Bruce Arians Talks Jameis Ratios
December 13th, 2019
Bucco Bruce Arians, it seems, was feeling rather loose talking to Detroit media about Jameis Winston this week.
The head coach was candid talking about America’s Quarterback, who just won him a ball game after nearly losing it.
“I mean, just quit giving points to the other team early in the game, and then have us to play from behind and come back to beat teams,” Arians told The Detroit Free Press. “But for me, it’s [Jameis] learning the offense in his first year. Every quarterback I’ve had, their first year in this offense, the interceptions were up, but the touchdowns were up also. I think if we can stay somewhere around three-to-one, not one-to-one, we’re in good shape.”
The touchdown-to-picks ratio line stood out to Joe.
In 2014 and 2015, quarterback Carson Palmer had a better than 3-to-1 ratio of touchdowns to picks while playing for the Cardinals under Arians. That’s the standard, and Jameis (or anyone else) shouldn’t claim that’s unrealistic in Arians’ offense — though it might be unrealistic for Jameis.
The Bucs haven’t had a starting QB with a TD-picks ratio of 3-to-1 or better since Josh Freeman threw 25 TDs against 6 interceptions in 2010. Jameis has yet to reach 2-to-1 in any season.
The bar is set high for Arians’ quarterbacks.
December 13th, 2019 at 8:08 am
5 losing seasons, suspensions, lacks leadership ability are a few
December 13th, 2019 at 8:08 am
Why did you leave out the fact that Carson Palmer threw 24td/22int HIS FIRST YEAR UNDER ASIANS IN 2013 but still won 10 games? For context wouldn’t that be important? No. This was about the standard Arians has set and its attainability. Joe is not here to spin a bunch of stats. In 2013, Palmer threw only eight picks in his final eight games as the Cardinals went 6-2, is that important too? No, it’s not. –Joe
December 13th, 2019 at 8:10 am
Then year 2 he played 6 games and threw 11td/3int. Then year 3 threw 35td/11int
December 13th, 2019 at 8:33 am
“I’m struggling to think of another quarterback who reaches his floor and his ceiling within the same game as consistently as Winston. He’s basically a net neutral quarterback at this point, playing poorly enough to put the Bucs behind or in a bind, and then summoning an absurd level of self-resolve and confidence (or indifference to mistakes) to lift his squad out of the crater he’s created.”
Quote from Bhanpuri of NFL.com. Can’t really sum up Winston’s play of late any better IMO.
December 13th, 2019 at 8:33 am
if JW and BL can get these picks down we would be cooking with gas….
GO BUCS!!!!!
December 13th, 2019 at 8:35 am
Arizona defense was 7th in points allowed and 6th in yards allowed which is why they won despite the picks
December 13th, 2019 at 8:48 am
Lamar Jackson ratio
December 13th, 2019 at 8:54 am
You have to wonder if the Bucs are winning because of Winston or in spite of him.
December 13th, 2019 at 8:55 am
bucboi: I mean shoot we would be cooking with Grade A Jet Fuel!
December 13th, 2019 at 8:59 am
Everyone has been saying give Jameis some short throws in the beginning of games to get him going, and keep the interceptions down. I say do the opposite. His first throw should be a long bomb, max protect. Let him throw it as far as he can to one deep receiver. This way if it’s a pick like to many of Jameis’s first throws, it’s way down the field, and not in our own end.
December 13th, 2019 at 9:02 am
“I mean, just quit giving points to the other team early in the game, and then have us to play from behind and come back to beat teams,” Arians told The Detroit Free Press.
Exactly the point many of us have been saying since Year 1…..The defense didn’t throw the pick 6 or give away terrible field position. You cant win in the NFL when you’re losing the turnover battle week in/week out. That’s just statistical fact….even the elite Bucs defense made it a point to remind Dilfer to not give the game away with turnovers. One of the greatest defenses of all time understood the basic concept that they can only overcome so much. Then we want to hold rookie CBs to a high level of accountability but not a 5th year QB that’s literally the worst in turnovers in the entire league for the past 5 yrs?
December 13th, 2019 at 9:05 am
@Eric… I agree, looks like cherry picking to me.
December 13th, 2019 at 9:19 am
Once all involved are fully comfortable and confident in executing this offense (which includes the near rookie play caller) – it is reasonable to assume the Interception totals will come down. Yes – even with Winston slinging the rock….
