First-Round Follies
April 15th, 2020
An underrated question about a team’s NFL Draft is whether the guys in charge know what the heck they are doing.
So who’s actually in charge of the draft at One Buc Palace? There’s the corporate answer of unmatched unity, and then there’s the stone-cold reality behind the scenes.
Joe’s not going to pretend to know exactly where the truth lies, or how Team Glazer factors into the authority reality.
But what is fact is the draft record of Bucco Bruce Arians as a powerful head coach, and that of Jason Licht as Bucs general manager.
Here’s Arians’ first-round record from his Arizona days:
2013 Jonathan Cooper – No. 7 overall, Guard – Played for 7 NFL teams and is out of football.
2014 Deone Bucannon – No. 27 overall, Safety/Linebacker – Didn’t perform to draft level. Cut by Bucs last year.
2015 D.J. Humphries – No. 24 overall, Left Tackle – Clashed with Bruce Arians. Had his first good season in 2019.
2016 Robert Nkemdiche – No. 29 overall, Defensive Tackle – Out of football.
2017 Haason Reddick – No. 13 overall, Linebacker – A backup in Arizona. Speculation there that he could be cut or traded.
And then there’s Jason Licht’s Round 1 picks in Tampa before Arians.
2014 – Mike Evans, No. 7 overall
2015 – Jameis Winston, No. 1 overall
2016 – Vernon Hargreaves, No. 11 overall
2017 – O.J. Howard, No. 19 overall
2018 – Vita Vea, No. 12 overall
And don’t forget last year’s No. 5 overall selection of Devin White with Licht and Arians together.
That’s 11 first-round picks.
Maybe Licht is hitting at a 50 percent clip in Round 1. That’s the bare minimum acceptable standard, especially considering Licht has never operated in the bottom third of the first round. Licht’s Round 1 trade down in 2018 netted Carlton Davis, so if you consider him a good second-round pick, then Licht’s first-round record looks better.
Arians’ record is ugly.
White taking the Year 2 leap that most good players enjoy would be a huge bonus for the records of Arians and Licht.
In 8 short days, Arians and Licht will need to find a way to nail the No. 14 overall pick, or whatever they do with it. With the Bucs all-in on Tom Brady, the pick must either be an instant slam-dunk producer or a home run quarterback prospect.
Are you confident Arians and Licht will get it right?
April 15th, 2020 at 10:25 am
I would consider Hargraves the only bust so far for Licht. (OJ still not sure). It’s the 2nd round that he needs to be locked in a closet until round 3 starts.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:30 am
seems like the scouting department in ARZ has some work to do…lol….
bucs are actually getting slightly better in that department imo….
JW is the biggest BUST on that list as a former #1 overall pick…..
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 10:39 am
dewey
how is JW NOT a BUST?…lol….
JW didnt live up to his #1 overall selection…
he threw for 5k yards and teams wont touch him with a 10ft pole…lol…
VHG was called out for loafing, didnt live up to his 1st round bill, released and the texans picked him up and then re-signed him…
VHG currently has a job…lol…
JW is currently looking for a job…..
JW is the biggest BUST for licht and it aint even close….lol….
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 10:41 am
Hargreaves was a dumb A pick at the time, JW was the right pick at the time, and would have worked out sans TOM BRADY!
Licht has done pretty well actually. Remember that OJ was the 19th pick. I’d say at that place in the draft, he had before last year been trending towards value.
I think Licht has done well. But god help us, his secobd round picks are so bad. So so so so bad. Honestly, this is not a joke, most people who read this site can do better. (Also why he’s likely to draft Helaire who is a sure fire busy looking for a place to happen.)
April 15th, 2020 at 10:41 am
Nailing #14 is Kinlaw all day.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:42 am
Bucboi, Busts don’t stay in the league 5 years and throw 122 td’s. Busts are out of the league in 2 years.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:49 am
We will never know how the draft decisions are made by the Bucs. Licht has the GM position and must be held responsible.
And well definitely never know how the decisions were made in Arizona. Their GM needs to be held responsible.
But we can assume the HC does have some sway with draft picks. How much is anybody’s guess. The GM must still be held responsible. It’s his job after all.
Reguardless none of them draft classes matter to the 2020 draft. The factors for how those decisions were made were different……..Especially the Arizona drafts where they had a completely different GM and completely different scouting department.
We shall see how this regime does. I think it’s safe to say our process of making decisions is different then it was in 2014-2018……..Last years decisions look pretty good so far. No reason to worry about Arizona Cardinal decisions from 5 years ago.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:52 am
We are going to crush the draft this year.
Licht and Arians have their fair share of busts. Time to hit a three run homer and bring us some playoff football.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:53 am
813……Just stop. You are embarrassing yourself.
