Ever! Would it have helped Winston, of course, but he’d still be gone today. His , not anyone else, his …individual play is why he’s not here. The teams record probably would be better by a game or two but it is what it is.
November 8th, 2020 at 2:46 pm
NOBODY is going to EVER take the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands for the remainder of his career.
Any thought that Brady isn’t TOTALLY on board with the play calling is ludicrous.
The loudest voice in the game planning room MAY be BA but Brady is not far behind at this point in his career and this point in this successful season.
Obviously Brady supports the calls and just as obviously it’s worked to a 6-2 record with a very few turnovers. Move the chains…make three point kicks and cash in on the other teams turnovers…and THEN….wait for it…DON’T TURN THE FREAKING BALL OVER. The rest…like running too much on first down is arguing over an afterthought to a 6-2 start for a brand new QB.
November 8th, 2020 at 2:59 pm
D1 you are wrong again bro the west coast offense the 49ers ran had always had a 1,000 yard rushing runningback . And let’s be honest about something Jamies not making it in Tampa Bay is not a knock on him . This franchise has never developed a quarterback so we really don’t have no one to judge him or any other quarterback on with this franchise . Again it can’t be every quarterback that comes to Tampa that’s a organization problem not the quarterback . We have had quarterbacks that can help a team win championships. We had 3 that was capable of doing that and we got rid of them to early . And now you have people in this fan base with a loser mindset who’s asking for Rogers when Brady leaves .
November 8th, 2020 at 3:24 pm
One other big reason, Brady might be the best ever at play action
November 8th, 2020 at 4:32 pm
Raheem Mories is a good coach we should have kept him .
November 8th, 2020 at 8:11 pm
How did Rojo average 4.3 ypc if he sucked so badly? The dude had most of his long runs calls back so a handful of meaningless runs didn’t pad his average. How does one average over league average and not resemble an NFL backup when the other RB could barely get over three yards per carry?