The Future Of Jameis
December 6th, 2019
2020 status.
Those that listen to “The Ira Kaufman Podcast” know there are sharp differing opinions when it comes to Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston.
Ira is of the mind to turn Jameis loose because of a lack of wins and because of his turnovers. Joe has argued that unless you draft a quarterback to succeed Jameis, then you keep Jameis because there won’t be any free agent quarterbacks better than him.
Joe firmly subscribes to the Raheem Morris mantra of “I will tolerate you until I can replace you.” Besides, Jameis is the best quarterback not named “Steve Young” this franchise has ever had.
And how did that work out when the Bucs washed their hands of Young?
It seems a documented anti-Jameis guy is of the same mind as Joe.
Follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN, a spreadsheeter, has surveyed the NFL horizon and like Joe, he doesn’t see any potential free agent quarterbacks that would both be an upgrade and be able to execute Byron Leftwich’s Bucco Bruce Arians’ offense.
Therefore, Barnwell believes, who will be taking snaps for the Bucs behind center when the 2020 season opens?
Jameis.
At the same time, though, there just aren’t many quarterbacks who seem like great fits for Arians’ downfield passing attack likely to hit the market. The Bucs could wait to see whether they find that sort of quarterback in the draft, but the 67-year-old Arians didn’t join Tampa to start a rebuild, and the Bucs would run the risk of ending up without a veteran starter or a quarterback of the future. Given the tepid market Winston would likely see if he did hit free agency, my guess is that the two sides come to terms on a multiyear deal to keep him around for 2020 with no guaranteed money afterward.
Most likely 2020 status: Bucs starter. If Cam Newton were to become available, the Bucs might rightfully prefer him and his pre-surgery upside in a downfield passing attack to Winston’s inconsistency. Identifying possible Winston suitors is virtually impossible given that there are teams that will rule him out because of his off-field history.
Of course, there is an option here that we all are overlooking. That is a potential trade.
Now Joe has no clue who would want to trade a good quarterback to the Bucs. Generally, the only teams that would do that will either start playing for the draft early like Miami did, or have a quarterback ready to go.
Does Arians really think he can resurrect old man Eli Manning?
December 6th, 2019 at 5:16 am
BA has his “whispering” legacy to protect.
He’ll keep JW another year to try and clean him up.
If it doesn’t work next year, look for BA to retire.
December 6th, 2019 at 5:40 am
A team friendly contract is where we are going here….and I agree that the market would be “tepid” for Jameis because of his inconsistency & off-field history.
Most teams needing a QB will address that in the draft….
I’m rooting for Jameis to succeed….as I do all Buc players.
December 6th, 2019 at 5:51 am
I knew when I saw that agenda driven article on BSPN it would undoubtedly find it’s way onto this site.
December 6th, 2019 at 5:54 am
I just can’t see bringing Jameis back. He’s as likely to turn the ball over as he is throw a TD pass, and he can’t even complete 60% of his passes. That’s just not worth over $20mil a year on a long term contract.
I would look to bring in a vet like Bridgewater on a 3yr ($45-$50mil) deal….he’s making $12.5 this year in N.O. Then draft a young QB in April (Burrow will be long no gone, but guys like Herbert, Eason, Fromm and Jalen Hurts will be in play). Then use the money saved to extend guys like Godwin, Suh and Barrett, upgrade the O-Line, and draft a good young RB.
I think everyone will be shocked to see what a more accurate, less turnover prone passer can do with the weapons this team has!
December 6th, 2019 at 5:58 am
I’m with you Jeagan!
December 6th, 2019 at 5:59 am
TBBF: totally agree.. 3 options FA weak. draft, top 10 only, team friendly contract, most likely.
December 6th, 2019 at 6:00 am
Same as his past, IMO…certainly not a gunslinger…certainly not a QB that can carry a team on his shoulders to victory…Jameis is a Goldilocks QB…everything has to be just right for him to win…and then he can still screw it up
MoveOn.Bucs
a 1st round QB is the BEST BANG for cap $$$$$$ in the NFL
December 6th, 2019 at 6:06 am
Could not of said it any better Jeagan. Any chance you could be our General Manager for our Tampa Bay Bucs.
December 6th, 2019 at 6:15 am
These Jameis articles are becoming Clash-like in their content!
“Should I stay or should I go now
If I go there will be trouble
If I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
The indecision’s bugging me…”
December 6th, 2019 at 6:20 am
PLEASE don’t sign pouty Cam Newton! That would be a tremendous downgrade in my opinion and besides we don’t need a quarterback who quits at the first sign of adversity.
