Looking Ahead
June 19th, 2019
Columnist thinks it is over.
The draft has become an uncontrollable monster.
Look, Joe loves the draft. Everything about it. Except mock drafts. Joe hates everything about them.
Joe cannot stand how those things, once vital and treasured pieces of informed analysis, are now little more than parlor games like Yahtzee, Monopoly and Axis and Allies.
Come January, dudes change their mock drafts almost weekly. Mel Kiper likely changes his underwear less than he changes his mocks. Dammit, do a mock and stick with it. Otherwise, what the hell is the point and why should Joe waste time with such nonsense?
Joe has already noticed there are 2021 mock drafts (not a typo). Good grief, you know where teams will be picking and what players will be eligible two years from now how exactly? If someone is that much of a soothsayer, why are they not buying winning lottery tickets instead of fooling around with mock drafts?
If one does not strive for accuracy in their mock drafts, then what is the point?
Joe brings all of this up because Eric Edholm of Yahoo! Sports, clearly not a fan of America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, believes the Bucs will be drafting a quarterback in April 2020, even if Jameis is on the roster.
The addition of Bruce Arians gives Winston a chance to resurrect his career, which has gotten off course via inconsistencies on the field and off-field worries. That pretty much makes 2019 a make-or-break season as Winston plays on his fifth-year option contract. He could be set free if things don’t improve, but Arians might be able to coax some great play again from Winston, who showed more promise in his first two seasons than he did the past two.
It’s pretty much as cut and dry as that. None of the other quarterbacks on the roster can realistically be considered strong successors at this point. So if Winston fails to impress and the Bucs struggle this season, they’ll be picking high enough to be in quarterback range to consider them one of the favorites to go after Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert or another highly rated prospect at the position.
And even if Winston plays well enough, let’s say, to earn a franchise tag in 2020, it would behoove the Bucs to dip into the QB draft pool. You can be sure that Arians will be personally scouting a few of them almost no matter how this season plays out.
2020 QB draft likelihood: Moderately high
Yes, yes, we all know Jameis needs to improve. A guy walking around with a white cane can see that.
But “this Joe” doesn’t believe Jameis’ situation with the Bucs is as doom-and-gloom as many do, unless Jameis totally collapses this season. First is, who is available that would be better, Sam Bradford? Second is, Joe is going by the very words coming out of Bucco Bruce Arians’ own mouth, that he is not here for a rebuild.
If a team is drafting for a new starting quarterback, that, folks, is a rebuild.
And frankly (this is nothing against Edholm), drafting a quarterback to start even with Jameis on the roster is beyond absurd. Why would any team pay a quarterback $20 million-plus if you already have his successor on board?
If the Bucs want to rebuild, Joe is OK with that. But do it right. Don’t half-arse it.
If there is a rebuild coming, then rebuild. Completely gut this roster of everyone but Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, Vita Vea and Devin White who is making more than $2 million a year.
Then ensure the team loses no less than 10 games next year and perhaps more the following year, load up on draft picks and pray both that Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence declares after his junior season and that a team (unless it is the Bucs) is dumb enough to trade out of the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and ignore probably the best college quarterback since Peyton Manning.
If people want a rebuild — which many people seem to want because they cannot wait to run Jameis out the door — then do it right. Make sure you become the complete laughing stock of sports. It will pay off in the long run.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:05 am
And if the Bucs go 8-8 and end up with a mediocre pick? What happens then?
June 19th, 2019 at 11:09 am
Draft a defensive end or running back.
Whoops, that’s not right. This organization doesn’t believe in a pass rush and sure as hell doesn’t believe in running backs. Maybe draft a safety in the first round? Or another corner? Why not?
June 19th, 2019 at 11:11 am
I don’t buy that BA is scouting QBs whatsoever. He didn’t come here to dump Winston after a year and start a rebuild.
BA – Licht – WInston
Those 3’s fortunes are completely tied to each other IMO.
I mean seriously how in gods name could you justify retaining Licht if Winston busts. And then how do you justify keeping BA when he only came because of Licht/Winston. Makes no sense to me but whatever.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:12 am
Remember when people were saying Winston was the best QB prospect since Luck?
Sucks to have wasted a #1 overall pick basically
June 19th, 2019 at 11:14 am
Draft a kicker….
