Ugly Draft Facts
April 23rd, 2019
“Well Jason, at least we can’t pin those awful Cardinals drafts on you.”
If Team Glazer hopes Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht leans on Bucco Bruce Arians for draft knowledge, they may want to quickly revisit such a thought.
Joe has already documented the first-round picks of the Cardinals when Arians was their head coach from 2013-17. How much of an influence did Arians have over Cardinals general manager Steve Keim is unclear but for the Bucs’ sake, let’s hope it was very little.
Those Cardinals picks are a sorry lot. And word from Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic is the drafting of the Cardinals in later rounds wasn’t much better.
Draft fact: Of the 42 players the Cardinals have drafted since 2013, the start of the Steve Keim regime as GM, more than half of them — 26 — are no longer with the organization.
— Bob McManaman (@azbobbymac) April 23, 2019
This ought to make reasoned Bucs fans spit up their Corn Flakes this morning.
To be fair, in the “All or Nothing” series Joe has been documenting, that featured Arians and the Cardinals, Arians pushed Cardinals president Michael Bidwill to draft running back David Johnson. That turned out to be a savvy move.
One of the few, it seems.
Join Ira Kaufman and Joe at the annual NFL Draft blowout. Everything will get rolling at the South Tampa Buffalo Wild Wings around 5:30 p.m. All kinds of drink specials!! TVs inside and out. Buffet available!!!
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:07 am
How many do the Bucs still have since 2013?
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:14 am
Exactly, Bucnjim.
What percentage of draft choices, league-wide, are gone in 5 years?
Every year some 224 kids are drafted, plus undrafted. Those that stay push out those that were drafted. There are only about 1,700 roster spots.
What about young guys, like Beckwith, who get injured and leave the league? Is that the GM’s fault?
Joe, you’ve got to dig deeper, man.
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:16 am
What is the league average? We need some context.
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:16 am
“Lol….great pedigree
Our meathead Gump learned everything from meathead Steve Kiem
2 meatheads and a Kangoo does not make a right”
Kobe Faker
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:19 am
Googling how many players, on average, are still on a roster after 5 years, I found that 26 is right around LEAGUE AVERAGE for draftee retention. The Bucs, of course, were a little lower (24 in 2016), but the stat Joe relies on here lacks context and is far from the doom and gloom that this story suggests.
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:22 am
Jason best legacy move would be to trade every 2019 pick for 2020 picks….fast path to a great roster…IMO a complete overhaul coming in 2020…my greatest fear is the the Bucs play good enough to go 8-8 or 9-7 but still have as many question marks as they do now with GM & QB at the end of this season…hows that for happy thoughts !…reading Kobe’s post sent me into a downward spiral
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:24 am
4-12
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:28 am
Context. Context. Context. Come on Joe…..this number is around the league average….
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:36 am
Yet Kiem is still the GM……and so is Licht…..apparently, there’s more to being a GM than draft picks.
The draft is a crap shoot…..for all those begging for the Bucs to lose games to get a higher draft pick…..there are no guarantees.
Even with Arians’ record….I like his group of coaches…..and in particular on the defensive side of the ball.
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:53 am
Yeah their roster is not in great shape. Lost the defense / O-line basically. Still 10x better than Dominik at least
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:53 am
The Patriots only have 17 on their roster from those drafts. That ugly draft fact must be hampering their team as well…
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:55 am
Sounds like Keim May have been better with Licht (Mathieu)
Just like Licht was clearly better with Robinson
On their own …ehh… not so much.
I hope we get a 10 year stud player and pro bowler at 5
That is key. We cannot mess that up.
Another mike Evans type stud who deserves a second contract.
And can we finally hit on second round. Maybe we should move up to end of 1st just to put the kabash on another wasted 2nd round pick.
April 23rd, 2019 at 8:55 am
50% keep rate on draftees is not horrible imo if we are including rounds one through seven. Obviously that percentage needs to be higher if we are only considering rounds one through three. But what do I know lol?
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:06 am
How about an analysis of every team in the NFL to properly draw a conclusion?
Bad, unfair “journalism.”
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:25 am
This is the gm rankings
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001027372/article/nfl-gm-power-ranking-john-dorsey-kevin-colbert-rank-top-5
I think Jason came in a little high
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:25 am
What will the haters have to say after rojo and spence become key contributers this season and are part of the forst playoff birth in a decade.
ITS COACHING!!!!!
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:48 am
Someone wanted some perspective…when you look at it you’ll realize anybody slamming any NFL GM for a 50% success rate is just ignorant of the facts. In the first round alone the success rate drops rapidly and after that of course it keeps on dropping.
Here is the first round breakdown of success rate and pay special attention to the breaks…top 5 does significantly better.
1-5 77% success
Look how quickly and dramatically that falls!!!
6-20 51.4%
21-32 47%
If people didn’t get lost in the EXTREME example of failure…Aguayo…they’d realize that Licht has not drafted that poorly and in term of stats may actually be ahead of the overall numbers.
