7 Of 12 Games Vs. Elite Pass Rushing Teams
December 4th, 2019
One reason Decision Jameis remains a mystery could be tied to the uniqueness of Tampa Bay’s past opponents and what lies ahead.
Some rough football luck found its way to America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston.
Among the teams ranked in the top-6 in sacks through the first 12 games of the season, Jameis has played seven games against those clubs. That’s a huge percentage if you stop and think about it.
Carolina leads the NFL in sacks with a whopping 46. The 49ers, Saints, Jaguars and Rams (all Bucs opponents) also are super high on the sacks charts. For those wondering, the Bucs rank tied for 13th in the league in sacks with 33 sacks. And yes, haters, Carolina has done it with Gerald McCoy, who has as many sacks this season as Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, Will Gholston and Beau Allen combined.
It’s no coincidence that when the Bucs faced Atlanta two games ago, Jameis was hit just once and was not sacked. Atlanta’s 18 sacks rank last in the NFC.
Still ahead on the Tampa Bay schedule is the Colts’ solid pass rush on Sunday, but then the Bucs and Jameis face very weak rushes in Detroit, Houston and Atlanta to close the season.
With a healthy array of weapons, Jameis should be able to pick all those teams apart. If he does, Jameis is very likely to lead the NFL in passing yards and find his way to 30 touchdowns (he has 22 right now).
Given the gamble that is free agency and the draft, what team in its right mind would dump a 25-year-old quarterback who led the NFL in passing yards and threw 30 touchdowns? Of course, that’s just a hypothetical. Jameis also could have one meltdown game, a roller coaster finish, and find his way to 26 interceptions this season.
Regardless, it’s worth noting how much the schedule now gets easier for Jameis specifically. He’s primed to finish strong.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:04 am
So you’re saying a good pass rush forces a QB to make mistakes? Lock up our pass rushers!!
December 4th, 2019 at 9:09 am
I’m starting him in the fantasy playoffs.
And the Bucs defense…
December 4th, 2019 at 9:14 am
Who dumps a 25yo QB who leads the league in passing yards? The Bucs. Only after training him and enduring all the growing pains that comes with being a QB in NFL. After watching decades of inept play at the position from my hometown team, I’m not anxious to rush past to see what can be found behind door #2. Call it bird in hand theory. Who amongst us was a perfect person or mistake-free professional before the ripe old age of 25?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:15 am
houston has a good pass rush….. Meh, 25 sacks ranks 26th in the NFL. Nowhere near the same without J.J. Watt. –Joe
every game from here on out is winnable….
GO BUCS!!!!!
December 4th, 2019 at 9:17 am
Jameis drives me nuts. My single biggest issue with him is that I don’t know if my sanity can take him much longer.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:21 am
Great excuse!
Kinda like the chicken or the egg thing though.
Also, how many sacks did he run into?
December 4th, 2019 at 9:22 am
The sun always shines when JW doe not turn the ball over……..HOw consistent can he be….nobody knows, repeat NOBODY, that´s the main reason you can´t pay him the big bucs……Everybody knows what can this guy do, the good ones and the bad ones………. We should offer whom a good two year contract, but not elite……. We need the Nassibs the JPP the Barrets and the Suh´s……We can´t pay everybody big numbers……
December 4th, 2019 at 9:24 am
@doosh… yes, Jameis is the culprit of many sacks. We got worked against the saints but the o line has done a good job of protecting since then. Did anyone notice who has the leagues worst run defense???? #93’s carolina panthers ….
December 4th, 2019 at 9:28 am
JW is BA’s boy. He will be with the Bucs in 2020. I just hope to hell loser Licht doesn’t sacrifice Barrett, Nassib or even JPP in the process. Need to keep those three even before JW. I don’t care how they manage it but they need to.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:33 am
So if Winston throws 3-5 INTs per game against good pass rushes (which is what you would see in the playoffs) but 0-2 INTs a game against bad pass rushes, that validates a multi year contract?
I still think the decision should be to offer him a 2 year team friendly deal with incentives based on his play and bring in another QB via the draft or free agency.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:38 am
Thing about carolina and mccoy is that’s how they scheme so DTs can mop up. We’re schemed to hold down the the middle and rush the outside linebackers. Thus why shaq leads the league in sacks. McCoy is better than suh at rushing the passer and would not complement our dl as well. Suh is much better in run support.
Gerald McCoy has had the most sacks in roughly 5 years this season against….
the tampa bay buccaneers.
It’s evident revenge drove his passion more than his passion for the bucs when he was here. So glad he’s gone.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:44 am
Get Winston a run game where play action will actually work and a pass catching back and it will be smooth sailing. Bill Walsh showed us 40 years ago that a short pass to a RB is an extension of the run game. For the last 4 years this has not been properly addressed.
December 4th, 2019 at 9:59 am
I say give him a contract.
Forget about the franchise tag. At this point it’ll be close to $30m. Best to give Jameis $25m per year including incentives. 3-4 years, 1-2 guaranteed.