June 19th, 2019 at 11:16 am
If they end up 8-8 and feel they need a QB then they do what most teams are forced to do…trade away present and/or future draft picks to move up high enough to get their guy.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:21 am
I am rooting for Winston to succeed as it likely means the team is succeeding and won’t have to invest a first round (and possibly more if they need to move up) pick for a QB, but I am skeptical that he’s ever going to be consistent enough to trust. Then again I thought the Panthers were insane to resign Cam as were the Dolphins with Tannehill. Desperation makes you do bad things.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:22 am
i do agree with edholm to an extent…..winston did show more promise in his first 2years under lovie than his last 2years under dirk….
maybe it was because of the run game we had back then but under dirk winston regressed imo…..screw all the pass happy stats….winston made better decisions and looked more poise back in 2015….
with that said, i think winston will get back to looking promising under BA…..
GO BUCS!!!!
June 19th, 2019 at 11:23 am
Toes I agree. Without a stud to take JWs place you have to keep hoping the lightbulb in his head lights up. Either you hope he screws up again off the field – leaving you no choice but to abandon him – or you put your faith in him.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:28 am
@813bucboy
Lovie was here for Jameis’s first year
Dirk the last 3
June 19th, 2019 at 11:29 am
*in his first year under lovie
June 19th, 2019 at 11:34 am
@Loyal
Doesn’t really matter man. We were taking a QB in that draft no matter what given the state of the franchise and the obvious need there.
So even if we pass on Winston we take Mariota who has been worse and we’re in the same boat.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:48 am
Trevor Lawrence is not the second coming of Peyton Manning
June 19th, 2019 at 11:50 am
36 days and counting till TC.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:56 am
Did Joe write that?
June 19th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
If Fromm decides to enter the NFL draft, I believe he would be a good pick for the Bucs.. Not fond of Herbert but Tua would be interesting, if the Bucs are in top 3 picks…
June 19th, 2019 at 12:09 pm
The Re-build should have already happened.
June 19th, 2019 at 12:16 pm
For the record Manning had 81 INTs, 12 Fumbles totaling 93 TOs in his first four years.
Jameis had 58 INTs, 22 Fumbles totaling 80 TOs in his first four years.
Yet Jameis is a TO machine? If that’s the case then what’s Manning?
June 19th, 2019 at 12:24 pm
Manning is a hall of fame first ballot QB who has 2 superbowl trophys, a winning record and even a winning record in his first 4 seasons.
Jameis ” meaningless stats ” Winston is/has none of those things.
June 19th, 2019 at 12:35 pm
If they have a mediocre season there will certainly be a new GM in town. I see the logic in the Analysts comment. Jameis has not shown that he can perform at this level. He’ll be a journeyman QB the rest of his career following this year. Hopefully I am wrong, we’ll see. If he chokes this year he and licht have got to go.
June 19th, 2019 at 12:46 pm
Pete I as usual you missed the point. If Peyton was here the same people wanting to run Jameis out of town would have want to run Manning out of town. Knowing how that turned out should calm some of you folks down … but it won’t.
June 19th, 2019 at 12:53 pm
I love how people act like Jameis has been horrible when just flat out is not true. Has he been great, nope but to act like he has been horrible, or saying he has not proven he can play in the NFL is just ridiculous.
June 19th, 2019 at 12:58 pm
Ndog
In Manning’s first few years the league rules weren’t favorable to the offense like they’ve been for Jameis
Manning had a high amount of turnovers his rookie year which are skewing those numbers but he subsequently lowered the turnovers in year 2 from year 1
I personally don’t want Jameis gone, just want improvement and to see him learn from his mistakes. He still has stints where he looks like a rookie. Shouldn’t look like that after as much experience as he has.
Let’s stop comparing him to hall of famers and compare him to contemporaries who have progressed quicker and won more than him
June 19th, 2019 at 1:03 pm
NOT A REBUILD?
Dude, we just went 5-11. And we’re also in Salary Cap Hell. Of course this is a rebuild.
Enough of this nonsense about what Arians or Bowles “The Greatest Defensive Mind In The NFL That No Other Team Wanted To Even Retain” says.
Any new coach doesn’t speak of a rebuild out of simply optimism to sell tickets.
This team *IS* in rebuild mode. They’ve been perennial losers for many years, and now have Salary Cap issues after winning only 5 games.
We’re not going to go out and plug all the holes with 3 new draft picks or free agent signings and make a deep playoff run.
DOES ANYONE ACTUALLY BELIEVE THAT?
The Bucs ARE in the process of rebuilding. Winston is as good as gone just on SALARY implications alone unless he somehow leads this weak team to 10+ wins this season (doubtful).
You solve some of your salary cap issues (especially if you have a high pick) by drafting a QB that will play 4-5 years for 75% LESS than what Winston will cost going forward.
This team has LOTS of holes to fill and barely any Salary Cap space to do it… so we’re going to reward a very inconsistent and mediocre QB with a ~$30M/year salary ($10M/year MORE than he’s getting this season).