AGAIN…Licht’s draft success is not bad depending on the performance of ONE player…JW. You simply cannot waste the top pick in the entire draft where you have better than a 75% chance of success.
If JW finally becomes the “franchise QB” then Licht’s drafts will be fine. If JW fails…so did Licht. As the man once said…”It’s as simple as that.
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:50 am
BTW All this gripping about 2nd round picks is totally overblown.
Nobody argues that we haven’t had a lot of failures in the second round. But that sample size is not that large and there is a fundamental saying that comes into play.
Coincidence is not the same as causation. I would posit that the number of 2nd round failures is far more coincidence than some Licht curse on the 2nd round.
April 23rd, 2019 at 9:52 am
If rojo and spence become key contributors i will apologize for all the bashing. i doubt that is going to happen, these to guys should be let go to make room for decent players. I dont care whos coaching them, you cant coach talentless players and expect results.
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:02 am
BUCEMUP
i agree!!!!!!1
and i think thats exactly what will happen….
#REALISTKNOWSNOTHING!!!!!…GO BUCS!!!!!
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:18 am
The draft is a crap shoot.
Using hindsight you can make anybody look like a fool if you play the “could have had player x and you took player y”
It’s luck pure and simple.
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:50 am
Bucnjim Says
“How many do the Bucs still have since 2013?”
Jason Licht’s drafts can be found here:
https://www.joebucsfan.com/2019/03/clock-ticking-on-rojo/#comment-4119648
Essentially, Jason Licht has had three good drafts and one very bad one.
And just an FYI…Kwon cannot be counted against Jason Licht because he isn’t here. Free agents have a choice to move on, and they sometimes choose to.
But that’s not even an issue this year…
…because every move the Bucs have made this off season and every move they make this off season going forward is all on Bruce Arians. More than even his first year (under Lovie), Jason has been forced into the role of ‘Yes Man’. He has absolutely no say-so in matters right now.
Well, I’m sure he get’s the voice his thoughts…but Arians is in full command and makes every final decision.
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:55 am
AlteredEgo Says
“Jason best legacy move would be to trade every 2019 pick for 2020 picks….fast path to a great roster…IMO a complete overhaul coming in 2020…”
I’m not impressed by Arian’s moves thus far, outside of hiring the two female coaches, the dual practices he talks about and ‘some’ of the coaches he has brought in…but this suggestion you make is not a good one at all.
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:56 am
Joe, why are all my posts the last couple days moderated? Is it a server issue?
Because I haven’t said anything innapropriate that I recall.
April 23rd, 2019 at 10:57 am
Ah, that one went through fine. Must be the grammar marks doing it.
April 23rd, 2019 at 11:01 am
I’ve said it before
Licht is objectively OK in the draft / at least average. He is insanely better in the draft than Domink was, but Dominik was a bottom 3-5 drafter of the last 10+ years.
That’s the end of the endorsement though. He’s worked with some terrible staffs that had terrible visions, but that also means Licht doesn’t have his own vision for building a team.
If anything – the only thing we have seen him build is a pretty potent offense. But there has been no cohesive collective force behind building back up the defense in terms of aligning player acquisition with coaching philosophies/schemes/development to where it all comes together.
April 23rd, 2019 at 11:05 am
What if this whole time Licht has been drafting players to fit Arians system? Then he gets Arians here because they are good friends. This could be the case. Everything turns around in a year. It would make him look like a genius. well that is except for picking a kicker on the second round. Jason “ Hers your sign” for that pick.
April 23rd, 2019 at 2:43 pm
Since Jason took over we are 12th in the league for draft success rate.
April 23rd, 2019 at 3:02 pm
Lord Corn, Mark Dominik had 1 more win over Jason Licht in the same 5 season career. Dominik was rightfully canned after that run. The Bucs had one Pro Bowler last season as an injury replacement. Nothing about this roster is 10x better than during Dominik.
Licht’s best draft pick is Mike Evans. The only remaining player from Licht’s draft in 2014. Jameis Winston may or may not get a second contract from the team next season. If Winston fails to do so, that qualifies him as a bust as a top overall selection. Licht’s other notable hits are Ali Marpet, Kwon Alexander, Donovan Smith and OJ Howard. Of those 4, Kwon is the only one to make a Pro Bowl and the one that is no longer on the team.
Dominik’s best draft pick is Gerald McCoy. McCoy is a 6x Pro Bowler which means he has made more Pro Bowls by himself than Licht’s entire 5 year draft class has (Evans x2, Winston x1, Kwon x1). Dominik’s other notable draft picks are Lavonte David (1 Pro Bowl and 1 1st Team All-Pro), Doug Martin (2 Pro Bowls), Mark Barron, Mason Foster and Mike Williams. Dominik also traded a first round pick for Darelle Revis who made a Pro Bowl that year. That’s 10 Pro Bowls to Dominik to Licht’s running tally of 4.