December 6th, 2019 at 6:25 am
-Jeagan
Bridgewater is a nice player but don’t think he fits the downfield passing attack of Arians. Bridgewater is more of a dink and dunk QB as opposed to a vertical passer. Nothing wrong with that but is not BA’s offense or how the team was drafted. JW will be back, the question is can we get him an O Line & running game. while keeping D in tact w addition of 1 Veteran CB. then let’s see what we can do, not sure if possible with CAP but think that could work.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:06 am
I’m just as sick as everyone else with the turnovers but at the end of the day I’m with JOE. I believe if you give Winston a better defense like they have bin playing the past couple games an upgrade the run game an this team will win with WINSTON just like they have bin even with a suspect run game. Sorry IRA but there’s no QB out there that could have won games here the past 5 seasons with how terribly horrible this rotten defense has played an that’s putting it a nice way. #DEFENSEMATTERS. Give Winston one more year a prove it deal with THE QB whisper an see if he can’t fix Winston. 1 offseason an season isn’t enough time with BA
December 6th, 2019 at 7:14 am
Last time I looked, there are ten QBs drafted since Jameis with a higher QB ranking. Draft someone with potential (always a gamble), offer Jameis a low ball two year contract (one year guaranteed) and spread your savings around, keeping proven players and strengthening weak spots.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:24 am
“”KOBE FAKER AND THE LAKELAND CHAPTER
Representing the 1861 total Tampa bay Bucsfans
Has filed a class action lawsuit against Roger Goodell and the other 31 owners
We demand our Tampa bay football tesm and our 5-7 record immediately be in the the NFC eastern division. Our city and football club is physically located on the eastern coast of this great country. We are adamant that it is a travesty that the city and the team of Dallas is in this eastern division while we are not.
Our 5-7 record is leading the NFC eastern division and if our record is better than Phi,Wash,or NY Giants in 4 weeks, we demand the Tampa Bay Buccaneers team to be in the playoffs
Kobe Faker will update this class action lawsuit here at JBF”
Kobe Faker
December 6th, 2019 at 7:25 am
They should sign him to a big time multi year deal.
6 years, 150 Mil (100 million garaunteed though the first four years).
He’s only 25 years old, and he’s set to lead the league in passing yards. He’s already reset almost all the career quarterback records In Tampa while playing on some terrible teams. Lock him up and worry about something else (like a consistently good running game or defense)
As the cap continues to increase, 25 mil/yr for a pro bowl level QB will be perceived as a bargain.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:35 am
Eli Manning is the only name I can think of. But he’s a statue. Behind this line? Ugh.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:36 am
Jeagan is factually incorrect , JW is over 60% completions . LaRue is a racist , so he doesn’t count at all.
JW is one of the top two most explosive passers in the league in most all yardage related and TD related QB stats. Where you see a huge difference in JW and say Dak Prescott is in sacks , JW has 40 and Dak has only 15 and a very good running game with Zeke.
Sorry to dissapoint the haters , but Winston will be back for at least one more year.
Merry Christmas and beat the Colts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 6th, 2019 at 7:36 am
The scary part of this statement “the 67-year-old Arians didn’t join Tampa to start a rebuild” is that what happens if Winston sh!ts the bed? Gets injured? Throws over 20/30 INT’s. Who will Ariens have take us forward as a team? Gabbert? Hahaha! We should all hope not. Yes. One person does not make a team. I know. Will this be what sends Arians over the fence into retirement again? Because it is the only way he and Licht can save face? This looks like it might blow up in our(the fans) faces. Do we keep the QB who has set and keeps setting Team records to go along with NFL records. But can not do what those other QB’S who had a similar INT numbers did. Win NFL games. This is not the ACC. How long do we have to wait until all that NFL PRO knowledge ready actually shows up in WINS for our team? Will the fan base even care by then? Going to be season six if he is here next season. What happens if we get the same we got this season?
December 6th, 2019 at 7:41 am
Anybody that considers drafting Hurts shouldnt be taken seriously. Mike Gundy said it best he is running a modern version of the wishbone. Jake From doesnt have the arm strength you would want in a franchise QB.
Burrow, Tua and Herbert will be gone before we draft. If that is the case Jordan Love and K.J. from standford needs to be grabbed in the later rounds. However you extend JW for 2-3 years making the last year a team option you see if those two develop they both have a lot of upside to them. Both have the arm talent to potentially be great QB’s especially for B.A.’s offense.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:51 am
If the Bucs would’ve cut Jameis after Uber gate, there’s a good chance he’d be out of the league. He owes us a 2,3 yr prove it deal. No way is he worth top money. However it goes, the Bucs would be wise to use a high pick on a QB this year, because we have nothing behind Jameis. Gabbert? Griff is a FA, we need a QB. Things haven’t exactly worked out with Jameis thus far. We would be wise to bring a young talented arm in who could compete. A guy like Hurts could also run some plays even if Jameis is the starter. Pushing all the chips into the middle of the table for Jameis isn’t a wise bet. Better have a fall back plan.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:54 am
As I’ve said before..I hope Jameis can play like a franchise QB the rest of the season, and receive an extension. Personally I’d like to see one year, and having us bring in a quality backup in case he falters…Either a ready to go vet, or a first or second round draft pick. We can’t be afraid that he can’t mentally deal with the strain of a quality backup. If he continues to grow the rest of this year, and plays like a franchise QB consistently next year, give him the big contract. And if not, give the quality back up a chance. We can not lock up a question mark for multiple years…and we can’t fail to have a backup plan should he stagnate or falter.
When it looked like we might have a top five pick, I thought we might roll the dice and let him go. And if we run a losing streak the next few games, that might still be in the offing. But if we win half our remaining games or three out of four the rest of the year, I think that will be the strategy.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:55 am
Pete Mitchell BINGO, you sir are the winner!!!!
