Desert Juice
June 20th, 2019
BY IRA KAUFMAN
When Bruce Arians trudged off the field at Charlotte on Jan. 24, 2016, his heady run with the Arizona Cardinals was over.
The worst part? He didn’t know it.
It’s impossible to overstate the Arians factor when explaining why so many Buc fans enter the 2019 season with optimism. It’s the fact that Arians immediately turned around a 5-11 Arizona club upon his arrival in 2013 and went 34-14 those first three years in the desert.
If it’s all about Arians, it’s fair to ask what went wrong during the two mediocre seasons that led to his brief retirement.
You can start at the end, the brutal end of a glorious 2015 season. Arizona reached the NFC championship game, only to self-destruct with seven giveaways in a 49-15 drubbing by the Panthers.
Yes, on the brink of a Super Bowl berth, the Cardinals never gave themselves a chance.
A Catanzaro special
Still, there was no reason to believe the thrill was gone. In the offseason, Arizona engineered a smart trade with New England that brought in elite pass rusher Chandler Jones.
The Cardinals still had studs like Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson while Palmer remained an effective quarterback. Then it all came crashing down in the 2016 opener, a 23-21 home loss to New England. With Jimmy Garappolo replacing a suspended Tom Brady, the Pats held on when Chandler Catanzaro, yes, THAT Chandler Catanzaro, missed a 47-yard FG try in the final minute, partly due to a low snap.
“I think a lot of it goes back to the New England game,” Arians said. “Had we won the game like we should have, with the field goal, I think the whole season is different.”
Broken Limbs, Broken Draft
That setback triggered a 1-3 getaway, with the only win coming in Week 2 when the Bucs trailed 24-0 at the half and were humiliated by a 40-7 margin as Jameis Winston threw four picks and lost a fumble.
Arizona’s special teams turned out to be subpar and pass protection emerged as a major issue as Palmer was dumped on his rump 40 times. Despite a sensational 20-TD performance by David Johnson, Arians lost his knack for pulling out close calls.
Arizona went 2-5-1 in games decided by 7 points or less. In the previous two years, Arians was 10-2 in those matchups.
“I know for a fact we’re one of the best teams in this league,” said frustrated linebacker Deone Bucannon, now rejoined with Arians in Tampa Bay. “It just came down to maybe in certain situations we didn’t pull through.”
With those 2016 memories in mind, Arians has spent much of this offseason in Tampa talking about playing smart situational football to win the tight games. In the past two years, Buc fans have endured a 2-8 mark in games decided by three points or less.
The season opener also told the tale for the 2017 Cardinals, who saw Johnson suffer a fractured wrist that ended his season.
Palmer broke his arm in Week 7 and Arians watched helplessly as 15 Cardinals were placed on injured reserve.
But all the time, lurking in the background, the biggest culprit was a familiar one – the Cardinals drafted miserably during the final three years of the Arians regime. Even Arians couldn’t overcome the slew of mistakes at the top of Arizona’s draft board.
By the end of the 2017 season, he had seen enough. Health issues and family concerns were surely major factors, but Arians also had little faith he could once again resurrect the Cardinals in a hurry.
After a year in the broadcast booth, here he is at One Buc Place, declaring this reclamation project less of a challenge than the one he faced in Arizona.
Bruce Arians doesn’t need more confidence and he certainly doesn’t need more assistant coaches.
What he needs is the same juice he brought to irrigate the desert in 2013.
Enjoy TAMPA TWO with Bucs legend Derrick Brooks and The Sage, JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman, is back for a new episode diving into our beloved Buccaneers. It’s all presented by Caldeco Air Conditioning & Heating. And the great folks at The Identity Tampa Bay and Joe put it all together.
Enjoy!
June 20th, 2019 at 12:13 am
Joe-
Can you do an article on the o-line depth and prosects before we get to camp please sir? Specifcally highlighting the undrafted FA’s we picked up and under the radar players like Lidtke etc. who may have a shot to have a real impact and stick around this year.
Thanks in advance!
Go Bucs!!
Joe doesn’t do requests. Sorry. Joe just writes about what interests Joe on any particular day. Joe did write about center Nate Trewyn from the D-III ranks. https://www.joebucsfan.com/2019/05/another-d-iii-find/
And Joe had a story on guard Zack Bailey. https://www.joebucsfan.com/2019/05/hand-in-the-dirt-buccaneers-guard-zack-bailey/ Hopefully lots of the no-name guys will stand out this summer.
