Numbers Guy Picks Bad Bucs Numbers
May 19th, 2019
There are word guys and there are numbers guys. Rarely are people both.
Numbers guys look down upon word guys because they use words. Word guys scoff at numbers guys because they use that four-letter word “math.”
(Joe’s old man was one of the very few people he ever knew that was both. Joe’s old man was beyond anal when it came to the King’s English but refused to use calculators because they slowed him down. He once busted the IRS for a tax code calculation error on his business tax forms.)
Basically, word guys and numbers guys are oil and water. They don’t mix (Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report is one of the few).
As numbers people began to hijack sports, it started a firestorm with sportwriters.
Sportswriters are words people and numbers people do not like sportswriters because they make a living with, you know, words.
Joe brings this up because numberscruncher Mike Clay of BSPN put out the scores he believes will be the results of every NFL game this year. He’s got the Bucs winning a grand total of two games. He caught hell from Twitter about these scores and Clay shot back they were not predictions but projections.
To word guys, there is really no difference. To numbers guys, there is a big difference.
Wagging his finger at readers, Clay ordered them to instead refer to his “projections” for each NFL team’s win-loss record. It’s not much better for the Bucs, as he has them finishing at 5-11.
Again.
In recent years, Clay hasn’t been very big on Tampa Bay. At all. In some respects, Joe thought he was full of it, but you know what, feel free to document all the playoff games the Bucs have played in since Chucky was jettisoned in January 2009.
If the Bucs finish 2-14, it would not surprise Joe one iota if there is a total and complete housecleaning at One Buc Palace.
Early score projections for all 256 NFL games during the 2019 regular season: pic.twitter.com/wsaEnRYelE
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) May 17, 2019
May 19th, 2019 at 12:16 am
Since the schedule release, I’ve been sticking with 3-13…
a REALLY GOOD house cleaning is what they need.. GM to the water boy.
May 19th, 2019 at 12:38 am
This is by far the most idiotic thing I’ve ever heard of and ita not even close. Numbers guy can’t say it’s a projection if it’s based off numbers. If your estimating the offense will score less points that’s a risky bet and you can’t project how many points we’ll give up based on last year’s defense and that pretty much goes for every team except the Patriots because they are about the same year in year out
May 19th, 2019 at 12:40 am
Ya do the lotto for me next. Numbers cant predict injury. Or suspensions. Looks ike a 6th grade science project gone bad.
May 19th, 2019 at 1:30 am
You know in prior years I might’ve taken his analysis (or lack there of) very poorly and as a dump on our franchise.
But not anymore.
May 19th, 2019 at 1:38 am
If the Bucs go 2-14 I guess the 1st pick will be another QB. Time to take a much closer look at college ball and possible Winston replacements.
May 19th, 2019 at 1:42 am
The house cleaning NEEDS to go even further than everyone including the janitor at one Buc it NEEDS to include the owners. Until then we will continue to suck! The Glazers are starting to make Hugh Culverhouse look like a better owner.
May 19th, 2019 at 2:16 am
Hey the defense is only giving up like 25 points a game in these projections – so that’s a huge improvement!
May 19th, 2019 at 2:51 am
Put me down for the over in every one these these Projections. Including the Bucs win total. This is where I feel most comfortable with all the fans and media expecting for them to totally stink it up. Low expectations years are when the Bucs play their best. I believe in this coaching staff and I’m confident the Bucs will show a big improvement going forward starting with this season.
May 19th, 2019 at 4:15 am
I highly doubt the 2-14 prediction. I’ll lay all my money on the over on that bet. If they put the win total at 5.5 games, I’m betting the under! Until proven otherwise, this is a 5-11 team.
May 19th, 2019 at 5:16 am
What’s my mutha f***ing name?
May 19th, 2019 at 5:17 am
He did this last year.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/24522713/fantasy-nfl-mike-clay-picks-projections-2018-season-best-worst-unit-grade
I won’t pay to see ESPN material but Joe you must have this account as a cost of doing business. What was his Buc’s projection last year?
May 19th, 2019 at 5:17 am
It ain’t snoop mcplaybook
May 19th, 2019 at 5:18 am
Clean House
May 19th, 2019 at 5:23 am
Who is surprised by this?