December 6th, 2019 at 7:57 am
Jeagan – Actually he is throwing over 60% completions this season. Actually well above 60% in 5 of his last 6 games. He is passing in a vertical attack with a very strong average yards per completion. He has thrown above 60% every year in the league and now his has climbed above it once again in 2017. In a dink and dunk offense 60% would be bad. In this type of offense it is ok. You focus on the completions (even though your numbers are wrong) and simply ignore he is near the league lead in both yardage and scoring. Go have a Hateraide and have a seat please.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:59 am
The key to the entire article is this piece
“there just aren’t many quarterbacks who seem like great fits for Arians’ downfield passing attack”
This is what people don’t understand, in this offense the QB is being asked to do things completely differently than most QBs in the NFL. You people say Bridgewater, do you remember the TWO plays we got near him. A dropped pick and a half role out where he threw the ball out of bounds. So now think about him having to hold the ball almost every play waiting for plays to develop downfield behind our Oline. Yeah that would go well. Guys get a CLUE!!!
December 6th, 2019 at 8:04 am
They might prefer Cam cuz of Jameis’ inconsistency? Lol Even at his best Cam is inconsistent himself.
December 6th, 2019 at 8:11 am
cont.
“…If you don’t want me, set me free
Exactly whom I’m supposed to be…
Should I stay or should I go now?”
The Clash (You’re welcome 80’s brethren!)
December 6th, 2019 at 8:12 am
Lmfao @Cam Newton over Jameis.
December 6th, 2019 at 8:13 am
The more advanced metrics that are out there ultimately show that Jay-Miss is a below average QB. Only those stuck in the 1990s (and prior) think that yards thrown is something special and that fumbles/INTs don’t matter.
I don’t think the Bucs are that far away as a team from being a real contender and it’s better to stick with the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t. For that reason the Bucs should franchise the guy for a year to let him and the rest of the world know that the team needs him but he’s not good enough for a long term deal.
December 6th, 2019 at 8:39 am
NFL.com has him as the 25th ranked QB in the NFL, one spot below Fitzmagic, in their latest QB Index.
Like I said, below average.
December 6th, 2019 at 8:47 am
Sometimes I am left with the conclusion that some of you guys just hate Jameis because of his race, religion, or college team of origin, or that he is no Rodgers or Mahomes. And that some of you love Jameis for the same reasons, but for the QB’s I mentioned, and that you only care about his financial future, and not whether the Bucs have a competitive team in the future.
Then the rest of us hope he plays like the guy we thought we drafted, and not like the guy that will at best lead us to one playoff game and out. Were it not for a salary cap, we would say, let it fly…it is the G mens money, not ours. But in this day of cap consequences, overpaying for a second tier QB is one of the biggest cap mistakes a team can make. So we hope the right decision is made. And the answers will come from the play of Jameis, I think, if Arians is a top flight evaluator. And not from any of us, including Joe.
December 6th, 2019 at 8:54 am
same story, different year. $hits the bed until the season is over then looks good come end of the year….but it to little loo late. dump him and get a real QB.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:03 am
I guess it come down to dollars. I would pass on JW but even his biggest supports like gilhealy would say Jameis is elite, he needs his 2 pro bowl recievers, his 2 stud tight ends, take the o line from average to great and replace his average backs with great backs and improve the D… then #3 will be great. Well, same can be said for Cousins, Dalton, Jacoby Brissett, and about every other NFL qb. So then it comes down to money for other assets. Can you get Jameis to sign a below market contract with incentives so you can spend elsewhere? Maybe he likes BA and thinks he can sign something that pays him good now and he can be free in 3 years. Will be crazy this off season because you could see 10 guys starting today switching teams in the spring.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:03 am
Bridgewater’s greatest strength is being a deep ball passer; look what he did at Louisville and then also in HS and the offense he ran with the weapons he had at both stops. He went to the NFL and ran the west coast and it was not his style and payton has his own version of the west coast to help his qbs get the most out of them. The best college qb t=in the draft is going to be jacob eason and the bucs might have a shot at him unless he sky rockets up. Let winston walk or ty and walk and use all the money to build the defense starting with franchising bvarrett
December 6th, 2019 at 9:22 am
With no running game to speak of defenses can just sit on the passing game and with a mid to lower O-line he also has not had the best of protection so has to rush throws and has more down field coverage with no stacking of the box. Now here is where someone will disagree but Mike Evans while great is not a burner so you dont need over the top safety help like you would on a Tyreek Hill or Julio Jones so you can pretty much 1 cover him and leave the safety and LB’s to just look to be aggressive. I honestly believe if you draft a legit dual threat back and add 2 OL’s, Jamies turnovers would decrease as defenses cannot sit back on the passing game. Where Jamies does have fault is staring down receivers and less than accurate deep ball but i do think its due to lack of time in the pocket.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:25 am
@ Miken…so give him the best WR, best TE’s, best O line and he can be a good qb……… duh. WTF man?
and for the record joe would stick with him through anything.
dump the bum and get someone who can see the field………without squinting lol
December 6th, 2019 at 9:27 am
@petemitchell… JW would want to be locked up that long but #’s look right. Both sides would probably do 4yrs 100 maybe? That way, if he looks the same as he did his first 5years, the Bucs would cut him after 2 years and if he became a reliable star, the he would be free to get a mega contract after 4 more years.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:27 am
So now to update for the last four years plus twelve games since 2015:
Win the TO battle: 21 – 6
Tie the TO battle: 4 – 7
Lose the TO battle: 5 – 33
More than 3 TOs: 2 – 18
Points scored matter, turnovers matter, total yards not so much.
tickrdr
AKA “clueless fan”
BTW: Please note that nothing else about the team was different. They didn’t import a new defense, nor a new running back, kicker, coaches, play only at home, or in temps > 40 degrees etc.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:36 am
Stats from “How to Profit Handicapping NFL Turnover Differential”.