June 20th, 2019 at 3:32 am
Its hard to win in the NFL. Check
Injuries can derail a season. Check
The question of Are we better than last year? I say absolutely. BA and his staff will have a tremendous impact on this team.
Ira, I know you continue to be leery of the size of this coaching staff. Why?
BA has a large staff to properly coach each and every player on each and every drill and play from scrimmage. Repetition. In the watered down world of player/league rules, doesn’t this just seem smart?
In BA I Trust!
June 20th, 2019 at 4:19 am
Kudos Ira, an amazing piece of writing. And you’re exactly right … “it’s fair to ask what went wrong”. Deonne Bucannon answered it perfectly IMO when he said “It just came down to maybe in certain situations we didn’t pull through.” That statement by Bucannon got me curious though.
Every team gets blown out once in awhile, but successful teams break even on the close games as a minimum IMO. I personally define a close game as one that ends with a 4 point or less spread in the margin of victory or defeat. Breaking even in the close games (as a minimum), playing solid COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL (especially taking advantage of turnovers), and avoiding extended losing streaks are 3 key factors for successful franchises IMO.
The 2012 Cards under Ken Whisenhut went 5-11. SIX of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 3 wins, 3 losses. That team started out 4-0 then lost 9 in a row … bummer (for Whisenhut). Interestingly the FIRST loss came on a Thursday night game against the Rams AFTER having played a late PM Sunday game that went into OT (still don’t like Thurs night games). Cards never recovered. After beating the Seahawks 20-16 to start the season, the Cards were blown out by those same Seahawks 58-0 in Game 13 that season … wow. That Cards team actually had a very good defense … take away that 58-0 drubbing, and they gave up 299 pts in the other 15 games … 20 PPG average. Not that shabby. Unfortunately for Ken Whisenhut, his 2012 team only scored 250 pts. Not very good COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL either. Enter Bruce Arians & company.
The 2013 Cards under BA improved to 10-6. SEVEN of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 4 wins, 3 losses (better than in 2012 but not by much). The Cards defense for the season gave up 324 pts (20.2 PPG average … good enough for a #7 ranking in POINTS ALLOWED). The Cards offense exploded though, scoring 379 pts (23.7 PPG average). That Cards team played good COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL (Cards won 6 out of 6 games in which they won the turnover battle, but were 2-4 in games where they lost the turnover battle) and avoided any extended losing streaks (they only lost 2 games in a row once that season).
The 2014 Cards improved slightly to 11-5. Only THREE of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 3 wins, 0 losses. The Cards defense improved further that season, giving up only 299 pts (18.7 PPG average … good enough for a #5 ranking in POINTS ALLOWED). The Cards offense faltered however, scoring only 310 pts (19.4 PPG average). Still, that Cards team played solid COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL (the defense gave up 14 pts or less in 7 games … all wins … and the offense took advantage of turnovers forced by the Cards defense). They also avoided extended losing streaks (they did lose 2 games in a row twice that season however).
The 2015 Cards improved significantly to 13-3. THREE of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 2 wins, 1 loss. The Cards defense stayed roughly the same that season, giving up 313 pts (19.6 PPG average … good enough for a #7 ranking in POINTS ALLOWED). The Cards offense exploded, scoring 489 pts (30.6 PPG average … over 10 PPG MORE than in 2014). That Cards team played great COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL (offense turned the ball over a lot, but the defense bailed them out a lot too) and they avoided extended losing streaks (they never lost 2 games in a row that season).
The 2016 Cards fell back down to earth at 7-8-1. SIX of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 2 wins, 3 losses, 1 tie. The Cards defense wasn’t nearly that good that season, giving up 362 pts (22.6 PPG average … good enough for a #14 ranking in POINTS ALLOWED). The Cards offense slid back some also, but still scored 418 pts (26.1 PPG average … about 5 PPG LESS than in 2015). That Cards team played poor COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL however IMO (they lost 6 of the 7 games that season in which they lost the turnover battle … defense couldn’t compensate for offensive turnovers). They did however have 3 extended losing streaks in which they lost 2 games in a row that season.