33 TDs and 11 INTs is absolutely doable for Winston and this offense next year. And a lot will depend on Winston’s commitment to minimizing his riskiest throws moving forward to achieve that.
But there are many other factors that can help cut down on total Ints as well. Scheming and play calling for one. Better protection from the Oline is a biggy. And of course Receivers running crisp routes and being where they are supposed to be on time. Oh and receivers need to stop tipping the damn ball up in the air on off target throws (or muffed catches) as well….
December 13th, 2019 at 9:22 am
It’s fair to WANT for Jameis to have a 3-to-1 ratio in TD’s to INT’s…
Consider this…
Peyton Manning achieved that 4 times in 17 seasons.
Brett Favre achieved that 2 times in 19 seasons.
December 13th, 2019 at 9:43 am
3-1 td/int ratio from Jameis? Nothings impossible, but I’m more likely to sprout wings and fly into the sun.
December 13th, 2019 at 9:49 am
Our standards are low here.
Watch Lamar Jackson…dude has off the chain ability. It’s not just because of his D and RB’s either…
That man has skills, but around here we celebrate when our 5th year QB throws one away….or only throws 3 pics in a game..27-40.
Low standards.
December 13th, 2019 at 10:02 am
jameis int’s will go down dramatically once he has a nfl caliber offensive line and a defense that does not give up 40 before half….. jameis has had to face 2 defenses every week for 97.5% of his career.
December 13th, 2019 at 10:02 am
I mean, just quit giving points to the other team early in the game, and then have us to play from behind and come back to beat teams,” Arians told The Detroit Free Press.
(
His head coach can see it! We Buc fans can see it but the Winston (fans) can’t.
(CULT) Def. A misplaced or excessive admiration for a particular person or thing!!!
Sound familiar????????????
December 13th, 2019 at 10:15 am
Jmarkbuc
you are not wrong about jackson’s off the chain skills but let him do it for 3 to 5 years before we label him great… bucfan is so desperate to claw out of the basement they toss great around way to much and more often than not confuse popularity with greatness.
December 13th, 2019 at 10:19 am
ou812
once again you are a day late and a dollar short little one… i have defined cult years ago as the dungy nuthuggers association of history rewriters…..
i’ll buy you a lap dance when jameis signs his multi year deal that will ease your pain. I am assuming that will be your first contact ever with a female.
December 13th, 2019 at 10:22 am
Joseph Momma – perfect take on JW.
Is there anyone? Even the ardent supporter that doesn’t want to see less interceptions?
Hoping it changes, because if it does, we will be nearly impossible to stop. We are almost there. Major red zone improvement this year.
Our other major issue is patience and the steep learning curve our Band of Brothers are going through.
Vea
White
Davis
Dean
Bunting
Edwards
Whitehead
Resign all our DL. Continuity leads to momentum leads to mastery leads to excellence.
Go Bucs!
In BA I Trust!
December 13th, 2019 at 10:29 am
Lamar Jackson is a physical stud playing QB, and I worry one big hit and career maybe over. The Ravens strong running game is what opens up the wholes in the defense for easier throws. Like last years Rams someone will finally come up with a way to stop or slow this offense and the rest of the league will copy then the party will be over in Baltimore.
December 13th, 2019 at 10:50 am
Winston needs to run more and get much better awareness in the pocket. You have to have a quick passing scheme when your offensive line can’t block edge rushers. Most of Winston sacks are coming from edge. If he got ball out faster, wouldn’t have all the sacks. He’s a good thrower on the run too. My biggest knock on him is forcing throws to primary receivers. Bucs should copy Sean Payton’s offense and use Godwin like Michael Thomas and get Howard downfield more
December 13th, 2019 at 11:06 am
Add Robert to the list of Jameis Bashers
December 13th, 2019 at 11:09 am
GMs con is the worst insulter on this site…
December 13th, 2019 at 11:49 am
Tmaxipad Lap dance??
I told you I don’t want you mom touching me! When that loser your in love with looking for a new team the Skyways will be waiting for you !!!
December 13th, 2019 at 11:56 am
I have a wager to propose for next season (since Jameis will be the Bucs QB for no less than two more years), at seasons end if he isn’t at 20 INTs I’ll donate $100 per INT to his charity and if he’s over you have to donate $100 per INT to the women’s shelter of Tampa. Who wants this bet?