Turnover Differential +1 = 68.4% win percentage
Turnover Differential +2 = 82.3% win percentage
Turnover Differential +3 = 91.4% win percentage
Turnover Differential +4 or more = 97.3% win percentage
Total (+1 or better) = 78.8% win percentage
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 9:37 am
Miken – despite and bad o-line, virtually no running game, and a historically bad defense the past 2.5 years, he is producing at a high level.
D-Rome – the team is 3rd in the league in scoring. Is scoring an antiquated way to measure a QBs effectiveness? I would say that is the best and only true way to measure a QB. He doesn’t play defense or kick field goals. All he can do is try to score more points than the other team. It is up to the defense to stop the other team from scoring more points. 28 points per game should be enough to have a winning record.
December 6th, 2019 at 9:54 am
Pete Mitchell is absolutely correct. We need to sign him now to a 4 or 5 year now. If we franchise him, we will have to pay him 10-15 million dollars more. These 1 year deals worked out great for the Bucs this year, except for the fact that these guys have absolutely taken advantage of their situation. Now we are going to have to pay up. Jameis is absolutely worth 25-28 year. NOBODY is worth 40 million because you eat up 1/5 of the cap for 1 player.
Now Jason Licht- listen up in case you are on here with a burner account.
Rd1-LT and move DS76 to RT. If he won’t move- trade his selfish a$$.
Rd 2- DT or DE-best available at the position
Rd 3- Get the little RB from LSU- he can do everything and you passed on Kamara and Kareem Hunt among countless others. Don’t miss on this guy. RoJo is our homer hitter, we need a true duel threat.
Rd 4- Center- Jensen isn’t getting younger or cheaper, pick the nastiest sumb*tch
in this draft.
Rd 5-7 Don’t care- get freaking athletes!!!!!
JMO
December 6th, 2019 at 9:56 am
TD Tampa Bay.. some truth to your scoring angle…but I could just as well say that you can only judge a D with a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over often, give up pick sixes, and short field positions for the opposing offense. But all I seem to read on the site is how bad the D is without consideration of such things, not including the demoralizing aspect attached to the turnovers and such.
Why do you guys insist on only looking at the stats in the way most favorable to your arguments?
It is all part of a mix. And I believe Arians knows that.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:01 am
Bridgewater would die behind this O-Line!
Lok at all the QBs that everyone pointed to last year as people they would rather have than JW3.
Fitz-LMAO
Flacco
Wentz
Goff
Foles
Stafford
and this year
Daniel Jones-LOL
Kyle Allen- LOL
Darnold-LOL
Rivers-LOL
EVERY ONE of those guys would die behind this current line.
If you are going to improve the o-line- JW deserves the chance to succeed or fail behind it. PERIOD!!
December 6th, 2019 at 10:08 am
Best case scenario for JW and the Bucs
3 – year team friendly deal
45 Million (with 25 guaranteed)
1st year 15 mil (all guaranteed)
2nd year 12 mil (10 guaranteed)
3rd year 18 mil no guarantee with a team option
That keeps his number down to open up the check book for Shaq, JPP and Godwin. Would be nice to keep Suh and Nassib (with the raised cap this is possible)
Then in FA/Draft you look for LT/RT/RB/RG and S
Franchise tag of 27 million is way to high and would cripple this team.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:09 am
lol Kobe bringing the chuckles, wish we played in that NFC east joke division right now too but I wouldn’t want our guys playing that many winter games.
I think the play is resign Jameis short term and draft a rookie that can come in and develop, maybe compete right away. For the first time in a while there seems to be a mob of teams that have holes, question marks, and shaky players at the QB position. I think FA guys like Teddy will be way over-bid this offseason and won’t be worth it. I also think there will be a lot of hungry teams who may overdraft QBs too. We need to be patient and strike only if there’s a good deal in FA (unlikely) or when a QB is available in the draft where his value roughly matches draft position (hopefully Rnd 1 or 2). We don’t have the draft capital to gun up the board to take the top guys and we can’t afford to sell the future to get one. I would endorse best QB available Rnd 2 and I wouldn’t be mad if they traded up slightly in Rnd 2 to get a specific guy for a decent price.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:10 am
Before BA took control I was looking for a game manager solution at QB. Now I see that this is not Arians’ number one criteria for his quarterback.
BL is on the same page as BA in his offensive thinking. That is why he is the OC. He is running BA’s offense. The downfield stuff is all BA.
Arians and his coaches will try to build the “complimentary” supporting team around JW. They will continue to try to retrain JW on game management as much as possible. This includes reducing interceptions and turnovers to be a little more specific.
However, that is apparently not BA’s highest priority. He will take what he can get. Jameis fits his scheme after looking at the pluses and minuses. This is my assessment of BA’ thinking. I make no claims as a mind reader. This is my conclusions based on this past year.
This is why I expect JW to be under center next year.
We all will soon find out.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:18 am
@TDTB:
How many teams in the NFL are favored by MORE than one touchdown?
You say 28 PPG should be enough to have a winning record?
