Smelling An Upset
November 2nd, 2019
A guy who makes a living running football numbers senses that smart money will be laid on the Bucs covering the spread tomorrow, and perhaps the money line for an upset in Seattle.
Warren Sharp runs “Sharp Football Analysis” and is one of the top guys in the world of football statistical graffiti. Simply put, he just doesn’t like the matchups for the Seahawks.
Sharp, appearing on “The Lefkoe Show” podcast video below, Sharp said the Seahawks and their run-first offense and weak secondary play right into a trap with the Bucs.
And Sharp believes even if the Seahawks take an early lead, Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer just cannot stay away from the forbidden fruit that is running the football, even if Seattle is trying to pound on the league’s best run defense. This, Sharp believes, could allow the Bucs to pass their way back into the game or maybe even stretch a lead.
“They haven’t done anything enough to prove to me they trust Russell Wilson enough to throw the football enough,” Sharp said if the Seahawks. Sharp admitted the Bucs’ secondary is horrible but Schottenheimer, he is convinced, won’t test the Bucs’ secondary because passing is against his DNA.
“You can’t run the ball against Tampa Bay.”
You can watch Sharp explain to host Adam Lefkow why he’s bullish on the Bucs this weekend. At many sportsbooks, the Bucs are a 5 1/2-point underdog.
The Bucs chatter begins at the 36:10 mark.
November 2nd, 2019 at 7:48 am
Will have to see it to believe it.
November 2nd, 2019 at 7:56 am
The key is turnovers……always is.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:06 am
HA HA HA HA HA! GTFOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YEAH RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Bucs are MENTALLY DONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
…………….the bucs have the talent to be an 8-8 team but right now they’re shot mentally and they are thinking and playing at a 2-14 level.
It’s November and ALL BUCS FANS know is when it is November in Tampa Bay that the season is done and it is draft talk time.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:22 am
“Cover the spread” …. So, what youre saying is, when we upset the Seahawks tomorrow (your headline here)…. Were going to be 2-6. Awesome stuff.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:24 am
As much as I would love to see an upset. I also think this team is done. The fans no longer trust this team. The players don’t trust the coaches and the coaches don’t trust the players. Example when you have a 4th and 1 last week with the game on the line and your best players on offense are Evans and Godwin and you run Payton barber that says it all right there. They are mentally done and maybe they pull out a win for BA against Arizona and maybe get a win against a weak Atlanta team but that’s it 4 wins and a top 10 draft pick. It’s a Bucs life…
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:34 am
The Bucs SHOULD beat Seattle tomorrow. I’m not impressed with the Seahawks; they’re a run-first team. They’ve had a relatively easy schedule & have beaten the 6 teams they should have beaten … and lost to the 2 teams whose defenses are excellent against the run … the 7-1 Saints (#2 run defense) and the 5-2 Ravens (#3 run defense). And the #1 team in run defense? Yup, we got this.
Seahawks are a running team … 250 pass attempts versus 251 rushes. They’ve beaten the 0-8 Bengals (#32 run defense), the 3-4 Steelers (#15 run defense), the 3-5-1 Cardinals (#25 run defense), the 5-3 Rams (#13 run defense), the 2-5 Browns (#29 run defense), and the 1-7 Falcons (#21 run defense).
So the 2 teams they’ve lost to are 12-3 thus far this season & have great run defenses, and the 6 teams they’ve beaten are 14-32-1 this season & are average to very poor against the run. Seahawks run defense is average (#16) and their pass defense is meh (#27 in Passing Yards Allowed). But they beat teams by NOT MAKING MISTAKES. Only ONE INT & 7 lost fumbles in 8 games … 1 turnover average per game. But at the same time they’ve forced their opponents into 15 turnovers, for a PLUS 7 TO Differential.
So the difference in the game SHOULD BE the Bucs’ offense, assuming that our Bucs’ defense just continues to produce as they have been. If our offense turns the ball over and/or can’t sustain drives, we’re screwed. But if they minimize turnovers & control the TOP, Bucs SHOULD win.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:36 am
Bucfan81 Says:
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:24 am
…………. “The fans no longer trust this team. The players don’t trust the coaches and the coaches don’t trust the players”……..
—————————————————————————————
EXACTLY!!!!!!!
That 4th and 1 play was COMPLETELY PREDICTABLE
……….The WHOLE OFFENSE should’ve just held up signs before they ran that play that said “RUN UP THE GUT”.
…………….and Moron Leftsuck and Succo Aridiot are supposed to be good NFL coaches………………..???? huh????
I mean, how in God’s green earth could they both not understand that they were essentially telegraphing that play to the defense??????
I just don’t understand it………..it’s like they WANTED TO LOSE THE GAME.