May 19th, 2019 at 5:25 am
These in a nutshell were his projections for 2018:
“Clay has Jameis Winston going over 4,500 yards with 27 touchdowns, Ronald Jones being the team’s leading rusher with just under 1,000 yards, and Mike Evans going over 1,100 yards with nine touchdowns.
He also has the Buccaneers going 7-9 and finishing last in the NFC South yet again.”
Well last in the NFC South was correct…most everything else was over…So 2 wins might be high based on this guy’s success last year.
May 19th, 2019 at 5:33 am
Hmmm the genius has the Fins pulling a Cleveland perfect season from what I briefly glanced at (Looked like the Miami fitzpatricks lost on the weeks the Bucs beat AZ and the Giants)… I get finding negative stats on the Bucs to get people to read (Tommy Jones did that well for the SP times) but this is a bit of a reach guys. Its like making a prediction/projection on Vegas Over unders. I think Duemig would have called bullspit on this and Chris Thomas would have shrugged and asked Cleavis what he thought and got a better answer….
May 19th, 2019 at 6:19 am
Projections are usually based on recent data (other numbers). As all my old math teachers would say, “ Did you show your work”.
May 19th, 2019 at 6:23 am
If Bruce Arians only gets 2 to 5 wins with this team then im done watching until new owners come in. The only way a coach of Arians ability loses is if the entire ownership is worthless anf knows nothing about football, or cares
May 19th, 2019 at 6:24 am
Double digit losses is a given. The question is the number of wins. If the bucs come out the gate and lose to san francisco at home its going to be a long season.
May 19th, 2019 at 6:47 am
If we could avoid double-digit losses and go 8-8 or 7-9…..that would actually be a pretty good year for us. I don’t expect our real improvement to show up until 2020.
Setting lower expectations is a necessity for all Buc fans….it is the only way to survive.
I will predict that our defense is better and that our special teams are much better.
May 19th, 2019 at 6:53 am
Wow, look at the sheep making excuses already!!!!!!! What happen, it was all confetti and rainbows two and three months ago!!!!!!!!!! And does not the national media know that the Bucs hired “one of the greatest head coaches in modern times” just ask ole stale biscuit, he will tell you all about it!!!!!! Does not the national media know that the Bucs roster is just full of playoff talent, that is was just held back by coaches!!!!!!! Just ask the sheep and their reliable “eye test’!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its hard to believe that the sheep are now paving the road, and lowering the bar so low, that the Bucs can keep all the garbage and then suck in 2020 as well with all the same parts!!!!!!!!!! That is some plan Tampabaybucfan!!!!!!! Stay the course!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!! What a joke!!!!!! Wake up and smell the coffee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
How long????? Not Long!!!!!!!!! Because what you reap!!!!! Is what you SOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 19th, 2019 at 6:54 am
@Joe … “If the Bucs finish 2-14, it would not surprise Joe one iota if there is a total and complete housecleaning at One Buc Palace. Wow Joe, you’re starting to sound like some others who frequent JBF.com … wild, baseless predictions of what Armageddon will look like. Words like ‘total and complete housecleaning’ could be taken as meaning that EVERYONE gets fired and the Glazer Boyz start from a true Square One IF this franchise goes 2-14. Obviously we BOTH know that ‘ain’t gonna happen’. Being a tad melodramatic, aren’t we?
BSPN’s Mike Clay’s projection is about as useful to me as teets on a bull. The Bucs have already undergone many MAJOR CHANGES, in coaches AND players. We have, for the first time since Dungy & Gruden, a coaching staff will a record of good past performances. We’ve lost several pieces from last year’s 5-11 debacle (DJax, Hump, Kwon, etc) but replaced them with POTENTIALLY more productive pieces. We’re just at the very start of a major change in our defensive scheme. And BA has already implied that there’ll be more changes coming. There are bound to be growing pains during this MAJOR CHANGE … on defense AND offense … and the Glazer Boyz (owners & managers of a multi-billion $$$ enterprise) undoubtedly anticipate that (they’re a lot of things, but they’re not stupid).