Should they win the game when the opponents have been gifted a “free” TD with a pick6, which has happened FOUR times this year already.
Should they prevent scores when the opponents are given the ball at the Tampa 10 and 6 yard lines vs. Tenn?
Should they prevent scores when the opponents were given the ball at the Tampa 36, 27, 17 and 8 yard lines vs. Car (London)?
The Bucs turn the ball over on 18.2% of all of their drives, and far too often in their own territory, resulting in short fields for the opponents.
COMPLEMENTARY ( not complimentary) football requires giving your defense at least a fighting chance.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 10:21 am
Complementary is the correct the correct spelling for what I meant.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:22 am
Pete Mitchel and Ndog articulate the best supporting arguments for seeing Winston as our long term QB.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:33 am
Since 2015, the Bucs’ offense has been very good at turning the ball over.
INTS and Fumbles lost = Giveaways
2015 = 28 giveaways (8th worst in league)
2016 = 27 giveaways (8th worst in league)
2017 = 27 giveaways (6th worst in league)
2018 = 35 giveaways (THE WORST in league)
2019 = 28 giveaways so far (2nd worst in league)
Since 2015, the no good, terrible, rotten Bucs’ defense has also pretty good at taking the ball from their opponents.
INTs and Fumbles recovered = Takeaways
2015 = 23 (18th best in league)
2016 = 29 (3rd best in league), and largely why the Bucs went 9 – 7 that year.
2017 = 26 (8th best in league)
2018 = 17 (26th best in league)
2019 = 21 so far (5th best in league)
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 10:35 am
“teams that will rule him out because of his off-field history.” The Bucs SHOULD be one of those teams, dammmmit.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:43 am
@JimbobBucsfan:
I most definitely was NOT aiming at you.
I realize that no one here will change their opinion one way or the other re: anything I have to type about the Bucs.
My purpose here is only to inform, as I suspect that many “lurkers” who don’t post, might be surprised, if not intrigued by my musings.
As always everyone is free to simply ignore and scroll past my posts.
I am slowly adding to my list of posters that I simply scroll past, as that is saving a considerable amount of time that I no longer waste on JBF.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 10:53 am
Here is my best example of how turnover differential MATTERS:
The 2012 Kansas City Chiefs went 2 – 14 with a turnover differential of -24.
The 2013 Kansas City Chiefs went 11 – 5 with a turnover differential of +18!
In 2012, Matt Cassell and Brady Quinn combined for 23 turnovers. (TO%=18.8)
In 2013, they acquired a game manager QB that everyone loves to hate named Alex Smith, whod had only 7 total turnovers for that year.
So, the Bucs and Jameis Winston are getting WORSE at turning the ball over every year, yet there is this continued debate??? Interesting to say the least.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 10:54 am
I posted this recently but I just want to remind people that when you are looking at defensive TOTAL stats (such as TOs & sacks), that they can be misleading.
Not attacking you tickrdr, I just think it would be more valuable to see the turnover rates per drive over the years rather than the totals.
At least for this year, the large volume of takeaways and giveaways can be somewhat attributed to the volume of plays run in Bucs games (we are 2nd in league for total plays per game). We know our turnover rate per drive is bad on offense but I have a feeling our turnover rate on defense isn’t as good as we think it is/was over the last 5 years.
December 6th, 2019 at 10:56 am
Thank you, tickrdr!
Excellent, excellent data and posts. I always read your takes and your point about turnover battle and record is spot on. Amen. Thanks for posting such excellent points.
December 6th, 2019 at 11:14 am
You know what other QB FAILS at Arians’ “Downfield Passing Attack”?
Jameis Winston.
His huge INT numbers, low completion %, and bad decisions PROVE that Jameis shouldn’t be in any sort of “Downfield” passing attack.
If you can’t read Defenses fast and know to checkdown right away, you’re certainly not going to have a lot of success holding the ball a long time trying to give yourself more time to figure it out.
YARDS, YARDS, YARDS. Get over it. Total yards don’t prove anything. There’s a reason so many NFL analysts still rank Winston at like 25th in the league out of all starters. He ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in multiple QB rating formulas.
Time to move on.
December 6th, 2019 at 11:14 am
I think they should sign Jameis to a multi-year deal. I enjoy laughing every other sunday at his antics. Throwing pick sixes, fumbling the ball when no one touches him, throwing left handed passes and completing them total entertainment. Its not about winning its all about reality T.V. HAHAHAHA.
December 6th, 2019 at 11:17 am
CONTINUED…
When you’re in the top 2 of Attempts you’re going to be near the top in Yards too. Again, doesn’t mean anything.
EFFICIENCY in the NFL matters. So does protecting the football.
I’ve said it a million times…
One of the most important mathematical factors that can predict victories in football is Starting Field Position. The Bucs rank 30th in the NFL for this stat due to Winston’s turnovers. Enough said.
December 6th, 2019 at 11:20 am
@tickdr
I love stats. To add a twist & additional context to your breakdown that you are missing:
Our offense has turned it over 10 more times than the league average, but they also are top 4 in scoring at 28.3 PPG.
Our defense has created 5 more turnovers than the league average, but they are also bottom 3 in scoring at 28.8 PPG.
I haven’t updated this since about a week or so ago, but when I last calculated it, the Bucs defense, when taking away ALL the points off ANY turnovers by the offense
was still bottom 1/3. Would still not even be close to average.