It’s so stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
……….but that’s what it’s like being a bucs fan
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:40 am
Everybody’s 20/20 hind sight from the cheap seats is useless. On a 4th and 1 call run up the middle, many of you claim to have not wanted that call. On any play this can be done, being a fan, you can do that. I for one, do not have an issue with the call. Peyton went in right behind Market and Jensen. I’ll take those odds (as long as the pre snap read is there) all day every day. Watch that play and you will see Jensens foot slide across the turf. Where is the outrage for the turf, or the wrong shoes? Of course, I’m being facetious, the point is if you can’t trust our best two hogs and a hard nosed runner to gain 3 feet, who would you trust. Our QBack? Good luck with that.
In BA I Trust!
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:41 am
All you have to do is put in the tape
Look at the stats
A team just needs to throw the ball against a terrible secondary to put up points
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:43 am
@ Defense Rules
Bucs OC Moron Letsuck is the bucs #1 problem and Succo Bruce is making such a critical mistake trusting him.
Bruce Arians should just demote Moron Leftsuck to quarterbacks coach and Bruce take over as Offensive Coordinator
I think the whole offense have stop trusting Leftwich play calling but they just don’t want to publicly say.
Mike Evans actually said it last week but did name drop when he said that they were just not consistent enough.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:45 am
All they have to do is complete their passes like everybody else. Who has had to count on their run game against us? Can’t beat Tennessee and think we beat the hawks. In your dreams.
Seattle 30
Bucs 21
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:46 am
Yeah,
I for one won’t waste my Sundays anymore hoping they’ll play like a good NFL team……..
I’ll start being hopeful again in fall of 2020
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:49 am
And for those of you thinking this team is done, mentally out of it and don’t listen to coaches. Check the anger reported in the locker room. Where was it directed? At fellow dumb players, aka the secondary. If the receivers did make those mistakes, as advertised in multiple reports than this one is not on JW. I saw a different type of reaction from JW at the end of this game. He had fight in him. David/JPP being vocal, Coach Arians saying he didn’t have to say much to the team after the loss because ‘David said it all’ doesn’t sound like an issue between coaches and players. It’s a few dumbasses that players and coaches are rallying against. That is yet another sign of accountability. Not yet good enough to win, but one to change the culture and eventually get us there.
In BA I Trust!
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:57 am
@ Sport
You’re a Jameis Apologist……..just come out and say it.
But I’ll restate what a very long time sports writer from the Bay area said about this team during the week and he said there’s only about 8 players in that locker room that have the passion to win…
and all the rest of the players are just PAYCHECK PLAYERS…….they don’t have the passion or fire to win.
They’re in Florida…nice weather..nice locations…they’re very wealthy…shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!!!!!!
Why care about winning anymore???? and that’s part of the culture of this franchise………they’re a losing culture….bunch of losers.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:11 am
BucsAnthem … I’ve been as vocal as anyone that Leftwich needs to go. And no, not demoted to QB Coach, just needs to go. He’s not the answer & it’s hurting this offense & thus the team. Bucs have enough talent to win more games than they lose, but NOT with BL as our OC. Personally doubt that having BA take over as OC is the answer … he’s been the one overseeing BL’s game-plans and having ‘veto power’ as he says over what BL play-calls. The game may have passed him by as an OC (but not necessarily as HC).
Bucs have Harold Goodwin as Assistant HC & Goody’s got a pretty decent resume as OC. And (don’t laugh) but Clyde Christiansen may well be a better OC than BL. Spent 2 years as the Colts OC (2010-2011) … did well his 1st year, but really poorly his 2nd year (Colts were tanking for Andrew Luck it looks like). Curtis Painter (0-8), Dan Orlovsky (2-3) & a beat up Kerry Collins (0-3) as your QBs? BA took over as OC the next year when they drafted Luck (2012) & Clyde went back to being QB Coach … Indy went 11-5 that year. Besides, Clyde probably knows Jameis’ tendencies better than either BL or BA.
Sport … This team still has a lot of fight left in it. Take out having to clean up the mess from the offense’s turnovers, and the defense easily played good enough to win that Titan’s game. And I don’t personally think the Secondary as a whole has done that badly. but I am REALLY down on VHIII & MJ Stewart admittedly. If I was the Bucs’ coach, they’d both be riding the bench. I don’t believe in wasting snaps on players who won’t be here next year UNLESS there’s absolutely no choice.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:12 am
Anthem, appreciate your response. We’ve had our share of tourists on this team over the years. Much of it is based on desperation in trying to take a supporting role player and making them a star role on our team. See Alvin Harper.
If you’ve read my comments, including the last sentence in my first post this thread, you’ll see I don’t trust our QB. I have also stated numerous times JW = fools gold. Even though my opinion of JW is fools gold, it doesn’t mean his receivers didn’t hung him out to dry in this last game. It’s possible they did. However, I have seen enough from JW, including college, to know he is who is and that’s all that he is.
