The Patience Challenge At One Buc
April 17th, 2020
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
Don’t even think about it.
Every day generates a new rumor about Tampa Bay’s supposed interest in moving up in the first round of next week’s draft. According to these reports, there is growing concern at One Buc Place that the top four offensive tackles will be off the board if the Bucs remain at No. 14.
I say so be it.
If there’s an early run on tackles, that likely means the Bucs would have an opportunity to grab the second-best defensive line prospect in college football, behind Derrick Brown. That’s not a bad thing for a franchise that lost two up-front defenders in free agency. That’s not a bad thing for a team which starts 33-year-old Ndamukong Suh and 31-year-old Jason Pierre-Paul.
Suh’s a long shot to be re-signed in 2021. He will have 11 NFL years behind him and he won’t come cheap. So what’s wrong with letting the draft come to you and grabbing a hotshot prospect like Javon Kinlaw?
Absolutely nothing.
Some draft pundits believe the Bucs will move up to Jacksonville’s spot at No. 9 to guarantee a shot at Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills or Mekhi Becton. The idea would be to get ahead of tackle-hungry clubs like the Browns and Jets.
Here are three key reasons such a move would be foolish:
Bucs GM Jason Licht needs to stay patient, writes Ira Kaufman.
COST
Any team making a move up from No. 14 to No. 9 pays a steep price. In 2016, when the Titans vaulted from No. 15 to No. 8, they gave the Browns their No. 15 pick, a third-round selection in 2016 and a second-rounder in 2017.
Tennessee could afford the hit because the Titans had already picked up six draft choices from the Rams, who were desperate to grab the No. 1 overall spot to select Jared Goff.
In 2018, the Cardinals moved from No. 15 to No. 10 and drafted Josh Rosen. In exchange, they surrendered the No. 15 pick, along with picks in the third and fifth rounds.
POSITION
A 2020 reality check at left tackle is in order, Ira says.
Remember that any offensive tackle drafted by the Bucs next week will be expected to play on the right side this fall. Donovan Smith’s spot is secure, at least for 2020, so we’re not talking about the guy responsible for protecting Tom Brady’s blind side.
Whoever plays right tackle will be expected to open more holes than Demar Dotson, but the idea of giving up significant draft capital for a RIGHT tackle seems misguided.
QUALITY
These four tackles may stand at the head of the class, but we’re not talking about Tyron Smith or Jonathan Ogden here. These guys are not polished and there is a significant bust factor at the position.
Remember Ereck Flowers, a highly touted tackle out of the University of Miami? He was drafted in 2015 by the Giants with the No. 9 overall pick and he’s a Dolphin now — his fourth NFL team in an underwhelming NFL career.
“In terms of the challenge of evaluating these guys and the transition, it’s huge because you can just be physically better than 99 percent of the players you’re going to see in college,” says NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah. “You’re an an offensive tackle, I don’t care if you’re in a great conference.
You’re not going to see down-in and down-out NFL players every time, and even if you are matching up with NFL players … you’re not having to block these guys like you’re going to be challenged to block the guys at the next level. It’s just different. So you’re getting challenged. You can’t just overpower these guys. Your technique is going to come into play.”
If the biggest hole on your roster is at right tackle, you’ve got a pretty good football team. In the worst-case scenario, you let Joe Haeg duke it out with a veteran cut by another team at the end of training camp. There’s no need to panic.
Yes, the Bucs are all-in while Brady’s under center. But that doesn’t mean you abandon the No. 1 rule entering any draft: Find value.
If the Bucs walk away with Javon Kinlaw and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, nobody should be mourning the absence of a right tackle. If one of the Big 4 is there, take him, but don’t force the issue.
We’ve seen what has happened at One Buc Place when need is allowed to trump value. It hasn’t been a pretty sight.
Stay patient. Stay smart. Stay true.
Ira with his good friend Sean Sullivan, general manager of Bill Currie Ford, Tampa’s first family of Ford. Sean will help you personally in any way he can. It’s the Bill Currie way. Click Ira’s nose to visit BillCurrieFord.com.