It’s cool they have 5 more turnovers than an average NFL team 12 games in, and that gives them a good ranking in 1 category, but 5 additional turnovers across 12 games doesn’t make up for giving up a TD or more per game extra than an average NFL defense.
The defense of the last 2 weeks is legit – all being said.
December 6th, 2019 at 11:24 am
tickrdr- How dare you sir?! How dare you amuse us with your “musings”! You of all people should know that facts are irrelevant and that statistics can be manipulated!
You’re just another “hater”! LOL!
December 6th, 2019 at 12:13 pm
JAMEIS ALERT:
“Bad Jameis” is due to make an appearance very soon.
December 6th, 2019 at 12:29 pm
All ever hear from that kind of talk is fear, acting scared, which always makes to poor business decisions..
Who is better? Several! Because if JW was good, he would be worthy to have already signed and the fan base wouldn’t be divided as it is…
Squinty eyed, fumbler, holds the ball to long, can’t read defenses, int tossing, Jabroni Winston isn’t a winner… Sure, if you like circuses, clown show, then he is your guy.. no question..
If you want wins, playoffs, possibly Super Bowl in the next 10 years you drop him and move on… But staying with one of the league bottom QBs is Loser mindset to go right along with the culture…
No respectable, winning coach is going to put up with QB, RB, wr, or any other player that in every game puts the win in jeopardy from lack of ball security… JW would not last under Saban, Bilecheck or any coaches of that caliber… But then again, the Bucs aren’t winners so when would they ever land that caliber of a coach!
December 6th, 2019 at 1:04 pm
It all comes down to ONE thing.
If Jason Licht stays and doesn’t get fired then Jameis stays. …PERIOD. He’s pretty much stated that with his burner account.
December 6th, 2019 at 1:18 pm
@SteveK:
Thank you very much, and a hat tip to you, sir!
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 1:26 pm
I think if the Bucs can shore up a few positions, an elite CB a couple high-quality OL, and a legit 3rd WR who can slice up the short zones like Humphries did and also be big_time return man, then you will have the makings of a playoff team next year.
The offensive philosophy and playcalling will need a lot improvement. Need to keep defenses off-balance by mixing up calls and attacking weaknesses.
Thats’s why I think Winston could really thrive in 2020–he will still makes bone-headed mistakes that will directly lead to a few losses, but overall, he can lead this team to the playoffs… He nearly did in his 2nd year were it not for the Bucs’ worst defense in the league.
December 6th, 2019 at 1:29 pm
You clowns sure are entertaining. Look once a QB throws 3 interceptions and the game is out of hand does it matter if he throws 2 more in the last 3 minutes?
Football is like match play in golf. It is week to week and hole to hole. You clowns with the turnover stats are using them like stroke play in golf if you even know what that is. The NFL season is not a tournament. It is a week to week matchup play affair. Doesn’t matter is you lose the week/hole by 1 point or 20 points by 1 shot or 5 shots a loss is a loss. Learn the difference.
December 6th, 2019 at 1:47 pm
@Lord Cornelius says:
I haven’t updated this since about a week or so ago, but when I last calculated it, the Bucs defense, when taking away ALL the points off ANY turnovers by the offense was still bottom 1/3. Would still not even be close to average.
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Here are my calculations to date. Please correct with better calculations.
After 12 games, 346 points (30th in the league) have been allowed by the Bucs’ defense, or have they?
346
-28 for 4 pick sixes thrown by Jameis this year.
318 points (26th in league)
-20 for two TDs and two FGs off TO’s in London vs. Carolina
298 points (24th in league)
-14 for two TDs vs. Tenn, starting from Bucs 10 and 6 yardlines after TOs.
284 points (20th in league)
-3 for FG vs. SF, as already counted the pick6’s against them, but not counting the Hargreaves pick6, and defense forcing a fumble at Tam 29.
281 points (20th in league)
-3 for FG vs. Seattle, following a fumble to Tam 15.
278 points (19th in league)
-3 for FG vs. Arizona following TO at Tam 37.
275 points (18th in league)
-7 for TD vs. Atl after TO at Tam 19
268 points (17th in league)
-0 vs. Jax, but that terrible defense did get 4 turnovers, including an INT at the goalline by SMB
-7 for TD vs. NO#2 following TO at Tam 16
261 points (15th in the league).
tickrdr
BTW: You all can double check my work, and I may have double counted two of the pick6’s, but all of the rest comes from looking at drive charts on profootball reference.com, where opponents’ drives started in Bucs territory. So even if a Bucs turnover resulted in the opponent scoring, I did not count it unless the opponent took over in Bucs’ territory.
BTW#2: 346 points – 261 points = 85 points attributable to turnovers by the offense in Bucs’ territory. 85 points in 12 games = SEVEN points a game.
December 6th, 2019 at 1:57 pm
Lol @ tickdr that is impressive work but you’d have to do that for every team in the league for it to be a relevant comparison. Every team has turnovers and points off turnovers.
I wonder what the Bucs opponent’s avg points off turnover would be?
How many turnovers came when leading? Trailing?
Does our defense hold to FGs or allow more TDS?
Either way turnovers are the one thing keeping Jameis from being a lock for a long term contract but it’s a big one thing. Jameis is just part of the team’s problem but he also plays good enough to be part of the solution.