So to ‘project’ that the Bucs will go 2-14 as Mike Clay did is as useful as teets on a bull. to ‘project’ as you did Joe that there’ll be a ‘complete and total housecleaning’ is melodramatic. Enjoy the ride … I’ll ‘project’ that there are LOTS more surprises down the road.
May 19th, 2019 at 7:05 am
They’ve done absolutely nothing to give any one a shred of hope that they are better than the last two seasons
So 4 or 5 wins is what I see until they prove it on the field
May 19th, 2019 at 7:09 am
Predictions are like anal sphincters… everybody has one.
Range of 7-9 to 10-6 is more realistic… depends on:
1) Jameis – no more than 12-13 interceptions for year
2) Improvement of Defense
3) Improvement of Running game
4) Improvement of Special Teams
5) Minimal Injuries
Every/any team that goes 2-14 will clean house
May 19th, 2019 at 7:14 am
Well…if we have a losing season, then we’ll need that first pick in the draft, won’t we?
But I don’t believe our season will be as bad as 5-11. It’s too early to even make a prediction…though I may not make one at all this year.
May 19th, 2019 at 7:36 am
Hell we don’t even have along term HC….wake me up when it’s over…if I live that long…I really feel for the few good players that have been playing here for a few year…ME in particular
May 19th, 2019 at 8:18 am
I don”t know how much I believe any of this at this point.
Good news – He says the defense will give up less points.
Bad news – He says the offense will score a lot less points.
May 19th, 2019 at 8:31 am
vegas uses similar math stats to get their o/u on wins, so im guessing this dude is close
May 19th, 2019 at 8:43 am
6-10.
Sorry folks, but this year’s Bucs aren’t going to be surprising anyone. Backstabbin’ Jason Licht has set this team back years.
May 19th, 2019 at 8:53 am
A coached convinced to unretire to save his loser friends job has
-Fix a #1 overall pick QB who makes bad decisions and turns the ball over at a Blake Bortles rate
-Fix a historically awful defense
-Fix one of the worst run games in the NFL
-Fix a special teams unit that has failed this team for years
-Fix an overpaid and underperforming offensive line
It’s unreasonable to think a coach can fix all these glaring holes in one offseason
4 or 5 wins maximum unless Brees, Ryan, both get injured for the season
May 19th, 2019 at 8:59 am
The Bucs should get 4 wins this year. Likely a meaningless win on week 17 will ensure that we get the #2 or 3 pick at best. Yes, we will even suck at failing.
May 19th, 2019 at 9:04 am
Loyaltotheend Section 312 Says:
May 19th, 2019 at 8:53 am
A coached convinced to unretire to save his loser friends job has
-Fix a #1 overall pick QB who makes bad decisions and turns the ball over at a Blake Bortles rate
-Fix a historically awful defense
-Fix one of the worst run games in the NFL
-Fix a special teams unit that has failed this team for years
-Fix an overpaid and underperforming offensive line
It’s unreasonable to think a coach can fix all these glaring holes in one offseason
4 or 5 wins maximum unless Brees, Ryan, both get injured for the season
.
.
.
..
remember when I said draft week…trade every pick this year for a corresponding pick in the 2020 draft ?….radical yes….get to the promise lan faster …most probably….especially when you factor in the handful of good players will be at the short end of their careers when the Buc make it at the rated we are going…..so 2 picks or more, in every round in 2020 sounds pretty good doesn’t it !
May 19th, 2019 at 9:11 am
A complete house cleaning would include the Glazer’s.
May 19th, 2019 at 9:28 am
Coaching is everything in the nfl. All players at this level are talented.
May 19th, 2019 at 9:32 am
I think two wins may be a little on the low side. I would say somewhere between 3 wins and 5 on the high side. If Arians can get 6 or more wins out of this team with all of these holes they should have a parade for him on Dale Mabry. As much as I think JW can be a franchise QB, they may just want to hit a total reset next year and use that top 5 pick on a QB. JW can go to a team that has a chance and the Bucs could use the money they save to start the rebuild.
May 19th, 2019 at 9:36 am
Since everyone already knows how few games the Bucs will win, why even play the season and risk injuring human beings for nothing. I mean instead of fighting for 2 wins that is a lock, why not just forfeit the season.