December 13th, 2019 at 12:06 pm
Ed have you or any number of these people who talk about his pocket awareness and to get the ball out sooner ever think that 1) He has evaded more sacks than he’s been sacked behind a porous line thus giving him pretty good awareness and 2) receivers have to get open for him to get it out faster and these routes are deeper. A number of his ints have been because it seemed they were open but were not.
December 13th, 2019 at 12:55 pm
TD Buc
He took a pretty good shot last night and bounced up like nobody touched him..
Tampax, got his team in the playoffs in his first year, wins the North in his second…and MVP to boot. Super Bowl next.
I ain’t doubting Action Jackson, at all….
It’s possible that a guy drafted #32 can be a superstar, while a guy drafted #1 can be a snooze…..
December 13th, 2019 at 12:56 pm
*Texbuc
December 13th, 2019 at 2:31 pm
“Jameis has yet to reach 2-to-1 in any season.”
Ouch.
December 13th, 2019 at 2:39 pm
Pickgrin,
I hope you’re correct about winston achieving a 3 to 1 ratio. 33 to 11.
But I wouldn’t build a game plan or set the seasons strategy based upon such starry eyed optimism. It wouldn’t be smart .
To reduce the turnovers, you mention a couple things that would help. But you haven’t isolated the issues that are solely on winston. So you’ve built in a failure mechanism. Either address his issues or say screw it, the plan isn’t to decrease ints. Nope it’s about increasing TD’S.
Winston has proven he can sling the ball and score TD’S. He hasn’t been able to get rid of the excess t.o.. point is why bet on the least probable outcome .
Certainly makes zero sense to choose that over what is clearly his strong suit.
Personally, I believe winston is the best option for next year. Unlike some people, I believe winston can be a sb. winning qb. Unlike another faction, I don’t think success will be anything other than a single lucky year. Consistently winning will require winston to improve way more than he’s done in 5yrs. Possible yes. But the odds are not going to inspire confidence.
Even if winston does his part, it’s a team game with lots of moving parts. He could be great and still lose. The plus side is that he is doing his job at the highest quality. Basically ending any critical comments about his part in the teams overall win loss record.
When fans throw out dilifer won a SB. I shake my head in embarrassment.
It’s not relevant in the least unless it presumes winston also departs the team. Which is usually what the same people claim isn’t happening. It’s also implying winston sucks which is not the point they wish to make.
December 13th, 2019 at 4:07 pm
D1 –
“you haven’t isolated the issues that are solely on winston”
As far as I can see – Winston’s biggest “issue” regarding turnovers – is that he tries too hard to “make a play” too often…. That’s why he leads the league in total Interceptions through 5 years. The same has rung true for some of his fumbles as well – although IMO the OLine shares a big part of the blame for a good % of Winston’s fumbles.
Playing on teams that have lacked in pass protection, a running game, a decent defense and a kicker that can kick even near 80% has exacerbated this “problem” greatly.
I dare say there’s not one QB in the league who could have been here instead of Winston with the same coaches, same schemes and same supporting casts and been a “winning Quarterback”.
Even though Winston’s Interceptions are up substantially in 2019 – I attribute that primarily to “growing pains” within a new offense by the whole offensive unit – not just Winston. A somewhat complex new offense that emphasizes throwing for large chunks of yards.
Carson Palmer had 10 years experience before joining BA – and Palmer threw 22 INTs his first year in that offense.
I have already seen signs of “progress” from Winston this year regarding his part in the “turnovers” despite leading the league in them.
– He’s been more apt to throw the ball away or into the ground if the play isn’t there than at any time in his career from my observation.
– He’s quicker to tuck the ball away and run for what he can get in those same situations this year as well.
– He’s done a much better job of attempting to keep 2 hands and a tighter grip on the ball when scrambling or running.
These are the primary ways a QB can consciously and practically attempt to “cut down” on turnovers. And Jameis is checking all those boxes.
Unless you want to start limiting his “exposure” on downfield passes with play calling and turn him into some kind of a neutered Check Down Charlie – which is obviously a bad idea for a QB with his passing skills – there’s not a whole lot left to do but let him play through it and learn what he can and can’t get away with in this offense.
Bottom Line – Surround Jameis with a top 20 or better OLine, Running attack, Defense and Kicker – and he will win 10+ games every year.
Winston only has one of those elements to “work with” this year statistically – and surprisingly – its the kicker…..
Defense is playing much better since about the 9th game and has a ton of young talent developing nicely – so that is very encouraging for the rest of this year and heading into 2020.
