Legitimate Hope
February 13th, 2020
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BY IRA KAUFMAN
When Bruce Arians vowed the Bucs will be a tough team to beat when they stop beating themselves, he was speaking from strength.
Lost in the darkness of another losing season are legitimate highlights, offering hope that 2020 will be the year Tampa Bay ends the NFC’s longest playoff drought.
The Bucs made meaningful strides in several key areas last fall.
There’s no guarantee the 2020 club will build on those pillars, especially given a challenging salary-cap situation, but the same coaching staff returns to implement the same principles.
You would think the bulk of the core group will return, although Jameis Winston’s future at One Buc Place remains uncertain. My best guess is he’ll be back for Year 2 with the quarterback whisperer, albeit with a much shorter leash.
What did the Bucs do so very well last season? Let us count the ways.
Finishing
Tops on my list is the efficiency in the red zone. Buc fans were used to seeing this offense turtle when the field shrinks, settling for field goals — or missed field goal attempts — that came back to haunt this franchise year after year.
Not last fall.
The Bucs entered the red zone on 54 occasions and cashed in 35 times with touchdowns, a 64.8 percent success rate that ranked fourth behind the Titans, Ravens and Eagles … three playoff teams.
That’s right, the Bucs were better inside the opponent’s 20 than the Saints, Chiefs and Packers.
Todd Bowles had his group equally focused as Buc opponents scored touchdowns on only 50 percent of their ventures into the red zone.
Only five defenses were stingier than Tampa Bay’s inside the 20.
Buc fans used to wail the blues when it came to the red zone, but it was a priority with this coaching staff and the results were striking.
What’s behind Door No. 2?
You couldn’t run on the Bucs in 2019. By the end of the season, most teams didn’t even try.
This defense yielded an average of only 73.8 yards on the ground, 13 yards less than the Jets at No. 2. Opponents averaged a mere 3.3 yards per carry, tied with the Jets for the top spot in the league.
The Bucs didn’t break many long runs, but neither did the opposition as Tampa Bay allowed an NFL-low 4 runs of 20 yards or more. And Chris Carson’s 59-yard scamper at Seattle was the only run of 40 yards or more all season against the Bucs.
Credit must first go to Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh for their gritty work as run-stuffing defensive tackles. Lavonte David roamed sideline to sideline, as usual, and the secondary was not shy in providing run support.
Many Missions Accomplished
Will Suh be back — or will the Bucs replace him in the draft with a younger, cheaper version? Not an easy call, but my hunch is Suh moves on.
Arians arrived with a reputation for preferring big-play passing attacks, and the 2019 Bucs surely reflected that philosophy. Even when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin watched from the sidelines, Winston kept firing away downfield.
In the end, the results were mixed, but the production cannot be denied. In fact, the numbers are rather extraordinary.
For instance, Evans averaged 17.3 yards per catch, tops among all players with more than 65 receptions. Despite missing the final two games, Godwin led the league with 25 catches of 20 yards or more. And let’s not forget about Mr. Perriman.
All Breshad Perriman did was average 17.9 yards for the season, enhancing his potential free-agent profile with 25 catches for 506 yards and five touchdowns in the closing five games.
If the Arians goal was to stretch defenses, consider them stretched out of shape. And while an aggressive approach is likely to lead to more sacks and more interceptions, the fact remains the Bucs just averaged more than 28 points per game — despite leading the NFL in giveaways.
Now the Bucs have a full offseason to build on their strengths and camouflage their weaknesses. Sounds like a plan.
Ira loves telling people about the nationwide lifetime warranty on USED and NEW vehicles at Bill Currie Ford, Tampa’s first family of Ford. Ask for his friend, GM Sean Sullivan. He’ll take care of you personally and give you a JoeBucFan/Ira discount.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:00 pm
CBS had a decent article on the Bucs that broke down the team’s performance over Winston’s 5 year tenure:
Yards per carry – 30th (3.9)
Rushing yards per game – 24th (103.4)
First down % on rushes – 31st (19.9%)
Rushing TDs – 25th
Points Allowed – 31st (2081, only Miami – 2089 – is worse)
Opposer Passer Rating – 31st (97.0, only Detroit – 98.6 – is worse)
Scrimmage Yards Allowed – 25th (377.2/game)
Outside of a 5 game stretch in 2016, and the 2nd half of last year, Winston hasn’t been on a competitive football team.
I said my biggest concern with Winston now was that the defense played at an elite level down the stretch and Winston negated it and even a game manager QB wins us those games vs Houston/Atlanta. If we stay with him my only hope is that losing Godwin/Evans that late in the season was too much of an adjustment to make with the offense.
