Bucs Stats Say…
July 19th, 2019
Are 1,000 receiving yards coming?
Very interesting number-crunching on Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin.
Now we all know Bucco Bruce Arians has stated he thinks Godwin is a 100-catch guy per season playing often in the slot. One could reason if that is true, then Godwin could rack up 1,000 yards a season.
Whoa, Nellie! says Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com. While Smith confesses he’s a huge Godwin supporter, he can’t go along with that idea. No, Smith isn’t down on Godwin, he is just breaking down hard, cold numbers to reach his conclusion.
“… exactly nine percent of the offense ran through Godwin, and he used those opportunities to generate a very impressive 842 yards. His 14.3 yards per catch on 59 grabs was quite good and probably not fluky; he had a 15.4-yard average as a rookie, albeit on 25 fewer receptions. So if we figure he can duplicate that 14.3-yard average in 2019, he will need to catch 70 passes to get to 1,000 yards. …
“Godwin’s catch rate (receptions divided by targets) held almost exactly steady from his rookie year (61.8%) to his second season (62.1%). So let’s say he catches 62% of the passes thrown his way this year. That means he will need the ball thrown his way 113 times, as Carmen said. Last year’s offensive play total was a bit high, the third-highest in team history. Over the last 10 years, the Buccaneers have averaged 998 offensive plays per season, so let’s go with an even 1,000 plays as our target for next year. That also happens to make the math easy; Godwin’s targets would now need to account for 11.3% of the offense in 2019.
In short, Smith noted there are only so many footballs to go around on each play.
Joe figures tight ends might be targeted more than last year. That will likely take away targets from Godwin, as well.
While Smith may be correct, Joe still expects a monster year from Godwin playing in Arians’ offense.
July 19th, 2019 at 1:02 am
If he plays in the slot with Evans/Perriman on the outside, he could put up MONSTER numbers, way better than what Hump put up … this guy has legit talent and star potential.
July 19th, 2019 at 1:04 am
9% of the offense ran through him and he needs 11.3% … with MeSean AND Hump gone, the 11.3% is definitely possible.
July 19th, 2019 at 3:49 am
Running backs should be way more involved this year, also. That cuts his chances even more. I don’t think anyone should expect Mike Evans’ targets to be reduced. If Godwin matches last year’s output, it will be a successful season for him.
July 19th, 2019 at 6:12 am
He will be a beast in the slot..They will all eat out of the slot including Evans
July 19th, 2019 at 6:32 am
Great logic by Scott Smith & the point that there are only so many footballs to go around on each play is valid. But his 1,000 total plays given the present Bucs’ offense is probably a tad low, our run-pass ratio is lop-sided, and our sacks allowed are too high. It’s very likely we’ll see some significantly different numbers this year under BA, and that could very well make a big difference to a WR like Chris Godwin.
There were a number of fairly high-powered offenses last year and their total play numbers were pretty consistent. But how they achieved those numbers weren’t. Assuming that sacks occurred exclusively on designed passing plays, here’s what the Bucs & other NFC South teams did last year, as well as what the 2 SB-teams did:
Bucs had 1,055 plays (with 41 sacks) … 389 rushes (36.9%) … passing 63.1%
Falcons had 1,010 plays (with 42 sacks) … 351 rushes (34.8%) … passing 65.2%
Panthers had 1,011 plays (with 32 sacks) … 416 rushes (41.1%) … passing 58.9%
Saints had 1,010 plays (with 20 sacks) … 471 rushes 46.6%) … passing 53.4%
Patriots had 1,073 plays (with 21 sacks) … 478 rushes (44.5%) … passing 55.5%
Rams had 1,060 plays (with 33 sacks) … 459 rushes (43.3%) … passing 56.7%
The Bucs (and the Falcons) lacked BALANCE in their attacks (ran too little, passed too much). Result: losing records (and took too many sacks). Under BA’s leadership this year, I think Bucs will still have around 1,050 plays BUT … with better BALANCE. We’ll run the ball at least 40% of the plays (probably closer to 43-45% IF our OLine & RBs prove to be ‘better’ than what many expect). I also anticipate that our RBs & TEs will be MORE involved in the passing game than they were under Koetter. And as a team, Bucs will also allow FEWER sacks than last year (30-32 more likely).
IF that turns out to be the case, Jameis would probably throw FEWER passes overall on the season, probably in the neighborhood of 600 passes (after sacks subtracted), as opposed to 625 passes last season (Jameis & Fitz together). Anticipate that his completion percentage will RISE this year as a result of better design & play-calling, as well as Jameis maturing in BA’s offense. Last year he was at 64.6%; this year 67% or thereabouts is doable, meaning tht he’d complete right around 400-410 passes (last year Jameis & Fitz completed 420).
Out of those 400 or so completions (to ALL the WRs, TEs & RBs), it’d be a stretch IMO to expect Chris Godwin to get 100 catches (25%?). But I’d guess that 75-80 catches is doable if he’s used more in the slot receiver role. Should be an interesting year for him in any event.
July 19th, 2019 at 6:39 am
There is one variable not being considered…..and that is how a better defense will give the Bucs the ball more often…..therefore more plays……could happen & that would change the possibilities for Godwin.
July 19th, 2019 at 8:28 am
I think Godwin is also going to improve his YAC. If he’s healthy I’m on Joe’s bandwagon of Godwin exploding.
He’s past the sophomore slump and he’s going to get plenty of chances.
July 19th, 2019 at 8:59 am
@July Joe,
not only possible but probable.
July 19th, 2019 at 9:16 am
Humphries caught 23% of the passes Jameis completed last year.
That’s a lot of targets up for grabs, and it’d be logical to think the guy in the slot would absorb most of them.
Hump (78 targets from Jameis) and Mesean (37 targets) are gone, Throw in Jaquizz (21 targets)…….those guys combined accounted for 36% of Jameis’ targets.
That’s a whole lot of slack for a collection of unproven guys to pick up. Godwin is the only “sure thing” we’ve got behind Evans and OJ, which becomes a real problem if OJ can’t play a full 16 game slate once again.
We’re gonna miss Hump. We should have done whatever’s needed to keep that guy. Aren’t we paying Will Gholston roughly what Hump got paid? Madness.
July 19th, 2019 at 10:23 am
BucEmUp Says:
July 19th, 2019 at 6:12 am
He will be a beast in the slot..They will all eat out of the slot including Evans
BINGO!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!
July 19th, 2019 at 1:51 pm
I see Evans, Godwin, O J and Miller all catching passes out of the slot from the FAMOUS one! And I’m a firm believer that all of our receivers should at least know how to play in the slot (injuries do happen) GO BUCS GO FAMOUS GO SUHY GO XZAVIER UBOSI!! PS I like CB in the slot because he is a good route runner and knows how to get open..question is will Cam THE GREAT Brate make the team? Two bad hips …time to move came on!!
July 19th, 2019 at 2:02 pm
With DJax out of the picture, Godwin is primed to see more targets, but 100 catches is a pretty good stretch unless Godwin plays exclusively in the slot. Also if Perriman is a beast on the outside from the start expect to see him get a lot of targets, because we know how BA likes an Air Coryell offense. Personally I’d like to see us spread the ball around to the myriad of weapons we have. It’s less predictable and keeps defenses honest.
July 19th, 2019 at 3:29 pm
Perriman has never been a high volume type of guy. The big unknowns, the guys who really have to step up, are (possibly) Miller – but especially the guy nobody’s talking about – Watson. He should in theory be way ahead of Miller in the development process.