Enigma.
December 6th, 2019 at 2:07 pm
@Bucaroni and Cheese:
Sorry, almost forgot about you.
Again from profootballreference.com:
For the offense:
TO percentage = percent of offensive drives ending in a turnover.
2015: 14.8%
2015: 14.8%
2016: 15.4%
2017: 19.0%
2019 so far: 18.2%
For the defense:
Same idea, TO percentage = percent of the opponents’ drives ending in a TO.
2015: 12.8%
2016: 14.7%
2017: 13.1%
2018: 8.2%
2019 so far: 13.5%
So to me, it appears that the offensive TO percentage has gone up steadily, with perhaps slight improvement this year, but remember that last year included Fitz, who was even slightly worse than Jameis at turning it over. Thank God we have Jameis in his 5th year, right???
The defensive turnover percentage is much improved, and remember also:
Nearly all rookie secondary in a new scheme
Early injury to rookie Devin White
JPP out for several games to start the season
AND remember only ~ 40% of the available cap space allotted to defensive players, while ~60% of the cap space is spent on offensive players. Which side of the ball should be “carrying” the other?
Again, JMHO. Please ignore, and scroll past.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 2:31 pm
@Alaskan Abominable Snowman says:
Jameis is just part of the team’s problem but he also plays good enough to be part of the solution.
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Again, I am not trying to persuade you or change your opinion, but I just spent a significant portion of my day off looking stuff up, and you are most welcome to spend some time to enlighten us all regarding any other statistical comparisons you may like.
All of my long posts have tried to show that the defense would be ranked 15th in the league, if you didn’t count the 85 points allowed after offensive turnovers on the Bucs side of the field. Furthermore, if you take away the 85 points from the Bucs’ offense total of 340 points, you get a net 255 points which would be tied for 20th in the league.
So, I will just agree to disagree, and will say that TURNOVERS are the problem, and that Jameis Winston is the largest part of that problem, and definitely NOT part of the solution as long as he keeps turning the ball over at alarming rates.
It will become even more of a problem, if the Bucs spend even more of their salary cap allotment to keep him in this offense.
My very simple metric is to get a minimum TD/INT ratio of 2:1, which JW3 has NEVER done, 5 years now and counting.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 2:36 pm
@tickdr
Good breakdown. So basically the defense at this point in the season (now after having a few very solid games) would be about AVERAGE if we took away ALL points given up off turnovers.
However – the NFL league average is 17 turnovers through 12 games not 0.
Bucs had 28 for 85 points off turnovers – or ~3 points per turnover.
If we adjust the defense’s points allowed using the NFL average vs the Bucs amount of turnovers, it only benefits the Defense 33 points.
346 minus 33 = 313 points given up / 26.1 PPG if our offense was at the league average in turnovers which would still rank them 23rd or bottom 1/3.
December 6th, 2019 at 2:39 pm
“if you take away the 85 points from the Bucs’ offense total of 340 points”
Why would you do that though?
the 85 points is the points you calculated off of turnovers by the offense not the defense and is based on all turnovers not the league average.
The defense only has 5 more turnovers than league average. Even if we scored a TD every time that’s only 35 points and more likely ~15-20 based on our actual scores.
We can’t do the “what if we had no turnover” argument because that’s not reality. To me it makes a lot more sense adjusting to league average.
When you do that our offense would still be elite in scoring, while our defense would be 23rd.
December 6th, 2019 at 2:46 pm
Hey Clown (dapostman)…..in Winston’s “match play” he’s down 14 through 66 holes. Ouch. Does that stat count? (answer…not for FSU/Winston jock sniffers).
December 6th, 2019 at 2:53 pm
I would literally throw up if the Bucs went after Cam. Keep away from him at all costs! #Jameis202
December 6th, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Thanks tickdr, your stat digging is appreciated! Definitely concerning that the TO rates have definitely gotten worse since Winston’s rookie year and the defense seems to be middling but a nice jump from a poor 2018, and like you said that’s with many of our current starting defensive playmakers not on the field due to injury or faith in the almighty VH3…
Your calcs for Lord Cornelius are also interesting, I would have expected eliminating the “points allowed due to Winston TOs” to push us further up the ranks than 15th. Makes it look like our defense is still too cushy, or at least our early season woes weigh it down. It would be nice if there was a good stat out there to measure defensive performance when they aren’t compromised by their offense’s turnovers.
I think this Colts game will be our best gauge the rest of the season. They are playing for postseason and we are too (though it hangs by a nano-thread string). I’d love to see a strong showing by the defense to validate their growth. I think the Texans will be a good measure too but we will likely be officially eliminated then and have less to play for. I’m sure most players will still be giving 110% effort, but I live in a world where some of our guys are in contract years too and could play a little cautiously.
December 6th, 2019 at 3:07 pm
Here’s my final succinct way of contextualizing turnovers and the offense & defense in 2019:
Bucs points scored: 340 (4th) 28.3 PPG
Bucs points scored when adjusting scoring down by 3.5 points per additional turnover created by our defense vs the league average: 323 (5th) 26.9 PPG
Bucs points given up: 346 (30th) 28.8 PPG
Bucs points given up when adjusting by 3 points per turnover (the average as calculated by tickdr’s data), and taking away 11 extra turnovers by the offense vs league average: 313 (23rd) 26.1 PPG
Offense when all things adjusted for turnovers = still top 5 in scoring
Defense when all things adjusted for turnovers = still 23rd in scoring
Considering our run game has been bad and this is all coming through the air for the most part, it’s hard to not see why people are still not giving up on Jameis Winston. It’s also easier to imagine less turnovers with a good D and less shoot outs. Last week was an example. Should have been 0 turnovers if not for the missed block.