Because, here’s the thing: Regardless of the haters, Jameis WILL be elite eventually. People like to say yards don’t matter…but they do. For decades, the measure of good QBs was their yards on stat sheets. A QB with 3,000 yards is simply not good enough in todays NFL.
But more importantly, his yards indicate the strong potential to excel once he fully matures. He is now at the average age of a second year QB. He’s got probably 10-17 years of play left in him, and he’s only just starting to reach his prime years…which should be realized around the age of 27-28.
Sign him now, and get him cheap before the cost goes up to $32m per year, because next year, he will look 10 times better. Not just because of his own maturation, but because the offensive line will be better, the defense will be better, and our kicker will have a year of development.
And hope the NFL & NFLPA reach an agreement that allowed one player to be designated to not count against the cap, because that would solve our cap issues.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:02 am
Also, 2 years guaranteed would tie him to the three years our coaching staff needed when they were hired.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:04 am
Wow, some awesome comments on this one. DECISION JAMEIS will nonetheless be a toughie Joe, more because of the potential money involved than anything else. Even if we win out for these last 4 games, that doesn’t change the salary Cap situation one iota.
Bucs have some VERY hard choices to make when this season ends. Quality performers cost money. Barrett, JPP, Suh & Nassib have ALL produced for us this year … PAY THEM. Without a strong defense, a more robust OLine & an improved running game, Bucs will be on the outside looking in at the playoffs again next year & wondering what happened. Tough CHOICES ahead, but winning TEAMS relish those tough choices.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:05 am
You people need to move one from McCoy. He’s gone. No longer a factor.
He wasn’t bad for us, but Suh is better. Even so, Suh is not great. We need him though.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:08 am
Bonzai
You gotta move on from people moving on from mccoy. He’s always gonna be discussed due to the fact he was such a staple of our franchise for so long.
It always surprises me when people get annoyed when people discuss someone who was on our team for a decade lol. You’re wasting your time.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:17 am
I think there is so much middle ground to consider and much of it involves his pending contract. The suggestion above of a 2year deal with incentives is a good example of what I am talking about. Jameis wants to stay in Tampa, a lot of teams won’t be enamored by the turnovers and won’t have the WR’s or TE’s to produce the yards. Winning is still a team effort. Negotiate with Winston and focus on keeping Dline.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:34 am
The INTs are hard to live with, but how much of it is scheme-related? I watch NFL wide receivers run WIDE open every week because their schemes create deception and misdirection, which buys them space. We have OUTSTANDING wideouts, but you don’t see them in space nearly as often. As a result, there seem to be SO many risky throws each game that it seems to me that’s INTs are inevitable.
Ultimately, Jameis pulls the trigger, and I’m not excusing him of the picks. But he has always been turnover prone, and it seems to me that this particular scheme (and Koetter’s) do very little to minimize his flaws. If anything, they overexposed them with high risk throws and little help from the run game.
December 4th, 2019 at 10:35 am
pass rush comes from pressure too not just sacks….
constant pressure on the QB rattles them, causes them to get rid of the ball quicker….
texans got pressure on brady all night…..not sure if they sacked him but they sure did rattle him and had him screaming at his WRs to get open faster because the “pressure” is coming fast…..
GO BUCS!!!!!
December 4th, 2019 at 10:44 am
Great pass rush teams usually make the playoffs……………
December 4th, 2019 at 11:11 am
I like to look at Pressure % on pass plays (nod to bucboi) too, and it really is interesting how the Bucs have played a lot of games against the top teams. Which could explain some struggles, but then Winston can go out and have arguable his best game of the year shredding the savage Rams D-Line (3rd in Prss%). Just goes back to all the inconsistencies with Winston, he should have had sharp games against the Titans and Cardinals by this measure.
Also of note, the Bucs are actually low in Pressure %. I think we get hyped up on the # of sacks, but our line isn’t getting as much pressure per play as we think they are. Our strength is throwing the rock and our defense’s weakness is defending people from throwing it too. More passing plays a game means more total plays per game, which equates to more sacks. Would be interesting to explore how our pressure rate looks with Dean in the recent games without the scrubby VH3 on the field. I mean of all the draft picks outside of Aguayo in the 2nd, that is the most mind boggling to me. Just did not measure up to NFL standards, let alone CB Round 1 standards
December 4th, 2019 at 11:15 am
Bonzai, that was because advanced metrics on performance and an individuals performance in a game did not exist. I’m not talking about QBR either. Look at Jameis’ DVOA and DYAR numbers. They are among the bottom of the list of all eligible quarterbacks. There are now ways to measure a player’s performance apart from what the rest of the team does. To use a stat like yards to place any sort of value on a QBs play is an immature and child-like way of looking at performance.
Blake Bortles was among the league leader in yards and 2nd in TD passes thrown in 2015. However, his DVOA was -9.9% (Jameis is -13.3%) and his DYAR was 54 (Jameis is currently 17. In 2015 the QB leader for DVOA was Carson Palmer at 34.4% and his DYAR was 1,698. Both players that year threw 35 TD passes and both threw for over 4,400 yards.
My point is that you can’t look at stats like yards and TDs and automatically think you have something special. In 2015 Bortles and Palmer had nearly identical seasons statictically but clearly one was a far better QB. Going back to Jameis when you look at the advanced metrics he’s still one of the worst QBs in the NFL despite the yards.