April 17th, 2020 at 12:37 pm
Excellent take Ira, agree 💯.
April 17th, 2020 at 12:37 pm
100 percent agree! Good call Mr Ira
April 17th, 2020 at 12:41 pm
Yeah, we need to keep our picks. If a big 4 OT is available at 14 that is on our board, then grab him. We however also need a RB, DT and safety IMO and will need our picks.
April 17th, 2020 at 12:44 pm
Offensive Line, in my opinion, happens to be an area where Licht shines. He found Donovan Smith and Ali Marpet in the second round, right? Smith has his weaknesses, but he is average-at-worst at the position. And Marpet is gold. So I’m with you on this, Sage. Keep the picks, take best available at #14.
April 17th, 2020 at 12:59 pm
Totally agree with the Sage !!!!
April 17th, 2020 at 1:00 pm
Absolutely, positively, most certainly……right on!!!
April 17th, 2020 at 1:03 pm
Thank you Ira.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:09 pm
Sounds good, Sage!
April 17th, 2020 at 1:14 pm
i hope we take kinlaw even if 1 of the big 4 are on the board….
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 17th, 2020 at 1:14 pm
I hope the Bucs read this post from Ira and listen to the Sage wisdom.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:15 pm
Get the best pass protector for Brady, you want to run the ball go left. Smith/Marpet vs Cappa/Rookie. I don’t like the idea of giving up picks for an OL.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:30 pm
Sage advice…I would take whatever player can help us the most this year. No need to trade up.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:34 pm
I’d be happy with Kinlaw and CEH. We could even trade back into the 2nd if an OT slides.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:57 pm
All OTs gone by #14 trade down get a lower first rounder and maybe a late second rounder or early third rounder.
April 17th, 2020 at 1:57 pm
I don’t want to trade up but it is very likely Kinlaw will be gone too. San Francisco picks right before us and they have a need now.
April 17th, 2020 at 2:09 pm
Love ya Sage, but if the top 4 are gone grab Josh Jones. Some have him ahead of Becton. We need RT!
April 17th, 2020 at 2:10 pm
Agreed ….do not spend to move up. Too deep a draft to give up capital in the middle rounds!
April 17th, 2020 at 2:15 pm
Ira is the best! Nothing more to say since he said it all.
April 17th, 2020 at 2:17 pm
Chad Reuter has a 7 round mock draft at NFL. that makes me happy.
April 17th, 2020 at 2:19 pm
Ok Ira we’ve see what happens too when value is allowed to TRUMP (pun intended) needs. Ie No disrespect to the youngin but TE OJ Howard over one of the top RB in that class Dalvin Cook. Now look at us…. Sometimes I wonder if yall know rather you coming or going over there at ah Joe Bucs Fan… You’re supposed to be the sage as the Joe’s like to call you… Their title for you… 😂 But still in all I love holding yall accountable for some of the mess yall say or decide to print.
April 17th, 2020 at 2:25 pm
I agree Ira. Very reasonable take.
April 17th, 2020 at 2:47 pm
I agree with allbuccedup. If none of the big 4 are available, trade back to 15-21 and get an extra 2nd or 3rd rd pick. Get Josh Jones or Ezra Cleveland at OT. This is a deep draft for RB, DT and WR. You could get a RB and S in the 2nd and DT in the 3rd.
April 17th, 2020 at 3:15 pm
yep.
April 17th, 2020 at 3:24 pm
ira 100% correct
April 17th, 2020 at 3:25 pm
I’m sure Jason the licht is never on will f things up
April 17th, 2020 at 3:43 pm
BINGO !!!
April 17th, 2020 at 4:16 pm
Agree Ira.
Just saw this Chad Reuter mock which is pretty solid/optimistic:
1-OT Andrew Thomas
2-RB D’Andre Swift
3-QB Jacob Eason
4-S Geno Stone
4-DE DJ Wonnum
5 OG Solomon Kindley
6 DT Khalil Davis
Literally all positions of need and great value in R1-3
only change would be give me a WR somewhere in R4-6 over one of those players and sign a vet for the position we gave up
April 17th, 2020 at 4:32 pm
Dead spot on Ira!