In BA I Trust!
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:15 am
Someone smells an upset? Hmmm, it is allergy season. Try Flonase or Nasacort. That will get your nose smelling the dumpster fire which is Tampa Bay.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:20 am
Oh they’ll be plenty of “upset” fans on JBF Sunday evening….the Jamyth tide has turned and some fans and writers will be swept out to sea hanging around a bit too long to #3 ~~~~~~
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:21 am
Just how the he|| can the Bucs stretch a lead when Jameis gives it right back to them on short fields?
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:28 am
Wtf
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:33 am
Wrong. Seattle will pass all over the Yucks and stretch runs with Carson will wear out a tired and frustrated Bucs D. Seattle 33 Bucs 22. Jameis 3 TD’s and 3 Picks.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:42 am
Well my fellow Bucs fans…. if you’ve been watching this team for awhile, then you know this is exactly the type of game we will win.
We choose to lose against lesser opponents habitually.
I’ll take the Bucs for the sloppy win 18-12.
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:57 am
A win tomorrow would all but assure another home loss next week against the Cardinals
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:58 am
Good news is it is not likely.
November 2nd, 2019 at 10:19 am
I’m not even watching this dumb azz game … Bucs about to be 2-6
November 2nd, 2019 at 10:22 am
As the late great Chris Thomas always said…NFL stands for
No Freaking Logic.
I would not consider the Bucs victory much of an upset. It’s the NFL and the teams are just too balanced. This is why as someone correctly pointed out…turnovers figure so much.
In close games kicking is also critical and I think….THINK…we’ve solved that problem.
D.R.
Agree with your observations as usual especially in the Defensive backfield. If the young guys keep improving we’ll be OK because I believe we now have the ability to pressure the QB.
A great story in this mornings paper about Devin White finally getting healthy and playing more to his ability as a difference maker. Let’s face it…no quick whistle after White’s tackle forced the “fumble”. If that TD stands the Bucs MAY have won and D White would be the hero.
One thing I really liked about that tackle was White showed how to clean a guy’s clock LEGALLY. You do not have to concuss a guy to force a fumble. Whitehead seems to get this principle as well. Nice hitter from safety and unlike Goldson and some of his predecessors his hard hits are not automatic 15 yard penalties.
November 2nd, 2019 at 10:55 am
Oh, yes, because I’m sure the inexperienced Pete Carrolll and company have not done any game planning for the Bucs. Sure, upsets are always possible, but consider that SEA knows everything in this article. And now look at few things. Wilson is the best their is at the deep ball. He will use it more often against this pathetic pass D. he need only burn the Bucs for long passes 3 or 4 times to doom them, and likely this is at the end of the game IF SEA is behind. Remember the mobile Dan Jones? Well, Wilson is much better. Whether it’s designed runs or escaping the pass rush on a broken play, look out. This team knows they are done for this year. Even these players are not that stupid. SEA at home with very much alive/likely playoff hopes is far more fuel than players who MAY be playing for their jobs next year, but where many of those will headed off the FA anyway. Arians already called the pass D after the Saints game weak and they responded by proving they were worst than thought…not once, but TWICE with London CAR and TEN. And Winston did not change his ways…only BA’s excuses changed. When a “trap” game is the only “hope” left, they are cooked. Anything is possible, but why pin hopes high for this only to fall even further?
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:00 am
Early in the season the skeptical Bucs fans were labelled as haters and are now proven to be absoutely right. Those predicting anything good, especially out of Winston are clearly in drug and alcohol rehab, or need to be. Posts supporting Winston or trust in BA are nothing more than frantic cries for help.
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:03 am
We going to see.
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:10 am
On paper it seems a Running Team vs. a great Run Defense is a mismatch that favors that Bucs. BUT…
These are PROS. It doesn’t taking a coaching chess-master to make a few adjustments.
Look for Wilson to have a breakout game passing with 300+ yards. They’ll make the necessary adjustments. I also look for them to roll-out Wilson more and even get him opportunities to scramble for yardage.
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:14 am
Our genius coaching staff needs to seriously consider using Perriman as a press corner on the line of scrimmage. Match him up against their number one receiver and let him lay out the WR each time. Its legal within the 5 yards. By accident he has shown the skills. No more catches if they are are pancaked on their backs. Then our head coach can truly claim ” the secondary is fixed”.
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:16 am
I’m a Pete Carroll fan but let’s face it he gave that SB to the Pats with his brain dead call.
He had two shots at scoring…first he should have rolled Wilson…had a couple of targets in the end zone and if they’re covered…Wilson either runs it in or tosses it away saving the Beast mode run if needed.
