Subtraction By Subtraction
April 29th, 2020
Spreadsheeter wants cut.
Ol’ Billy Barnwell is at it again, once more proving numbers don’t always equate to play on the field.
Sort of like the way so many people outside the Tampa Bay area were sure of themselves the Bucs were going to cut Vincent Jackson because he had a high salary, so too some people — just looking at a list of salaries think the Bucs will launch Cam Brate this summer.
Folically-challenged Barnwell is one of those. Barnwell looks at one player on each NFL team’s roster and predicts who won’t be there come late-July.
Barnwell types Bucs fans should wave goodbye to Brate.
In my column covering the Rob Gronkowski trade, I wrote about why I thought it made more sense for the Bucs to move on from the more-expensive Brate as opposed to former first-round pick O.J. Howard. Tampa general manager Jason Licht has since gone on to say he wasn’t looking to deal Howard, and while that could be a negotiating ploy, the draft came and went without a Howard deal.
The Bucs could still keep all three tight ends, but as veterans who might help their defense come free, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa clears out cap space with a Brate trade.
Here is the issue Barnwell never seems to consider:
Of the three tight ends on the roster, the one who produces the most and is the most consistent is not the most expensive. That would be Brate.
Brate has only missed three games since the start of the 2015 season. While Gronk has answered the bell pretty well for how much he’s been beat up, in some of those games he was on the field in name only.
If the Bucs are truly trying to make a run at the Super Bowl, which they like to talk about, why get rid of a guy who not just produces week in and week out (when a tight end is involved in an offensive gameplan) but has 27 touchdowns since the start of the 2015 season?
In the same time frame, Gronk, playing with God’s gift at quarterback, has 24.
Since Gronk wants to play with the Bucs as long as Brady is here but is only under contract through the 2020 season, Joe can easily see his contract being re-worked as well.
Getting rid of Brate might save the team a few shekels, but it won’t help get them to the Super Bowl in February.
April 29th, 2020 at 5:28 am
“Getting rid of Brate might save the team a few shekels, but it won’t help the team get to the Super Bowl in February.“
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Joe, I disagree with the last sentence. We have Brady which means we are finally a place where players want to come PLAY and not come for PAY.
Only problem is we don’t have hardly any money. So with the last wave of FA on the way and potential players on the DL, RB, WR, CB, or OL, we should just ignore bolstering our roster because we wanted to have a 3rd TE when we didn’t use ANY last year?????!!?
Crazy talk. If getting rid of Brate’s salary leads us to getting some valuable role players, how can you last sentence be true? I hardly think a TE3 is more important than a WR4, CB4, or even a DL2. Didn’t we just resign Auclair and Hudson this offseason as well? I love the dude but come on, we are all in 2020, bye bye Brate.
April 29th, 2020 at 5:32 am
It would seem to me that Howard’s value was extremely diminished by his poor play last season. Aside from being a “value pick” in the first place, he’s nowhere near the 1st round value we drafted him at.
Considering the Bucs traded a 4th for Gronk who is far superior in every aspect, it’s hard to imagine the Bucs would get anything more than a 5th round pick for him.
Brate, an UDFA, has better value and I think his salary is higher too. I mean, neither player stood out last year. I guess you have to weigh whether OJ has a higher ceiling.
April 29th, 2020 at 5:50 am
I’ve been saying all offseason Brate is toast, but now that we’ve signed Brady & Gronk our needs have changed which might actually save Brate. I’m now reasoning the Bucs will use more 2TE sets and we all know how successful Brady was with Gronk & Hernandez. I see Brate playing the move TE role. If this becones a staple in the Bucs offense then you need 4 TEs for depth. Gronk & OJ play the same role while Brate & Hudson the other. Of course you could always mix & match but maintaining depth becomes critical to buffer against injury. This decision may ultimately come down to comparing TE depth against WR depth.
April 29th, 2020 at 5:53 am
No OJ before No Brate!! Simple as that!
Madea (bighog) will weigh in the race issue as she always does, but play on the field and stats are in Brates favor…i dont care if he was an australian aborigines….facts are facts, winners win! Its not about race but good gosh, watch the low IQ fktards go there….smdh already.
April 29th, 2020 at 6:06 am
You know who had a good season last year?
Dalvin Cook.
April 29th, 2020 at 6:15 am
While Brate is a likely candidate to trade because of his salary ($4.25 mil this year), he won’t get just outright released IMO because of his dead Cap hit (the very same $4.25 mil).
OJ is in almost exactly the same boat. His salary ($3.53 mil) is identical to his dead Cap value ($3.53 mil). IOW, cutting either player wouldn’t gain us any salary Cap space.
Billy Barnwell is correct when he said that “The Bucs could still keep all three tight ends, but as veterans who might help their defense come free, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa clears out cap space with a Brate trade.” But the key word IMO was ‘trade’, not release.