REALLY??? Is anyone that DUMB to think the Bucs Organization is going to actually keep Winston at this inevitable salary increase?
MARK MY WORDS… Winston is GONE. This is his Farewell Tour season on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
June 19th, 2019 at 1:11 pm
Bandit
As long as Licht is calling the shots Jameis will be overpaid
June 19th, 2019 at 1:30 pm
The only person I would replace Jameis with is Trevor Lawrence
June 19th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
Damn right we want a rebuild!!!!!!!! The sheep that will want the fold like a lawn chair qb back and franchised for almost 30 million, For What????? Last place in the division!!!!!! They want and need to see the gm who overspent to fix the trenches for years only to fail and be up against the cap???? and you want to see more of that????????? That is the definition of Insanity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shame that we have to waste a year just so the sheep can find out what many already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep,that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 19th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
Trevor Lawrence?
Hahahaha!!
I love how everyone always falls in love with a freshman QB every season who subsequently returns to earth soon after.
Kelly Bryant in 2016.
Jalen Hurts in 2017.
Tua in 2018.
Trevor Lawrence had a great title game. But most of those throws were to wide open WRs. Those don’t exist in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence. Please. What a joke.
June 19th, 2019 at 2:12 pm
Trevor Lawrence is not the second coming of Peyton Manning
Did Joe write that?
——-
It was written recently by one of the Joes that Lawrence was the best college QB since Manning. That’s hilarious by the way.
June 19th, 2019 at 2:22 pm
realist
wrong again as usual…..
The Buc Realist Says:
September 19th, 2018 at 6:47 am
Extend those contracts!!!!!!
after back to back 5win seasons!!!!!!….lol…..you gotta be kidding me!!!!!
thats the definition of insanity!!!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
June 19th, 2019 at 2:25 pm
Yahoo is literally fake news. Literally.
June 19th, 2019 at 2:27 pm
Guarantee rebuild next year. We have a lot of players due big money in 2020. Good teams have lots of average/above average/good players that can rotate well in a good coaching staff. Bucs have been far from it since Gruden. Jensen is gone next year. LVD has been my favorite player on defense for a long time but we need to trade for him because every year his stock dollar will go down like GMC (by the way, I don’t believe in that over 30 crap. LVD could still be crushing guys after he’s 35+ years old). Brate is gone whether this year or next. Dotson is gone whether this year or next.
2020:
1. Make a few big trades that can get us quality players (doesn’t have to be All-Pro) and picks.
2. Not a Jameis hater, but unless he himself shows up and takes the team to at least second round of the playoffs, his game can’t be trusted and that $30 million is so much more money in the bank. Draft a QB round one.
3. We’re officially stacked with good young talent in the secondary now. Depending on money in the bank or trade situation, find the best vet center possible and I’m not talking Jensen for $9 million. Maybe another good vet on the oline (once again, determines the money).
Depending on the running game this year, try to get some more early round picks and possibly get a RB and stack the trenches through the entire draft.
DAMINT JOE, now you got me on the Kiper 2020 plan before 2019 plan.
June 19th, 2019 at 2:50 pm
SNOOK – You’ve lost all credibility if you think Trevor Lawrence only played well in the title game and was only throwing to wide open receivers.
You need to go on YouTube and watch his entire year highlights. The kid is AMAZING. Strong arm, accurate passer, good decision maker.
Trevor Lawrence will be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft whenever he declares. He’s one of the top QB prospects of the last 10+ years.
June 19th, 2019 at 3:10 pm
Wow Joe, being a tad melodramatic today, aren’t we? COMPLETELY gut the roster of EVERYONE making over $2 mil/year EXCEPT for Vea, ME13, OJ and White? Really?
So let’s see … Bye bye Winston & Barber. Bye bye Brate & Perriman. Bye bye OLINE (D Smith, Marpet, Jenson, Benenoch, Dotson). Bye bye Pinion. And now for the coup d-etat … Bye bye JPP, LVD, Suh, Allen, Barrett, Gholston, Bucannon, Nassib, Ryan Smith.
So your version of GUTTING THE ROSTER is to commit hari kari. Nah, that’s not melodramatic. Insane, maybe. Disemboweling, certainly. But melodramatic? Nah.
June 19th, 2019 at 3:51 pm
All the signs point to 6-10 at best. New system on offense and defense, inexcusable schedule, and a roster with no depth and no capspace to fix it. Our QB will do just enough to prolong the agony and the gm will re-sign him just to make himself look like he knew what he was doing when he drafted him. Coach will retire again and Winston goes back to being exactly what everyone else knew he was all along.