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:20 am
How many Buc losses does it take to realize that comfortably numb mindset?
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:27 am
Can Josh Gordon play this week?
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:29 am
The only thing I smell in the aroma of Arians BS and that odor is strong.
Peace, out
November 2nd, 2019 at 11:38 am
Bucs can get an upset. Seattle is not that good, 3 of their wins were by a total of
4 points.
November 2nd, 2019 at 12:22 pm
StPete … I’ve been really impressed with the GROWTH in this Bucs’ defense. And our youngsters (White, SMB, Edwards, Gay especially) are all keepers. I just wish they’d sit VHIII & let SMB, Dean & Ryan Smith get the experience. At $9 mil plus, VHIII won’t be with us next year. Why waste snaps trying to get him to improve? And if Jason Lichtweight had done his job & signed a veteran corner to pair with Carlton Davis, people would be praising this Secondary up & down right now. VHIII was never the answer. And neither is JL.
November 2nd, 2019 at 12:33 pm
I am here in Seattle for the game and believe it or not fans and local sports radio are very worried about losing to the Bucs. I couldn’t believe it myself. They are also worried “good Jameis” is going to show up. (Their words and insert snarky comment here). Plus the Seahawks next two games are on the road vs the 49ers and the Eagles so classic trap game. Like all of you, I’ll believe it when I see it, and then only when the clock strikes zero.
November 2nd, 2019 at 12:41 pm
The whole game really does come down to can the Bucs stop the Seattle run game. If the can, they win. If they can’t they lose. Simple as that.
November 2nd, 2019 at 1:01 pm
BrianBucs-
The game comes down to avoiding turnovers and getting turnovers
Win the turnover battle and your chances of winning are 65-90%, depending on differential
November 2nd, 2019 at 2:04 pm
Defense Rules Says:
November 2nd, 2019 at 9:11 am
And (don’t laugh) but Clyde Christiansen may well be a better OC than BL.
—————————–
Seriously dude, I respect your comments for the X’s and O’s of the game, but just how long have you been a Bucs fan?? Clyde Christiansen was a gd living offensive/stinkeroo disease for our Bucs. I will take BL over CC any day of the week plus Friday!!
November 2nd, 2019 at 3:42 pm
I have faith in Jameis. He’ll find a way to give it away and snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
November 2nd, 2019 at 4:14 pm
orlbucfan … Hey, I said don’t laugh. My point was that ‘Clyde Christiansen may well be a better OC than BL”. THAT’S how down I am on Byron. CC became the Colts’ OC in 2010 when they had Peyton Manning (his last year with them). They were 10-6 & went to the playoffs. Scored 435 points that year (tad over 27 PPG) … despite having 25 TOs, a meh running game & a low-ranked defense that surrendered 388 points itself (sound familiar?). Played a pretty tough schedule that year too.
Been a Bucs’ fan since 1982. And yes, had season tickets in 2001 when CC was a rookie OC. Wasn’t very impressed, but then again, he should never have been thrown into that situation (Les Steckel the year before had done great, and I’m still convinced that the Bucs’ offense whined continually because of his hard-core training methods & drove him off. IF true, that’s not exactly the offense that you want to hand over to a rookie OC. But oh BTW, they did make the playoffs that year. Are you holding your breath that the same will be said for BL?
November 2nd, 2019 at 5:41 pm
At the End Zone of the Seattle Seahawks is a flag with “12” to denote the 12th man that helps the Hawks go on to Victory. Tommorrow. that 12th man honor goes to Jameis Winston. Congratulations!
November 2nd, 2019 at 5:44 pm
While other teams have a “12” flag in their end zones to denote the crowd infuence in the victory, the Bucs will being placing “9” in their End Zone. This is big! The flag means 11 minus 2 (no crowd, and the play of Jameis L. Winston).
November 2nd, 2019 at 6:37 pm
Jameis is very due for a good game. But that doesn’t mean anything and the Bucs still need to move on from him.
November 2nd, 2019 at 7:11 pm
Lol and here I thought this was a fan website. Of course they can win. The only true unbeatable team they will face is the saints. Many of their issues are self inflicted and a rookie quarterback wont change that next year. Not enough players have a playoff type mentality and dont care win or lose so until that changes they will lose, you don’t see they guys with the desire to win AND talent making errors.
November 2nd, 2019 at 7:20 pm
As the game gets nearer the anxiety builds up. That could be described as mental illness after all of these years.
November 2nd, 2019 at 8:11 pm
Great pic!
I wonder if Jaboo is still smelling the Uber incident on that finger?
November 3rd, 2019 at 12:33 am
“I smell an upset”
Yeah, my stomach- after watching tomorrow!!
As if our turnover machine QB isnt bad enough, it seems the refs havent helped
Us much either
Guess they must have daughters