Personally however think that Gronk, OJ & Brate (plus Auclair) will ALL be here when the season starts … and that’s a good thing. That gives Brady several excellent receivers & blockers to work with. I’ve got faith that he’ll find a way to capitalize on each of their various talents (I don’t have that same faith in Byron Leftwich to use our TEs properly, but Brady will prevail there).
April 29th, 2020 at 6:29 am
Depth at TE. A good thing.
April 29th, 2020 at 6:46 am
Trade both of them. We have Gronk, and there’s some talent in Hudson, Legget. Then you’d have nearly 7 million in cap space, and two draft choice’s next year.
April 29th, 2020 at 6:47 am
A friend mentioned this Barnwell column to me yesterday and I answered him the same way that Defense Rule did above.
Once the Buc’s renegotiated Brate’s salary this offseason, it is very unlikely that they cut him with that cap hit. I think it was Barnwell just being very simplistic that once we had Gronk, who was the next biggest salary for our tight ends.
Barnwell did the same simplistic argument for Indy suggesting that once they drafted Jonathan Taylor that Marlon Mack is a cap casualty for them. Indy had 3 running backs that were able to play in the NFL last season. Now they have 4. They will not cut one just because they only had 3 last year.
April 29th, 2020 at 6:49 am
“Goofy lookin Brate will have the least chemistry with TB12
Brate cant separate quickly and wont be open in space for Brady even to attempt to pass to Brate
Brate favorite route is the seam pattern than needs anticipation between the QB because usually he is in traffic
TB12 doesn’t throw seam patterns neither does Leftwhich
*The first sign of success of the 2020 Bucs will be the removal of playcalling duties of Byron Leftwich”
Kobe Faker
April 29th, 2020 at 6:50 am
If we wanted to get rid of Brate or OJ, that could have been done…..Maybe we wouldn’t get the price for them we wanted but we could have moved them.
Perhaps a TE will go down with injury during camp and we will seize the opportunity.
Tanner Hudson seems to be the odd man out here…..maybe Auclair.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:10 am
All Im saying is OJ made big plays under Koetter, so find a way to incorporate him into the offense
April 29th, 2020 at 7:12 am
Trade Brate for Jamal Williams Barnwell say the packers are going to get rid of. Hes good at catching the ball out of the backfield. 2mil contract for one year good transition back until Vaughns on board. Also get 2mil out the cap.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:16 am
BTW Joe, Bucs now have everyone EXCEPT the rookies accounted for in their salary Cap computations according to Spotrac. Our Adjusted Salary Cap is $204,105,250 this year. Our present Top-51 contracts are $200,265,057 leaving us with $3,751,955 BEFORE the rookie draft pool is factored in (per Spotrac).
The top-4 rookies will collectively make $5,832,461 (projected cost, but that can certainly change when contracts are actually done). Their salaries would be more than the lowest paid on our current Top-51 so they’d displace them. Those ‘lowest-paid’ guys currently make $2,739,460, meaning that our Top-4 rookies will decrease our salary Cap by $3,093,001 once they sign. (The last-3 rookies will make $1,912,413, projected once again, but they wouldn’t make enough to displace any of the current Top-51).
That SHOULD leave us with a salary Cap of (positive) $658,954 with everyone signed. In reality however we MAY be considerably better off than that. A couple of guys in that Top-51 (Justin Evans & Kendell Beckwith) who together are making $2.6 mil who may not even be on the team come Fall. Only time will tell there.
More significantly, we’ve currently got a somewhat lopsided distribution of position groups, and that’ll sort itself out prior to season start. For instance, in that CURRENT Top-51 (before rookies factored in) we have 3 QB, 2 RB, 5 WR, 6 TE, 8 OLine on offense, plus 7 DLine, 4 ILB, 4 OLB, 6 CB, 4 S on defense and 1 K & 1 P on S/Ts. We surely won’t keep 6 TEs, plus once the rookies are added in it all changes anyways.
Bottom line to me is that we have to stay ‘in the ballpark’ when it comes to salary Cap 9not do something stupid), but it doesn’t really count until the season starts.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:20 am
We have 5 TEs, not including Leggette (cut). Gronk, OJ, Brate, Auclair, and Hudson. Somebody is leaving one way or another I know that much. I like Hudson’s upside too.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:25 am
@Kobe … “*The first sign of success of the 2020 Bucs will be the removal of playcalling duties of Byron Leftwich”.
Since BA obviously likes Byron, does your statement mean that BL would revert to being the QB coach for Tom Brady? Remember Kobe, lots of folks were touting Leftwich as the next HC of the Bucs. (Ya right; I’m with you Kobe).
