“Best Case” For Buccaneers
August 28th, 2019
Chris Simms weighs in
How good can the Buccaneers be this season?
Of course, much of that will come down to injuries across the NFL and how Bucs players respond to new and better coaching.
Joe thinks the Bucs could win nine games. Whenever you have that much offensive firepower on a roster (and a defensive coordinator other than Mike Smith), a winning season is always on the table. Does Joe see 10-win potential, well, Joe can’t go there.
Former Bucs quarterback Chris Simms says he is having trouble figuring the Bucs out. “I can see it going a whole lot of different ways here,” Simms said this week on PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio.
He thinks the Bucs are a “7-9, 8-8 type team.” Simms was clear that 6-10 is his bottom for Tampa Bay, and 10-6 and a playoff berth is the ceiling. Simms is higher on the defensive talent than Joe is.
Mike Florio, Simms’ cohort on PFT Live, thinks the Bucs are a pure boom-or-bust team. Florio can see the Bucs winning the division with Jameis Winston responding to Bucco Bruce Arians, or Florio thinks it will fall apart completely with a bad starting QB and a coach who already retired twice in a brutally tough division.
Fans polled at JoeBucsFan.com have steadily leaned toward the Bucs winning eight or more games. Vegas has set the line at 6 or 6 1/2 wins.
Let the games begin!
August 28th, 2019 at 10:06 am
6-10.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:08 am
4-12
August 28th, 2019 at 10:09 am
5-6 wins sounds about right to me. The worst offensive line will insure Winston will continue to struggle at times. Our defense will be improved but will still be only average to slightly below average. We have a rookie kicker who looks promising but may have issues as well. I hope we win more but I’m honestly just not seeing it…
August 28th, 2019 at 10:11 am
I get that predictions are fun and its what gets fans mad or excited, but with the exception of the Patriots season predictions for the NFL are a waste of time.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:13 am
I’ve been consistently
10-6 & Playoffs!
We open 6-0
August 28th, 2019 at 10:14 am
Schedule is brutal, NFL did Bucs no favors, but I’m an optimist and gonna go with TURRIBLE coaching last year, along with kicking issues, I’m going with 10-6, we will win at least 4 division games, the other 3 will be against Rams, Jags and Colts, that’s 7, the other 3 will be battles but we will come out victorious.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:17 am
So, basically, they will win some and lose some.
Got it.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:21 am
All this talk about the schedule is BS. They have a bye right in the middle of the road games. 10-6…
August 28th, 2019 at 10:23 am
It’s gonna be a three pete; 5-11 and a new QB with that high draft pick.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:25 am
7-8-1 and PUSHING playoffs in a STRONG division. Jameis throws for 4,200 33 tds 14 ints.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:26 am
Buc’s starting out the gate 6-0 Todd i want some of what your smoking brother.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:27 am
I’d like to sees develop an identity early this year. Something we can count on. We haven’t had that since Monte was here.
Potential candidates:
Bend but don’t break defense. (remember that gem)
Balanced offense – aka we can beat you regardless if you try to make one dimensional
Those two would be nice. We are not at impose our status on offense, however in defense we might be able to pull that off.
Go Bucs!
In BA I Trust!
August 28th, 2019 at 10:29 am
Correction. We are a impose our will team on offense, however on defense…
In BA I Trust
August 28th, 2019 at 10:29 am
Bruce isn’t gonna start from scratch year 2. He might as well retire now. This isn’t madden, kiddo. 🤣🤣🤣🤣😆😆. I’m sure you can get Mariota as Winston’s “emergency” 3rd string backup next year when he’s released. 🤞🏼🤞🏼👍🏼👍🏼😆😆
August 28th, 2019 at 10:30 am
NOT an impose your will…. Ok, bad day on the keyboard. Back to spectating.
In BA I Trust!
August 28th, 2019 at 10:32 am
8-8 till they find help at RG and RT.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:34 am
I think they win 6 to 8 games. I would guess more if they had an NFL OL.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:35 am
Before the Cleveland game, 8-8
After that game, 3-13
August 28th, 2019 at 10:36 am
If you can’t run the ball, consistently, you can’t impose ANYTHING on anyone. The Bucs rely TOO heavily on Jameis on both sides of the ball. Bruce will find a way to alleviate some of the pressure and subsequently minimize mistakes. Baker , Dan, Trubisky, and Wentz are TRASH with 30+ attempts. Give Jameis ANY of those teams and they are better off. PERIOD!! coming from the BIGGEST Eagle fan. Objectivity is LOST on remedial football fans. I blame c.t.e. 🤣🤣😁😁
August 28th, 2019 at 10:36 am
Dak
August 28th, 2019 at 10:38 am
No record predictions from me, but I won’t be surprised if we make the playoffs and get to the NFC Championship game.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:42 am
5-11. Jameis benched by Week 9.