I was no fan of Mark Dumbinik and long mocked Joe for his “Rockstar” nickname. But while “the Rockstar” wasn’t very good at drafting or being a GM, there isn’t any evidence that Licht has significantly outperformed him there. And we know Licht has wasted a ton more money on free agency. I’ll take the Bucs career of Vincent Jackson over any player Licht has signed in FA despite Licht having an open checkbook for his entire career here and Dominik having a year where Michael Koenen was his lone FA signing of significance when the Glazers cheaped out on him and the fans to finance ManU.
The idea that Licht is a draft guru is led by the same ignorant fans that used to think that Dominik’s “core” of McCoy-David-Martin was going to take the Bucs anywhere. Both objectively sucked for 5 seasons but only one has been fired for it.
April 23rd, 2019 at 3:28 pm
I linked to it, but it’s moderated, so here is the actual breakdown of Licht’s drafts:
Let;s get some perspective:
2015
• Jameis Winston – Good Pick
• Donovan Smith – Good Pick
• Ali Marpet – Good Pick
• Kwon Alexander – Good Pick
• Kenny Bell – Bad Pick
• Kaelin Clay – Bad Pick
• Joey Iosefa – Bad Pick
2016
• Vernon Hargreaves – Good Pick
• Noah Spence – Bad Pick
• Roberto Aguayo – Bad Pick
• Ryan Smith – Bad Pick
• Caleb Benenoch – Bad Pick
• Devante Bond – Bad Pick
• Dan Vitale – Bad Pick
2017
• O. J. Howard – Good Pick
• Justin Evans – Good Pick
• Chris Godwin – Good Pick
• Kendell Beckwith – Good Pick
• Jeremy McNichols – Bad Pick
• Stevie Tu’ikolovatu – Average Pick
2018
• Vita Vea – Good Pick
• Ronald Jones II – Unknown
• M. J. Stewart – Unknown
• Carlton Davis – Good Pick
• Alex Cappa – Good Pick
• Jordan Whitehead – Good Pick
• Justin Watson – Unknown
• Jack Cichy – Unknown
Keep in mind as well that most teams only hit on 2-3 picks a year. Jason Licht is above average.
It’s free agency where he hurts. But I would rather have a GM who can draft than a GM who can’t.
Mark Dominick was bad at drafts and below average in free agency, but he was a great pencil pusher.
Bruce Allen was average at Free Agency, Great at Cap management. Bad at draft (mostly).
Rich McKay had a couple good draft picks, but was no better than average at the draft, and that’s being polite. He was very good at free agency. Horrible at cap management (he kept pushing cap his back until it all hit at once).
Sam Wyche ran things himself I think…I don’t even know if he had a general manager. He was excellent in the draft, average in free agency, and cap wasn’t an issue back then…because the Bucs were always cheap.
So, essentially, Licht is the best we have had. Might not be popular with the haters, but it is true.
April 23rd, 2019 at 3:53 pm
Did you forget Licht was the GM for the 2014 Draft Bonzai?
Vernon Hargreaves is a good pick?! Based on what? Being the worst CB in the league his rookie year or is it missing all but 10 games out of the last 32 due to injury? What ON EARTH makes Vernon Hargreaves at 11 overall a good pick? The Bucs could’ve taken Laremy Tunsil, Karl Joseph or Keanu Neal, but Hargreaves is a good pick?
Kendell Beckwith’s career is basically over. He had a solid rookie year. But you’re counting a solid rookie year before injury ends his career as a “good pick” in round 3? I guess Cody Grimm was a good pick for Mark Dominik by the same standard. Except Cody Grimm was a SEVENTH ROUND PICK and not a third.
Alex Cappa is a good pick?! BASED ON WHAT. He was behind one of the worst guards in the league and has yet to start a game in the NFL or play more than a few series. When he has played he hasn’t looked good. What ON EARTH ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT.
Ronald Jones is unknown? Bonzai rates Alex Freaking Cappa a “good pick” but somehow can’t seem to find a way to rate a RB who had 1.9 ypc and looked completely out of place on the field as “unknown.”
MJ Stewart is unknown as well. Really? He’s a second round pick who was routinely burned in coverage to the point they couldn’t play him in the second half of the season and have now switched him to safety. Are we sure we don’t know anything more about MJ Stewart than we do Vita Vea who played only 2 more games than Stewart did last year? Also other than coaching hype, Carlton Davis hasn’t shown to be a capable cover corner yet. Not even close to the level of Dominik selection Jonthan Banks who had 3 INTs his rookie year and 4 INTs his sophmore year. By Bonzai’s standard Banks too was a good pick.
Quite the view into Bonzai’s mind though. Really….interesting….
April 23rd, 2019 at 7:08 pm
part of that turnover has to do with 3 coaching staffs in that tenure as of this offseason, some of those guys are playing elsewhere and doing okay
amazingly, about half the guys arians drafted when both Jason Licht and John Robinson were in the building for the 2013 draft are now buccaneers:
-kevin minter
-earl watford
-andre ellington
sadly, the 2 best guys from that draft – tyrann mathieu and alex okafor – got real money elsewhere. but it tells you how linked scheme and personnel are in this league, the guys who drafted them and coached them multiple years still want them while the wilks and kingsbury staff makes room for players they see as better fits