“Obvious” Hot Seat
June 3rd, 2019
“Jason, we need wins more than you need a new coat.”
Though Joe doesn’t necessarily agree with this notion, a well-plugged-in NFL writer is of the mind that Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht is sitting on a very toasty chair.
In a recent mailbag column on the site he oversees, theMMQB.com, Albert Breer was asked about the job security of NFL general managers. Breer replied there are only two general managers with “obvious” hot seats, and one was Licht.
Because only three teams have turned over the top of their scouting operations in the last 17 months (Jets, Dolphins, Raiders), there’s an assumption in the league that there may be a lot of GM openings in 2020. Maybe there will be, maybe there won’t.
The two management groups on the hottest seats are in Tampa (Jason Licht) and Arizona (Steve Keim). Both GMs just survived head coach firings, as Mike Maccagnan had in New York for four months or so. But outside of those two, there aren’t any obvious places where just the GM is in trouble.
Now yes, it looks bad for Licht in that he has a helluva lot more losses than wins on his resume. And yes, thus far, too many of his drafts have been empty. A lot of this could change this year.
If Noah Spence can be resurrected, if Vernon Hargreaves can be rescued from Bucco Bruce Arians’ doghouse, if the Bucs finally have an average kicker, those three things will go a long way in cooling down Licht’s desk chair.
Of course, it helps that Arians both trusts and wants Licht at his side. If Team Glazer decided to move on from Licht, would Arians then say, ‘I’m out,’ too? Arians has stated more than once a reason he came to Tampa Bay was Licht.
So while Joe can see where Breer is coming from, Joe isn’t as confident Licht’s job hangs in the balance. That is, barring another 11-loss season. Another double-digit season of losses could change things.
As former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter often said, “It’s a production league.”
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:25 am
#ToastyBuns
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:27 am
“ That is, barring another 11-loss season. Another double-digit season of losses could change things.”
If the Bucs lose double digit games we are possibly talking Licht and Jameis being out next year. So where does that leave Arians? His two biggest reasons for taking the job would be in jeopardy of losing theirs.
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:48 am
Was it his draft choices/free agent signings or the last coaching staff? This will be the year I believe
That question will be answered!
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:53 am
The caption on that accompanying photo should’ve had Joel Glazer adding … “No more freelancing Jason. Just do what BA tells you to do and it’ll all be OK.”
June 3rd, 2019 at 5:58 am
Jason seat is still warm from Koetters body heat…..
June 3rd, 2019 at 6:06 am
The combination of bad drafting, and free agency signings and lack of depth on
defense is not a good look for Licht. Drafting two corners and a safety again
this year will help fix the defense IMO. Add in a true MLB and the defense should
improve a lot with those moves alone.
Licht’s survival depends on the success of this and possible future drafts with the added imput from BA and Bowls.
June 3rd, 2019 at 6:07 am
Hot? How about ready to explode. There are ten 20lb bags of Kingsford under his seat soaked in lighter fluid and Licht is smoking a cigar.
He should have been fired with Koetter, but then again, we needed to be laughed at for drafting another kicker just one more time.
June 3rd, 2019 at 6:09 am
Yea, what I read into this was that Arians, not Licht, will be the determiner of whether the GM is retained.
Licht’s lucky to have a job and everyone knows it.
June 3rd, 2019 at 6:14 am
Wonder if Jason had his pool filled in with concrete, for “luck?”
Defense–
My “detective work” comments are explained in the JPP article. I do not believe Charlie Chan would have hired me as his assistant.
June 3rd, 2019 at 6:32 am
There’s this article by the Bleacher Report talking about the best and worse move post draft this offseason. If you’re interested in it,once you click into it you’ll be met with a Big photo of King Suh on the cover page. When you open it you’ll see that move is the first one spoken of. Gose without saying it was labeled “a best” move. Clearly the type that has a seat cooling effect about it.
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:03 am
Yah. Arians is keeping Licht safe.
Even if they are 8-8 or worse and Arians wants to stay another year , so does Licht.