Turnovers are his problem, but they also are his problem about 15% of his career. In 85% of his career games his #’s are over a 2:1 TD to turnover ratio
December 6th, 2019 at 3:40 pm
@Lord Corn:
Very nice rebuttal, and fair enough. Good job!
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 4:09 pm
LordCornelius Says:
Turnovers are his problem, but they also are his problem about 15% of his career. In 85% of his career games his #’s are over a 2:1 TD to turnover ratio
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One last point, then I promise, I’ll let it go.
Your point may be valid, but your math is not so good.
In fact, Jameis has had 35 of 68 games where his TD to INT ratio was at least 2:1 or better, but that is ONLY 51.5% of all his games.
In fact, if you also add in his FUMBLES LOST, then there are 28 of 68 games where his TD to TURNOVER ratio was at least 2:1 or better, but that is ONLY 41.2% of his games.
tickrdr
Have a good night to all!
December 6th, 2019 at 4:14 pm
Jeagan1999 Says:
December 6th, 2019 at 5:54 am
I just can’t see bringing Jameis back. He’s as likely to turn the ball over as he is throw a TD pass, and he can’t even complete 60% of his passes. That’s just not worth over $20mil a year on a long term contract.
_________________________________________________
I mean besides the fact that nothing you wrote is remotely true, you’re totally right jeagan!
lol, Bucs fans I swear… dumbest fanbase in the league
December 6th, 2019 at 4:29 pm
Thank you again, tickrdr!
Solid, factual, objective points. Your points made help me understand why I believe we may need a new QB. I wish you could
Present these to jameis1of1.
I don’t believe we could win a super bowl with this kind of play.
December 6th, 2019 at 4:45 pm
Excellent back and forth on these comments. Tickrdr is killing it and it helps factually breakdown what my heart, brain, and eyes see when watching the last five years.
December 6th, 2019 at 4:49 pm
I never, ever see a so much hate from a team fan base thus is horrible, Tiger, LeBron and Brady most hated people in the world but not by their fans this is horrible, look at the first years of Fabre and Payton, I know, I know they’re white but just take a look to ease your hate against JW. God bless you all.
December 6th, 2019 at 4:51 pm
Thanks again, SteveK!
Headed to Enchant at the Trop with all my employees and my family.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 4:57 pm
@Izzy:
One of the main reasons that I like stats so much is because they are black and white, and not about race…………………… except to YOU.
tickrdr
December 6th, 2019 at 5:16 pm
@tickrdr
Thanks man. This has been a good statistical back and forth and why I love numbers because you can paint a lot of different pictures with the same data lol. I respect your research and points a lot.
On the 15% thing, I based that on looking at Jameis Winston’s stats when you remove his worst 2 games per year in terms of interceptions, because my theory has been that his few meltdown games per year massively inflate his bad statistics.
When removing those 10 games, in his other 58 games he is at
62% / 7.85 YPA / 98 TD / 44 INT
Not sure of the fumbles so it’s definitely possible he’s not 2:1 once that is factored in but usually his fumbles happened on those same bad interception implosion games.
Regardless – it seems a bit crazy that in 10 of his 68 games (15%) he’s thrown almost 1/2 of all his total interceptions (34 / 78).
If he played the way he did in the other 85% of games 100% of the time, we are probably winning ~1-2 more games per year and he is already getting a big contract.
December 6th, 2019 at 6:14 pm
The REAL Touchdown, Tampa Bay here. Not the fake a$$ name jacker!!!! Jamies has to drastically cut down the turnovers and we would have ourselves a good quarterback.
December 6th, 2019 at 7:51 pm
JAMEIS WILL GET PAID $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
December 7th, 2019 at 8:23 am
I disagree with the notion that a good QB can’t be found in the draft. Other teams manage to do it every year. A good to great QB doesn’t have to be a top 5 pick. Many of those tend to be flops.
The idea that needs to be a stop gap at 20+million for 1yr is asinine. Fans have watched 5 yrs of the same script was zero chance of sniffing the playoffs, being embarrassed on every national TV game and just abysmal QB play most of the time. This idea that it could be worse. It’s pretty dam bad now. The Glazers have made a living off fan apathy.
December 7th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
@MTM,
yes some others teams find QB’s. NOT ALL TEAMS. QB’s drafted top 3 rounds since 2015.
2015: Winston, Mariotta, Grayson, Mannion
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Hackenberg, Brissett, Kessler
2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer, Webb, Beatherd
2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph
2019: Murray, Jones, Haskins, Lock, Grier
There are 3 players that would be considered an upgrade over Winston. Mahomes, Watson and Jackson. That’s it. These 3 were all drafted to better teams and situations than Winston also.
2016 Texans 9-7 playoffs year before Watson
2016 Chiefs 12-4 playoffs year before Mahomes
2017 Ravens 9-7 year before Jackson
2014 Bucs 2-14 year before Winston
So good luck finding your QB in the draft.