Winston traded for a 4th round pick.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:43 am
I have the Bucs anywhere from 0-16 to 16-0, my gut tells me they will wind up somewhere in that range.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:44 am
LOL @ Bonzai.
The only NFC Championship we will be making is on Xbox.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:49 am
8-8 & that is turning the corner…..
August 28th, 2019 at 10:50 am
Best case scenario for the Bucs is to trade Jw3 to Indy!!!!!!!!! they might be able to get a second round pick!!!!!!!!!!!!!! other wise Jw3 will be injured an miss multiple games!!!!! Joe and the sheep will say what a mess this team is without jw3, though it will not be much better with the game manager qb!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please stop putting ridiculous words in Joe’s mouth. Thank you. –Joe
The most exciting part of the season will be all the excuses and coaches blaming players this season!!!!!!!!!! I would love to see Chris Simms pick which 6 wins are for the bucs this season!!!!!!!!! What a waste until that high draft pick is obtained!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
August 28th, 2019 at 10:54 am
BucBandit. Yeah 5-11 with Jameis benched at week 9 sounds right lol. Gtfo
August 28th, 2019 at 10:55 am
7-9
August 28th, 2019 at 10:55 am
so far, jameis has not been responding to Arians
August 28th, 2019 at 10:57 am
Bonzai has got to stop hitting that bong so hard. Brain cells are at a minimum.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:58 am
We better tank for Tua.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:59 am
8-8 Bucs finish strong and franchise Jameis and look to be a really good team in 2020
Too much stacked against them in 2019
New offensive system with a first time play caller
New defensive system
Vea, David and JPP injured
Offensive line is a liability
Rookie Kicker
Questionable running game
Awful schedule
Lot of rookies in key spots MLB and Secondary
No cap space to improve the roster
August 28th, 2019 at 11:03 am
Oline will be horrible meaning the running game will also be bad. 7-9.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:19 am
19-0. All the way. Why not ? I can still dream before reality hits like a ton of bricks. Just like winning the lottery. LOL
August 28th, 2019 at 11:21 am
Coaching will make a difference???????????You wait and see??????????The OL will get stronger every game????????Question marks are way prettier than exclamation points???????????In a world of sheep and wolves be a sheep dog???????The running game will be a C hair better than average????????Jaboo will have a 35:15 year??????????
August 28th, 2019 at 11:28 am
10-6. OL was average last year whether you know that or not and it will not tank like you think. Not to mention run blocking will be a factor and our offense will be more balanced. Defense will finish #12.
We’ll win the wildcard game and then lose the divisional.
but the future will be very bright.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:40 am
MarineBuc
I’m with you…that sounds about right.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:43 am
6-10 and bucs are in Manchester by 2025, jameis traded week 4 to the colts for #1 pick and rights to a luck
August 28th, 2019 at 12:02 pm
5-11
August 28th, 2019 at 12:02 pm
Vegas is rarely wrong. That means 6, or 7 wins, and that feels about right to me.
August 28th, 2019 at 12:03 pm
pittsshore, Tua would die behind this line. He gets injured behind Bamas stellar line.
August 28th, 2019 at 12:19 pm
11 dash 5
Been saying this from day1
Go Bucs!!
August 28th, 2019 at 12:20 pm
5 to 8 wins
August 28th, 2019 at 12:24 pm
I have ALWAYS been a 16-0 guy, always!
Realistically, however, I have to say more like 8-8 with the potential to be 9-7. It seems optimistic but I truly believe that this defense is going to catch a few teams off guard. If we find balance on offense, and play average defense, 9-7 is attainable.
BUT……16-0!
August 28th, 2019 at 12:36 pm
I just don’t see tampa winning more games than 3 … gonna be a long season and a long off season
August 28th, 2019 at 12:47 pm
8-8 is obtainable for this team. A fast start though is essential. Winning 4 to 5 of the 1st 8 really would set a tone. Don’t know if they can do this though. IF..we can get thru Carolina and win the 2nd week, that would speak volumes.
August 28th, 2019 at 12:57 pm
9-6-1 🤷♂️🤫😂
August 28th, 2019 at 1:13 pm
11-5 After our first drive results in a TD and y’all see that Todd Bowles defense is legit you will get it.