June 19th, 2019 at 3:59 pm
Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:
June 19th, 2019 at 12:58 pm
Ndog
In Manning’s first few years the league rules weren’t favorable to the offense like they’ve been for Jameis
Manning had a high amount of turnovers his rookie year which are skewing those numbers but he subsequently lowered the turnovers in year 2 from year 1
I personally don’t want Jameis gone, just want improvement and to see him learn from his mistakes. He still has stints where he looks like a rookie. Shouldn’t look like that after as much experience as he has.
Let’s stop comparing him to hall of famers and compare him to contemporaries who have progressed quicker and won more than him
I am not sure what you people don’t get when a post these FACTS!
What I am simply saying is that Jameis is right there or on par with many of the QBs that went onto have great careers. Since most of you can’t seem to understand the point I will make it again.
The reason I always post the first four years is because that is the sample size we have for Jameis so we need to compare him to others that in his position like Manning, Luck, etc… You people want him to be what these guys are 8-9 years into his career and that is simply not realistic, especially with no running game, defense or kicker to speak of. And BTW Manning is the defenition of his contemporary as he was a number 1 overall pick and went to a crappy team and also Manning threw 23 picks in year 4 which is more than Jameis has throw in any one season to date. Again we are not looking at the complete version of Manning but the 4 year sample size we have like we have with Jameis. So again my point is all you smart guys wanting to kick Jameis to the curb or think he hasn’t proven he can play in the NFL would have said the same thing about a future first ballot HOFer. I’m simply pointing out how clueless people really are about football. Also if you want a more recent comparison Andrew Luck had one less TO than Jameis in his first four years yet everyone thinks he’s just great and Jameis sucks. So why isn’t Luck a TO machine and why doesn’t he have to “turn it around”? The narrative is ridiculously bias against Jameis and you can thank ESPN and so many of you have bought right in.
June 19th, 2019 at 4:42 pm
Franchise…..What signs? What are these signs that can accurately predict our win total. Please share. I’m sure it’ll be a good laugh.
Then you go on to say we have no depth which is the worst narritive being pushed by fans.
That’s cause the roster aren’t set and the depth part of it will be flipped this year. You are literally judging something that doesn’t exist yet when you say we got no depth.
All your predicts are hold little to no value. Awful awful comment.
June 19th, 2019 at 5:45 pm
If memory serves, the Packers drafted Rogers when Favre was still playing. The Bucs likely draft a QB in first round next year because the class is good and they don’t have be in top 5 to land a quality QB.
June 19th, 2019 at 6:01 pm
I’ve already watched 16 years of bad football, so what’s 2 more? I love the strategy Joe. 😃
June 19th, 2019 at 6:08 pm
Here’s something interesting. Terry Bradshaw was mediocre his first four seasons. Pittsburgh wanted him gone. Then came his fifth year and the rest is history. So Go Jameis and Go Bucs!!
June 19th, 2019 at 6:35 pm
Anybody comparing Jameis’ wins to other contemporary QBs is comparing apples to telephone poles unless their offensive line and defense are not better than hours.
June 19th, 2019 at 8:34 pm
i’m behooved…like seriously behooved that mel kiper changes his underwear like ever 8th day…that’s like trench warfare in his trousers…dam joe – you wild!
June 19th, 2019 at 8:37 pm
This team can’t afford to rebuild now, and I agree they need to redo it save for those players Joe mentions. If Arians is that good, use him what he’s supposed to do. But never throw games…or throw seasons. That’s not professional. But this team doesn’t have to though, especially if they dump the high paid non-performers, and those like Winston who will NEVER be the face of the franchise.
June 19th, 2019 at 11:49 pm
Here’s what I don’t understand about mock drafts…the criticism of them! To me, a true mock should be who the author thinks should go where, NOT trying to predict what the GMs will actually do. And the point of doing a mock so early (2021 for example) is to rate the players, get out some names to look for, and once that’s done, do some fun team building. I’d offer Joe what’s the point of writing about football now when it won’t be played till August? Because it’s fun…to speculate, to predict, to analyze. Except what early mocks do is arguably more interesting because the teams aren’t already set like August’s mostly is.
June 20th, 2019 at 5:05 am
NDOG,
You’re not sure why people don’t get when you post facts.
Seriously, you have no idea?
None whatsoever!
Really?
June 20th, 2019 at 7:25 am
Manning did not have the off the field concerns as Jameis has. I realize most fans just care about the game and could care less what he has done off the field. But I still believe on character and having someone the youngsters can look up too. But I guess I am in the minority.