The guy was an absolute bust of an outside corner. That’s why he had to take a part time position and forfieted like 9 million dollars in salary.
Whether or not Winston was a bust does not mask the fact that Vernon was a bust and was an absolute Trainwreck of a draft choice. Your comment sucks.
April 15th, 2020 at 10:54 am
What did his record of players through the rest of those rounds. Licht haters hate but don’t realize he gets guys like Hump and Brate as UDFA. I’m excited to see fifth round Watson does with Tom’s accuracy.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:02 am
Considering Bill O’Brian signed VH3, that isn’t much of an endorsement. Speaking of someone who should be barred from making GM decisions…
April 15th, 2020 at 11:05 am
Well making a judgment on GM performace only on 1 picks is pretty incomplete…..if you take a a look to all his tenure on draft picking I find it myself a pretty irregular one…..And for sure Evans VEa are really good, OJ was good, but I can´t say the same with VHlll and JW…….
April 15th, 2020 at 11:10 am
Licht seems to do better on the offensive side of the ball (some of his defensive picks like VHIII, Spence, MJ Stewart & a few others were circumspect). And I’m still convinced that BA & TB had the biggest say in last year’s draft (mostly defense).
But this year it’s almost a ‘can’t miss draft’ in many ways. Our draft priorities should be clear as a bell to BA & JL … OLine, RB, DLine, WR then 3 picks to play with for depth signings. This is an excellent draft for OLinemen, for RBs & for WRs. A little thin on DLinemen, but there’s still some talent there. As long as the 2 of them don’t ‘overthink it’ we should come away with a solid draft and be able to fill our starting holes.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:14 am
Jimmy Jack you see why people like me respond because someone has to be sane with idiots ike 813 roaming around, Jameis needs at least to be defended at the bare minimum.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:16 am
Bleacher Report just wrote an article- Redrafting the 2019 Draft.
In this re-draft, we have three players selected in the top 25 picks – Devin White (7th overall), SMB (16th), and Jamel Dean (24th).
For all the ups and downs, Jason Licht deserves some credit for nailing it last year. This doesn’t even consider bringing in Barret and Suh in FA.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:17 am
Dewey Selmon Says:
April 15th, 2020 at 10:42 am
Bucboi, Busts don’t stay in the league 5 years and throw 122 td’s. Busts are out of the league in 2 years.
so by that comment VHG aint a bust….
he’s still in the league and JW isnt….lol…
how can a player that was drafted #1 overall and out of the league after his 5th year not a bust but a player thats still employed by the NFL a bust?…lol…
that doesnt make any sense…..lol…
GO BUCS!!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 11:19 am
BTW Joe, I didn’t realize until a few minutes ago that BA had drafted TJ Logan in 2017. That in addition to Deone Bucannon in 2014, plus Kevin Minter, Earl Watford & Andre Ellington in 2013. Thus far only Logan & Minter have been re-signed this year as Bucs.
Still what’s interesting is that the majority of the FAs we signed last year were ex-Cardinals raised by BA. And Shaq & Suh came onboard largely because of Todd Bowles IMO. Kinda leaves me wondering exactly what Licht was doing last year.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:21 am
Jimmy
WTF are you talking about?….lol….
VHG is a bust….plain and simple….just like JW….
for folks to say VHG is a bust and JW not a bust is insane….
VHG was a bad pick….but so was JW….bucs choosing not to resign him and other teams staying away from him proves that……VHG has a home with the texans….
JW is the biggest BUST on that list above…
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 11:24 am
NDOG
how can you defend JW?….lol…
the fact is, VHG and JW are BOTH BUST!!!!
the fact is JW was drafted #1 overall and is out of the league after his 5th year after throwing for 5k yards….
VHG, with all his lousy play and getting torched every sunday, is currently with the texans…..
that speaks volumes….
you cant defend that….
GO BUCS!!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 11:26 am
yawn …has it started yet?
April 15th, 2020 at 11:27 am
813 there are a lot of people that post on this site that don’t know what they’re talking about, but you by far have to have the least amount of knowledge of football of anyone that’s probably ever lived on the earth at any point in time.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:28 am
813 the fact you think he is “out of the league” just shows you how completely idiotic you are.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:33 am
Ndog …triggered again ..go back to bed Jameis
April 15th, 2020 at 11:40 am
OK bud. But Winston is going to get another chance to start somewhere one day.
Vernon is never gonna be asked by anyone to play outside corner ever again. Veronon will grovel for work the rest of his career and his cieling will be a journeyman experienced corner.
I don’t even know why you have to bring Winston into the equation as some weak attempt to defend Vernon. Seems rather petty on your part to be honest.
And the fact that Winston hasn’t signed yet doesn’t help your argument one bit. Just so you know the reason he isn’t signed is because he is still waiting to see if a starters job becomes avialable to him……..meanwhile Vernon accepted a chump change deal to be a part time player. Do you see the difference?