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:10 am
I am all for keeping the core together. Saying that, when I heard Jason come out after the draft talking about players like Noah Spence (whom I had/have high expectations for) VHIII & C. Davis, are better suited playing in a 3/4 Def, I was confused. You drafted those guys for Mike Smith’s defense, didn’t you? Were you expecting (hoping) those coach’s to be fired? Did you pass on players that were better options for Dirk’s staff? I know you take the “Best Player Available” but shouldn’t that player at least fit your scheme? Lets hope for your sake those players perform better for BA. The fans here deserve to watch winning football AGAIN! Good Luck BA, we’re hoping you’ll bring out the best in Jameis Winston and OUR Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Go Bucs!!!
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:18 am
There are many players who need to show value.
In particular, VH3, Spence, Davis, Rojo, Cappa, Benenoch….along with Bunting, Dean & Edwards……
It would be nice if Gay works out.
Licht’s job is tied directly to BA….
The only way to fire Licht would be to promote BA to GM…..although he probably wouldn’t want that….he has an army of assistant coaches that he is very loyal to and I suspect he would want to keep them employed.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:00 am
The only way Backstabbin’ Jason Licht should keep his job is if the team manages to win more than they lose.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:06 am
The Glazers need to sell the team to someone that knows something about football. The Glazers do not care if we win or lose as long as they make money. They don’t know if Jason Licht is doing a good job or not. Hes just their toy store manager. Malcolm new what was going on a lot better than his spoiled kids.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:12 am
We won’t win until we get a proper gm
This guy doesn’t have it in so many levels
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:15 am
NFL.com just released a study on NFL franchises all time franchise QB. They chose Brad Johnson over the clown show Jameis Winston. Hahahahahahah
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:19 am
It is frequently reported that Licht played for U of Nebraska, but that is only half- true.
He played for Nebraska in ’89 and ’92.
Then he finished up his collegiate career at DIII Nebraska Weslyan (’92 and ’93), the scourge of the American Rivers Conference. Enrollment 2,100.
Perhaps this explains his predilection for drafting DIII no-names?
With a background like this, it’s no wonder that Jason was destined for NFL greatness!
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:28 am
We need to keep BA and his disciples around for as long as we can. This is the 1st REAL coach we have had dare I say since Chucky. Lovie had the blessing of a Bears front officer that made it idiot proof for him.
The only person I’d even consider for GM at this point is Louis Riddick. That guy is going to get a GM job sooner or later.
I hate fantasy/hypotheticals, but I’d let BA take over GM and he can run this show long after he’s done coaching
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:30 am
Tatoodonny & TBBF … Excellent perspectives; thank you both. Personally I don’t see either BA or JL as being on a ‘hot seat’, UNLESS the Bucs totally implode this year. For whatever else the Glazer Boyz are, they’re shrewd businessmen, just like their daddy Malcolm was. BA is their entry into the Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont Stakes, and they’re shooting for the Triple Crown.
This franchise was an absolute mess last year … management, coaching AND players. Bruce Arians is THEIR GUY for the long haul (or as long as he chooses). BA came in with a PLAN to FIX THIS FRANCHISE, and that’s what we’ve seen unfolding since the day he was hired. The FIRST part of that plan was to surround himself with great assistant coaches … that he’s done. The SECOND part was to evaluate, in detail, what he had to work with and decide what to keep, what to part ways with & what to bring in fresh and new … that’s just about finished (for this season), but not entirely.
The THIRD part has barely started … Train ’em up to be winners. It’s building a TEAM that performs on the field, not one that looks good in the showers but folds when the going gets tough. Right now & through training camp, he’ll be watching closely to see who buys in & steps up to the plate to excel, versus the wannabees. The 2019 season may well start off rocky (just like 1996 did in Tony Dungy’s first year when his Bucs lost the first 5 games & ultimately went 6-10) but once these guys start gelling on game days, they’d do just fine. Hopefully that doesn’t take very long, because Bucs fans tend to be VERY impatient.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:37 am
@JA … “My “detective work” comments are explained in the JPP article.” I’m still lost about your comment, but that’s OK, I get lost easily.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:44 am
10- 22 the last 2 seasons with your team in salary cap Hades. Enough said.
