Bucs High On Suspense
May 13th, 2019
Drama King.
For one national sports voice with a big platform, there really is but one reason to pay attention to the Bucs.
And that is the NFL game show within a game that is the marriage of Bucco Bruce Arians and America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich playing the part of a go-between.
For hot dog eating contest-protesting, mock draft-scowling, L.L. Bean-wearing, Second Amendment abolitionist, Mike Florio-arguing, parrot-insensitive, chewing-with-his-mouth-open, soup-gulping, California train-romancing, anti-football proliferation, outhouse-admiring, airline-napping, steerage-flying, Yogi Berra-worshiping, urinal picture-taking, video game-playing, Taylor Swift-listening, pickpocket-thwarting, Bucs-uniform-frowning, Allie-LaForce-smitten, Big-Ten-Network-hating, pedestrian-bumping, olive oil-lapping, popcorn-munching, coffee-slurping, fried-chicken-eating, oatmeal-loving, circle-jerking, craft beer-chugging, cricket-watching, scone-loathing, college football-naïve, baseball-box-score-reading, NPR-honk, filthy-hotel-staying, fight-instigating, barista-training social activist Peter King of NBC fame, watching and paying attention to what happens between Arians, Leftwich and Jameis is the only reason to have the Bucs are your radar.
The rest of the team? Meh.
In typing a paragraph about each NFL club, King rates the Bucs at No. 29 and believes the team revolves around its offensive holy trinity.
29. +TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-11)
Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich with Jameis Winston. I like that a lot, mostly because of the drama. I have no idea what direction the Bucs’ offense will take, but I do know one thing: Winston will throw deep early and often. The biggest job for Arians, aside from trying to U-turn a foundering franchise, is the care and fixing of Winston, who couldn’t cure his interception bug in four seasons of Dirk Koetter’s tutelage. In fact, the only quarterback in the NFL since 2015 (minimum 1,500 attempts) to average more than a 3 percent interception rate is Winston—58 picks on 1,922 attempts, for a pick rate of 3.02 percent. Which means that, for every 100 passes Winston has thrown as a pro, just over three have been intercepted.
Joe thinks King is onto something here.
If Jason Pierre-Paul and Gerald McCoy are both gone, why the hell would anyone not from Florida tune into a Bucs game to watch the defense, which should be woeful, unless of course someone has a sick sense of humor. You know, like the same type of people who enjoy watching six-car pile-ups, like what Mike Smith’s defense was last year.
The NFL loves drama and it seems King can sniff it out.
May 13th, 2019 at 9:13 am
I am probably in the minority but I think our defense will actually be better even without JPP & GMC…..and Grimes…..and Vinny….
May 13th, 2019 at 9:25 am
@Joe
As I watched first hand the terrible Fire that burnt down Notre Dame in Paris, from the bridge Pont De Arts!!!!! I could fell the despair in the crowds around me!!!!!!!! The Symbol and Identity Just going up in smoke!!!!!!! I am really struck how not unlike the Bucs franchise is to that day!!!!!!! I start to wonder, which day will become “The Day” that the Bucs franchise has burnt and gone up in smoke!!!!!!!!!!!
The following day were amazing!!!!! The “realization” that now that they will rebuild!!!!!! that patch jobs and bandaids and reloads would not only not work!!!!! But that is not the “will” of the people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When will the higher ups in one buc “recognize” this!!!!!!!!! When will They put this fire and start the REBUILD!!!!!!!!!!! when will they gut those who are here with band-aids and patches get cut loose in favor of those who will Rebuild this horrid franchise!!!!!!!!! When will the local media start screaming for accountability for poor performance like they do when they do not like certain personalities????????????????? Can you smell the smoke sheep?????????????
2019 will reveal answers to the sheep, that the “real” fans already know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 13th, 2019 at 9:26 am
Go young across the entire D and change the mind set. The older players almost embraced losing as acceptable. How much worse can you get than last really? We’ve been 24th or worst for the most part the past 10 years
May 13th, 2019 at 9:32 am
4-12 seems about right and another top 5 pick is about normal for the bucs. This just feels like a richard williamsoneque era in Tampa and that was the lowest of the lows. Everyone says the bucs had bad coaching during Koetter’s tenure but then point to players like brate, barber, humphries, nassib as being great because of licht? Someone coached those players to get the most of those castoffs, could it be that the players on the bucs are just not playoff caliber players so the lousy GM is the main bulls-eye for this last place franchise
May 13th, 2019 at 9:35 am
I agree with you Joe, ‘Peter King is on (to) something’. That’s an incredibly lazy analysis IMO by someone who (supposedly) should know better. Yes Jameis has his ‘issues’, BUT … he cherry-picked stats to prove some vague point.