December 13th, 2019 at 6:14 pm
According to a NFL stat guy on Twitter today, Jameis has a FOUR TO ONE TOUCHDOWN TO INTERCEPTION RATIO when playing in the lead. You want “efficient Jameis”, get a better team and have him play in the lead sometimes.
December 13th, 2019 at 6:52 pm
Pickgrin,
Let me start with , its a pleasure to read a well thought out post. Great post sir.
There’s a lot I agree with so I’ll stick to some of points Im not with you yet.
Jameis tries too hard. Yes, there’s ways of saying it a bit different but I didn’t choose to put it like that so I have to ask you to step back and think about it.
It’s easy to get some phrases for a while and before long it’s just an auto response. I believe this is happening here.
To start, who in the NFL is so talented that they don’t have to try hard. My first thought is Sanders and Moss. 2 in what 20years.
Every player tries hard. Too hard is the point where mistakes happen. So if player a is top notch talent wise and player b is 6th round roster filler wouldn’t it be logical that player a could perform at an extremely high level without trying too hard. Player b would have to try too hard daily just to stick on the team. Just something to think about.
Trying too hard , unfortunately, is not easy to fix, as it comes down to this, try less hard. Basically it puts everything on the QB , now he’s responsible for not developing. Because it’s not about anything but individual effort.individual effort is self control ie, it’s all on winston.
-More effort hasn’t produced more wins , he tries to score on every down.
Never met a QB who doesn’t have the mindset of score every possession.
Being no one in league history has ever scored more than half the time it’s
Not a reality and every successful qb has to find that line or balance.
5yrs in winston hasn’t.
Btw, he hasn’t learned that basic step yet and it’s allowing him to make a mistake, turn around next possession and fire away. Like it never happened.
Basically, what just happened was we moved from he trys too hard to something that is more accurately identifing the issue. It’s not a physical problem, mechanical it’s mental.
Now it’s about trade offs , less aggressive =less results. is that desirable. Not with this team it’s not. More aggressive, more results is how the team was built. Winston isn’t doing his job if he dials it back. Because the team is built for him and around him first. The defense sucks..no spit. It’s all about winston.
Finally the last couple drafts went defense. Different discussion but have to mention it.
Winston makes mistakes for a variety of reasons. But it’s possible to lump the majority into a couple categories. Trying too hard isn’t a category.
The 2 areas are physical or mental mistakes.
Trying too hard is a mental mistake.
That leaves the physical side. Pick he’s been horrible at times.
Footwork, drop backs, throwing motion, on and on. There’s a pic joe put up early this week I think. It shows winston at the point just after his release.
Not one comment on it, btw. But I literally thought holy spit! Wtf is this kid doing . It was that bad.
You think his interceptions are way up ? That’s why season totals are the number 1 go to stat. Did he throw more or less of x this season than last.
Bingo , instant number . Instant analysis. Seldom if ever useful information.
Surrounding winston with a top …..fill in the blank…and we will win 10+ games every year. I have to ask, how proficient in mathematics are you? Not the slightest bit of disrespect. Just asking if you are capable of converting that thought into an equation? If you can , it’s not possible to solve . I can tell from the start but I’d rather you work thru it.
My base line with what you say is 8 and 8. No way to get to 10+ year in year out. I’ll go on a limb, and say it’s not possible.
I’m a fan and I believe most of us want the same thing a team that is steady , improves consistently, is competitive and capable of making it to the playoffs for more than a single season. What I see happening year in and year out is fans and the team never really have a good understanding of where the team is in relation to where it needs to be. The latter adds a timeline.
Arians sold everyone that it’s win now. A couple of games and it’s the fans screaming the season is over, fire this guy, trade him, blah blah. I’m saying you don’t run a successful business doing things like this. NFL is unique in that winning doesn’t matter , biz Wise, and fans aren’t rational consumers. So stupid sh@t, just keeps on happening year to year.
Finally, I see we are not far off. Couldn’t even entertain that idea until recently.
But things are aligning and if the team doesn’t go back to a we need a vet free safety and corner, a starting right tackle and a great running back, and presto we in the superbowl mentality. I really like what I see.
December 13th, 2019 at 6:57 pm
Pick,
Sorry.
I’m at an airport moving from gate to gate. I’m rambling incoherently because of it.
It’s that or the crack I bought walking from long term parking .