April 29th, 2020 at 7:36 am
ncbucsfan … The Bucs website lists 7 TEs (Gronk, OJ, Brate, Auclair, Hudson, McElroy, Leggett). When they reflect Leggette as being cut like you said, that should take us down to 6 TEs. My guess is that Hudson & McElroy would be gone, since Auclair is a very good blocker & has actually shown decent hands when he got a chance (9 catches in 10 targets for 2017 & 2018 combined, but only 1 for 3 last year).
April 29th, 2020 at 7:39 am
Brate is what keeps our collection of weapons together.Gets hot in the red zone. If they were trying to sell Brate the deal would been done a long time ago. If Tyler Johnson can show up in the slot we could trade him next year.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:46 am
What is the infatuation with Hudson, an UDRFA who has chemistry with RGIV. When he got in the real game last year and the lights came on, poof, he disappeared, he’s light and can’t block, he is a developmental player, we do not need him in the locker room unless it’s the practice squad. Bucs rolling with Gronk, OJ, Brate and Auclair – the Bucs still have some pretty good receivers that can block as well (Godwin, Evans & Johnson – if he played for Fleck, you know he had to be a complete receiver) and you have emerging runner in ROJO and if you can’t tell it, Vaughn has that dog in him, to run, catch and block. All that with exactly ONE football in the game.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:46 am
I dont want a bunch of good TE’s on my team, said no coach ever
April 29th, 2020 at 7:47 am
So let me see if I get this right.
We have just signed the GOAT to play QB for us. In order to get him BA clearly made some concessions just as Brady may have done for BA.
The GOAT is famous for his use of TE’s. He now has his all time favorite in house.
He once was very successful with two TE’s of high caliber on the field at the same time. There is every reason to suspect TE will be a position of prominence once again.
This team appears to be ready to at least sniff the playoffs. As with most NFL teams ready to challenge the major issue is depth. And so we have ONE position…arguably an increasingly important position given Brady’s use of TE’s…that actually has depth and we’re ready to monkey with that?
April 29th, 2020 at 7:52 am
A few deals will get reworked….I remember Evans was an easy one if needed. Gronk, I’m thinking one of the linemen’s contracts could be redone. They’ve got at least $10 more million in wiggle room if they needed it.
April 29th, 2020 at 7:57 am
Lol at “TB12 doesn’t throw seam patterns”.
It’s only one of the routes that Gronk has mentioned being thrown to by Brady….
April 29th, 2020 at 7:58 am
be tough to trade Brate when OJ has been in a slump, even though he has a high ceiling.
I’d keep Brate over OJ in case Goink goes down, at least we still know we have a guy that is money!
April 29th, 2020 at 8:17 am
Brate > Oj
April 29th, 2020 at 8:17 am
“Kobe Faker hopes BA can compose himself when Brady starts screaming cursing yelling to his adopted son Byron Leftwich. TB12 cursed out nonstop every offensive coordinator playcaller he had in front of HC, players on the sideline in live TV
Kobe is predicting the cursing will be after Leftwich mockery of a runningback screen. Offensive lineman going all different ways. Runningback looking the wrong way. As Kobe has stated, Leftwich screen designs looks like 4 people playing twister
OMG the screeching screams of a Goat”
Kobe Faker
April 29th, 2020 at 8:26 am
I see Gronk being used on third downs and in the red zone, other than that I see Brate and Howard on the field for more snaps as a tight end.
Those still pining for Cook – get a life. Move on. Get some new material.
April 29th, 2020 at 8:27 am
Really back in moderation?
April 29th, 2020 at 8:37 am
Sorry, I’ll forever babe off the Brate train because of all the drops two years ago. Yes, I know he was crippled and it was quite manly to be out there, but he went from “reliable” to expendable real quick for me.
April 29th, 2020 at 8:37 am
*be off, not “babe” 😂
April 29th, 2020 at 8:43 am
This conflates multiple issues. Brate may be traded, but it won’t be because he isn’t currently a better TE than OJ. It will be because in light of our overall TE situation, he is more expendable, also considering our salary cap situation. If we trade him and don’t use the space wisely, it would be counterproductive.
April 29th, 2020 at 8:45 am
They do not need both tight ends
We have plenty
We need another edge rusher To help take some snaps from JPP and shaq
Free up some money and sign Clay Matthews
He played for rams last year for 4 mil so he could be had in 3-4 range
He had 8 sacks last year. And he is great leader and well respected in league
Sounds like a no brainer to me
April 29th, 2020 at 8:51 am
Just use Howard as a WR…..he’s huge and just as fast as a WR. Put him in motion to split out, the slot or motion in to block. No defense could adjust to OJ, Brate and Gronk moving all over.
April 29th, 2020 at 9:05 am
Thanks for the good laugh this morning Kobe. That image of The GOAT screaming at BL is now burned in my brain. The words ‘ACCOUNTABILITY FOR ALL’ come to mind.