Yes, Jameis has an INT % of 3.02% in his 4-year career with the Bucs; not disputing that. But dig a little deeper and a different picture appears:
o 2015: 15 INT on 535 attempts … 2.80% rate (253 yds/game; 4.1 TD%, 4.8 sack%)
o 2016: 18 INT on 567 attempts … 3.17% rate (256 yds/game; 4.9 TD%, 5.8 sack%)
o 2017: 11 INT on 442 attempts … 2.49% rate (270 yds/game; 4.3 TD%, 6.9 sack%)
o 2018: 14 INT on 378 attempts … 3.70% rate (272 yds/game; 5.0 TD%, 6.7 sack%)
For his first 3 years, Jameis INT rate was 2.85%, but more importantly, it had come down significantly in his 3rd year. So was last year an anomaly, is it what we should expect from Jameis going forward? With BA & Clyde now guiding him, I expect that his INT % will come down to some type of an average QB range.
But look at those other categories (that I cherry-picked BTW). His yards/game has stayed relatively constant, and even improved a little. His TD% has increased by over 20% … THAT’S significant IMO. Especially considering that the % of times he got sacked ROSE by almost 40% from year 1 to year 4. That says something to me about
Jameis’ tendency to ‘try to make something happen’ and keep plays alive, but it also says something to me about our OLine AND Koetter’s tendency to go for long-developing plays. And oh ya, it also says something about not having a decent running attack, allowing defenders to tee off from the git-go, knowing it’d be a pass play. Things will change under BA I’m betting.
May 13th, 2019 at 9:40 am
Can you please exchange email addresses with NDog/O’Neil/87 and Florio…they’ll set him straight about Jamyth
May 13th, 2019 at 9:46 am
I’m so excited … McCoy will be gone soon woo hoo
May 13th, 2019 at 9:49 am
My belief is the coaches will make a big difference. They will put players in position to maximize their skill sets, something that Mike n Dirk failed to do. This defense will much improve from last year. I like the aggressiveness. The players drafted r true playmakers. We’re talking smash mouth Hardy Nickerson type defense.
May 13th, 2019 at 9:50 am
Western Athletic Conference action!
May 13th, 2019 at 9:53 am
He’s not a franchise QB. No one should embarrass themselves by comparing Jay-Miss’s numbers to other QBs that played in other eras like Manning or Marino. It was a different game back then.
I predict the Bucs will be 6-10. They have the worst QB , worst defense, worst backfield, worst secondary, and worst offensive line in the NFC South.
May 13th, 2019 at 9:55 am
At one point does the Peter King description go from annoying to really annoying?
May 13th, 2019 at 9:59 am
@tampabaybucfan… i think you are on to something. I think Bowles takes D from worst to middle of the pack, which is a big step.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:02 am
Defense,
Year 3 his attempts were way down that’s not improvement. His sacks were up because He holds the ball to long. Makes incredible plays often but has a tendency to throw up the field even if takes longer. His time to throw is near the top of league and he’s thrown from a clean pocket 83% of the time. 12th in the league. (Ck those cause I am pulling that from memory.)
Part of why his TD’s went up is no running game. Either he throws it or they kick a FG.
Numbers tend to go up when there’s one option. Plus the bucs finished top 6 in rz td passes per game. So if you’re pretty successful throwing and can’t run…what could that do to the stats..,,,..
May 13th, 2019 at 10:09 am
This is kinda how I feel every time I see a post from The Buc Realist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Despair, disbelief, shock, horror, and sadness are all feelings all of us feel when we read your inane ramblings about “sheep”. It’s disturbing to be honest with you.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:13 am
Agree with Tampabaybucfan and miken
And I don’t think GMC is necessarily gone.
They can come up with cap money in other ways
May 13th, 2019 at 10:16 am
Depends on your personal timeframe. Some people like it.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:18 am
Offense will be more dimensional. Defense will be less predictable. Special teams will be more consistent. Bucs will be better.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:29 am
There has not been any improvements on the bucs to be better than last year. This is going to just be a really bad year. It seems that arians (An Alabama Guy) is doing a secret tank job to go and secure the #1 pick and draft Tua. RB is horrible the OL is still terrible if not worse than last year, then you are expecting 7-8 rookies to help the team win on defense.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:30 am
Loss of McCoy makes the defense better.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:39 am
Just tells you the average fan is looking for names, don’t want a guy to make a name in the NFL they want him to come here with a big name. Guess we will see. I think BA can coach circles around Dirk with a bunch of undrafted even if Dirk had a super bowl roster
May 13th, 2019 at 10:40 am
Well up to this point Jameis has not lived up to the first pick in the draft. He has not even lived up to being a first round draft choice.