But other than the end of last year that hadn’t happened really much from 2015-2018.
Go look at the game logs. Go look at how we lost games. He was pretty damn clutch by the game logs and the defense / kickers were not.
Going to be an interesting offseason / regular season.
GO BUCS
February 13th, 2020 at 1:04 pm
813bucboi Says:
February 11th, 2020 at 8:51 am
i think they’ll bring him back on the tag and imo, it wont be good….we just saw how he performed under the pressure on a 1year deal in 2019…..
one things for sure, he wont have 30INTs in 2020….he may not even have 15INTs …..
if he has 10 by mid OCT like he did in 2019, im sure BA will pull him and that’ll be the end of JW much like MM….
GO BUCS!!!!!!
**************************************************************
LMAO…
just mentioned how JW will have a short leash or quick hook in 2020…..
GO BUCS!!!!!!
February 13th, 2020 at 1:11 pm
LC
yeah he lost ME13 and CG12 but he already had 24 INTs before those 2 were out…lol…
like you said, when the defense turned it around, he flopped…and the apologist were screaming defense defense defense…..
folks want to bring up mike and chris but he already had a sh!t load of INTs….lol….
GO BUCS!!!!!
February 13th, 2020 at 1:13 pm
The only hope bucs have is if glazers fold team
February 13th, 2020 at 1:19 pm
Sing it Ira!!! We have an identity brewing!!!
Tighten up a few things and this team will be in the mix!
Go Bucs!!!
In BA I Trust!
February 13th, 2020 at 1:20 pm
If the bucs had an average qb the team would have winning record and good chance at playoffs,, after 5 yrs ,enough …move on from Winston !!
February 13th, 2020 at 1:20 pm
I think we bring just about everyone backand add a few pieces. I love BA and know since he has 2 years to go we will make the wild card game and maybe back to back playoff seasons before he leaves. Unforunately though, I think that will be the most we will ever get from the Licht and Jameis era
February 13th, 2020 at 1:26 pm
Fix the run game, sign our defensive stars and get a QB who doesn’t turn the ball over.
That’s what San Francisco did. 4-12 to NFC Champs.
This isn’t complicated.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:28 pm
813- my only fear with JW is that if we sign him to a 1 year deal- his sphincter will pucker again. He has ALWAYS been a clutch player, the last 2 games cost him a 3-5 year extension IMO (which is a shame because he was playing with 4th and 5th string WRs and no TEs (simply because we don’t use them) and no running game. He tried to hard and his sphinx tightened, JMO
February 13th, 2020 at 1:30 pm
Most of us would be happy if Jameis could get those interceptions down between 14 to 18. still a lot but a vast improvement for him and us. IF..we can keep this Defensive bunch together and add a couple of pieces. We might be in line to see a playoff game or 2 with us in them. We are overdue guys. Lets make the playoffs this coming year.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:30 pm
Lord C … “Outside of a 5 game stretch in 2016, and the 2nd half of last year, Winston hasn’t been on a competitive football team.”
Given that outside of that 5-game stretch in 2016 we’ve had nothing but losing seasons, I’d say you’re onto something LC. But that CBS piece could’ve been a little more objective. For instance, which side of the football got the lion’s share of the money, offense or defense? Last year it was $100 mil for the offense & $60 mil for the defense … pretty significant differential IMO. And when was the last time you heard anyone push for ‘Weapons for LVD’?
Which side of the ball has had the most turnover during those 5 years, offense or defense? (We both know the answer to that one). Bucs defense was a revolving door of FAs.
Which side of the ball had the worst coaches, offense or defense? (Jameis has had only TWO OCs in his 5-year stint with us … BOTH are considered to be quite good as OCs & BOTH employ a similar offensive attack. Want to say the same thing for the defense? Or even for the S/Ts?
Nah, CBS needs to level the playing field BEFORE they go praising one side of the ball over the other. You don’t go 17-31 in the past 3 years and 32-48 in the past 5 years because you had an All-Pro QB … or All-Pro anything else.
February 13th, 2020 at 1:42 pm
There just isn’t any true hope as long as the team continues to trot out a qb that basically forces your team to play 12 on 10 nearly every time he drops back to pass…
Imagine being pinned down in a fox whole in the heat of battle only to figure out that the guy in there with you is really on your enemies side..
Or
the person leading you through enemy territory is actually leading you into an ambush…
That must be similar to how it feels being forced to play with JW!
February 13th, 2020 at 1:59 pm
This team defense cant beat back up QBs lol. Stop with the defense is good narrative. Its false
February 13th, 2020 at 2:23 pm
I legitimately hope you’re wrong Mr. Ira. The last thing this team needs is more false bravado and ego driven stat chasing from the QB position.