The 2017 Cards was a rinse & repeat, and they ended with an 8-8 record. FOUR of their games were close games (4 pts or less) … 4 wins, 0 losses. The Cards defense stayed the same that season, giving up 361 pts (22.6 PPG average … good enough for a #19 ranking in POINTS ALLOWED). The Cards offense slid back a bunch though, scoring only 295 pts (18.4 PPG average … about 1 TD LESS per game than in 2016). That Cards team played poor COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL once again (they lost 5 out of the 5 games that season in which they lost the turnover battle … and turnovers forced by the defense really decreased). They did however only have 1 extended losing streak in which they lost 2 games in a row that season.
All in all, I was impressed that BA’s teams managed to avoid any extended losing streaks over those 5 years (his Cards never lost 3 or more games in a row). Looks like they also did much better in those years in which the defense forced a lot of turnovers, and winning the turnover battle looked to be critical to BA’s success. The Cards’ offensive production was great in 2 of his 5 years (2015 & 2016) but only meh in the other 3 years. Still, 49-30-1 in those 5 years with 2 playoff appearances is really very good. He’s a keeper.
June 20th, 2019 at 5:34 am
Defense,
If I can summarize, turnovers and turnover margin is the single best predictor of wins and losses.
The logical question that follows is, can BA reduce offensive turnovers and increase takeaways? If you answer yes to both, to what extent ? Is it possible to end the season with a 0 margin? Is it possible to have a positive margin?
Considering that Winston is #1 in turnovers and the Defense is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum, how much of that gap can BA close?
June 20th, 2019 at 6:58 am
“Defense Rules” said exactly what I planned to write here….
June 20th, 2019 at 7:44 am
D1 … I think that BA can get Jameis & the offense to reduce turnovers this year. After all, when you’re the worst in the league, it’s not unreasonable to expect improvement the next year as coaches focus on that aspect of play.
The bigger question to me D1 is our defense. Todd Bowles has a history of being aggressive, which I love. I’m HOPING that turns into a significant increase in not just turnovers, but also ‘pressure’ on the QBs (and on their OCs as well).
Last year the Bucs defense had only 6 turnovers in the first half of the season (4 of those in the first 2 games that we won BTW), but increased that to 11 in the second half. Interestingly 6 of those 11 turnovers came in just TWO games … our 2 wins in the 2nd half of the season. Four of our 5 wins came when we won (or broke even in) the turnover battle. Just as interestingly, we lost 8 games when we lost the turnover battle.
Overall Bucs turned the ball over 35 times on offense, while our defense accounted for 17 turnovers. That’s a BAD ratio. I’m confident though that the Bucs will improve on that by quite a bit this year under BA & TB.
June 20th, 2019 at 9:11 am
If this team can find a way to put 7 on the board instead of 3 in the redzone, and find a way to give up 3 instead of 7 in the red zone on defense, then they can be a winner.
The game now is built for most teams to be able to do almost whatever they want between the 20’s on offense. The best teams finish drives on both sides of the ball though. The days of games finishing at a 13-10 score are few and far between. Today’s game is designed to finish at 35-31, and kicking is more important than ever unfortunately.
Drives inside the 30 on offense have to come away with points. That factor alone has been the difference between a W or L at least 10 times in the last three years alone.
June 20th, 2019 at 9:14 am
the thing that BA brings to the table that dirk lacked is an identity…..the team will know their identity by the middle of TC…..bucs havent had an identity in 3years….we’ve had nothing to hang our hat on….
GO BUCS!!!!!
June 20th, 2019 at 9:24 am
He almost sounded like Lavonte David did when talking about losing focus in the “Tennessee Ready” game. A single missed FG in the first game derailed the season?
Really?
June 20th, 2019 at 6:03 pm
Excellent article Ira!
June 20th, 2019 at 9:08 pm
D-Rome Says:
June 20th, 2019 at 9:24 am
I think a lot of it goes back to the New England game,” Arians said. “Had we won the game like we should have, with the field goal, I think the whole season is different.
He almost sounded like Lavonte David did when talking about losing focus in the “Tennessee Ready” game. A single missed FG in the first game derailed the season?
Really?
————
Oh I think it can happen. Gramatica having and extra point blocked by Carolina in ‘03 derailed a potential dynasty. It’s a mental game as well.
June 20th, 2019 at 9:11 pm
Licht Weight and Steve Keim are cut from the same bar towel…probably decent scouts but in over their heads collectively. Here’s hoping Bruce can catch a few breaks and get this thing back on track. It’s been way too long.