To see if he finally gets it in year 5 or finally shows everyone but Ndog that he isn’t a winning QB in the NFL, is about the only reason to watch the Bucs this year.
If BA can’t finally fix him, then he can’t be fixed. And if he can’t be fixed any Defensive improvement will be irrelevant.
Currently the “Best” QB in Buccaneers history isn’t even on track to make the Ring of Honor at Ray Jay.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:41 am
Read my lips. GMC is gone. Neep the cap space.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:42 am
4% td rate.
Just a bit of balance rather than the usual narrative.
Arians is way too old to pull any “tank for draft position” tricks. Silly.
Gonna be a good year, wild card at least.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:43 am
Actually d Rome, do a little research, manning had more picks un his first 4 years that Jameis. Manning actually had a defense on the other side. But go ahead and stuck to your trolling narrative about jameis.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:46 am
Realist.
Used to make sense.
🙂
May 13th, 2019 at 10:51 am
Aikman, Elway, Favre, Sims, Warner, Moon
All with higher career int % than Jameis.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:54 am
Pete…the D ain’t going to BE fixed..and Barber is our RB.
You’re right though…..that’ll be Winston’s fault, cause he can’t be fixed.
No running game and no D might lead to a lot of INT’s if you’re constantly chucking the ball up 40 times a game….yet no one ever factors that in.
That last part was for you Rastaman.
May 13th, 2019 at 10:54 am
Manning 81 int’s Whereas Winston had 58 in his first 4 years BUT Winston made up for it a bit by Fumbling 38 times to Manning’s 21 times.
Manning also had 2 winning seasons and two playoff appearences and was well on his way to a bright career.
Winston has had one winning season and is not even on track to make the Ring of Honor at Ray Jay.
So while Manning had more interceptions at this point in his career everyone believed in him and the future looked bright.
Not so with Winston.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:00 am
Defense Rules, that is some great analysis.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:03 am
D1, you do understand that when using percentages, the number of attempts does not matter, right?
5% of 100 passes would still be the same as 5% or 300 passes.
I think you are going out of your way to find flaws in everything today, lol.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:06 am
Pete I,
Using your numbers (because I am lazy), that means:
Manning 102 turnovers.
Winston 96 turnovers.
Winston is still ahead. Interesting.
I would also guess that Manning had a better overall team around him. Mike Evans is pretty good…but he’s no Marvin Harrison (did I remember his name right?). Not yet.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:07 am
Actually Bruce Arians believes in Jameis.
I believe Bruce was Manning’s first QB coach at Indy.
Not that he would know anything though……….
May 13th, 2019 at 11:09 am
Just to clarify, I’m not saying Winston is overall better than Manning.
I think the point was to point out that fans are being overly demanding.
If Winston had the same stats he has now, but the Bucs had 4 winning seasons to go with it, I don’t think fans would be so down on him over those turnovers.
Also, on a side note, a lot of his fumbles happened with his injured shoulder.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:09 am
I say with the way we drafted and the loss of JPP we almost have to keep GMC.
Unless we get a sweetheart deal – who are we actually gonna pick up that will be better than him??
13M is a large amount but Im not sure we have a better option at this point.
Looking back perhaps if we selected Oliver this wouldn’t be such an issue.
Not sure Im onboard with going forward losing 2 of our best DL.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:13 am
Except Bonsai that by this time Manning was a winning NFL QB and everyone believed in him,except for Ndog – of course, and and he was living up to his first pick status.
Winston is not ahead in very key stats – Wins – of course, living up to his first pick selection and far fewer actually believe in him.
But he did manage to best Manning at turn overs at this point, 4 years in. So he has that going for him. A footnote in the record book I suppose.
The “Best” QB in Buccaneers history isn’t even on track to make the Ring of Honor at Ray Jay.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:20 am
I’m sure BA believes in Winston (or at least thinks or says he does at this point) and that’s good. Winston needs BA to fix him. But the article is correct, the only reason to watch the Buc’s is either your a fan, or in the case of the rest of the country to see if Winston gets anything in year 5.
The “Best” QB in Buccaneers history isn’t even on track to make the Ring of Honor at Ray Jay.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:23 am
To be honest most people will still not tune into a Buc’s game to see the Winston drama. The rest of the NFL and most everyone else doesn’t care about Winston enough and if they do, its for the wrong reasons.
The “Best” QB in Buccaneers history isn’t even on track to make the Ring of Honor at Ray Jay.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:36 am
Different eras. You cannot compare the two. Like I said in my comment you are embarrassing yourself if you compare Manning to Jay-Miss or any other Hall of Fame QBs of the past.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:37 am
I may be in the minority, but a radical change in defensive philosophy and scheme, along with infusing speed at LB and DB, may make this Bucs defense substantially better than the weak, passive trainwrecks of the past. That said, losing JPP is tough, so next man up.