December 4th, 2019 at 11:15 am
So what you’re saying is that our QB is the most sackable (in addition to turnover prone) in the NFL???
December 4th, 2019 at 11:16 am
Well Imma tell you now if the cowboys offer dak big $ then bucs are gonna have to pay jaboo or let him walk.. Dak literally has the line, the rb, the wrs and is still losing. If Jaboo had that line we wouldn’t even be crabbing about turnovers, if we had dak Prescott then oh god how bad we would be
December 4th, 2019 at 11:24 am
“Offensive lineman is hard to find
All 32 teams badly need them and not 1 team has Oline depth
Yes we will draft Oline early next year
HOWEVER, the player being effective and a strength is highly improbable
*College Football just does not teach/develop an plug and play NFL lineman
The TB Oline just like ALL other 31 teams will have erratic weak Olines now and in the future
THE ANSWER
Is BA/BL Twins to have a effective short passing package
To be used during the game when the Defense brings all out pressure or the porus Oline continues to breakdown”
Kobe Faker
December 4th, 2019 at 11:33 am
The Bucs will do the most Bucs-like thing and sign this turd to a 4-year extension for huge guaranteed money.
The Bucs will then miss the playoffs for another 4 years due to the inconsistency and turnover liability of Winston.
We will have wasted the career of Mike Evans and much of Godwin’s early career. They’ll get plenty of yards, but just not wins and certain not playoff appearances.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:00 pm
BucsBandit
If the defense and ol improve, jameis will win… a lot.
If they don’t… no qb will win here.
December 4th, 2019 at 12:03 pm
More excuses upon excuses for a poor QB…”good” QBs overcome a teams weaknesses and find a way to win….This guy? All those weapons and an OL thats been together mostly, and healthy. He has everything on his side and still messes most games up. The money needs to go into maintaining the defense. Plug in any solid backup QB and this team will be better. Fitz proved that….
December 4th, 2019 at 12:31 pm
Buccerutter,
No true at all. It’s very likely that a QB that only threw for 75% of Winston’s yards but protected the ball better would lead to more wins.
Any NFL team can always improve in certain areas. The salary cap makes it impossible for any team to be dominant on Defense and dominant on Offense. Well balanced teams like that are extremely rare and due to a little luck, like new rookies or undervalued free agents over-performing their expectations.
Winston has a 1,400+ yard rushers in his first season and only won 6 games.
The Defense can certainly be improved but it may come at the expense of some Offense players, like losing Evans or Godwin. The team can’t afford to pay the top salaries of their best players if they continue to improve and have players play great. It’s the nature of the NFL.
This is why protecting the ball and limiting turnovers is even more important in today’s NFL.
December 4th, 2019 at 2:42 pm
So anytime he faces a good pass rush we can expect turnovers, poor decisions and a loss?
Doesn’t sound like a player to resign
December 4th, 2019 at 3:09 pm
Bucs bandit
They do make it nearly impossible to be elite on both offense and defense. However I am not talking about that. I am suggesting he needs a supporting cast that isn’t the worst in the league. You cherry picked his run game in his first year as if you should expect a ROOKIE to win a bunch of games lol that’s just irrational regardless of supporting cast. But since we’re there, he did have the 23rd ranked defense. They gave up the 7th most points. But you’re suggesting he should have won more than 6 games as a rookie. lol ok
2016- defense 10th rushing 24th 9-7 record
2017- defense 27th rushing 32nd 5-11 record
2018- defense 31st rushing 29th 5-11 record
For some reason you think he should be able to compensate for a terrible run game and defense. Not many qbs in history can do that especially a rookie. We just need average or even bad but not terrible as evidenced by the 24th ranked rushing game with a 9-7 record. Please find me any qb in the past 10 years with a 31st ranked defense and 29th ranked rushing game who did anything in this league. Don’t forget we had the worst passing defense in the league for most the season and a bottom 5 run game and ol that gave up nearly the most sacks in the league for most of the year.
Put a rookie on this team the past 3 years and he will fail. And I’m sorry dude, passing for less yards and not turning the ball over will not help you win when your defense and run game suck. HAHA That’s ridiculous.
By the way this year’s defense has given up third most points and we have the 22nd ranked rushing game. But I’m sure you’ll blame his turnovers. In this case, the chicken came before the egg. The defense and run game has vastly improved and look, we’ve won 3 of 4 games.
WE CAN WIN WITH JAMEIS. IMPROVE THE DEFENSE AND RUN GAME!
December 4th, 2019 at 3:10 pm
He went to the worst team in the league in year one btw as evidenced by the #1 pick but you think he should have won more. HA!
December 5th, 2019 at 8:15 am
“…Carolina has done it with Gerald McCoy, who has as many sacks this season as Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh, Will Gholston and Beau Allen combined.”
Thats ok, what you fail to point out is our top ranked rush defense. That, and our pass rush, is what makes this D have real potential
December 5th, 2019 at 11:19 am
Bandit is ghost since i destroyed him.
NEXT….