April 15th, 2020 at 11:40 am
Yea TB failed Jameis he is not a bust!
April 15th, 2020 at 11:46 am
He nailed 2014 possible HOF
2015 we neede a QB, what he should of picked MM?
2016 VHII, Rankins would of been the better pick DT was a need also. 2016 was a bad draft class.
2017 Howard was suppose to be top 10 good value at that time. Cook would of been a better pick.
2018 VV is a beast.
2019 White looks like a good pick.
Not to bad in the first.
April 15th, 2020 at 11:50 am
The sheep fighting over who the bigger bust was, yet not one word about the so-called GM that drafted both of them, is just another example of the low standards and zero accountability!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is worst then when the sheep thought that coaching was the issue and then witnessed a losing season!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Intern zach ask: Mr. Realist, do sheep learn???
The Buc Realist says: Not in tampa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 11:53 am
The sheep all voted and unanimously decided that Coach Arians and his staff get a pass for 2019. We are currently voting whether or not to give a preseason pass for the 2020 campaign for the entire 2020 season due to a new QB and the virus. We are thinking about making it a 2year pass also.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:05 pm
Winston is the definition of bust. 1st overall pick, never got to the playoffs, didn’t get to a 2nd contract, holds the record for most pick 6s in a season. Instead the Bucs spun their wheels for 5 years, as we watched Wentz, Mahomes, Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray become franchise QBs. We also would have been better off with Goff, Baker, Danny Dimes, or Josh Allen, although the jury is still out in these guys, Goff made it to a Super Bowl and Allen to the playoffs. Winston can’t even find a job.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:06 pm
Funny how people have right to be defending JW on the platform, he led the league in picks since he was drafted, he should’ve been given the Defensive player of last season, his picks alone gave our opponents total of 125 points and you lot still have right to defend on this platform have some shame man.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:15 pm
I think you have to go with the best player available, because chances are that if you draft for need, you are reaching.
Devin WHite is nice, but not Top 5 nice.
Big misses last year, DK Metcalf and Miles Sanders, shoot even Gardner Minshew. all picked after Sean Murphy Bunting. lol
April 15th, 2020 at 12:20 pm
This year with so much more tape watching, I will be very interested to go back and review in 3 years how all teams perform.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:26 pm
I looked up Jonathan Coopers pre-draft info, and I just can’t blame Arians for him being a bust. He had all the measurables and accolades to go along with his position in the draft. Anyone looking at this guy would’ve said he was a future star, and the same could have been said about Humphries as well.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:27 pm
ZZbuc … I agree that making a judgment on GM performance based only on our #1 pick gives an incomplete picture. Personally feel that teams have to hit in at least 2 of the Top-3 Rnds (starters and/or key rotational players) or they’ll pay down the road. Bucs haven’t done all THAT poorly in Rnd 1, and although we’ve had a few stumbles in Rnd 2 & 3, we really haven’t done all that poorly there either.
Our bigger problem I think has been more in the quality of the guys we’ve picked in some cases. How many have made the Pro Bowl or All-Pro for instance? Too many started for the Bucs, but would’ve been ‘depth players’ (at best) on most playoff teams. Of course a lot of that also has to do with player development, and playing ‘musical coaches’ for many years didn’t do much for player development.
It stinks to be in a position where you HAVE TO fill starting holes in the draft. On a team like the Bucs, I’ve become accustomed to EXPECTING that our Rnd 1 & 2 picks will START, and that our Rnd 3 (and possibly Rnd 4) pick will be a key rotational player(s). That’s the position though that mediocre TEAM-BUILDING over several years puts you in. Quality TEAMS that make the playoffs regularly usually don’t NEED more than maybe 1 of their rookies to start for them. Bucs all too often haven’t had that luxury.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:49 pm
Ndog Says:
April 15th, 2020 at 11:28 am
813 the fact you think he is “out of the league” just shows you how completely idiotic you are.
LMAO….
the fact that you think JW is still in the league just shows how completely idiotic you are…..
does JW currently have a contract in the nfl?…..
GO BUCS!!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 12:51 pm
“You are what your RECORD says you are!”
This includes GMs folks. You cannot discount the fact that this franchise has been awful with Jason Licht at the helm. Sorry, but this is a cold hard fact. Until this franchise turns around (this year!), Licht owns this losing record.
April 15th, 2020 at 12:58 pm
Rarely agree with NDog but he is right 813.
Winston is a free agent. According to your logic Cam Newton, Delaine Walker, Clowney, Jason Peters & Devonta Freeman are also out of the league?
You lose the argument bro.