Even with a crap D, a scant running game and Winston throwing picks, the Bucs lost 4 games by 3 pts. or less in 2018.
And I suspect more roster moved before the start of the regular season.
I do not fully understand why Bucs casual fans think the sky is falling.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:53 am
It matters what teams a QB goes to.
Give a QB a bottom 3 defense, a bottom 3 run game, and they are not likely to have a winning record or great statistics. That’s been Jameis life basically outside of a fluke run game in 2015 and a fluke 6 game stretch of defense in 2016. But even in those years – 2015 our defense sucked. 2016 our run game sucked.
We have never been a balanced competent team in any year that he’s been here.
Even Aaron Rodgers has looked pretty sh1tty at times when his entire team sucks around him.
May 13th, 2019 at 11:55 am
The one thing that people don’t seem to see is that Todd Bowles plans his defense around the fact that he doesn’t have a premiere pass rusher. With that in plan he has loaded up on DB’s to cover longer. This will allow for pass rushing from the LB’s. This way you can mix up who is rushing and not be so predictable. This is what has made Wade Phillips defenses so go. Also this is worked for Dick Juron and others. Also not having the CB’s play off coverage but up with bump and run will allow for the LB’s to Blitz to manufacture the QB pressure.
This is the same plan he successfully used in Arizona with their quick rebuild.
Also bringing in some of the RB from Arizona who know the Offense is going to help learning the learning curve as well.
May 13th, 2019 at 12:06 pm
Bonzai,
Yes Sir, I understand the concept. But that’s not the reality or its not reflective of the actual activity. What you’re saying is 100% true but not here. INT’S can increase by 3 on 3 attempts or 3 on the next 100 attempts. The relationship between attempts and interceptions is not neatly packaged as it is in other areas.
There is an increase in the probability of the number of ints as the number of attempts increase. 3% appears to be an accurate baseline. The one year reduction coincides with a dramatic decrease in the number of attempts from years 1 and 2. Hard to ignore that relationship. The other is that winston has games with 0 ints and he’s had them with 4 ints.
I’f you add 100 additional attempts to the year 3 totals it’s more than likely that winston would hit a game with multiple picks. This based on past events.
Bonzai,
The point Defense made about cherry picking then proceeding along the exact same path is what I was pointing out. I don’t believe it’s necessary to find out of way or obscure stats to confirm what is painfully obvious. Since arriving in the league , winston is first in turning the ball over. To improve Winston has to reduce his turnovers. …Didn’t need to find a 3% rate to confirm anything for myself. And you don’t need it either as you’re pretty well dialed in,
May 13th, 2019 at 12:15 pm
D1 … I readily acknowledge that Jameis holds the ball too long, and has since his first start. That said however, his sacks were up ALSO because our 2017 & 2018 OLines stunk it up. Yes pass protection was better than run-blocking, but they still stunk it up. And we STILL have holes to fix.
Insofar as TD% goes, Bucs rushing TDs weren’t been very sterling from 2015-2018: we got 12 TDs rushing in 2015, 8 in 2016, 8 in 2017 and 11 in 2018. That’s not exactly setting the world on fire. His best passing TD % was in 2018 (5.0%), a year in which we scored 11 TDs rushing (2nd best year of the 4).
I agree with Cobraboy’s comment right down the line D1. There’ll be more roster moves before the start of the season (still FOUR months away). And like Cobraboy, I don’t understand why so many “Bucs casual fans think the sky is falling”. (And yes, I know you’re a lot better informed than the average ‘casual’ fan, me included). Let’s let it play out though and see what happens. Even if it ends up being a rebuilding year (it already is IMO), we’ll almost surely end up better off than we were when 2018 ended.
May 13th, 2019 at 12:32 pm
We all know Winston throws a great deep ball. Wait…….
May 13th, 2019 at 3:21 pm
OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!
its another famous REALIST REPOST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The Buc Realist Says:
June 21st, 2018 at 6:48 pm
Huge pass to the coaching staff issued by the “real” Buc fans!!!!!!!!!
GO Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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GO BUCS!!!!!!!
May 13th, 2019 at 7:59 pm
I think the Bucs will win at least 10 games. I’m with BA and don’t think it really matters if GMC and JPP play here or not. I think this coaching staff knows how to win whereas Dirp was constantly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Dirp was a bumbling fool. He rarely did anything right. I’m so glad the Falcons signed him again. That’s where I’d look for a 5-11 record, ATL.