May 19th, 2019 at 10:04 am
Rayjay1122
It’s the offseason it’s time for opinions and predictions, get over yourself
We can start analyzing play when the games start
What have the Bucs done to improve a 5-11 roster? Put the pom poms down and look at the roster
May 19th, 2019 at 10:13 am
@Elita Vita Says: Why would you pick a QB when you do not have a line to protect him. Football 101 says build the trenches, build the D, build the receivers and then the QB. This team would have been so much better if they would have traded down instead of picking JW. Football is not a one-man sport. It’s a team sport.
May 19th, 2019 at 12:07 pm
The off season is here and is filled only with the most bitter emotionally scarred group of fans. Imagine if this site didn’t exist, ‘Shill Joe’ would be holding court at some watering hole, belly aching about this craft beer trend that will fade out soon and lament about working at some newspaper and how his editors just didn’t understand his genius….
I’ll take the good with the bad, at least we have Zack, who has single handedly raised the quality of reporting on this site.
May 19th, 2019 at 12:09 pm
Yeah Loyal I think that is what guys aren’t realizing. 5-11 last year and this team got significantly weaker in the offseason.
May 19th, 2019 at 12:51 pm
On the Twitter feed someone said I think u will get a few of these wrong n Mike said a few try alot of them will be wrong. Math guys know they cant put a number on everything like injuries suspensions n Aaron Rodgers last second hail marys
May 19th, 2019 at 1:02 pm
Some math guys think otherwise. Trust Joe on this.
May 19th, 2019 at 1:26 pm
Words, concepts, numbers, facts, intuitions … whatever!
There is a reason fans of all opinions think we have just much to say as any experts, pundits, Gms, analysts and sportswriters to have our say.
Football is an intricate game. There are a many factors that go in to building winning teams and winning franchises. Tangibles and intangibles make up any “equation” when predicting or projecting outcomes of a game or results for an entire season.
___________
I know it wasn’t an original idea for him but I never tired of Chris Berman reminding us over and over again “That’s why they play the games.”
__________
Go Bucs!!!
May 19th, 2019 at 1:31 pm
I never was a good typist. Age has not enhanced that ability. @#%! :-G
May 19th, 2019 at 1:40 pm
passthebuc Says:
May 19th, 2019 at 10:13 am
Some long standing ideas in football have been challenged at the college level in recent years. That challenge has arrived at the NFL level.
This is what I am hearing only very recently. I don’t follow college football that closely.
Hmmmmmm.
___________
Go Bucs!!!
P.S. One example was some recent remarks by BA on how prepared for the NFL offensive linemen when coming out of college these days.
May 19th, 2019 at 2:11 pm
Few thinga I don’t think the projections are considering:
1) New coach – it was clear the players weren’t developing the last couple years. I expect that to change.
2) New scheme – we had an historically bad defense last year. Most of the draft was focused on defense. I’m confident it will be an improvement.
3) Basing the prediction on past experience – See the two above. The only thing you have a chance at evaluating is the roster. However, the above two points show that even that might be flawed since our roster could have a square peg being jammed into a round hole (i.e. Mike Smith’s defense)
I’m guessing the bucs will be around .500 due to the ugly schedule. BA is going to have them competitive though.
May 19th, 2019 at 6:29 pm
The depth of talent is so poor we will be lucky to get 5 wins. I wouldn’t be surprised if we only won 2 this year as the Bucs haven’t addressed some key issues and are about to take a dump on the D-line. This team is a total dumpster fire thanks to Mr. Gump.
May 19th, 2019 at 7:15 pm
Numbers don’t mean bullSchiff. These nerds don’t know jack.
Football as its most base is fundamental mano y mano may-the-best-warrior-win.
The difference in net talent on all NFL rosters is minimal. It ain’t some video game.
The draft has been, is, and always will be a crapshoot. Ditto Free Agency, or worse.
Coaching is critical. Great talent with crap coaching won’t win, but middlin’ talent with great coaching just might.
This geek has the Bucs going 0-8 to start the season. Good Lord.
Fantasy football is killing the sport.
May 19th, 2019 at 7:18 pm
Cobraboy Says:
I was wrong. I missed the week 3 victory.
But my premise stands.