April 15th, 2020 at 1:21 pm
JIMMY
your argument is weak…..lol…
JW is going to get another chance to start?…when?…lol….
he threw for 5k yards…teams that need a QB shouldve already signed him….IF he wasnt a BUST…..
who cares if he starts outside….he’ll be playing in the NFL…..unlike JW….
my main reason for bringing up VHG was in response to @dewey….he said VHG was the biggest bust and i disagreed and explained why JW is the biggest bust…..then you jumped into the convo….lol…
the fact that VHG IS SIGNED helps my argument in every way…..lol….
IF JW is signed by a team, he’ll be a back up…..he’s not starting in the NFL every again……
a team wanted VHG, offered VHG a contract and he accepted the deal….
JW cant accept a deal because NO team has offered him…..
do you see the difference?….
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 1:27 pm
jimmy
you cant compare those players situation to JW….lol….
you lose that argument son…..
GO BUCS!!!!!
April 15th, 2020 at 1:52 pm
You see Jimmy Jack this is exactly why I get the way I get, morons like this guy.
April 15th, 2020 at 2:07 pm
Steve Keim was in control of things in AZ, for the most part. As we saw in HK the Bidwells actually are fairly actively involved with day to day operations.
Last years draft is a tremendous harbinger of good things to come. In my eyes they nailed the first 3 picks of the draft. Where Edward’s, Nelson and Miller all still have great potential.
Cant wait to see the way the draft plays out this year.
April 15th, 2020 at 2:09 pm
Aye aye yai……Lose the argument and keep on arguing. And you rebuttal sounds like the Pee Wee Herman show………Trust me your making it worse not better.
April 15th, 2020 at 2:15 pm
This is kinda related to this, but also not really at the same time lol.
Bleacher Report did a 2019 1st round re-draft yesterday.
Devin White, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean were all selected by Bleacher Report as 1st rounders.
I’d say the Licht/BA draft team is off to a good start.
April 15th, 2020 at 3:16 pm
Licht has picked in the top half of the draft which is usually easier to spot talent – however he shares blame for the #1 overall – Most important player on the team that didn’t make it.
Arians – if he was indeed the decision maker as you suggest was picking at 24, 27 and 29 3 out of the 5 years. IF he called the shots thats a lot different talent level than OUR WORLD CLASS GM had to pick from. . also meant he guided his team to better records that the coaches our SUPERSTAR has assembled so far
April 15th, 2020 at 3:56 pm
After 6 Jason drafts… what would our team look like without free agents?
April 15th, 2020 at 4:21 pm
I can see why BA is prejudiced against OL first rounders…BA is not exactly a talent savant when it comes to OL.
Licht OTOH played OL and has done pretty well there. In fact 60% of our starting line are Licht picks. I trust Licht with this first pick if it’s the RT we expect.
Virtually impossible to judge Licht’s drafts. He’s only had two years as the certain top dog…and even there we do not now how much influence Koetter had. In fact as OC Koetter reportedly did not want JW…I do not know however if he wanted MM…another larger mistake…or the right move in hindsight…cash that top pick in for a boatload of choices to rebuild the TEAM. Lovie was making the call back then.
April 15th, 2020 at 5:57 pm
I dont think BA had much say on draft in AZ.
April 15th, 2020 at 5:58 pm
There is no term applicable to Jay Miss as the Number One overall pick in the draft other than a “bust.” Is he as big a bust as Jamarcus Russell – no. However, he’s still a bust.
April 15th, 2020 at 6:31 pm
Geez, when you write it down like that, the first round draft record for Arians and Licht is pathetic. No one but Evans, Vea, and White (it’s early, but so far so good) were worthy of being taken where they were. Humphries and Jameis are just average at best, while everyone else on the list is a complete bust.
I’d be mortified if Licht hadn’t pulled off some good moves in later rounds, so I’m confident that we’ll end up with a couple of eventual starters. Every front office makes boneheaded moves and Licht’s record puts him in the middle of the pack in my opinion.
April 15th, 2020 at 6:45 pm
Instead of drafting for need they should draft best player available. They screwed up when they drafted for need like Vernon Hargraves III. And unfortunately Jameis was just like college – a turnover machine. Alas I wanted him picked. OJ Howard who knows – offensive scheme? Or just overrated?
April 16th, 2020 at 10:06 am
Ndog go sizz jameis’s dizz you fizz
April 22nd, 2020 at 9:53 am
Compare him to every other GM over the same time period and see who has more success. Mike Evans, Vita Vea, White, and Winston were good picks. Let’s face it, hard to call a guy who led the league in passing and is one of only 5 QB’s in history to throw for over 5,000 yards a bust. He’s just careless with the ball but still the right pick at the time. I like Licht’s record here so far. He’s built a helluva team for this year. Forget the Corona virus, the Bucs receiving Corp is what teams need to be afraid of!!