April 17th, 2020 at 4:35 pm
@LordCornelius….all Georgia or former Georgia boys in the first 3 rounds…nah!!!
April 17th, 2020 at 4:40 pm
I mean trading a third to get a guy like Jedrick Wills isn’t a bad idea. I wouldn’t call giving up a third round pick to draft a tackle with an all pro upside misguided by any stretch.
April 17th, 2020 at 5:51 pm
Trading up would be stupid. Stay at #14 and take one of the big 4 OL. If none of them are available, strongly consider trading back.
April 17th, 2020 at 5:56 pm
I don’t want Jacob Eason, not even in the 3rd round. I doubt Swift lasts to our pick in the 2nd. I’m good with the 1st round pick in that mock.
April 17th, 2020 at 6:03 pm
Itz ok to stay at 14 or even down to draft a right tackle. 4 left tackles are not going in the top ten. If they do then good grab one of the two stub defensive linemen trade back later and you can still get a good right tackle in the second round of the draft. Get a RB or draft a safety like winfield JR who can play the honey badger safety type role to shore up the backend of the defense.
April 17th, 2020 at 6:16 pm
Kinlaw would give us four 1st round picks up front. Two young, two old, not bad, all 1st rounders. The 14th pick in the draft you want it to be a game changer. Don’t allow need to make you settle for the pick. You can get a good RT after round one to battle Haeg. Get a game changer at 14.
April 17th, 2020 at 8:21 pm
I agree 💯
April 17th, 2020 at 8:53 pm
This article sums up my feelings on this subject to a “T”. Since when do Bucs fans get this worked up over trying to trade up for a right tackle.
I’m all for trying to find a good right tackle, but in what world have teams had to get into the top 10 picks to fill that position? The top 15 picks is for taking game changing players. None of these top four offensive tackles are cant miss prospects and I could easily see one or two of them falling past the Bucs.
Yes, they could fall past the Bucs. In a predraft situation like this where teams haven’t had the chance to get these guys in front of them personally, expect some weird picks this year whith GMs relying heavily on their scouting departments.
April 17th, 2020 at 9:39 pm
Yep
April 17th, 2020 at 10:15 pm
Agree. Don’t like the idea of trading up for a RT.
April 17th, 2020 at 11:00 pm
So we are going all in and completely threw away any future we had and now we want to be patient?
April 18th, 2020 at 7:51 am
Agreed guys! I think there will be trades galore and a few head scratchers and Kinlaw or even 2 tackles will fall to us. If don’t like who’s there then a QB hungry team will give up next years first and another day 2 pick this year to trade up for Love. I like where we are sitting. If O.J. Howard’s traded and me just the 14 to move up then I’m ok with that but we can ill afford to give up more draft capital this year just to move up. There are no Joe Thomas’s in this draft or Quentin Nelsons’s just solid potential starters.
Kudos to fellow jbf informed fans for giving props to Licht for his small town school finds on the offensive line. Cappa should make another large keep this year and he looks to be very difficult to beat out with the toughness he’s already shown.
April 18th, 2020 at 8:42 am
Amen, Ira. At the end of the day, it’s a RT, not a generational football player.
April 18th, 2020 at 9:34 am
Ira, sounds like your contradicting yourself. First you point out what a bust Flowers was after being picked #9 by the Giants. And then you say if one of the so called top 4 are there to take them. If not maybe a DT. So whose to say Jones or Jackson won’t be better than the top 4. Myself I would not count out Jones.
April 18th, 2020 at 10:27 pm
Good article, I agree 100%. Our team is nowhere near good enough to give up draft picks just to draft a right tackle.
April 19th, 2020 at 10:39 am
Good plan!!!!!! Dammit Ira go talk to Licht!! Don’t let them throw away picks for a what if!!!! Get Taylor and chaisson pleeeeeease!!!! Those dudes will immediately impact whatever team they go to!!