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:54 am
I thought BA showed some incredibly bad leadership skills when he allowed Gump to make those horrific draft selections.
If I were the Glazers, I would be seeking resumes for Gump and Bruce’s replacements.
Off topic, while perusing the LA Ram’s website, I saw something very disturbing. The Ram’s analytic team had found a rather obscure stat. Yards after contact for a college RB. Since 2014, Darrell Henderson was by far ranked #1 in the country. Despite, at 5’9″, being 2″ below ideal, DH averaged 6.18 yards after contact. 2nd though 10th place were well back below 5. Imagine, in the Kentucky Derby, a horse consistantly crossed the finish line before the pack finishes the final turn? Like the Rams GM, Les Snead, I would say that horse was a sure thing.
Of course, the Gumpster Fire was perusing Division 3 at the time and traded the 70th pick for two (magic beans) compensatory picks that Les Snead got for free.
If Gump or his crackerjack staff were paying attention, Snead had two better 3rd round picks in his pocket which he would have gladly given up for the best all around back in the draft.
No excuse for incompetence, Fire Licht Tonight!!
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:56 am
Cappa will probably be RG, Benenoch will probably be RT , except in obvious passing situations- this will help run game.
The Defense has speed and attacking scheme with emphasis on stopping run.
Defense will give up occasional big play, but they will get more turnovers as well.
Keep on doubting Arians and Bowles- you will be proven wrong
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:25 am
Too many bad drafts, bad signings and failures at building a roster to keep him after so much losing
Dude is awful at his job
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:29 am
Defense–
Should have stated “below” the JPP article, a comment or two below yours, I think …
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:45 am
I do believe the Bucs need to go at least 8-8 for Licht to keep his job. But with the Glazer’s you never know since they are pretty clueless themselves.
June 3rd, 2019 at 9:52 am
The new 2019 edition of Lindy’s NFL guide is out which rates every NFL team’s drafts. If you think Licht picked another poor draft with BA at his side, think again. We got a B plus which was the same that the Falcons got and both the Saints and Panthers got a B. Last year our opponents did better than we did. So Licht, with BA’s help, is actually improving! He was a novice when he started as our GM. His experience as a scout for the Patriots was not a plus because they draft a lot of players who have to be developed, and until now we have not had coaches that can develop players while Licht has been here. He had to wait a year to bring in his scouts and the next year his best scout got whisked away to be GM for the Titans. As long as BA is picking with Licht we are going to be keeping up with or passing our opponents in our Division with our drafts. Licht has been poor in the past in picking kickers but I bet this year BA consulted with his own kicking coach on who to draft and right now it looks like we finally got a keeper who can even nail long field goals. So lay off the Licht-BA team and just enjoy the ride as we become the surprise NFL Team of 2019! And I hope the Glazers will keep BA as their elder president of the Bucs even in his retirement years to educate the glazer owners to make the right decisions! Then just pick HCs from the BA line, and the success will continue.
June 3rd, 2019 at 10:43 am
After Lovie was fired Licht was in charge of football operations. Now Joe does know that Licht sometimes bent to the wishes of Dirk Koetter (Koetter all but demanded O.J. Howard even though the Bucs already had a damn fine tight end). How often Licht bowed to Koetter’s wishes is unclear but it seems more that a few times (Mike Smith keeping his job is Exhibit-B). Of course, it’s also unclear when Licht did get his guys through the last five years, regardless of the coach. –Joe
June 3rd, 2019 at 11:13 am
I’m skeptical that Jason Licht is on a hot seat at all this year.
I think how he handles the salary crunch next year will determine his status in 2021, but I think he is safe until after the 2020 season at least.
He played a key role in getting Arians. Arians had to have come in with the owners understanding it might take more than a year to turn things around. Otherwise he would not have come at all. And if that is the case, the Glazers know in advance that things may not get better right away, so Licht is safe.