February 13th, 2020 at 2:39 pm
What up with this news joe
Feb 3 2020
TB K. Beckwith Reinstated
February 13th, 2020 at 2:48 pm
30 ints. were good fortune. Opposing teams dropped 15 more.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:07 pm
LaMarcus Says:
February 13th, 2020 at 1:59 pm
This team defense cant beat back up QBs lol. Stop with the defense is good narrative. Its false
It was a false narrative. The defense started trending upwards in the second half of the season last year. If we can retain the personnel, improve in depth a bit and go into the next season healthy, it only stands to continue playing better.
That said, in the second half of the year when the D played better, Jameis played worse. He had 18 picks in the last 8 games, so while the rest of the team was trying to win, he was trying to give away the farm.
The only false narrative here is Jameis being worth big money. I’d offer him $14M with an additional $1M incentive for every game he has with zero turnovers.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:14 pm
Matthew Fifer Says:
February 13th, 2020 at 3:07 pm
LaMarcus Says:
February 13th, 2020 at 1:59 pm
This team defense cant beat back up QBs lol. Stop with the defense is good narrative. Its false
It was a false narrative. The defense started trending upwards in the second half of the season last year. If we can retain the personnel, improve in depth a bit and go into the next season healthy, it only stands to continue playing better.
That said, in the second half of the year when the D played better, Jameis played worse. He had 18 picks in the last 8 games, so while the rest of the team was trying to win, he was trying to give away the farm.
The only false narrative here is Jameis being worth big money. I’d offer him $14M with an additional $1M incentive for every game he has with zero turnovers.
So you don’t think the fact the guys he was playing with earlier in the year were not playing at the end of the year contributed to the picks going up?
February 13th, 2020 at 3:20 pm
@Defense Rules
I don’t really see why the $$ matters that much for the point of that article.
That would only show how bad we’ve been at building teams & defenses which is reflected in the statistical breakdown. THat’d be a good data point for an article on bad team building.
The whole point I got out of that is just that Winston went to a situation in which rarely any QB would have much success. Winston’s turnovers have nothing to do with other QB’s having the #2 ranked passer rating against our defense vs any other defense the last 5 years – regardless of how $$ is allocated to the team.
I don’t care if you have a team that puts all the $$ into skill players & offensive players. If the defense sucks to the level that has been typical the last 5 years that team and the offense are going to have a lot of issues regardless.
Think of the dream team Eagles or other teams that had a bunch of big name skill players but were not built correctly and the offenses flopped despite probably having high Madden grades across the board.
@813
I agree it was bad already. But if he finished with say like 34 TD / 25 INT and went 7-1 winning those last 2 games I’m pretty sure we’re all here acting OK if he gets an extension. Not only that but we’re probably all feelin good about next season.
Those last 2 games with 6 picks were about as bad as it could have gone to end the year and leave a crap taste in all our mouths. And that’s scary with knowing Houston was supposed to be a playoff type game.
Praying for us all lol.
GO BUCS
February 13th, 2020 at 3:35 pm
When the defense turned it around Jameis was 5-3, with just Godwin it would have been 7-1, not even talking about the fractured thumb.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:38 pm
Ndog Says:
So you don’t think the fact the guys he was playing with earlier in the year were not playing at the end of the year contributed to the picks going up?
Sure don’t, he was only fully without Evans and/or Godwin for 2 full games. That means he had one or both of them in the previous 6 and threw 12 picks in those games.
Plus if you watch the “Jameis Winston Conundum” by “Set the Edge” on YT, he lays out that 19 of the 30 picks he threw this season were without question absolutely Jameis’s fault. Of those 19, 13 of them occurred in the final 8 games.
February 13th, 2020 at 3:43 pm
So you don’t think the fact the guys he was playing with earlier in the year were not playing at the end of the year contributed to the picks going up?
nawl….its not like mike and chris missing the last 8games….lol…
he had 24 INTs before those 2 were out…..even if he doesnt have those extra 6INTs and he finishes the season with 24INTs, he still would be the league leader in INTs…..
GO BUCS!!!!!
February 13th, 2020 at 3:47 pm
LC
you’re right….
we win those last 2 games with JW beating the texans(a playoff team) and sweep the falcons, its a different story….
funny how winning those 2 games wouldve made folks forget(maybe) all about the 9ers and london game…..
GO BUCS!!!!!