August 28th, 2019 at 1:14 pm
Haha Rodney Allen.
August 28th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
10-6 with playoffs!!!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
August 28th, 2019 at 1:58 pm
Best Case – 18-0, w/ SB Win, LOL. Much easier to project “Best Guess” when we finally see starters against starters for 4-8 quarters. If 2-4 start, then 6-10, if 3-3 or better before the bye, 9-7 possible.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:06 pm
Thanks to eveyone who predicted 8-8 or better. I needed a good laugh.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:16 pm
San Fran 56
Bucs 3
August 28th, 2019 at 2:17 pm
3-13
August 28th, 2019 at 2:21 pm
7-9 and 8-8 is worst case scenario imo. Im hoping they make the playoffs, ofc, but if they are a bad team then they need to stay bad.
I dont want a season where we learn nothing about Jameis and have to start relying on franchise tags and prove it deals for him.
My hope for the season is either Jameis is great and leads us to the playoffs and earns the long term deal, or he is so bad its clear we need to move on and start over.
Anything inbetween just delays the inevitable which is bad for everyone
August 28th, 2019 at 2:22 pm
So, a numbers person thinks of best cast scenario in terms of confidence intervals. First, numbers people like to make assumptions. Before the season starts, Vegas puts out futures numbers through week 16. If you translate the futures odds into win probabilities, Vegas expects the Bucs to win 5.58 games (out of its first 15–no estimates yet for week 17). With an expected win percentage of 37.25%, a standard deviation of .1525 and a sample size of 15, the 99% confidence interval is between .27% and .47% win rate.
This result indicates that the Bucs have less than a 1% chance of winning 8 of its first 15. So, a reasonable (at least 1% chance) “best case scenario” is 7-8 after 15 games. So, let’s go back to the assumptions. The key ass ump shun is that the experts evaluations–of how good the Bucs and the teams we play are–are correct. Right now they have us as better than only two teams, Detroit and Arizona (and even with the Giants). We’re home underdogs to every team in our division and only favored in three games.
But what if the preseason evaluations are wrong? What is the confidence interval around the estimate of how good we are? Two really good defensive games (because defense is more consistent than offense the noodle will move more) and the futures odds will change dramatically. Even at 1-1, we’ll be seen as a near favorite to make the playoffs.
I’ll keep my spreadsheet going and in couple of years I’ll have a pretty good estimate for the probability of a team with a preseason over/under of 6.5 winning, 9, 11 or 13 games.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:46 pm
“Hodad, Vegas doesn’t set the line to be right or wrong. The line is set to get equal money on both sides. That insures that Vegas wins no matter what happens. So Vegas takes the public perception of teams into account. The perception of the Bucs is not very high hence the 6-6 1/2 win total.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:53 pm
You are right my friend, they set the line to make money, not lose it. That’s why they have them winning 6, or 7 games. They also go on past history, and back, to back 5-11 seasons says they should win maybe 6, or 7 this year. Go ahead, bet on them to win 8, or more, and lose your money.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:55 pm
BAHAHAHAHAHA
Love all the 9-10+ win predictions. You’re in for a long season.
Winston will be Winston and giveaway several games with his turnover-itis.
Our Defense will get TORCHED in the secondary, especially over the middle all day long. Our safeties are WEAK. Bowles will bring pressure with the LBs and there will be receivers open short/middle all day as well as short, inside slants.
Bucs will be LUCKY to win more than 5 games.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:10 pm
@Hodad, the over/under is 6 1/2 wins. If I bet the over the Bucs will need to win 7 games not 8 for me to win my bet. I don’t know where you get 8 or more from. I always put a hundy on the Bucs winning the NFC Championship. 35-1 this year. That’s the only bet I make.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:28 pm
Joe wow you are living on the edge. You see us as a 9 win team. But say there is no way you see us as a 10 win team. That is just a ridiculous statement to me. There’s now way you could see us pulling out one more game. Or stealing a game on the road somewhere. I see the bucs winning 9 games but no way they win 10 I mean them winning ten is crazy. But 9 is the magic number 10 is just unrealistic.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:28 pm
6-10 BA takes over offensive play calling by game 8.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:35 pm
Why do most of you enjoy football. If at the beginning of a new season. With a new offense and defense. Ran by proven coaches besides leftwhich who will be closely monitored by Arians. Have no hope and think we will win 6 games at most and our qb will be benched. And include bahahahahaha likes it’s funny if that happens. It’s time to be optimistic and be hopeful. And think your team can win 13 games and go to the super bowl. It happens every year. The eagles and rams were just awful a couple seasons ago. They got new coaches and boom they are in the super bowl. You don’t have any clue what our offense and defense will even look like this year. Either does our opponents. We could be a top ten defense easily just by teams never knowing where the blitz is coming from. Are defense has been so vanilla the last couple of years that offensive players are telling our defense you didn’t change a thing this is the same defense we saw on tape. This is going to be an attacking defense that gets a lot of takeaways and pressure. And that leads to more wins
August 28th, 2019 at 5:19 pm
I think the funniest comment above was that Mariota will be Winston’s backup. Is that the same Mariota that WAS in the PLAYOFFS last year? I wonder what some of you are watching besides old Winston highlights from FSU.
