Fourth Quarter Meltdowns
July 18th, 2020
“Tom, you never lose it in the end.”
One noted stats guy who digs deep into data seems to think fourth quarters cost the Bucs a playoff berth last year.
Noted gambler Warren Sharp, who does a lot of research with data to find edges in wagering, seems to believe the Bucs blew four games in the fourth quarter and with just a hair better play and coaching could have finished 11-5.
Writing in his annual, Warren Sharp’s 2020 Football Preview, Sharp blames three losses specifically on fourth-quarter turnovers from Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, and a fourth loss on Bucco Bruce Arians for going full-blown turtle (setting the stage for Jameis to hand over the game like a wedding gift).
The great news for the Buccaneers is these improbable losses are unlikely to be repeated, mostly because the reasons for the losses were primarily fourth-quarter turnovers by Jameis Winston. …
In the Bucs’ Week 17 loss to the Falcons, for the first time, Winston didn’t blow that fourth-quarter lead due to turnovers. That one was just good old fashioned bad play and bad playcalling. Leading by six points entering the fourth quarter, Tampa Bay had two total drives in the fourth quarter, both still with a lead. They gained a grand total of 10 yards combined on both drives. On three first down plays on the two drives, the Bucs called a run each time. On each second down play that followed, the Bucs called a pass. On each drive, they punted the ball. On each Atlanta drive following those punts, the Falcons scored.
In his review of last season, Sharp gave Jameis a whole lot of praise for his production, but slammed him for his picks.
What Joe doesn’t know is, will the lack of turnovers with park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-invading Bucs quarterback Tom Brady make up for the expected decrease in production?
Maybe the Bucs’ braintrust believes the team may play closer games this fall, and will be winnable because the quarterback won’t be handing out Halloween candy just before the kiddos have to head back home for the night.
July 18th, 2020 at 8:13 am
Would you like a proofreader, Joe? I am available for beer.
July 18th, 2020 at 8:41 am
Boy the excuses makers must still be sleep. Give them an hour or two they’re going to make this story about race and and about QBs stats from 20 – 30 years ago. Oh yeah and remind us that those turnovers don’t matter. I can’t wait for some football when the field does the talking.
July 18th, 2020 at 9:33 am
He’s gone. Nice try.
July 18th, 2020 at 9:58 am
“What Joe doesn’t know is, will the lack of turnovers with park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-invading Bucs quarterback Tom Brady make up for the expected decrease in production?”
The unequivocal answer to this question is yes! Fewer turnovers will reduce the opponents ability to score, particularly score easily (ie pick 6s; turning the ball over at your end of the field, etc.). Also, by not turning the ball over, the offensive production will go up (longer possessions = more yards). As I recall, even with the high production last year, most of the wins were close games. I think with an improved D backfield, a run-stopping D line, and a super-high-octane offense, the Buc’s wins this year will be more decisive.
July 18th, 2020 at 10:28 am
America’s quarterback pro bowler ……………………………….
July 18th, 2020 at 10:50 am
There you have it JW nugglers. Jack Wagon Jameis and his 5000 yard arm threw us out of the post season. Not the kicker. Not our secondary. Not our O-line. Thank you Warren Sharp for enlightening all Jack Wagon nut huggers. The book on dream killin’, 30/30 JW is now closed.
Go Brady Bucs!!
July 18th, 2020 at 12:40 pm
>>What Joe doesn’t know is, will the lack of turnovers with park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-invading Bucs quarterback Tom Brady make up for the expected decrease in production?
Yes, It will if stats tell us anything then it will immensely.
July 18th, 2020 at 12:42 pm
MAN this is nice none of the nutt huggers are up yet to give a dissertation of excuses. also acting like a bunch of Incels in the process.
July 18th, 2020 at 1:08 pm
This is why JW is not here any longer. Not just turnovers.
Enter the final two weeks of the season with two home games sitting at .500!!!
Would the team cash in and build for 2020 with a winning streak that provides a 9-7 winning record? This was a chance for reputations to be made. JW led an offense that put up 3….THREE points in the final four quarters of those two home games.
We can all provide legitimate reasons why JW wasn’t able to produce more than 3 points. Some will wish to blame the kicker but he could only contribute 3 points at a time when the offense put him in position. The QB OTOH can control a game…passing…running…
Fair or not…a WINNER would have figured a way to win those final two home games…by whatever means necessary. There are winners and losers and it’s not always the better team or best players.
If we win those last two…if JW put some points on the scoreboard in the 2nd halves JW would still be our starting QB.
July 18th, 2020 at 5:09 pm
Tampabucsbro Again you come with the gay talk . But we just going to act like that Matt Gay didn’t lose the Gaints , Seahawks , Falcons . He missed 4 field goals that could have won the game . But guess what we have a 43 year old quarterback and the season is probably going to be canceled so now we are going to have a 44 year old quarterback good luck with that . Lol lol
July 18th, 2020 at 10:02 pm
Warren Sharp is a smart dude. I was going to say that he was “sharp”, but I make an a$$ out of myself enough here. 😛
July 19th, 2020 at 6:21 am
OneIl – thanks for wishing us luck. I too am excited about having Brady vs JW.
I’m curious how things are going on your JWFan Site? What’s the latest on your third stringer messiah? Does Payton realize he signed a QB for eating W’s before games, but actually poops losses on the field and gets coaches fired?
In BA I Trust!
July 19th, 2020 at 8:00 am
“Decrease in production”?! You mean stats.
If Winston was throwing for 3,000 yards and taking us to the playoffs consistently NOBODY would give a rat’s patooty about the passing yards!
Why?
Stats are absolutely MEANINGLESS without the wins.
Not winning IS not producing and not the other way around. It’s about winning.
Also, all Buc fans know that it’s not just ONE guy. It sure would’ve helped if the defense made a stop or two, the kicker make his kicks, and coaches be smarter about the gameplan.
That said, it is a verifiable, statistical FACT that TOs are a sure-fire way to lose games. Don’t try to hide behind other excuses. They’re ALL contributors.
July 19th, 2020 at 8:12 am
So a scrub gets the nickname “America’s Quarterback” for absolutely no reason (Joe gave many reasons upon giving Jameis the nickname 5 1/2 months before he was drafted by the Bucs. –Joe) and still gets brought up all the time, but the goat gets called “home-invader” man, one or both of you is nuts
July 20th, 2020 at 3:03 pm
You know the part that is often overlooked…the Falcons scored on their next 2 possesions. You gotta get stops too, you know. For those not on Madden…Football is a Team Game. Offense, Defense, Special Teams, Coaches. You can (depending on where you sit) point the finger at any one of those groups to explain why you’re the smartest person on the planet, your horse rides higher, or your bias against a singular player (or coach) is beyond reproach. But football remains a team game.
Go Bucs!