February 13th, 2020 at 3:54 pm
If we keep Jameis I pray lasix helps and vision was a problem. People laugh but if you cant see who you are throwing to well……
February 13th, 2020 at 3:54 pm
Lord C … The money only matters because when you do a mediocre job of drafting & developing your OWN talent, you get forced to spend $$$ on quality FAs to ‘fill in the holes’ that result. And if you don’t have the $$$ to spend, you typically (but not always) get lesser quality in your FAs. Example: Swaggy Baker or Beau Allen versus Ndamukong Suh (the latter was a much better, albeit costlier, fit?).
And you’re right LC, to a larger extent it does show how poorly we’ve done at TEAM BUILDING over the years. But how many times have we heard Joe & others yell about the abysmal Bucs’ pass rush … UNTIL we focused our priorities AND money on that. Assuming that we can re-sign our UFAs, just 4 players on our defense (JPP, Shaq, Suh & Vea) will probably cost us about half of our defensive payroll. Considering that’s only one-sixth of our defensive roster, that’s a pretty big commitment. But well worth it IMO, because they all represent QUALITY TALENT.
February 13th, 2020 at 5:33 pm
@DR
Agree. I just think the whole cap allocation issue / team building issue is a different topic vs what the CBS guy was illustrating.
In general I think there are all sorts of different cap situations that have produced winning teams. It’s typically an ebb & flow of timing. I..e. if you draft heavily on defense for 2-3 years and those players become the core of your defense, then you’re going to save a lot of cap space on that side of the ball, and likely be overspending on offense, and vice versa.
In general just knowing that DE/DT/OT all cost a ton of $$ in FA, and knowing that OT/OG are super hard to find in FA because everyone wants them, it seems obvious that you need to stress those positions early in your drafts consistently.
Jason Licht / The Bucs / whatever idiot has been making decisions the last 6 years, have not understood this:
Round 1 positional picks: WR / QB / CB / TE / DT / LB (only 1/3 of those picks on premium positions)
Round 2 positional picks: TE / OT / OG / DE / K / S / RB / CB / CB / CB (again 1/3 picks on premium positions)
Round 3 positional picks: RB / WR / OT / CB / S (1 in 5)
You build your teams in those first 3 rounds. Our idiot run franchise has drafted compltely backwards to any legit team building philosophy.
premium positions investment (6 total):
1 QB
2 OT
1 OG
1 DT
1 DE
non-premium investment (15 total):
5 CB
2 S
2 RB
2 TE
2 WR
1 LB
1 K
THIS ISN’T ROCKET SCIENCE. DOES ANYONE FROM THE ORGANIZATION READ THIS WEBSITE? HAVE THEY HEARD OF LUVMYBUCS? HAVE THEY DONE EVEN THE SLIGHTEST RESEARCH ON HOW SUCCESFULL TEAMS ARE BUILT?
February 13th, 2020 at 5:37 pm
The “defense sucked” narrative is like saying “water is wet”! These are KNOWN variables. Same with the run game and kicker. The lone caveat is that the QB has a specific role, a large one!
We haven’t had a good TEAM since Chucky. This is NOT a revelation. However, it doesn’t dispel the FACT that Jameis Winston OWNS the most dubious of records. While we can disassemble and critique every little play and assign blame, he is not without fault. As much as the defense, run game, and kicker are responsible, so too is the QB.
In other words, Jameis is as responsible for us losing as the rest of the team. There is no way that someone who has watched games since 2015 can argue that Jameis Winston cost us games, no way!
Objectively, either you live with the turnovers and hope that your defense can overcome them or you simply move on. THAT, in a nutshell, is the great debate!
February 13th, 2020 at 5:39 pm
“Winston DIDN’T cost us games”
February 13th, 2020 at 7:59 pm
Lord C … “You build your teams in those first 3 rounds. Our idiot run franchise has drafted completely backwards to any legit team building philosophy.”
Yea verily, unfortunately, although I’m willing to stretch that to the first 4 rounds (in some years). Certain 4th Rnd players like Jordan Whitehead, Kwon Alexander, Mike Williams & Dexter Jackson have done well for us, but they’re admittedly the exception rather than the rule.
February 13th, 2020 at 8:54 pm
LOVE! ABSOLUTELY LOVE this thread.
February 13th, 2020 at 9:23 pm
LC ISNT IT AMAZING HOW NOW MATTER HOW MUCH EVIDENCE IS.PRESENTED, THE HATERS STILL.CONTINUE TO SUGGEAT THAT HE IS THE TOP REASON FOR THE TEAMS LOSING WAYS?
IDIOTS
February 13th, 2020 at 9:33 pm
Jameis had 19 TDs to 1 INT inside the redzone last season.