April 29th, 2020 at 9:21 am
Brate is hardly hurt because he does not run block, and his routes sit down in the zone and he falls down as soon as he makes a catch, so he is hardly hit!!!!!!!! Why do you think he has a terrible “yac”!!!!!!!!!!
Its time to herd the sheep and put them back in the pen!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 29th, 2020 at 9:31 am
Pff grades Brate and Howard very low as tight ends go. So why would anyone would give you a draft pick for either one of these guys when they could use that pick to pick a better tight end. I understand Brate he was an undrafted free agent he’s has exceeded expectations in that regard but that’s about it. On the other hand Howard was another blown number one draft pick. Then sign Brate to a high contract. The need to trade Brate for another player needed more than a pile of tight ends and unload his contract.
April 29th, 2020 at 9:43 am
Per Over the Cap, Brate’s contract is fully guaranteed this year, so won’t save anything by cutting him. Only a trade will provide cap relief
April 29th, 2020 at 10:10 am
The more TEs the better. I recall the Bady being unstoppable with two TEs, though Aaron Hernandez was probably threatening CBs with their life as he ran down field.
April 29th, 2020 at 10:30 am
Keep Brate as Howards salary is low this year but next year will be his fifth year option and he will cost more that Gronk!!! We should have never drafted Howard but we can change that now. Remember Brate dropped his salary to stay with the Bucs!!!
April 29th, 2020 at 11:01 am
So here is how I remember things:
Brate as an undrafted free agent really made a name for himself in his early years. I think he caught his 2nd year all but one target amazing. plus he caught balls when he was covered. Gives confidence to a quarterback to throw to him. Problem is that he is decent athlete and not elite and he tends to be covered a good amount of time (last game of the year in overtime).
Further, he never has developed into an average in line blocker in the NFL. Something that both Brady and BA appreciate in their tight ends.
Howard has developed into an average in line blocker. In 2018, he suggested that going forward he was going to be a more explosive receiver than Brate imo.
Then last year, Howard regressed in his receiving ability. He still played the majority of snaps where Brate regressed and played less than 1/2 the snaps.
Going forward I don’t mind having them all on the team. I think the Buc’s will pick up the 5th year option on Howard (my guess is that will be 6.2 million) for next year as well.
April 29th, 2020 at 11:06 am
If you like PFF for their measurements:
OJ Howard 2019 54.9 (bad)… 2018 89.1 (elite)
Cam Brate 2019 66.3 (low starter) 2018 53.1 (bad)
Not sure it is worthwhile to go back more than 2 years but others can if they want.
April 29th, 2020 at 11:17 am
As far as I’m concerned they can trade Howard & Brate.
April 29th, 2020 at 11:37 am
Brate has 27 touchdowns which is 4th best among current tight ends. What’s your problem here? I don’t understand.
He was limited in snaps the last two years. Hopefully w Brady tossing he’ll get more action and his numbers will go up.
April 29th, 2020 at 11:42 am
Brate has 27 touchdowns which makes him 4th for most touchdowns the past 5 years. I don’t understand what people are complaining about. He took a cut in pay to play with Brady. Gronk has had many injuries. Brate has only missed 3 games in the last 6 years. There’s a lot of stupid Joe Buc fans out there who don’t see talent when it’s right in front of their eyes.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:17 pm
I might be the biggest OJ hater here. But it looks like they are going to keep him around a year.
Since that might be the case I will lay off OJ. Ill give him another chance since he has Tom thowing the ball and Gronk working with him. I got my own opinion but got no problems putting that aside and rooting for OJ while he is in red and pewter. Unlike others I don’t put my own little opinion above the team. So I hope to see OJ in a different form this autumn.
And if OJ fails I’ll be the first to rail on him. But I won’t be here saying I told you so. That’s not constructive at all and adds nothing. I don’t get off on that like some others. I will hope I’m dead ass wrong about OJ and if right I will take no joy in it.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:44 pm
That said the I want the Bucs to keep Brate. He took a pay cut so he comes at a fair rate.
He is a redzone threat like Joe mentioned but just as important is he can make plays in traffic over the middle. That’s an important role for us. I know Gronk can do it too. But using Brate can take some of the load off of Gronk and help keep him fresh for a playoff run……Not to mention if Gronk takes an injury having Brate will allow us to keep rolling.
Agreed with the premise if you wanna make a SB run keeping a guy like Brate is important.
April 29th, 2020 at 12:58 pm
Makes sense I guess because all Brate does is catch the ball! SMH
April 30th, 2020 at 11:28 am
It would be stupid to get rid of any of these players that have showed the can play on a high level!! Now if a defensive member goes down and they are forced to that’s different… But with injuries that oj and Gronk are famous for… getting rid of Brate (who Tom would love!!) Would not be very well thought out