Licht has had some pretty good drafts, outside of one. In a league where most teams average hitting on 33% or less of their picks, Licht has it on 50% most years when accounting for developmental time.
He’s failed miserably in initial free agency moves, but often followed it up with solid signings in the later parts of free agency (Nasib for example).
And his trades, while starting off small, have become very good, especially during the drafts.
And this is the first year cap has been an issue, but if you objectively look at things, he could have easily cleared up plenty of cap space if needed (the dead cap space is manageable).
No GM is going to be perfect in all phases, and for some reason fans (at least Tampa fans) always lack the patience these days for player developmental time, so they expect flashy hits all of the time. It’s flashy hits that fail 90% of the time though.
June 3rd, 2019 at 11:21 am
Bob in Valrico Says
“The combination of bad drafting”
Outside of one year, there have been no bad drafts. That’s a complete myth.
Question…if you go into a draft with 7 picks, and within three years, judge 4 of those picks to have been hits (great picks), then does it matter what round any of those picks were taken in?
Tom Brady was taken in the 6th round I think…was he a bad pick because he was taken so late?
June 3rd, 2019 at 12:11 pm
” then does it matter what round any of those picks were taken in?”
That is the exact problem with Gump. He will choose some crazy 6th rounder with the 2nd pick or pass up a great player for multiple picks way later in the draft. Gump will pick a good player (Vea) when an incredible (Derwin James) impact player is on the board.
Brady was a great pick because they achieved maximum value for him and they still got their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th ahead of him. Epic pick!
June 3rd, 2019 at 12:53 pm
Agree w Ghost!! Gump try’s to be tricky!! While all of the other GM’s ( maybe except for Keim) are laughing their asses off at Gump!! We will stay at or near the bottom til Meathead is squashed!! How in the hell did Gump and Keim get these gigs is beyond understandable!!
June 3rd, 2019 at 1:22 pm
How could he not be on the hot seat?
Losing Record + still too many holes on this roster (some of which have been there for years and years)
June 3rd, 2019 at 4:00 pm
Doubt it. He is more likely to get extended …
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:19 pm
Problem is, these Glazer idiot kids don’t know how to find a good GM. I’m not a Licht hater like so many. People think front office is ALL ON LICHT. Glazer kids have much to do with it. Idiot kids don’t know how to find a good coaching squad either until Jason’s boy BA says “Because it’s you, man.”
June 3rd, 2019 at 7:22 pm
We lose people every year and get no compensatory picks how does this happen?
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:03 pm
unbelievable
Holes doesn’t exactly mean bad players. We officially stacked a secondary and hired a secondary mastermind at DC. We still have one of the best receiver corps with who is said to be an offensive mastermind at HC. Trenches will very likely be stacked in draft and FA next year. Personally, I see this team on the rise if not big rise over the next few years if we can add some legit players.
And Licht just doesn’t go down ESPN’s draft board for picks. Entire coaching squad, especially HC, is involved (last good coach we had was Gruden and he’s said to not be a great drafter). They showed Bowles defense last year and he said WTF??? These guys in the draft look good for my scheme.
…We shall see
June 3rd, 2019 at 8:06 pm
*They showed Bowles OUR defense last year
June 4th, 2019 at 4:12 am
Bizarre that anyone would defend Licht or think he has any role or place in the league running personnel.
Here’s a thought Joe, if Jason Licht was a kicker and was for his first 5 seasons one of the worst kickers in the league (a la Brindza/Aguayo/Folk/Cantanzaro) would you question whether he should be replaced? Would you say “he just needs better coaching” or would you want his replacement by year 3? Jason Licht has effectively averaged a 5-11 season over 5 seasons. His last two seasons are literally 5-11 and had one pro bowl alternate selected to the game last season. There is no cap room. There is little reason to believe any specific player is going to come in and save the day. A blind man can see Jason needed to be fired last year. Why can’t one of the Joe’s?