August 28th, 2019 at 5:58 pm
11-5, this defense is far better than you guys are giving them credit for and our offensive line just needs a game or two. Then it’s on. Rojo will surprise some of you with big plays.
August 28th, 2019 at 6:10 pm
Mariota is a good man and average QB (as is Winston at this point). Hope Winston turns the quarter and eats the ball when he has to and realize he is but a piece of the overall plan. Hope Mariota overcomes his brittle/china doll rep and plays a full season. Otherwise, both QB’s will be back-ups next year.
August 28th, 2019 at 6:41 pm
For so many reasons predicting any NfL teams for this particular year is so TOUGH! One thing for sure thou would be how Bucs will match up within their own division and With Breez aging, Cam’s injury and Matty’s unproved offensive line, why can’t Bucs be in a toss up to win the division. We have NO IDEA about any of their defenses either bty! Tough call to make right now!
August 28th, 2019 at 9:20 pm
Assuming the offensive line doesn’t get Jameis killed, they’re a 7-9 or 8-8 team, mainly because the defense is going to get shredded by all the great QBs we play and that awful schedule that has them away from home for nearly 2 full months, which is ridiculous. But on defense those young defensive backs are going to make some plays, but they’re going to get burned and burned badly a lot of times. That’s part of being aggressive, and I hope that they stick to their guns and stay aggressive since the worst thing they can do is get burned early then go into a shell and then the defense looks just like last year.
From a fans standpoints the same knee jerk morons as always will say everyone is a bust, everything is doomed, it’s all over, etc etc etc – but this has to be a growing year for the defense if there is to be any hope for next year.
On offense there won’t be any issues and I expect Winston to have a huge year so long as that line can give him at least some help. The Winston haters will of course, like always, bore everyone with saying every single incompletition is proof he’s a bust, but they’re just complete triggered dullards that always say the same thing.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:27 pm
I notice the haters scoff. That’s fine. Book mark this and see if you can make me eat crow. 😉
I don’t mind accountability.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:04 pm
4-12 is all I can come up with looking over the schedule…
August 29th, 2019 at 8:16 am
After watching our O-line against Cleveland I would say we’d better shop for more QB’s because all of ours will be injured by mid season. There’s still time to make some moves to shore up the talent but as of now we just looked horrible against what is admittedly a good D-line in Cleveland. Unfortunately we’ll face a lot of good defenses this year. 8-8 tops.
August 29th, 2019 at 12:48 pm
It’s all in Jamies hands/head 6-10 or 10-6
August 29th, 2019 at 1:29 pm
OK, I just looked hard at their schedule. There are a number of teams on it that have a shot to be legitimately bad teams: 49ers, Giants, Titans, Cardinals, Jaguars, Colts, Lions could all be awful. You never know, though. I find it hard to believe the Bucs win more than one division game and would not be surprised if they went 0-6. Rams and Seahawks will be prohibitive favorites. With injuries, it’s hard to predict. I see a ceiling at 8-8. If Winston gets hurt, they go 0-for-however many games he’s out. 5 or 6 wins seems about right, unless Bowles’ defense shuts everyone out.
August 30th, 2019 at 10:49 pm
Positive intent fellas. Positive intent. If you fill up one side of the pendulum with positive goodness and your other hand with negativity………………What do you have? A fan base that is shi_ for a fan base. So like I said multiple times in the past, if you are a true fan then you will always want it to “trend upward”………………………..or at least a true fan can only hope. GO BUCS 2019. After all, I got $2,278 bucks riding on it.
August 30th, 2019 at 11:00 pm
This season is “make or break” in regards to my season tix that me and the wifey have had since 2013. Prove it Bucs……………….just prove it.